Scotland Indyref 2

aracer - Member

Though more significantly there appears to be some expectation that as if by magic you will fix this hole in the medium

No one is asking the layman to come up with an coherent economic plan - what is being suggested is very complicated.

What is being asked/suggested is an element of critical thought when appraising the false hopes that the likes of the SNP propose - there is no need to follow the Brexshiteers and Trumpettes in blond adulation of false utopias. Delivery on basic issues even with the best structure imaginable is relatively poor and there is not explanation of why they as suddenly going to get better. Good education, health, social services and general well being are not the products of fluff and woolly warm feelings of fake control and sovereignty - there are plenty of lessons on this right now!

Be careful what you wish for.

Joe, I can tell you from first hand experience that STW views Scottish as a race and ban people for making jokes on the specific ground of racism. Silly I know but that's the case

It wasn't STW that set the precedent

http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/p_to_r/racist_and_religious_crime/

"A racial group means a group of persons defined by reference to race, colour, nationality (including citizenship) or ethnic or national origins."

are we back to denying Scotland is a country again.

This thread boils down to the irrelevant non-voters assuming that uniquely in the world Scots are incapable of running our own country, and are incapable of adjusting to whatever circumstances emerge during the process.

Maybe we should import some experts from the hundreds of countries that have gained independence to advise us.

See? Even a dumbo like me who can't come up with a complete economic plan can think of one solution. I'm sure there's more.

If we're talking about SNP cock ups (seems to be a recurring theme on this thread), it was no accident that TM cast up education in her recent speech.

The Scottish education system is a total disaster, I'm just amazed it's not bigger news.

Given that no one is saying that it just shows the lengths that you have to go to to avoid critical debate. Nicola would be very proud.

@Epic No need, there's plenty of unwanted experts in the rUK.

Save a fortune on transport costs.

teamhurtmore - Member
...What is being asked/suggested is an element of critical thought when appraising the false hopes that the likes of the SNP propose...

And there is the basic flaw in the Unionist case.

They keep ranting on about the SNP this, SNP that.

The SNP is NOT leading us anywhere, it is the expression of a movement that is pushing it. The movement would quickly abandon the SNP the second it was not seen to be pushing for independence and switch to a party that did.

The SNP leadership are well aware of this.

teamhurtmore - Member
Given that no one is saying that it just shows the lengths that you have to go to to avoid critical debate. Nicola would be very proud.

Critical debate? Why does anyone have to justify the self-determination and independence of their country?

piemonster - Member
@Epic No need, there's plenty of unwanted experts in the rUK.

Save a fortune on transport costs.

They'll be too busy extracting the rUK out of the economic mire. Apparently when a country "gets back control" it can no longer function.

For the very simple reason that the real question is what is the best arrangement to maximise the interest of the Scotiish people. I appreciate that this is a bit of a random thought.

Plenty of maiden aunts and unhappy batchleors "enjoy" all the freedom and self determination they want. How many are truly happy?

teamhurtmore - Member
For the very simple reason that the real question is what is the best arrangement to maximise the interest of the Scotiish people. I appreciate that this is a bit of a random thought.

Plenty of maiden aunts and unhappy batchleors "enjoy" all the freedom and self determination they want. How many are truly happy?

If you want an analogy, think of a spouse tied into a relationship with a bitter nasty partner who snaffles her/his pay and spends the family budget buying expensive status toys and partying with mates and then claims there's not enough for basics like feeding the kids.

Divorce looks like a good idea even if it means some temporary hardship.

On the economic case for independence:

To some folk it simply does not matter. Self determination trumps all.

On the actual numbers - no one really knows and a huge amount depends on negotiations and how hardball Westminster plays. One thing we do know is its not ten billion of cuts in the scottish budget tomorrow but there will be tough decisions that need to be taken and its far from an ideal time economically. The timetable is not Sturgeons to set tho.

The SNP will have to make a good credible case economically for independence and find some good answers to the currency questions. Its the ground they will win or lose the referendum on.

