Scotland Indyref 2

I’ve read the act for that there European referendum. It’s amazing how little it says.
Now there might be some regs to go with it I’ve missed but I don’t think so.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/36/pdfs/ukpga_20150036_en.pdf – if you’re interested

Sorry Joe, got waylaid.

Ok, believe it or not, I am a Scotophile. As you know, I was educated (partly) in Scotland as was my wife and my son is studying there now too. So my views – even if they contradict with yours – are “straight” in terms of what I genuinely believe to be in the best interests of Scotland and the Scottish people.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind (and the majority of Scots 😉 ) that the best interests of Scotland and its people are served within the UK and within the EU (esp. under the terms negotiated by Cameron). Oddly (given the current chaos), after some time I believe that some solution will emerge that will allow this to happen still, but let’s park that for a moment and assume that we are definitely leaving the EU.

There is also absolutely no doubt (IMO) that the worst scenario is for an independent Scotland to be a member of the Euro Zone. Firstly, the Euro Zone is flawed in concept and execution and will collapse at some point. That is a given (I will explain another time why I am still on the REMAIN side – but you probably understand anyway.) Second, if I am wrong and the Euro survives, it will require a much higher degree of political union (perhaps complete) and I do not believe that is in your best interests. Third, I believe that the Scottish economy is more closely aligned with the rUK economy than with Europe’s.

So this leaves Scotland in a difficult position. The weakness of the economic argument has been exposed now. With the best will in the world, it would also take considerable time for and independent Scotland to fulfil the criteria for EU membership. So as much as Strugeon bangs the trumpet this is a very difficult solution to support (again IMO). Not only that but it is an age away at best.

Bottom line – I have considerable sympathy with the current strength of feeling. You voted for the UK to remain a part of the EU. That was unequivocal. Behind that, is the obvious underlying fact, that this means that you (probably really) voted for Scotland to remain in the EU (at least many of you – ok a large minority 😉 ). So its a bloody mess frankly.

So you are stuck basically. And this is where hindsight is a wonderful thing (or listening to Uncle THM).

In contrast to the EU, the UK is a highly successful economic and political union (that happens to meet the criteria for a single currency).

Until last week, the UK had a great deal in the EU. Most of the benefits of being a member of one of the world’s most important economic and trading zones but with fewer of its weaknesses – most importantly the Euro – and with the sovereignty of Parliament in tact despite what the BSers tried to pretend.

As part of the UK, Scotland has an increasing level of independence with devolved power and greater responsibility and ownership of key drivers, while enjoying the benefits of being part of a successful and functioning currency union, with a strong central bank and free and easy access to the RUK. As part of the UK you had the best relationship with the EU (like the rest of us).

What a F******** awesome deal.

And yet this has been thrown away. So where now?

Tell Strugeon to STFU for a wee while. The Euro is fu**ed – everyone knows that, the only question is the timing of its collapse.

By all means threaten the veto -if it holds water. Why? Because that is your only chance to come back to the solution that maximises the benefits to the people of Scotland while minimise the disadvantages ie, the situation that existed up until last week. Its a long shot and the NATS wont like it, but its the best solution.

It’s a bit of a mess, but don’t let flag waving and yS BS lead you into an even worse situation.

That is the ultimate folly and would make last week’s developments look sane.

aracer – Member

ISTM Nicola is simply reacting to events – where is her big plan?

You realise that they laid the groundwork for calling a new referendum- “a significant and material change in the circumstances in which Scotland voted against independence”- in their manifesto for the last elections? So yes she’s reacting to a trigger event but it’s a reaction that was long planned, and voted on.

…and will lead you into an even worse situation. Be careful what you wish for. If there is one lesson from last week, this is it…..

