Scotland Indyref 2

Thm;tick…Zulu11;tick…Just need Jambalaya for “house” on a Scottish Indy thread bingo. Don’t you have bigger fish to fry just now gentlemen?

You missed the fatuous comment from duckie out of the card. Careful you will miss the prize without the correct card.

We will leave the fried stuff to you boys. Lightly grilled is much better BTW with a touch of fresh lime.

While there may be a slightly stronger political case, the economic case is now much weaker. Plus after dealing with the chaos of Brexit, I would imagine limited appetite for negotiations with an indep Scotland.

bencooper
Every single indy supporter in indyref 1 in practical terms voted to leave both the UK and the EU (SNP wishful thinking aside thats what would have happened)

Rejoining the EU after a successful indyref 1 would have meant massive austerity just to economically qualify to apply to join.

That hasn’t changed.

Until the UK gov activates article 50 its all a bit preliminary anyway.

By the way there was a poll since the result which says (from memory) 54 independence, 46 stay in the UK (excluding 9% undecided).

If independence can’t hit overall 60% in favour (Sturgeons most likely target to willingly have indy 2) with a gut reaction on the day after a surprise “brexit” vote, do you really think it can sustain even that lead after the economic implications of leaving the UK as well as the EU become clear to the “don’t knows” during the run up to the vote?

eat_the_pudding – Member
If independence can’t hit overall 60% in favour (Sturgeons most likely target to willingly have indy 2) with a gut reaction on the day after a surprise “brexit” vote, do you really think it can sustain even that lead after the economic implications of leaving the UK as well as the EU become clear to the “don’t knows” during the run up to the vote?

The last starting point was 30%. I think a starting point of 59% (Your memory fails you) is not bad. But you batter in spin that as a bad thing! 😆

Until the UK gov activates article 50 its all a bit preliminary anyway.

Planning ahead in case something happens is a good idea, though. The Scottish government did for Brexit, the Westminster government didn’t. It’s what competent governments do.

Or not as the case may be – because as I pointed out here the consent of the Scottish parliament isn’t needed for the UK to leave the EU. It might be needed for EU law to be removed from Scottish law, but that’s not the same thing at all – and not really something which should bother Westminster at all as it’s clearly a devolved issue. The UK (including Scotland) can leave the EU whilst EU law still applies in Scotland.

Did they? In what way? I’m not disputing that there’s been a massive lack of planning from the UK government, but ISTM Nicola is simply reacting to events – where is her big plan? Of course the Scottish government didn’t strictly speaking need to have any plans for Brexit, as most of the immediate issues aren’t devolved ones.

Scottish Government ‘planning’ for Brexit

Hmm, so planning a charm offensive? Yet it seems GO has also been doing some planning – how do the plans compare?

aracer – Member
Hmm, so planning a charm offensive? Yet it seems GO has also been doing some planning – how do the plans compare?

Do you always have to take a contrary stand point to everything?

It’s pretty clear that no-one could have completely planned or can plan for the events to come.

Any chance of not letting this discussion take on the trolling nature of the last one?

There are questions that have no answers, have various answers etc.

From the political commentary I’ve heard so far I don’t think the SNP will need to do any campaigning for independence this time around as everyone else is doing it for them. Given the chaos the Labour party are in it’s even possible that Scottish Labour might decide to go on their own and support independence this time – in which case it would truly be game over for the union.

seosamh77 I stand corrected 🙂
But I stand by the premise that the reasons brexit was/is a mistake aren’t unrelated to the reasons indy2 would be a bigger one.

My hope is that people will want more facts than grievances.

That may be too much to hope for. Scottish nationalism isn’t as different from English nationalism as its PR might suggest.

Any chance of not letting this discussion take on the trolling nature of the last one?

Unlikely, it is a very emotive subject for a lot of people. Expect more childish made up names and belittling of any suggestion of an ability to self-govern.

Since you are here aracer,(and you are small beer in the scale of the aforementioned) I am not sure I made my trade question on the other thread clear enough…

Orange 5 owner needs roof bars for his A5 estate (no stereotype there)
Using the soft border, he drops the car off at Dumfries and avails himself of some of our fantastic trail centres. What is to stop him paying EU rate for aforementioned bars and avoiding any non-EU member state mark up?

thanks, I think

I am not sure I made my trade question on the other thread clear enough…
Orange 5 owner needs roof bars for his A5 estate (no stereotype there)
Using the soft border, he drops the car off at Dumfries and avails himself of some of our fantastic trail centres. What is to stop him paying EU rate for aforementioned bars and avoiding any non-EU member state mark up?