Medium to long term Scotland has good economic prospects. Oil is always there as a bonus, we are well placed to take on a leading role in tidal power and even be a power exporter and will also mop up some financial services from London. The EU has just given us a grant for further investment in tidal power

There is simply no logical reason why an independent Scotland could not be a rich country

It's obvious Scotland is going to have a large deficit on independence, it has one already. So does the UK as a whole. No-one really knows how much this would be come independence, it's impossible to tell due to spin on figures from all sides. Proportionally the Scottish deficit is larger than that of the UK as a whole. This is a recent development, it wasn't always the case and there is no reason why it always will be. It comes down to people and how we manage this and work our way out of it using the resources we have to the best of our abilities. Scotland is not going to be any worse at doing this as our rUK colleagues. To suggest otherwise would be ridiculous.

We have different priorities and needs and want to go in different directions politically, there are no longer any other alternatives to independence. After Brexit I cannot see devolution being strengthened, in fact I think there will be a weakening of the devolved powers. This will result in the deficit always being disproportionate and will leave us relying on our UK partners to prop us up. This will then be used, as it is now, as a stick to beat us with (subsidy junkies anyone?) by the ignorant small minded majority that now seems to be in place in England and we will never progress as a nation.

Sure there is uncertainty in independence, there always has been and always will be. What is different now compared to 2014 is that there would be more uncertainty if we stick with the UK and the direction they are heading. Independence isn't going to be a catastrophe, we won't all starve to death or break out in civil war. Worst case scenario is we take a hit short term or even middle term in standards or we get in more debt trying not to, but that will just as likely come as part of UK anyway so what is there to lose?

Its the ground they will win or lose the referendum on.

The independence movement needs a boot up the arse in that regard or they'll just sleepwalk into another defeat by promising everything will be better but not actually saying how.

Spin - Member

The Scottish education system is a total disaster

Is it perfect, no. Does it need improved yes. The sensationalism is just political posturing through, pile of nonsense.

we'll deal with it

-10bn ongoing SNP austerity = a satisfying challenge for a brave young nation.

no one really knows

[subtext: No-one can know _anything_ about the future _ever_, all evidence that disagrees with me is useless and I'll probably be killed by a truck I saw coming but ignored.]

On the bright side, you all seem to accept that indy would lead to massive hardship for the weakest in society for a long time.

But you don't seem to care as long as the right people are making the cuts. Fair enough I see where you are coming from and your Conservative party membership card is in the post.

Alright people stop believing in self determination because it makes Hurtmore's aunt unhappy.
Thm you should have brought this up long ago.
Boris could have left the bus unpainted.
Jamba might never have been factchecked

On the flip side we're just sick of constantly being told we are charity cases and are happy to live on our own efforts.

btw your 2bn in austerity completely ignores rates of inflation.

You also continue still ignore the fact that these poor numbers come under the structure of the uk.

km79 stop calling "certain austerity" "uncertainty" your dictionary is broken.

seosamh77 I refer you to my post above. You can live on your own efforts and those who rely a welfare safety net can just tighten their belts a bit more. For the next 20 years.

Charity cases .. Jeebus give me strength ..
Here have a read of this: [url= https://chokkablog.blogspot.com/2015/04/full-fiscal-autonomy-for-dummies.html ]FFA for dummies[/url]

Theres a lot more in there about GERS and everything else you probably don't really want to know. Fill yer boots.

you also ignore that every small country surrounding us, that isn't run by the uk, performs significantly better than scotland.

km79 stop calling "certain austerity" "uncertainty" your dictionary is broken.

So under the UK how long will the '10bn hole' in Scotland be tolerated?

It's coming one way or another, only a question of how much. We can chose to spend all of our money how we would like to or chose to spend a portion of it how we like to. It's not really a tough choice.

km79 - Member
km79 stop calling "certain austerity" "uncertainty" your dictionary is broken.
So under the UK how long will the '10bn hole' in Scotland be tolerated?

£10bn - That's £192m per week for rUK NHS.

At a stroke they could reduce the rUK deficit and take years off of austerity if they just cut Scotland loose? Can't understand why nobody is campaigning for this south of the border.

I feel an order for new bus decals must be imminent! 😆

Because its utter bobbins zigzag.

Scotlands deficit 'hole' only becomes a real deficit under independence. Until then the areas of the UK that perform less well economically are supported by the areas that perform better. That's sort of the advantage of being part of a country rather than part of an Amazonian tribe with tiny horizons and no wider 'pooling and sharing' of resources.

You could probably make a case that pretty much any area outside London is running a deficit in terms of cash generated vs cash spent. But no one is doing the calculations because they're not planning to set out on their own and make it real.

Anyway, I'm glad we all seem to see at least the initial problem with the economic argument for independence (that there isn't one) and we can move on to whether the people of Scotland think it's a price worth paying.