THM, thanks for that, to be honest, I don’t really have any great argument with it, interesting thoughts. As I’ve mentioned many times, I’m not a nationalist, so I won’t vote for independence for its sake alone. (I’m not going to go into why I voted yes last time, let’s just say recent events aren’t an eye opener, still surprising, but uk politics needs to take a long hard look at itself in many respects)

I can see the financial case for independence is challenging, but, I don’t think it is insurmountable. Despite the fears peddled about being isolated from both England and Europe, Scotland was never going to be isolated from either. (Evidenced just this week, by overtures from Europe about still wanting to work together in some way. Of course England would still have worked with Scotland, and scotland would have got in the EU.)

But, as I say, I’m not a nationalist and the more I think about it, I honestly see the scenario of Scotland remaining in the EU, under current terms, and remaining in the UK as being an incredibly strong position for Scotland, there’s a serious opportunity opening up tbh… Where Scotland is the gateway to Europe for England or some such.. I’m lacking in any detail there, but you get the jist. I guess this opportunity may also exist for NI and London. It’s is a much stronger scenario of Scotland being in Europe all by it’s own, and it will lead to greater scottish autonomy also.

I don’t think the veto thing will hold much water, it’s spurious. So Scotland needs another hand to play in these upcoming negotiations, which is of course, indy ref 2. Which will bring up a lot of emotion and it will muddy the waters a little, but it’s pretty much the only real card Scotland has in these forthcoming negotiations. So in that respect, if we want to go for the middle road prize, well, we need to be willing to use it, or westminster will drag us out along with you.

That ultimately will probably mean we need to be willing to head into the Eurozone, if indy ref2 is triggered and won (I believe it will win easily, both sides are unknown quantities now so it’s a fair fight, it wasn’t last time). The Eurozone, is not the preferred option, but I don’t really see it failing myself. Ever closer union, will happen, even faster now that the UK is out of the picture so I don’t really see the Euro failing in the long term. As I say that’s not the preferred option. I don’t really think there will be many people in Scotland that think it is, beyond pure nationalists, of which I am not.

Anyhow, I think that’s roughly where my thinking is at the moment..

Too late THM, I think the die is cast…

Btw you would also imagine that the UK having part of it’s territory still within the EU would be beneficial. Again, I’m lacking any sort of detail and working on instinct. But I finding myself questioning, why does democracy have to be a binary exercise? Surely we are more intelligent than that and we can come up with solutions to cater for all.

seosamh77 – Member

That ultimately will probably mean we need to be willing to head into the Eurozone,

This is an unsinkable rubber duck; it’s impossible for a newly independent Scotland to enter the eurozone, the entire mechanics of the euro forbid it, and to be blunt everyone with even a passing knowledge of the treaty of maastricht knows it. If we wanted the euro, THM would be first to tell us we can’t have it.

It’s “the worst scenario” for Scotland in the same way as the worst scenario for the UK is the one where it turns out we’re actually simulations on a computer in Mecha-Hitler’s lair.

seosamh77 – Member

Serious question though Thm, what is your honest view, if such a scenario could happen…. indulge me…. If Scotland retained the EU membership,

Scotland is not a member of the EU, therefore it cannot retain membership. 💡

Fair enough, then no euro(happy days), we would still be accepted into the EU, have access to the single market, free movement etc, fairly rapidly if coming to it from and independent stand point. We just set up a new currency pegged to something or other.

sbob – Member
seosamh77 – Member
Serious question though Thm, what is your honest view, if such a scenario could happen…. indulge me…. If Scotland retained the EU membership,

Scotland is not a member of the EU, therefore it cannot retain membership. It would if the sensible option prevails and England and Wales secede from the EU(not the UK), leaving the membership intact.

As much as I wish Scotland to be able to join/stay in the EU as an independant country (unfortunately likely without the £) there is the slight problem of our current budget deficit which as of 2014/2015 was 9.7% of GDP, this causes problems seeing as we would most likely need to meet the criteria to enter the eurozone which has a budget deficit entry requirement of no more than 3% of a country’s GDP, I simply cannot envision a case for the EU allowing an independant Scotland entry into the EU as this would most likely cause quite an upset with other member states.

