Scotland Indyref 2

When we did this last time Duncan it seemed pretty much every link was biased one way or the other. I think it’s basically impossible to unpick how much indigenous GDP Scotland actually has, hence the variation in estimates. A lot of money made in Scotland is by UK businesses, and no-one knows what would happen to them after Scexit.

And what does that have to do with Scotland

Because it shows that being upset about Brexit isn’t a thing reserved for people in Scotland.

@molgrips that’s sort of my point.

So many TaX variables and complexity that I don’t think it can be unpicked.

Nevermind things like the issue of goods crossing borders etc.

Yes it’ll completely depend on the future trading relationship and we won’t know what that will be. A key difference between now and 2014 is that we now know a lot more about countries putting up barriers and how it works (or doesn’t).

I mean, rUK companies may well not be able to on-shore all the work that is currently done in Scotland, we don’t even have enough people now. But as we’ve seen people don’t always react pragtmatically.

Because it shows that being upset about Brexit isn’t a thing reserved for people in Scotland.

And? This is the point. Its not about england. Its about self determination and representative government for scotland. What is happing in england is nothing to do with this

So we are back to “too poor”

There is no reason why Scotland cannot be a prosperous county with a representative government and policies to suit. Other countries manage to do so without the advantages Scotland has

Thought experiment. If Scotland left the UK and joined the EU, and then in 30 years’ time the EU develops into the United States of Europe run from Brussels, would you then campaign to leave?

really am, you’ve not left me anything left to say other than ‘ok then’ which I’m not going to say cos I don’t agree. You’re just insisting I agree with you, which isn’t the same as discussing an issue 🙂

Becuse everything i say you just refuse to listen or atempt to understand. I have spent a lot of time and effort over time attempting to explian and you just go no no.no all nationalists are nasty and wrong

Its pointless attempting any more until ypu accpt ypu dont undetstand and are prepared to listen

But you’ve defined ‘self’ as Scotland, not the UK. You could have chosen either, but you chose Scotland. That’s why it’s nationalism.

Scotland is my country. Yes its nationalism but its diametrically opposed to the type of nationalism that you thinkmit is. Its not driven by negativity
Its a positve vision

You just returned to ” all nationalists are nazis.” Thanks if you understood Scotland you would understand this is false

There is no reason why Scotland cannot be a prosperous county with a representative government and policies to suit. Other countries manage to do so without the advantages Scotland has

Indeed but they’ve always been separate to or almost alway before you shout Slovenia..

So any of these small but successful countries been an a union like the UK for so long?

No reason is not the same as will be.

But you’ve defined ‘self’ as Scotland, not the UK. You could have chosen either, but you chose Scotland. That’s why it’s nationalism.

If it’s either the UK or Scotland it’s nationalism, so if you want to frame it that way, crack on. Perfectly valid to a degree. But it’s a choice between british nationalism and scottish nationalism. And your argument for british nationalism, is well, cause it’s been like that for the last 300 year. Which aye, fair enough. But there’s also another distinct difference, and that is a geographical difference and that Scotland has fostered a fairly large Scottish identity for a long time, that may or may not be in a majority. It’s identity politics really. But so is remaining British. I mean like I thought I was European till a year ago. So what’s sacrosanct about Britishness?

Sometimes I think, we’re best to do something like a ten year plan, giving away bits of British sovereignty, piece by piece, every year, till independence is a reality.

Like a stepped independence, then at the end of it, have a referendum, and ask is this what you want? Or do you want to negotiate back a few levels or stick and go through that process for a few years.

Seems a fairly democratic answer to the question to me tbh.

It’d probably be a fairly stable way to do it for Scotland and rUK. Absolutely nothing to say it has to be a disaster for anyone nor acrimonious.

…

Stretching my historical knowledge a fair bit.

Ireland became an independent nation 100 years ago after hundreds of years in the UK

Finland similarly iirc. Gained independence 100 odd years ago after hundreds of years of bing a part of other countries

Belgium uesed to be half dutch and half of it french but i have no.idea how long ago. Mind you they have a seperatist movement to split it again.

Is the nationalism that led to ireland becoming an idependent state wrong?

Stretching my historical knowledge a fair bit.

Ireland became an independent nation 100 years ago after hundreds of years in the UK

Finland similarly iirc. Gained independence 100 odd years ago after hundreds of years of bing a part of other countries

Scotland and Ireland have very different histories. Scotland was never colonised per se and today all Scottish people get the same vote as anyone else in the UK. IIRC Ireland had very limited representation in Parliament, especially for the Catholics, and it wasn’t even until the 20th century that everyone in the UK got to vote.

Duncan. I am.not at my computer but i did see a good article on the financial stuff the ither day. If i can find it ill post it

Duncan. Clearly a biased viewpoint but some good nomber crunch. Treat as a discussion piece rather than absolutes. Remember the GERS figures were deliberately made to understate scotlands fiscal position as the minister at the time Lang iirc made clear

I have reaD lots of analysis of gers but i am not a good enoigh number cruncher to unpick.it all

Manipulation Via GERS

The Indisputable Thievery of the UK Union!

