Scotland Indyref 2

Is Spain going to veto it? That’s the question for me.

Again i want to hear some clarity on that but post bexit it would not set a precedent for Catalonia thus no need for a Spanish veto . Words to that effect have come from Spain

The EU this time around will be able to give clarity this time round as the UK is no longer a member. Last time round Westminster refused to ask. I wonder why?

Argee. I put a link to the accession criteria and quoted the relevant part

The acccession criteria is here https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/enlargement-policy/glossary/accession-criteria_en, Scotland as an independent country will have to provide assurance against that criteria, there is no previous, the only previous is as part of the UK. The EU have to carry out the negotiations after the candidate has applied, has been approved through the vote and then completed the negotiations.

Nobody knows the timeline for this, and then after this you have the Euro process, this needs to be fleshed out before any vote to actually provide those voting the options available post independence.

Imo the main issue with iScotland rejoining the EU is we would have to have the euro.

Not quite. Any new member has to commit to joining the Euro. That can only be done after the currency used in that country has met the Convergence Criteria via the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. If that currency never meets those criteria, never joins the EMS, then that country cannot become part of the Eurozone.

Any new member has to commit to joining the Euro.

In order to meet that criteria, they also would have to have their own currency and central bank. Scotland has neither of those things, and I can’t for a moment think that the EU would allow a prospective member to use the currency of a former member that has left somewhat acrimoniously, over which they have no control.

In fact I could see a situation where the EU would offer a fast track deal if Scotland started using the Euro in preference over Sterling.

Yep, so the process would be;

1 Join the EU
2 Decide on a non-GBP currency
3 Join the ERM
4 Meet convergence criteria
5 Join the Eurozone

1 and 2 could happen in either order or simultaneously. And that non-GBP currency could actually be the Euro. As with Sterling, there is nothing to stop any non-EU country adopting the Euro as their currency.

Weirdly the one benefit of the Euro will be the biggest negative for Scotland, that of not having to exchange currency, so again, it’ll be down to the benefits provided for either side of the argument, as stated by scotroutes, you don’t have to actually join the Euro, just commit, lots of countries within the EU are still in that process, where they probably won’t even move over, largest being Poland i think.

😳

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 48% (+1)
No: 47% (-2)

via @Panelbase
Chgs. w/ Aprhttps://t.co/Gfag4ItnNR

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 2, 2022

Weirdly the one benefit of the Euro will be the biggest negative for Scotland, that of not having to exchange currency,

Guess you are referring to the fact that the biggest trading partner is still likely to be rUK so there’d be more currency hassles with the Euro than if they adopted GBP.

I wonder where I could move to in Scotland?

I wonder where I could move to in Scotland?

We don’t want you

I wonder where I could move to in Scotland?

There was a thread this week with lots of suggestions.

We don’t want you

Do they want you?

Just been on Rightmove, looks like Perth is still the ideal spot except for trails.

Just been on Rightmove, looks like Perth is still the ideal spot except for trails

Kinoull hill, deuchry woods, pitmedden, etc all nearby, then you have all the riding between Perth up to dunkeld and then dunkeld 😁

You wont like it, locals are horrible.

Its why after 12 years im still not leaving…

We would be back in quite quickly

See, there it is again – certainty. It’s comments like this, that make me hugely suspicious of every pro independence claim!

Yep. We could be back in quite quickly. Arguably, the sooner independence comes, the easier it will be as many of the pre-requisites will still be in place. However, that depends on a few other things, like (a) will the PoS (People of Scotland) want to join the EU? (b) will the EU want Scotland? (c) the negotiations. As said above though, there is no queue in the normal sense. There are a number of countries wanting to join but it’s not that membership has to take place in any particular order. Some countries will be nearer to EU harmonisation than others.

Mistyped It was meant to be “could”

Argee. We meet the accession criteria. How can we not? We have not diverged since we were members.

On currency. What happened with Slovenia at the breakup of Yugoslavia? They joined very quickly but i have no idea what money they used in the short interim.

Gauss. Its just my opinion. I dont speak for anyone but me

will the EU want Scotland?

The border with rUK is the main issue/sticking point as far as I can see. Who could blame the EU for wanting to avoid all the hassle that would go along with that?! It’s hard to imagine (assuming the Tories are still in power) the rUK government being anything other than absolute arseholes and totally vindictive.

Meh. It’s all up for grabs. We’ve no way of knowing the relative positions of the EU or rUK in the timescale we’re talking about. While I don’t disagree with your view of a possible future, I could just as easily paint one where everything is rosy – change of UK Govt, home truths of Brexit, resolution of the NI issue, access to Scotlands energy/water etc etc. It’s uncertain but no need to always look on the most pessimistic side. 🙂

Argee. We meet the accession criteria. How can we not? We have not diverged since we were members.

Since the UK was a member, an independent Scotland will have to set up its own structure, there isn’t much issue with Scotland achieving compliance, but they have to create the construct to be assessed first.

What construct?

Glad you agree there is little issue with compliance

but no need to always look on the most pessimistic side

Sorry, you’re correct – you’d struggle to find a more pessimistic (and cautious) person 🙁
There would be no going back though, if everything went pear shaped (whatever that might look like. However,maybe it wouldn’t be as bad as I fear, even if it didn’t go‘smoothly’).
Sometimes I think I’m coming around to the idea.

My prediction is that an Independent Scotland will adopt the Euro before it becomes an EU member, if it ever becomes a member. I fully expect Scotland to adopt a very unique status… in the single market and the common travel area like Ireland, using the Euro as its currency, but not becoming a full member due to the need to have special arrangements with England (and Wales). Shops in both Scotland and England excepting two currencies will just be shrugged at when it happens. No big deal, payment providers will be happy to oblige for a small fee. All much easier in the near cashless societies we are becoming.