Perhaps I’m wrong as I’m not an expert 😉 , I hope I’m wrong and there is a way out of this Brexit shithole for us if boris pushes the Article 50 button but that’s another discussion on another thread.

So could the disaster this week,and based on London’s position as well,see a more federal UK? Can mechanisms be put in for what is being referred to as a “reverse Greenland?” I am sure we all know by now what a vague piece of legislation A50 and is deliberately designed to allow wriggle room. Can there then be a case of what I read Cameron was aluding to last night?

sbob – Member
…Scotland is not a member of the EU, therefore it cannot retain membership.

As it stands, probably, but there are a few other factors.

Firstly the EU can be flexible when it suits its purpose. There are a number of reasons it may wish to have as a member an oil rich state with enormous fishing grounds, and waters that control a large part of the North Atlantic approaches to Europe.

Also when considering Scotland’s potential revenues, remember that large companies based in Scotland with their HQ in London do not have their tax revenue assessed as part of Scotland’s. That would change. As for the oil, it may be down, but we would be getting 100% of the revenue not a pittance.

One approach is if the EU recognises that the UK is made up of member states, and hence treat members individually. There’s a rough (very) parallel with the USSR and its empire, they were able to take individual states out of that into the EU.

So why not Scotland which already is in a group which is part of the EU and does not want to leave the EU? It all depends on how legalistic the EU wants to be or how much it does not want to lose chunks of itself. The Irish president has already stated he will be encouraging the other EU countries to view us in this light.

Scotland’s biggest problem is that the the majority of the UK has seen it as a territory or possession, while Scots have always seen themselves as a country in a Treaty of Union with another country.

Interesting thoughts Joe, thx, always good to debate 😉

I remain puzzled by the desire to hold a second “independence” debate that would result in significantly less independece than you have now, but I will leave that for you guys to tussle with. I will simply enjoy the irony of it all – blimey you really must hate the English to do that!!!! 😉

But as ever (remember my comments in the Indy thread) the currency is key. You were let down by yS who were compelwtely unprepared to deal with this key fundamental issue. But as other have noted, the practicalities of the Euro rule it out despite all Sturgeon’s hot air. So, as you have done, you come back to the idea of an independent currency. This is at least logically coherent if challenging in practice, but it is the correct starting point. Hence my comments that it is in your interests for Sturgeon to take a deep breath and STFU about the Euro.

So now we have the correct starting point. The next step is to think about what this means and what how would an independent currency behave given the relatively narrow economic base in Scotland and the elephant in the room – the high exposure to the potentially volatile price of oil.

The sensible response at this stage would be to minimise this risk by being part of a wider single currency region – lets call it the UK for the sake of argument – which fulfils the criteria for a single currency (unlike the Euro zone), has a high synchronisation of economic cycle (oil exposure aside) and offers a high level of devolved power at the same time.

So there we have it. All very simple really, Why did no one think about this before? 😉

The sensible response at this stage would be to minimise this risk by being part of a wider single currency region – lets call it the UK for the sake of argument – which fulfils the criteria for a single currency (unlike the Euro zone), has a high synchronisation of economic cycle (oil exposure aside) and offers a high level of devolved power at the same time.

But can they retain the same currency as the rUK and not be tied to whatever policy the BoE produces,which is obviously designed to help an Brexit’ed England?

No to the first bit

The second bit doesn’t follow, so can’t comment. But a rather smart Canadian gentleman addressed what you are probably getting at last time…..

It really is very simple. Why complicate matters so much.

The whole argument is based on a false premise, that ‘Scotland voted to remain part of the EU’

No, you didn’t – first you voted to remain part of the UK and then the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU.

You didn’t get a separate vote, you voted as part of the UK, which was the democratic choice of the people.

As for the oil, it may be down, but we would be getting 100% of the revenue not a pittance.

The treasury were negative on oil last time of reporting. Plenty of fields on their last legs and in another 2-3 years will be in an even worse state. There are still some decent producing fields out there, but nothing like the heady days of the 80’s & 90’s. Also don’t forget all the decommissioning costs that are coming around the corner.