This kinda sensationalism is why politics should not be involved in education...

Is not sensationalism, it's my opinion as a teacher seeing the continual pointless tinkering by the SQA who are accountable to no one and keep moving the goal posts sometimes between pupils sitting exams and those exams being marked, the record levels of stress and anxiety amongst pupils and teachers, the woefully underfunded schools, the courses that don't meet the needs of pupils,the shoehorning of pupils into courses that don't suit and the ever increasing burden of assessment.

But you are right. Politics shouldn't be involved in education. Unfortunately it is and children's futures are used as a political football.

Scotlands deficit 'hole' only becomes a real deficit under independence.

That's creative.

Until then the areas of the UK that perform less well economically are supported by the areas that perform better.

That's sort of the advantage of being part of a country

Scotland is a country, not an area of one.

Can't be bothered with the rest.

ETP - you can recycle when you have a properly functioning union with monetary, fiscal and political union combined. Plus you get high levels of devolved power thrown in as a Brucie bonus. In contrast, there is a new "desire" to become shackled with a union that lacks this basic requirement and which "kills" smaller,deficit nations.

The coffee smell great.....

Ah, the wishful thinking amongst our ill-wishers.

Never mind chaps, although we will be gone soon, you'll have Empire 2.0 to occupy your time. Lots and lots of brown people to exploit and feel superior to....

The only ill wishers are those wanting to commit self harm.

Some reality on the likley defence spending requirements for a iScotland

Overall, the new landscape has forced Norway to raise its defence budget to €5.5bn (£4.8bn), investing in a formidable new range of joint strike aircraft, submarines and spotter planes in what is described as the country’s biggest onshore investment in its history.

From: [url= https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/13/troubled-waters-norway-keeps-watch-on-russias-arctic-manoeuvres ]Guardian linky[/url]

[i]Some reality on the likley defence spending requirements for a iScotland [/I]

That's Norway's choice, doesn't have to be ours - and not sure you've noticed but they actually border Russia plus any fleet movements out of the north go directly past them.

Good graph and resources:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

A bit less than 1% of GDP looks a good 'aim' (circa £2bn pa), mainly taken up with air-sea rescue and a very small professional multi-purpose force that can 'practice' with UN duties etc.

What we don't want to do is get caught up in inheriting any long-term expensive contracts from the UK.

A bit less than 1% of GDP looks a good 'aim' (circa £2bn pa), mainly taken up with air-sea rescue and a very small professional multi-purpose force that can 'practice' with UN duties etc.

The Scottish Nationalists always seem to get very confused when answering defence questions.

You do realise that the only reason the UK Military performed SAR duties was because they were available for the recovery of ditched pilots? It was never a primary role.

You have an extensive coastline and some major offshore assets, how will you protect them?

What's a muti-purpose force?

epicyclo
I'm content that I've made my point and kind of moved on from this .
But I'm not going to let pass your implication that opposing scottish independence is somehow related to a vision that includes;

you'll have Empire 2.0 to occupy your time. Lots and lots of brown people to exploit and feel superior to....

In this thread I have been accused of being a racist once already by someone who failed to produce any evidence and the implication of your comment isn't far off the same thing.

Its obviously not enough that you (and not only you) can't come up with any evidence that iScotland would not be an economic basket case. But it seems that anyone who disagrees with you or uses facts must somehow be an outsider with reprehensible character traits.

Such people can't be Scottish,
They can't live in Scotland,
They must be tories,
They must support brexit,
They must have certain attitudes about "brown people",

Whats next maybe "traitor" "quisling"?

If thats what your "joyful" "inclusive" "non-nationalistic nationalism" has to offer to those who dissent. then you can definitely keep it.

I never called you racist. I just asked why you hate us.

Sturgeon to make an important announcement at 11-30

another referendum then?

Anyhow, seems sturgeon going to make an announcement of sorts at 11.30 this morning.

🙄 Thanks for making my point.

eat_the_pudding - Member

Bearing in mind a central thread of at least two posters on here is that indy is all because of hatred of the English, you are very one eyed. Or had you not noticed that part of the debate?

UKIP, 1.6% of the electorate in 2015 (Scotland)
UKIP, 14.1% of the electorate in 2015 (England)

You do seem to like statistics; while somewhat colourful, epic's comment on Brown people would seem to be increasingly reflected by England's voters...Both in 2015 and 2016.

