Scotland Indyref 2

Ah bless, you have an indirect feed. How sad.

Aracer – perhaps rUK could be compensated by being allowed to remain Scotlands lender of last resort? I’m sure there is more too…

Oh for pete’s sake. TJ and THM and kill files and bickering. Get over yourselves or the debate’s dead, please.

I’ll be back tonight to see if you’ve sorted yourselves out.

You are correct mol – apologies!

Sorry Molly. *bows head in shame*

Eritrea? Slovenia? Croatia?

1990s Yugoslavia is hardly the best comparison for the current state of the UK and Eritrea is not really the sort of country I aspire for us to be.

Scotland is a country – the UK is a union.

Scotland may be a country (which is a vague term at best), but the internationally recognised sovereign state is the UK. The UK is a unitary state, not a federal one.

Scotland has no status in international law. Scotland is not a member of the EU, UN, NATO, etc; Scotland cannot sign international treaties; and Scotland cannot legally declare independence unilaterally because that would breach the territorial integrity of the UK. Some may accept it (International Law is mostly custom rather than statute or treaty) but it would be difficult to do and we could well end up as an economic pariah. The economics of an independent Scotland would be hard enough…

There are lots of things that Scotland could do, but for us to shove the middle finger at Westminster and claim that the United Nations will save us is somewhere between ignorant and childish. The UN is rather more concerned with places that have real problems.

I’m quoting that for TJ

Aracer – perhaps rUK could be compensated by being allowed to remain Scotlands lender of last resort?

Regarding UDI it may be possible that would be legally recognised, but don’t rely too much on the distinction between a country a region and a union. The Act of Union predates the UN by a couple of centuries and I’m fairly sure in their terms the country is the UK.

Though there are all sorts of reasons why UDI would be a bad thing for Scotland – some identified by THM, but plenty more given how closely tied Scotland is to rUK. Nicola isn’t that daft, she might not be totally honest about it not being an ideological or ego thing, but neither is she going to do something which would be so clearly bad for Scotland. I could believe Alex going for UDI but not Nicola.

We can debate over whether IS would be a good or bad thing, and I’ll largely accept we have a difference of opinion. However it’s not even worth responding to anybody who thinks UDI would be a good thing.

aracer – sorry but I thought you would recognise that I was taking the piss there!!

The lender of last resort proposal was one of the most fanciful of the yS BS last time round. Carney (“the bully”) put them straight though but was told not to interfere in other countries business by the same people who now let fly at Trump. One rule for us, another one for them!

However it’s not even worth responding to anybody who thinks UDI would be a good thing.

add “what debt”, “what deficit”

UDI would certainly be the nuclear option and not the best outcome. An amicable divorce would be best. However it is not without its advantages the main one being Scotland would not take any of the debt – which has almost all been racked up by England not Scotland. ( if you include oil in scotlands accounts scotland has been in surplus most of the last 40 years)

Sturgeon is a cautious politician unlike Salmond who is a risk taker so I think you are right – its not an option she would want. However if she accepts that the people of Scotland want a referendum and Westminster tries to block it then what other option is there? Holyrood runs the referendum without Westminster backing, big majority for independence, Westminster refuse to negotiate then what can she do?

Remeber the main real driver for another referendum is that the promises we were given in 2014 have all been broken and we are being forced out of the EU against ourt wishes. She has to do something. Post the EU referendum there is a huge shift in poilitical opinion and the reality of Scotland staying in the EU – and to remain in the EU is a prize worth striving for.

Anyone ever feel this thread is like this:

aracer – sorry but I thought you would recognise that I was taking the piss there!!

I expect TJ can as well – I wasn’t quoting it because of its intellectual merit!

UDI would certainly be the nuclear option and not the best outcome. An amicable divorce would be best. However it is not without its advantages

<blocked>

Post the EU referendum there is a huge shift in poilitical opinion and the reality of Scotland staying in the EU – and to remain in the EU is a prize worth striving for.

You seriously think UDI is a realistic way to achieve that? 😯

No – but given Westminster intransigence what else could be done? Personally I don’t believe it will come to that. May is too clever a politician to attempt to block a referendum as she knows it would be damaging to the unionist cause

aracer – if westminster tries to block a referendum could Sturgeon invite UN observers in to oversee one? IIRC other countries have done this

Still no simple answer as to how to reconcile the desire for independence with a wish to join a union built around monetary union and a flawed exchange rate mechanism and moving towards full fiscal and political union.

The room is not big enough to accommodate this elephant for too long.

I expect TJ can as well – I wasn’t quoting it because of its intellectual merit!

Of course, but there is a constant flow of proposals from nats that demonstrate either a complete lack of understanding (as you have noted) or deliberate intellectual dishonesty. This is exactly what the people need to protected against.

No – but given Westminster intransigence what else could be done?