For info this map shows where the oil & gas fields are in the North Sea.

I don’t think it’s hate at all, it’s just the extremely right wing nature of English politics, it’s incompatible with Scotland. Yes, the SNP aren’t left wing, but they aren’t nearly as bad as the extreme right wing of the tory party, that just triumphed, or as bad as the fascists in plain site, UKIP. That’s what scares Scotland. It’s been evident for a long long time. Recent events really don’t bode well for the future relationship, particularly if this insanity is followed through with.

As for Europe, the English fear “ever closer union” as they’ve always been in “control”. But Scotland is a country that has always been dominated by another, and I think many know that there is only so much control we can hope for. So I don’t think “ever closer union” holds as much fear for us up here as it does down south. There’s also an ideological conundrum going on there, that despite the tendencies of the EU to favour big business etc, Scotland is naturally more European in it’s outlook imo, so the ideas of a European superstate have less of a mental barrier up here.

Suppose there’s one thing we can say, this isn’t going to be dull.

ninfan – Member
The whole argument is based on a false premise, that ‘Scotland voted to remain part of the EU’

No, you didn’t – first you voted to remain part of the UK and then the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU.

You didn’t get a separate vote, you voted as part of the UK, which was the democratic choice of the people.

ninfan, I know fascist tendencies come naturally to you, but for the sake of the thread, chill out a bit with the dictatorial attitude.

The whole argument is based on a false premise, that ‘Scotland voted to remain part of the EU’

Are you after jambys crown of the person who posts things that are clearly false?

Its really not as simple as you maintain
Glad to see you are still whacking off to the trolling options of all this and not having a grown up debate7the reality is they voted to stay

What happens after this will be a constitutional mare but its hard to see how the rUk will FORCE Scotland to stay if they hld another referendum and vote to leave the uk.

Even the most ardent gun nut probably does not want to take up arms against Scotland – if they vote to leave. just like in the this one , it has to be respected

As far as independence is concerned the talk of oil is irrelevant. It’s not why we want independence. Any revenue from it is a bonus. It definitely is not a liability.

The economy issue is a red herring. Scotland can manage with whatever it has got, as does every other country that has gained independence from the UK, and we have considerably more resources than many of those.

Meanwhile in the FT:

teamhurtmore – Member
…I remain puzzled by the desire to hold a second “independence” debate that would result in significantly less independece than you have now, but I will leave that for you guys to tussle with. I will simply enjoy the irony of it all – blimey you really must hate the English to do that!!!!

The EU will not be appointing a colonial governor which we have at the moment. We will not have an upper house composed of Theocrats, Aristocrats, and other unelected people.

That sounds like an improvement to me.

The independence movement is driven by a desire for democracy, and we see more chance of that attached to Europe than the UK.

As for hating the English, that’s not true. I’m sure you’ll find a few knuckledraggers who do, but recent events have shown that England has more than its fair share of them too. I think it’s safe to say we do not like Westminster.

Ninfan – false premise or not, Cameron has effectively given Sturgeon the green light, the Scots are talking to London (unlikely to join really) and Gibraltar (possible) about their own ever closer union, and the Germans are saying nice things about not forcing the Scots and Northern Irish out of Europe against thief wishes. The political will is building. The Denmark/Greenland precedent means it is not impossible.

Financially if Cameron’s comments are interpreted at face value (Scotland part of both unions), then Edinburgh or Glasgow become the places to do business as they will have access to both markets – build things in Glasgow finance them in Edinburgh. Very easy to move operations from London to Edinburgh- less so with manufacturing, which would take time. Westminster doesn’t lose out too much because most of the tax still heads to them. City of London would carry on but it’s dominance would be reduced severely – which might not be bad.

Best of all democracy is served. Those who voted to leave the common market get to leave those who didn’t don’t.

As pointed out, the big issue is your budget deficit (with the current oil price). No, it’s not insurmountable but you might not like the medicine – of course the chances are that in a very similar way to the scare stories about Brexit, that will be downplayed by YS and nobody will believe it.