[i]What's a multi-purpose force? [/I]

Best imagine something along the lines of the US Marines, a single force with multiple abilities - we haven't the money to throw at having large expansive bureaucracies (Army, Navy, Air Force) etc.

Main focus is on 'defence' of Scotland, so coastlines etc plus commercial protection (fisheries mostly). Will need to be amphibious based.

Planes' wise, be pointless trying to keep up with the UK/USA/Russia, so coastal rescue plus I'm sure we could cover our Nato commitments by long-range surveillance - esp. the Scotland to Iceland 'gap'.

Will need to be amphibious based.

Probably the most expensive option for any armed forces.

Planes' wise, be pointless trying to keep up with the UK/USA/Russia, so coastal rescue

You can't have amphibious forces without air cover.

Using military assets for coastal rescue is an extremely expensive option.

duckman
So [i]they[/i] started it.
Well that makes it all right then; generalise away; perfectly justified; can't see what I was complaining about at all now.

Whataboutery achievement unlocked.

Good swerve...I just thought if you were going to complain about the tone of posts then you would recognise it is a two way street. But maybe not, at least you are consistent.

[i]Using military assets for coastal rescue is an extremely expensive option. [/I]

That's your statement not mine. Where did I say that?

But better than them sat doing nothing.

We'll need to rethink how we do it, these may be a good place to start:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Defence_Force

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_Armed_Forces

Not swerving, but thanks for making assumptions.

Yes it is a 2 way street. Thought that would go without saying based on my clearly expressed attitude.

Specific enough for you?

Honestly I think that Norway is a more realistic model, with close integration with rUK. Remember Scotland needs an effective SAR capability, for the North Sea oil rigs,, along with the fishermen and tourists.

For more proactive defense from the Russia's maybe iScotland could as the Yanks to stick some F-22 in Leuchars as they love a bit of golf 😆

or combine the two at Lossiemouth..

[img] [/img]

Wont there be an EU army along soon?

The BBC comments section is basically a very long series of angry little englanders posting abusive things about Sturgeon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39253934

You can easily see why the Scots want to get away from what appears to be a nation of trolls!

PS Now that I've made it clear that such generalisations are reprehensible from wherever they come, would it be foolish to assume that maybe others on here will apologise for conflating opposition to iScotland for an:
a) inclination to dominate brown people (epicyclo) and
b) a hatred of Scottish people (seosamh77)

Seems only fair. No?
But not holding my breath.

Also
Despite the fluff and misdirection, I'm still waiting for a list of 10-14Bn worth of progressive, forward looking, socially responsible and fair public spending cuts (or tax rises) that an iScotland could make while protecting the poor and disadvantaged more than the current situation?

But again, not holding my breath.

The economic plan for iScotland really is beginning to look like its flags all the way down.

so do we get to do this thread all again in winter '18?

Nah, just keep this one running, or copy and paste the last one.

eat_the_pudding - Member
Despite the fluff and misdirection, I'm still waiting for a list of 10-14Bn worth of progressive, forward looking, socially responsible and fair public spending cuts (or tax rises) that an iScotland could make while protecting the poor and disadvantaged more than the current situation?

But again, not holding my breath.

The economic plan for iScotland really is beginning to look like its flags all the way down.

Referndums are about the head not the heart 'Its the economy, stupid' does not apply

Oh god another 18-24 months of 'debate' FFS, thought we'd got this done and dusted in 2014.

How many times does zee mention HARD Brexshit? So if we get a sensible deal, does that take the referendum off the table?

Zee even has to lie now, god knows what the next two years are going to be like. No need to out trump Trump.

Could it boil down to which crowd of clueless muppets* we want governed by, Westminster or Holyrood?

I apologise if that sounds like a trite or stupid comment, but it seems we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

I'd always hoped the SNP might pave the way for another vote by actually trying to do the best they could with the powers they have, but have they even done this?

It seems like the outcome of another vote will be:

- NO vote: Sturgeon resigns, chaos, bitterness, then what, reduced SNP majority in Holyrood?

- YES vote: SNP get to imitate the current Tory/Brexit strategy of 'oh **** we didn't think we'd actually win, now what?'

[s]flags[/s] all the way down

Self obsessed careerist politicians all the way down? 🙁

I at least hope they'll have the sense to admit the economic argument is extremely shaky or at least impossible to prove, rather than go for outright B.S.