Ah, I thought you were talking large scale foreign trade. That would clearly be just the same as somebody going to France (or indeed the US) to buy their roof bars and subject to whatever duty free allowances the UK government allows on their punitive EU tariffs.

Bearing in mind how many threads we have on here about avoiding import duty, I can see a whole border industry springing up, like a colder, Presbyterian version of Tijuana.

Cameron just said that Scotland should stay in the UK and the EU.

David Cameron responds that getting the best deal for the UK outside the EU should include the best deal for Scotland. The PM says Scotland is in two single markets – the UK and EU – and ideally should remain in both.

MSP – Member
Cameron just said that Scotland should stay in the UK and the EU.

that was really odd

he just said we should abide by the referendum too?

eat_the_pudding – Member
seosamh77 I stand corrected
But I stand by the premise that the reasons brexit was/is a mistake aren’t unrelated to the reasons indy2 would be a bigger one.

My hope is that people will want more facts than grievances.

That may be too much to hope for. Scottish nationalism isn’t as different from English nationalism as its PR might suggest.

The reasons have vastly changed tbh, and I doubt any of us can know about the ramifications for either.

So Scotland and the uk out of Europe, Scotland in the uk and europe, or an independent scotland in Europe, are all completely new propositions, and their circumstances are all vastly different now..

I don’t think the previous referendum has a lot of baring on any scenario.

Cases need to be put forward for them all. Everything is up in the air, where it all falls, who knows. Beware people claiming certainties.

MSP – Member
Cameron just said that Scotland should stay in the UK and the EU.

2 single markets. That’s a different thing.

Holy sheeyit!

Gibraltar wants in on the act too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36639770

We are living in crazy times.

If anything good comes out of this I would love it to be the tax pariah states IOM, Jersey, Gibraltar etc cut adrift

Hang on though; can a back bench MP not get the whip withdrawn for speaking out of turn like that? 8)

CMD? He’s a back bench MP in the same way the UK is no longer a member of the EU.

Sounds like a good first step in the plan…

Interesting for Edinburgh, not so good for London

CMD? He’s a back bench MP in the same way the UK is no longer a member of the EU.

It’s an Indy thread, don’t expect straight facts…

teamhurtmore – Member
CMD? He’s a back bench MP in the same way the UK is no longer a member of the EU.
It’s an Indy thread, don’t expect straight facts…

what facts would they be?

Pray tell, what’s the case for the UK?

Ok Joe

How about CMD is the Prime Minister
The UK is a member of the EU

There’s a start.

(although appreciate original comment about CMD and my response were both made tongue in cheek)

I’m convinced! 😆

Serious question though Thm, what is your honest view, if such a scenario could happen…. indulge me…. If Scotland retained the EU membership, while England and Wales left and went on their own with independence from Europe.

What’s your honest analysis of that?

Brexit has certainly increased support for another indy referendum. It has made independence more likely.I don’t think the SNP would opt for an early referendum The main issue right now though has to be getting the best possible deal for Scotland ie maintaining close relations with the EU or remaining in while other parts of the UK exit. If such a deal is blocked by the rest of the UK then there is a real chance of another indy referendum. If there has not been an end to the chaos among Labour and Tories and if there is further damage to the economy, if support is high in the polls then,only then the calls for a referendum might be hard for the SNP to resist

Having though about this alot last 72hrs, as much as I would like to see it happen, I am not sure we would win a referendum anytime soon. If one was called in next couple months, taking advantage of peoples mood, it could come close but imho just fall short. If we waited a couple years to see what happens with the UK/EU talks then most of the anger will have calmed down and enough people will have moved on. I can see support by this time being further behind than it was in 2014 as we could potentially be in midst of a recession and people will want to hang on to whatever little bit of stability they have. If it was a choice between a half chance now or a good chance in 5-10 years time then I’d rather wait. I think there will definitely be a 2nd referendum, can’t see there being another one after that though, not for decades at least.

look, I just found 9 quid down the back of my couch! 😆

Who’s that woman? Theresa May?

Did someone die on your sofa?

You know the biggest thing about all this in context of a scottish referendum is?

The UK government must respect the result. Binding or not.

martinhutch – Member
Did someone die on your sofa?

😆 never even noticed that.

Do I not remember a thread about ss7 being into fancy chairs? Maybe that’s why the sofa came from CSI Glasgow.

Doesn’t that depend on what’s written into the legislation for each referendum.

thegreatape – Member
Doesn’t that depend on what’s written into the legislation for each referendum.

Don’t worry, I’m sure they’ll add an advisory clause…