Maybe – there’s been a lot of chat about it, but reading the more sensible commentators, it seems it’s nowhere near as straightforward to do it in reverse and it’s probably unlikely to work. A50 is vague because nobody thought anybody would be daft enough to ever use it, not because it’s deliberately designed to help a state leaving the EU. I’m thinking that Cameron’s allusions were simply the first backwards step…

That’s spurious, and just down to how you do the accounts – Scotland might not keep the oil money, but it gets a lot of other “subsidy” from Westminster. All calculations on the accounts of Scotland (the ones which show the 9.7% budget deficit) include your rightful share of the oil revenue.

So, where’s nice to live in Scotland then?

It’s rather more than a bonus given the current state of the books. Nobody is suggesting you want independence because of the oil – it’s simply one factor which enabled a robust economic position in 2014 (though rather less so now).

Of course you can go it alone – nobody (sensible) has ever denied that – it’s just that the economic position might not be as good as you think. Of course there are opportunities post Brexit, but you should probably wait for those eggs to hatch before counting them.

aracer – Member
it seems it’s nowhere near as straightforward

I doubt anything is straight forward from here on in. So complexity isn’t really a viable excuse.

igm – Member
Northern Irish

I was watching the debate in Stormont yesterday, They’ve got a serious issue with the DUP.

I assume that if some bit of subterfuge allows us to remain as part of the EU, then the numbers will change a lot? In that case should HS2 not be going from Inverness to Glasgow? 😀 Seriously, would that not a) make Scotland more able to support itself and b) 100% mean the break up of the UK?

Still waiting for the emergency budget Osborne promised us.

S77 – I’d agree DUP MPs 100% leave is an indicator. I’m just saying what the Germans said – and I didn’t include them in the British European Union along with London and Gibraltar. I don’t know how likely it is anyway, but then I didn’t think people would vote for fewer jobs, more costs and higher taxes so what do I know.

Another thing I don’t know, what’s the status of IoM and the Channel Islands?

aracer – Member
…Of course you can go it alone – nobody (sensible) has ever denied that – it’s just that the economic position might not be as good as you think…

Just about every supporter of independence I have met expects our economic situation to be worse temporarily. Mainly because we believe that Westminster will do everything in its power to make that so. After 300 years of Westminster we have no illusions.

So to us the economy is not a major factor, a bonus if it’s ok, otherwise grin and bear it. Sort it we will.

oldnpastit – Member
So, where’s nice to live in Scotland then?

You probably wouldn’t like it. 😉

oldnpastit – Member
So, where’s nice to live in Scotland then?

The lumpy bits. 🙂

The one he’s said he’s leaving until after there’s a new boss in charge (ie he won’t be doing it)? I’m thinking it will happen after we invoke article 50…

They’re not part of the EU – but then neither are they part of the UK. I think officially both are “crown dependencies”. IIRC the Channel Islands are part of the EU free trade area, though I’m not sure if that applies to IoM.

blimey you really must hate the English to do that!!!!

sometimes you say the most stupid of things

they want t stay in the EU that is all
Its the English who just voted out of hatred and everyone can see that even you at your trolling best /worst

don’t think it’s hate at all,

My comment was tongue-in-cheek 😉

it’s just the extremely right wing nature of English politics

As I assume this was!!

i

Yes, the SNP aren’t left wing,

True

Folk can bash ninfan as much as they like, but his comments in the nature of the vote were fatally correct – 100% so – the voting slips were very clear and it was a very simple question.

Do you want the UK to remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?

If people chose to interpret this in a different way, then so be it. You can’t change what was written in the paper in black and white.

My comment was tongue-in-cheek

ah the beautiful irony of you playing the Edinburgh defence

Well an interesting reaction to Alyn Smith – I think we can safely say you have the EU parliament behind you

…though I’m pleased to see the Sinn Fein lady didn’t get quite the same reaction