Scotland Indyref 2

i_scoff_cake : If you think Brexit was chaotic and caused uncertainty, Scottish independence will be that on steroids. A Scottish government may not even be able to borrow money.

The thought of Scotland having a vote on independence must really annoy you with the amount of utter bile you choose to spew out whenever the idea of independence is mentioned.

Good, we must be doing something right.

@I_scoff_cake Not symbolic really. Scotland is the symbolic bit for me, the trading block the practical bit – and the bigger and freer the better.

and even our other national drink.

Buckfast? Tenennts Super?

Absolutely nobody (except maybe Russia) is going to get behind Scotland on a questionable referendum.

Apart from there are numerous examples in international politics of referenda being organised without ” permission ” from the national parliament. Ertrea is one. Self determination is written into un law iirc

A tory nobody explaining it

?‍♂️ A bizarre clip of Murdo Fraser revealing some of the many reasons why the Tories at Westminster don’t want Scotland to become independent. pic.twitter.com/ThA5PFAaJQ

— Ross Colquhoun (@rosscolquhoun) June 18, 2022

I am distinctly underwhelmed by the proposals tho. Very weak imo and i doubt enough to get a vote held. I had hoped for a better idea from the snp.

I understand the desire I’m just concerned of the practicalities. Much like brexit.

Currency
Armed Forces and with it Nato etc
Borders?

For a few.

It’d ause the pound to weaken further in my opinion pushing things like fuel up even further.

On the brink of a global recession abd termoil throwing another variable in seems like poor timing to say the least.

What would the political landscape look like? How would the Snp split as independence is their entire remit.

Ertrea is one

Not the best example, can we have one where press freedom isnt ranked lower than North Korea.

proposals

I actually havent seen these yet, anyone got a sensible level headed link assessing them from either side of the divide?

Buckfast? Tenennts Super?

@jodafett I assume you’re either kidding or from another planet, but stick “your other national drink” into Google and see what comes up (in Yorkshire anyway, so the Googleness spreads outside Scotland).
Do report back. 😉

Its just dog whistle SNP politics, not much different from the government, instead of the culture war the Tories think is helping their vote the SNP have an independence war, it’s still government by opulist division and sod the consequences.

The practical issues and downsides of Scottish independence got a whole lot worse with Brexit, it’ll be NI on steroids.

Rather than aim for a fantasy independence which would be a nightmare the SNP should be trying to bolster the Scottish position in Westminster and actually enacting local policy, their track record on the latter isnt great from what I can see, far to easy to blame Westminster (although with Boris in charge it must be very tempting).

It’ll be tough no doubt, but at least the SNP have a handy example of all things not to do after the vote courtesy of the Tories!

I really think the prospect of No/Better Together winning another referendum are vastly underpriced

This is what worries me, im not sure theres enough minds left to be changed to swing it, although right now it does look like flipping a coin as far as probability goes. But then, I alway seem to take a more pessimistic view.

Im also not convinced the timing isnt simply down to internal SNP politics.

How many people think as one of my neighbours does with “FFS again, can we just not have some normal for a bit”? (Ive no idea btw)

“Nicola Sturgeon has also revealed her plan C. If this referendum doesn’t happen, she’ll fight the next UK election on the single issue of independence.” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61968607

What is she saying?
a) There’s only one issue for the Scottish people
b) I’ve tried to sort health, education, etc out for years, failed and I don’t have any ideas left
c) I want to chuck it in; it’s easier to get elected to power than it is to run a country (see b above)

Given that every law expert I’ve read has said that this is not going to go anywhere, and because Sturgeon has suggested that if the decisions doesn’t go the way she wants then she’ll campaign on independence in the next election…I can’t see that this is anything other than the SNP gearing up for the next election. This seems to serve two purposes. 1. to make the claim to supporters that they’re trying every angle (even the ones they know aren’t going anywhere) and 2. Make Labour’s job in any upcoming election even harder.

Sturgeon has said all along that the vote to become independent has got to be “legally valid and internationally recognised” re-entry to the EU would clearly be ‘problematic’ otherwise. This isn’t going to get her any closer to Section 30 – by her own admission the ‘gold standard’

A hung parliament at Westminster with a huge SNP block might be perfect for Sturgeon – and potentially foreseeable.
The single issue will be to ensure the largest block by splitting the pro-union vote between Con, LibDem and Lab.

Then negotiate from there.  Possibly a federal UK arrangement now with Holyrood having the legal right to call referendums in the future, but agreeing not to use it for Westminster parliament.

Wouldn’t have helped in the Con-DUP arrangement because it was Tories and the numbers were small, but Labour and slightly bigger numbers.

That help as a potential game plan?

That seems likely igm. It’s never straightforward these days is it?

Yes, I think so, I think the SNP are resigned to Johnson saying no, but the block support of the SNP to enable Labour to get into power with the promise of a section 30 after the next GE. That I can see.

the SNP have an independence war, it’s still government by opulist division

You do realise that independence isn’t a new SNP policy, don’t you? Populism or not, it’s been a long term stated aim of the party, they’re just attempting to achieve what they’ve told their voters they want to achieve when they asked for their vote. It’s not a manufactured division, it’s a long established core policy.

What I’m says makes sense to me.

I sometimes feel that she doesn’t want independence and is using the threat as leverage

I think the idea ( tho its reasonably widely held) that Sturgeon does not want independence but is mendacious in her motvations is daft.

She is elected on a platform of seeking independence and has a majority of msps and scots mps withher. Thats a democratic manadte to hold another referendum

A democratic mandate is not, rightly or wrongly, a legal one.