@tjagain

All that fiscal stuff is based on the petroleum all ‘belonging’ to Scotland.

That’s all in the past.

London is the engine of the UK economy. It’s very hard to believe that Scotland is now a net contributor to the Treasury.

It’s very hard to believe that Scotland is now a net contributor to the Treasury.

So why does the prospect of an iScotland anger you so much? You’d have more cash in England, and Scotland would have independence. Everyone would win, no?

Hard to believe because of a
40 years of prropaganda ? 90% of the oil is scotlands

If Scotland is a basket case as you think then its hardly an advert for the union. Scotland being a basket case would show that Westminster economic policies dont work for Scotland

If your basis for fiscal long term stability is oil that’s not ideal. Hence that report isn’t going to be ideal. You could swap it for renewable. Who’s gonna buy our power though. How do you export it and to who? How do you fund that infrastructure?

I live in Scotland, I’ve Scottish relatives and I’m sympathetic to the cause

I was also sympathetic to why people wanted brexit.

I’m just not convinced that all the positives will be realistic and what will be realised are the negatives.

I’d also seriously question the timing, do you want a dolop of uncertainty when the world is in its biggest state of flux in 80yrs.

I just see a gamble with not a lot to win and a lot to lose.

I just see a gamble with not a lot to win and a lot to lose.

Whereas to me its a choice of certain economic failure remaining in the UK v a decent chance of sucess as independent.

Independence would allow Scotland to rejoin the EUwhich would be a huge economic boon and to persue poli ies to make Scotland a better place to live

Renewables? Scottish progress on renewables has been stifled by two things. The rigged market in energy in the uk and the inability of Scotland ( and the refusal from Westminster) to invest

Access charges to the grid make renewables less economically viable

Its a classic example of how an independent Scotland could do things better

We have also put a lot of new infrastructure in place for them and more is planned

@molgrips that’s sort of my point.

So many TaX variables and complexity that I don’t think it can be unpicked.

Nevermind things like the issue of goods crossing borders etc.

You’ll be gobsmacked to hear about Czechoslovakia…

I think Scotland is prosperous to make it as an independent country, they’re are clearly smaller or equally small countries that are making a perfectly grand living on economies that are smaller (around £190B was the figure I heard last). But all those countries in Europe are geographically linked, have freedom of movement (which Scotland will obviously re-gain) BUT don’t have a hard border – and we know now that the EU will insist on one – across the border with their biggest trading partners.

If Brexit has taught (and should inform the independence discussion post 2016)  this single fact will have huge implications to the quest for Independence, and the SNP are not really talking about it.

Thought experiment. If Scotland left the UK and joined the EU, and then in 30 years’ time the EU develops into the United States of Europe run from Brussels, would you then campaign to leave?

Nope, perfect solution for a small European country.

Of course you add in “run from Brussels” when in reality the EU is about a common consensus and supporting all it’s members (Ireland & Brexit) been the perfect and real example.

What is it that you don’t like about us making our own way?

and the SNP are not really talking about it.

Errmmm. Actually it is discussed. I haven’t watched this clip but its an example of it being discussed

https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-independence-nicola-sturgeon-accepts-need-physical-border-england-scotland-rejoins-eu-971814

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-independent-scotland-border-b1837159.html

How do you export it and to who? How do you fund that infrastructure?

You do know that Scotland is a net exporter of energy?

We also pay significantly larger standing charges for electricity than the south even though that energy is closer to source. The UK policy of pegging energy prices to oil and gas also exposes us the global market forces and geopolitics over which you have little control – worried about the EU’s “interference” in our laws and yet happy for the likes of Putin to control how much money you have?

Funding infrastructure? Access to EU infrastructure funds, loans from other sovereign wealth funds – this is the kind of stuff that attracts large and long scale investment because it’s stable and gives a guaranteed return and underwritten by Government bonds. How else do you think Boris was promising new nuclear power stations – because it wasn’t coming from UK investors?

This is exactly the stuff where the UK has failed and why the economy is suffering because they are too focussed on ideology, stuffing their mates’ pockets and short-term political cycles. I sat in committee rooms in the HoC 20 years ago where investors and industry were pleading for a long-term strategy for energy and investment from Government – it hasn’t happened because it’s boring and doesn’t create jobs in the right constituencies.

You just returned to ” all nationalists are nazis.”

Well I can see why you’re annoyed if you think that’s what I’m saying. I apologise for not putting my point across clearly enough, but that’s not where I’m going with this.

As I see it there are three reasons for separatism. And whilst I don’t live in Scotland I do live in Wales where the same issue exists.

1. Pragmatic nationalism – this is the idea I can get behind, which is that the UK is so badly run and the political system is so flawed that it is always going to lead to bad results. So you want out – fine.