I’m voting Leave/Trump, it’s worth a try because it can’t get any worse

Not really aracer. If there is a majority in Scotland for independence and Westminster tries to block it what route is left for Sturgeon / holyrood?

Nicola isn’t CMD, she won’t be calling a vote which could result in her being backed into that corner

Though I have to admit I’m enjoying the analogy possibilities of IS voters and Brexiteers

Remeber the main real driver for another referendum is that the promises we were given in 2014 have all been broken

As you can see, among the lies that continue is the idea that the UK did not honour its promised made (in the false panic) pre-vote. But as we know, the detail was left to the Smith Commission and the SNP signed off on that agreement with the other parties. As per, they later muddied the waters, claiming that what was agreed was not enough. So guess what – the Uk didnt deliver becomes a false narrative. Usual SNP smoke and mirrors stuff which tj and others willing swallow.

In contrast:

Analysts from the Scottish Parliament Information Centre concluded that the fiscal changes set out in the Smith Commission would mean Holyrood was one of the most economically powerful devolved parliaments in the world, compared to federal systems like Germany and Switzerland

Source: fullfacts

Cake and eat it……

And people want to throw this away in favour of poorly thought-through/not-thought through fluff and nonsense. Like Brexshit it would be the most vulnerable members of Scottish society that would lose out.

Insanity

Aracer – she could and would IMO. either that or she would have to stand down.

If the polls start to show a decent majority for yes then she has to call a referendum – and it has to be done soon. Her position within the party would be unsustainable if she didn’t – and to bow to westminster pressure? Unthinkable

So she’d call a second referendum, the main justification for which is Brexit, the result of which is that she’s forced to commit to something which would result in Scotland not only being outside the EU, but not even recognised by it, so no trade deals etc? Because the EU certainly does deal in realpolitik – don’t believe that all the positive noises being made at the moment will mean anything when it has to deal with part of a member state which declares UDI (I don’t suppose the distinction of it being a former member state will matter that much to Spain). The EU will do what is best both for its members and the project as it is demonstrating at the moment, even if that means some pain in order to encourage other members not to do similar things. I doubt the German car makers will even exert too much pressure for a market of 6 million people – as ludicrous as the claims made by Brexiteers about them needing us more than we need them are, that goes 10 times for IS.

Do you really think Nicola that stupid? She’s the canniest operator around and certainly won’t be forced into that. A lot of this is actually about establishing a negotiating position.

I don’t suppose the distinction of it being a former member state will matter that much to Spain

aracer – if she didn’t go for a referendum and there was a good chance of winning it then she would be out on her ear. You underestimate the pressure from the fundamentalists in the party.

Its clear that Spains objections would be much less because leaving the UK to remain in ( not join) the EU sets no precedent for catalonia. Plenty of statements to this effect from influential spanish politicians.

I think you also underestimate the joy many European folk would have in sticking up two fingers to the rUK

dragon – Member
Anyone ever feel this thread is like this:

More this…

CFH – na – more this

So she’ll avoid the situation some way or another, because it’s a no win situation for her. It’s not like the polls are anywhere close to forcing her that way at the moment, and they won’t move in that direction without her input…

The noises Spain is making (such as they are) are on the basis of a friendly split, not a UDI – the dangerous precedent would be set following a UDI whatever the relative position within the EU, attitudes would change somewhat.

Now you really are sounding like a Brexiteer. I’m not sure the average European is all that bothered about sticking their fingers up at us, and any impression coming that way is mainly on the basis of realpolitik dictating that the split cannot be favourable to the country leaving. Not that I’m sure most of those who might want to stick their fingers up have even heard of Scotland 😈

Everyone hates the English so why not?

aracer – I have read the quotes. Remember I am a political geek and follow all this stuff from multiple sources

Good stuff! THM has reverted to type.

Everybody hates the English

Maybe coming up here and calling people “sweaties” has given you a false impression of Scottish hostility in the first instance? I mean, you frequently cite it( hostility)as a main reason for the independence movement. 45% of the population ( more now) voting yes because they hate the English! Or is it maybe 25% and 20% swallowing YS lies?

I think you also underestimate the joy many European folk would have in sticking up two fingers to the rUK

Nobody really gives a shit about sticking anything to the UK. Most people are surprised by the brexit vote and don’t want to give the UK concessions (they chose to leave, why should we be disadvantaged?) and more are concerned about what happens to friends/family in the UK or the British people they know living in their countries. But sticking it to the UK, not really a main topic over here in Euroland.

Bliimey duckie, will you ever get over the sweaty flower song – you got your prize, so move on. Your getting as bad as the chief troll.

But to your point, It would be easier if valid, logical and factually supported arguments were presented instead of the on-going “deluded” (TY Alex Bell) or “mistaken” (TY Stilglitz)) nonsense that keeps being peddled by yS supporters. Otherwise one is left with the obvious conclusion regarding one of the main motives here – its as naked as the Brexit xenophobia – it doesn’t matter if the Emperors New Clothes are branded taking control, even little kids, well especially little kids, can see through them.