The border with rUK is the main issue/sticking point as far as I can see. Who could blame the EU for wanting to avoid all the hassle that would go along with that?! It’s hard to imagine (assuming the Tories are still in power) the rUK government being anything other than absolute arseholes and totally vindictive.

Its never really seemed a credible thing to say “oh well just join the EU easy, all problems solved, no it doesnt matter about our biggest by far trading partner, well just trade more elsewhere”*

If the pro Indy campaign does** take that line, or anything close to it, and not just some random cyclist on a forum then a may well change my vote.

Seems far more reasonable to plan to be out of the EU for some considerable time but with better operational relationships than the **** in Downing Street are managing.

*Ive heard this before somewhere…
**Frankly im tired of having to deal with society changing shit. I’ll pay attention to the sales pitch nearer the time. So i may well have missed something.

For me EU membership and the euro asap is both necessary and desirable. It would provide a bulwark and support as part of the larger European economy. It would save all the costs and risks associated with the scotttish pooond. ( although a scottis pooond woul be a relatvly strong currency because of the oil)

I also believe strongly in the philosophy of a united europe.

Its not a view universally shared

The other thing to note is some of the decisions will be made by the first post independence government. The snp can only suggest what route to take. Of course the other parties will not make their own suggestions for a post independence Scotland having nailed their flags to the preservation of the umion at all costs and refusing to envision anything else.

Labour in Scotland contine their march into obscurity having nothing positive to say ever and their anti snp alliance with the tories damages labour more each day

I find it intensely frustration the lack of positive action in any direction from labour but until they split from london and start to produce policies for scotland and a sensible position on the constitution they will just gently slide further into irrelevance. Their attack line should be ” good policy but too timid. Do this as well or instead” rather than just shouting SNP baaaaaad all the time. Similarly on the constitution they need something between keep the malfunctioning status quo and independence now. Look for a better devolution settlement that takes the wind out of the SNPs sails.

Labour in Scotland has forgotten who the enemy is. Their pacts with the tories shows this. How can the labour party work with tories but refuse to do so and indeed to block another social democratic party?

oh well just join the EU easy, all problems solved, no it doesnt matter about our biggest by far trading partner, well just trade more elsewhere”

I do think joining the EU will be ok but although it is no magic wand to the border with rUK indeed in some ways makes it harder.

A common travel area like with Ireland solves movement of people.

Trade? Gonna be issues no matter what. A lot depends on how rUK acts. I guess we need to plan for a worst case.

It will however be in rUK best interests to be cooperative. Barriers to trade hurts them as well and this will be after the next uk election so one might hope for a better government in Westminster

Lots of ifs and buts, common travel area is good, but at the cost of the ease of movement within the rest of the UK?

Again, what are the actual potential positives and negatives of joining the EU or the Euro, all the talk is of rejoining, but at what cost, and for what benefit?

It’ll be in the rUK interests to be cooperative, why, the minute independence is real the rUK will be looking after its own interests, as you’d expect, barriers to competition is the least of the worries, the size of any hole left due to withdrawal of infrastructure, contracts, etc and how it’s filled will be more pressing!

Benefits?

To have a government that reflects the wishes of the people of the country i call home. Scotland.

If I could have this in the context of the UK I would prefer that but I cannot. Im 61 and have lived here 40 of those. Rarely have I seen a government in Westminster that comes anywhere close to reflecting the will of the people of Scotland

In more practical terms EU membership in itself is IMO a huge boon.

The ability to set immigration policy to suit our needs.

To set tax and benefits policy

To raise money on international markets

Loads more things a sovereign country can do that Scotland can’t

My judgement is that overall an independent Scotland would be a better place to live in those years I have left

Hence I am a pragmatic independence supporter.

Common travel area encompassing iScotland rUK and Ireland

Common travel area encompassing iScotland rUK and Ireland

Would make sense

A Tory government would probably oppose out of spite, but, if Scotland were offering it, rUK public would surely want it

To have a government that reflects the wishes of the people of the country i call home. Scotland.

You’d get a *system* that more accurately represents the wishes of the people. A subtle but important distinction.

No a government as well. We have had decades of tory rule we have never voted for

Scotland currently votes for social democratic and green parties with a small amount of rural moderate tories. Has done for a long time.

Here is an interesting comparison of Scotland and Ireland – basically the Scottish economy is bigger than Ireland’s, so no reason it could not thrive.

This man McWilliams is good!!
????????? https://t.co/U5HpY7VH3a

— Frances Baylan (@BaylanFrances) July 3, 2022

Well what a load of pish from Starmer and Sarwar on Scotland. How Sarwar can say we need co operation not conflict when labour sulk and moan and complain is doublethink at its finest.

Thats just ended labour in Scotland

The same Anus Sarwar that suspended two Labour Party councillors because they refused to back a deal with the Tories in Edinburgh?

The same one indeed. Its despicable. Did you enjoy the committe of parliaments idea? Both timid and absurd.

Two cheeks of the same arse indeed.

I had hopes for Sarwar but I think he has been nobbled by London. He has certainly changed his tune

I don’t blame the scotts one iota. If I were scottish I’d be really angry right now.

Westmintser is out of control, and all Kier starmer is doing it trying to maintain some sort of status quo.

What we are seeing here it the ulitamte death of the united kingdom with these idiots in charge.

 If I were scottish I’d be really angry right now.

I’m English, and I’m really angry. Although my mum is Scottish, perhaps I’ll apply for a passport if Scotland becomes independent.