2. Sentimental nationalism – the romantic idea of a proud people governing themselves. I mean yeah, that’s nice and all, but it’s just vanity really and it can have serious negative consequences. I think that the ‘we’ve been oppressed for too long’ line comes in this category because I don’t think the Scots are being actually oppressed currently. Sure, lots of money is going to London but as the capital of the UK that’s inevitable, it’s what capitals are all about. People in Wales complain about money going to Cardiff just the same.

3. Anti-English (in this case) sentiment – you (TJ) may not feel this but I’m pretty sure a lot of people in Scotland and Wales do.

I am fairly sure that most people feel some combination of these three – I know I do – so what I am trying to do is explore through questions where our views actually come from. Really, honestly, deep down. And I say ‘our’ here because it applies to the Welsh as well.

What is it that you don’t like about us making our own way?

Well if you read back I’m edging towards supporting a Yes vote although I don’t have one myself. What I don’t like about the Scots WANTING to make their own way are points 2 and 3 in my list because they are largely bullshit, divisive, destructive and unpleasant at some level. But they have to be balanced against point 1 in the specific UK situation which for me is a massive positive.

Every time you use terms like ‘self determination’ and ‘going our own way’ etc you are reinforcing those ideas to some extent because you are choosing ‘us’ and ‘self’ to be Scotland rather than the UK. You are British, wether you like it or not, but you’re actively rejecting that in favour of considering yourself Scottish. Why?

Errmmm. Actually it is discussed.

Being asked questions, and answering with “political speech” – this sort of nonsense:  “We will put in place arrangements and we will negotiate those arrangements for the UK that means that businesses do not, in a practical sense, suffer from any of that.”

Is, with respect, not really discussing it, it’s avoiding it.

I’m aware we export energy. Mainly south.

Scotland could Re join Europe. Could…. not would.

Was the Czech Republic in the centre of Europe and neighbouring it’s trading partners or was it remote with a potential hard border with its conjoined island sibling.

I’m not saying it’s not feasible. I’m just seeing loads of shiny spin. I see people selling the dream with no thought to what if.

What would happen if we had a hard border and Europe told us to bugger off? Unlikely but possible.

I don’t often agree with @molgrips but here I do. I see a lot of romanticism clouding peoples objectivity and that scares me.

The current uk bias isn’t right but also look at it if you leave and you cause damage to say Wales or England that’s avoidable by staying is that worth the cost?

I don’t often agree with @molgrips but here I do. I see a lot of romanticism clouding peoples objectivity and that scares me.

I just ignore the romanticism, you read some stuff on here and think Scotland is some left leaning utopia, having spent more than half my life there it has a good side and a bad side, that bad side isn’t just going to disappear.

As i’ve said before, just now the only people who know how they’re voting are either voting through romanticism, or pro-unionists, the rest are actually waiting to see what are the actual benefits of independence, people can say ‘we can do our own tax, spending, etc’, but all those people in the middle just now worry about is how much money they actually have in their pocket, they don’t want to pay more tax, or see spending on areas that don’t help them in some way, they want to see a future that will mean they do better long term, not worse, and no evidence has been put forward for either yet.

You are British, wether you like it or not, but you’re actively rejecting that in favour of considering yourself Scottish. Why?

Because Scotland is my country and my home. England has moved so far away from the values i cherish that it has become a forign coutry to me

I can assure you molgrips that anti english sentiment is a very small part of it

Again you show your lack of understanding

The main drivers for acots independence are positve and outward looking not driven by fear or hatred but by a desire to do better

@agree

This mate much more succinctly put than I could manage.

@tj England had moved so far away for huge swages of the population. By that token surely its better to work together and resolve issues. You’ll always have unhappy people as everything’s a compromise.

What compromises would you be happy with with an indy Scotland?

Unfortunately we are yet again another Binary choice that will piss 45% of the population off.

We need to get away from Binary politics and your right I’m wrong. Every issue is nuanced and have various shades of grey

Duncan 40 years experience tells me i cannot have a government i like as a part of the uk. Independence is my only chance.

The fact some English folk feel like i do is irrelevant. They are not in my country

The current uk bias isn’t right but also look at it if you leave and you cause damage to say Wales or England that’s avoidable by staying is that worth the cost?

Irrelevant because they don’t live in my country. Its up to the population of england and wales to decide what they wanr

Was the Czech Republic in the centre of Europe and neighbouring it’s trading partners or was it remote with a potential hard border with its conjoined island sibling.

I used CZ as a direct response to your “unpicking” comment, but you just ignored it. Try again.

As i’ve said before, just now the only people who know how they’re voting are either voting through romanticism, or pro-unionists, the rest are actually waiting to see what are the actual benefits of independence,

Most of my friends are pragmatic nationalists and their minds are made up as we read learn and understand the benefits of having a representative government

tjagain

Renewables? Scottish progress on renewables has been stifled by two things. The rigged market in energy in the uk and the inability of Scotland ( and the refusal from Westminster) to invest

I’d like to know what basis you think Westminster has refused to invest in renewables?

Also, policy wise, due to UK Gov commitment for renewables/low carbon to make up 95% of UK power by 2030, the UK is now rated as the third best place after the US and China for private investment.