In the last few pages we have had the recycling of old BS such as UDI, it’s not our debt, it’s not our deficit, we can jus walk away etc. Total BS used to disguise the real motive – or simple people really are being that irgnorant/gullible – you decide. But even AS didn’t take his lies that far.

For the record, everyone hates the english was obviously tongue in cheek to reflect the crassness of the arguments

The deficit is actually a good example of how numbers can be used to hide the situation.

For example, there’s a proposal that the government could pay billions of pounds to let the City keep its passporting system with Europe after Brexit. That’s billions from UK taxpayers – hundreds of millions from Scotland.

And that then shows up on the deficit side of Scotland’s account under GERS.

Scotland pays for the City of London to get a better deal than we get, and it looks bad on our balance sheet because of it.

Scotland pays for the City of London to get a better deal than we get

That’s a very simplistic way of looking at it.

Yes Ben and that proposal (as flawed as it is admittedly, but that’s another debate) has no positive benefit for Scottish banks or the Scots who work in London? And just imagine what would happen to level of government spending in Scotland if they tax revenues from the City (and it’s wider effect) were lost.

Mol sums it up perfectly.

I am surprised that you can spout such bollocks about deep fried food, Mel Gibson etc,not to mention your ban for constant reference to “Sweaties” (Wasn’t me btw, but well deserved imo.)..and then push allegations about xenophobia.

Obviously not 😯

This whole “aww why don’t we get as much money as London” is nonsense.

I might spend £400 on getting the cambelt done on my car, but only say £100 on rear shocks. Is this fair? Why does the engine get more spent on it than the suspension? Surely the back half of the car should get the same as the front half? So I should get super duper shocks for £250 and get a cheap mechanic to fit a cheap cambelt and leave the old pulleys on – might get that done for £250. Perfectly fair solution isn’t it?

Anyway – side track, but that’s the kind of flawed thinking we get on these kinds of debates and it annoys the crap out of me.

Anyway – side track, but that’s the kind of flawed thinking we get on these kinds of debates and it annoys the crap out of me.

True but that is what makes them equally amusing, appalling and compelling 😉

Molgips

Lots of examples on this. For example crossrail. Paid for with UK money ie scotland pays for part of it but the A9 dualling is paid for only by scotland ie only paid for from Scotlands budget. Many many examples of this.

I think that the charge that Westminster is just code for the English is wrong.

I think that a lot of English people are very frustrated with the democratic deficit in Westminster as well. It led us to the situation we’re in now where a junta of lunatics is hell bent on driving us off a cliff and there’s not a whole lot we can do about it.

Even if the courts manage to force the issue to go to parliament there’s no guarantee that they won’t vote for a hard Brexit anyway given the way the first past the post system gives a dis-proportionally large say to a government that a minority of the population voted for.

I used to be in favour of first past the post because it made MPs accountable to their constituents rather than their party. If that ever was the case then it’s certainly not now. The vast majority of folk can’t even name their MP and seem to think they’re voting for the PM.

The role of the PM has become more and more presidential to the extent that people might as well be voting directly for the PM.

So the democratic deficit is affecting the whole country and yet there is absolutely no sign that it’s going to change. This is why you get the argument, “But it’s the same for us, most people aren’t getting the government they voted for.” and these people are absolutely right.

The thing is the Scots do have a way out of this not fit for purpose shit-storm of a political system by voting for independence. For the English and Welsh people who are frustrated I’m sorry, I feel for you, but don’t begrudge us the fact we’ve got a way out and you don’t.

Spot on Bruce

I am a Briton. I voted yes with a very heavy heart but I did so because I want a progressive government accountable to the electorate. I was very sad at the prospect of leaving my friends in the north of england in the lurch

How do the folk in the Shetlands and Orkneys (and elsewhere) feel about democratic deficit? Or does that simply get swept under the carpet? The same arguments get repeated within Scotland as they do here.

As you move from solo existence to living in communities of greater size and complexity, you gain some benefits but lose some independence. You become interdependent and better for it. But there are compromises – but to focus only on the costs (see the example two posts above or the BS posted by Brexiteers and a them and us attitude simple shows a lack of understanding of existence beyond a very selfish bubble – how odd that this is the mirror image of the accusation made towards Westminster!! Well not odd at all.

As the two reports I have linked suggest, Scotland has benefitted greatly from an increase in devolved power bring an element of federal existence already, but there is never enough cake it there?

How about using those powers first and dealing with the weaker economic growth, challenges in Scotlands NHS and the wider educational inequalities first. Blaming others only goes so far, even “Presidential” heads of devolved governments have to roll their sleeves up and take responsibility and accountability.