Sturgeon is threatening this, and leveraging that, the best she can to align the democratic and legal mandates.

Then and only then does she get the independence she wants I think. And probably not just the referendum because when those two align the referendum probably sails through (or the democratic mandate failed at that point).

piemonster
Free Member

Ertrea is one

Not the best example, can we have one where press freedom isnt ranked lower than North Korea.

Probably the one example the SNP won’t want being made about their plans 😂

piemonster Free Member
Im also not convinced the timing isnt simply down to internal SNP politics.

There does seem to have been mutterings to that effect – on this thread, at least. Sturgeon seems to be a cautious incrementalist in her approach to independence, wanting the conditions to be right and for a yes vote to be all but a certainty, but it sounds like there’s a lot of pressure from the more radical side of the SNP to secure independence sooner than she thinks is possible.

Sturgeon’s calculation may be that even if she doesn’t secure a referendum this plan will satisfy enough of the radicals that she is doing her best to get one and so she will keep a lid on the factional divides with the SNP for a while longer.

Sturgeon does not want independence but is mendacious in her motvations is daft.

She is elected on a platform of seeking independence and has a majority of msps and scots mps withher. Thats a democratic manadte to hold another referendum

Whether she wants one or not, she was elected on a mandate to make one happen

Sturgeon’s calculation may be that even if she doesn’t secure a referendum this plan will satisfy enough of the radicals that she is doing her best to get one and so she will keep a lid on the factional divides with the SNP for a while longer.

Not a chance. She has used a lot of political capital delaying the vote this long. I think if there is no referendum by the date set she will be ousted.

There’s something going on, it just seems a bad time to be aiming for a vote, so much going on in the world, a general election will be looming in 2024, the current recession/inflation/abject misery issues and so on, i’d have thought 2025 would be a good year, if the tories get back in or a hung parliament.

But to be fair, the other side of the argument is that the longer the SNP are the party in government for Scotland, the more it will just affect their chances, people rarely remember the good, so all the negativity of the SNP/Greens will be used against them, 2014 really was their year to do it, but the reality is that a lot of people fear change and learn to accept the current climate.

so much going on in the world

And so much going on in the UK. And between UK and the RoW. The “be quiet and let the UK government handle this mess for you” isn’t a great argument for people who might think the UK government are going to keep making things worse rather than better.

2014 was a world away, pre brexit, pre the Tories shift further to the right, Cameron was way more popular in Scotland than Johnson is, I’d say SNPs best hope is that Johnson limps on to lead the No campaign!
The Tories are an English Nationalist party under Johnson.

There’s something going on, it just seems a bad time to be aiming for a vote, so much going on in the world, a general election will be looming in 2024, the current recession/inflation/abject misery issues and so on, i’d have thought 2025 would be a good year, if the tories get back in or a hung parliament.

2025 a good year for what?

I dont think theres going to be a good year in the next decade so not much point waiting for one

The UK government is undoubtedly making a serious mess of thjngs, Scottish independence will be an order of magnitude worse for Scotland at least, it won’t be great for the rest of the UK either as we all wade through an acrimonious break up and spend who knows how much time and effort on procedural stuff rather than dealing with the real and present crisis facing us all. Bit like a Brexit a completely avoidable own goal.

rather than dealing with the real and present crisis facing us all. Bit like a Brexit

The way I see it is if we remain in the UK we are in for a lot more of the same,rather than adding to our woes independence is the only chance we have to start dealing with our problems

A huge issue is negotiating with a UK gov that uses the current playbook. Pretty much like about what you’re willing to do then go back on it anyway.

the only chance we have to start dealing with our problems

Specifically what?

For a start we can begin negotiations with the EU/EFTA/EEA on a basis of trust rather than spite.

A huge issue is negotiating with a UK gov that uses the current playbook. Pretty much like about what you’re willing to do then go back on it anyway.

That’s an issue for any country negotiating with UK now!

The SNP at least have a solid example of how not to go about negotiations- the years of political turmoil since 2016 are mostly down to the Brexiteers complete absence of any sort of plan for what to do if they won- not helped by promising a different Brexit to everyone that voted for it!

I’m still in the fence as to whether or not I’d vote for it if I lived there, but I kind of hope for a yes vote in some ways. It would stir things up, which needs to happen.

Then maybe Wales would follow with the promise of a Scottish/Welsh and maybe even Irish cooperation.

Then maybe Wales would follow with the promise of a Scottish/Welsh and maybe even Irish cooperation.

Christ i hope not, could you imagine the carnage that would have around areas such as the southeast of Wales, most of those places like Caldicot, Chepstow, Newport and so on are commuting towns to Bristol for a lot of people, the Welsh border as well is way more erratic than the Scottish border.

Would i need to take my passport on rides in Staunton as well, where i’d be crossing the border several times, especially as the good stuff is all on the Welsh side 😁

most of those places like Caldicot, Chepstow, Newport and so on are commuting towns to Bristol for a lot of people

Yeah that’s the kind of think I was trying to point out earlier 🙂 Not to mention the huge number of people in Cardiff working in call centres for English based companies!

Which is also an issue for Scotland too I think – a significant part of the GDP numbers from Scotland must be from Scottish workers for UK-wide companies, most of whose customers are in England.

Companies are multinational shock!

Lots of folk work for companies, even call centres, that serve other countries.

The IT desk that serves our computer used to be in India, though bizarrely since Brexit it’s now in Poland.