*well obviously not 'clueless' but just 'clue-ically malajusted' or something.

Wondering if that Private Eye subscription was really a good idea, at least a the moment they spend most of their time tearing strips of Westminster politicians, could be pretty embarassing once they turn their focus on Holyrood... 😳

Bearing in mind a central thread of at least two posters on here is that indy is all because of hatred of the English, you are very one eyed. Or had you not noticed that part of the debate?

UKIP, 1.6% of the electorate in 2015 (Scotland)
UKIP, 14.1% of the electorate in 2015 (England)

Which two posters, at least, think Indy is [b]all because[/b] of a hatred of the English ?

Nationalism is much stronger in Scotland than England, that's why the SNP is in power. SNP is Scotland's UKIP.

Hard Brexhsit - unlikely
Centralised Power - total BS, more like quasi federalism
Anti-austerity - 😉
Left wing - cut corporation tax below rUK, quote Laffer when arguing against raising MRT of income tax

ballsy stuff to spins so may lies all at the same time. Still the end justifies the means

#SDBMB

*pulls tarp off IndyMegaBus "WE SEND 350m LITRES OF IRN BRU TO ENGLAND EVERY YEAR. LETS GIVE IT TO OUR FAT KIDS INSTEAD"

I think Nicola is just taking the shoeing at Twickers a bit hard this morning. I blame Jonathan Joseph personally.

The link that Kimber posted to the BBC comments makes depressing reading. So many nasty comments.

I thought that FM presented a clear, balanced and coherent argument, and that should be appreciated regardless of political view. Even if you do not agree with independence, it should be possible to appreciate that much has changed since the last referendum and why many people might be aggrieved.

what sort of trip is she having saying that scotland has closer ties to the eu than the uk? that she'd rather trade with the eu than the uk as its 8 times bigger?

will they be re building hadrians wall or will it be sturgeons wall?

now shes says its ok cos jezzer corbyn says its ok..

she just wants to be only the telly and it would be amusing if it wasnt as dangerous as trump in the whitehouse.

Nationalism is much stronger in Scotland than England, that's why the SNP is in power. SNP is Scotland's UKIP.

Bollocks.

best of three?

she just wants to be only the telly and it would be amusing if it wasnt as dangerous as trump in the whitehouse.

come on now.. its not THAT dangerous. Mind you I did once get a stale rowie off the face once in Aberdeen, grazed my check quite badly.

The scary thing for Scotland is the lack of a representative for common sense. The hard Nats need no persuading, they're ooot, the hard of understanding could easily be fooled by Book of Dreams II, the cannies are safe on the other side.

So who is the sensible voice for the undecideds? Not obvious. it was bad last time.

jambalaya - Member
SNP is Scotland's UKIP.

😆

THM, That depends on your definition of common sense. Many view FM as embodiment of Common Sense - at the last General Election she was winning plaudits from many English voters over her pragmatic approach to politics

So who is the sensible voice for the undecideds? Not obvious. it was bad last time.

Hopefully Ruth Davidson because she is both competent and liked (the person, not the party). The spectator ran a piece a couple of weeks ago predicting that a referendum would be called because Sturgeon's ratings are dropping while Davidson's are improving.

Yes probably Ruth - hope she is well advised on the social media strategy. This will be key and the Nats are already well ahead in planning there

May responds by saying, to paraphrase, "piss off, and focus on governing for your people".

EDIT:

Many view FM as embodiment of Common Sense

Approval rating going down quite quickly, Davidson is more popular now, but after so long in Government you would expect that to happen.

I can't read this whole thread so - how much has public opinion in Scotland shifted since the Brexit vote, and in which direction?

Davidson is a decent orator, pretty likeable too, but will always be hamstrung by being attached to a party that used to be toxic up here, but are now about as relevant as Labour.

Let's all remember, if you don't live in Scotland you haven't a vote, but if you do (and are 16 or older) then you have.

Real simple.

I can't read this whole thread so - how much has public opinion in Scotland shifted since the Brexit vote, and in which direction?

Impossible to say to be honest, After the recent polls and results...

The polls show there has been movement when there is mention of a hard Brexit in the press but when things are a little quieter then its about the same as 2014.Either the electorate or the pollsters have no idea.

I personally think calling the referendum is a mistake but I'm sure there are plenty who will disagree with me.