Scotland Indyref 2

@kimbers

Nobody is stopping you from campaigning to rejoin the EU.

I really think the prospect of No/Better Together winning another referendum are vastly underpriced. For all the talk and clamour for independence, Yes is still hovering around the 50% mark (possibly less now). Even wee Ruthie said they need to be polling around 60% to get it over the line, and they aren’t. A dreadful dreadful Westminster government, Johnson at the helm, a brexit disaster and shrivelling economy, appalling treatment of refugees, all the talk of ECHR withdrawal etc etc etc yet still only 50%. It’s hard to see where the numbers come from now, barring some hitherto unimaginable tory ghastliness appearing. And to be honest, I would expect support to soften with the slightest wiff of a Labour government.

I’m not saying it’s unwinnable for yes, far from it. The polling before the 2014 referendum was way lower than the final result but the last few percent seems incredibly difficult to persuade.

Britons continue to think that Brexit is going badly

Going well: 16%
Going badly: 54%
Neither: 20%

That 54% is for the whole of the UK… it’s 68% for Scotland.

Who knows if an Indie Scotland would join the EU… my money would be on them not doing so for a long time, if at all, but joining in on other collaborations that include freeing up trade and people. But whatever happens, the turmoil of the last 6 years (and the 6 to come) is a negative for union sentiment… even those who wouldn’t want Scotland to rejoin the EU won’t be thanking the UK government for the manner of our leaving, and its effects on Scotland.

I think that’s it. Brexit has persuaded many innately pro-union Scots that the Union with England (and it is particularly England, when you consider the NI position and the general ethnicity of Brexy voters in Wales) is a millstone round Scotland’s neck.

Now that may or may not be true, but the present rabble at Westminster do themselves very few favours.

@i_scoff_cake

Youre very much missing the point

(Johnson’s hard) Brexit made indyref2 inevitible & its made a Yes vote more likely, on top of that Johnsons corruption is the gift that just keeps on giving for the indy cause

If you voted for either Johnson or Brexit and didnt think this was a likely outcome, well…..

@kimbers

It may have made the SNP want to hold another indyref, but, despite the appeal to the supreme court, it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster.

That puts them in the same situation as Catalonia in 2017.

That puts them in the same situation as Catalonia in 2017.

I think the SNP would absolutely love to see wetsminster try & resolve that the same way

despite the appeal to the supreme court, it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster

Do remember that what the law says you have a right to do and what politics enables you to strongarm folk into allowing you to do are not the same thing.
I doubt she cares if she wins at the Supreme Court.

I doubt she cares if she win at the Supreme Court.

I reckon she’d love it if the High Court down in London court dictates to the scotish parliament that theyre not allwoed another ref

it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster

If it is deemed to be legal then that’s all that matters.

scotroutes
Full Member
it looks unlikely that they will be able to hold one that is recognised by Westminster

If it is deemed to be legal then that’s all that matters.

If it’s deemed illegal, that matters more.

Either way, it’s a position that needs to be resolved.

Defo. will be fun and games.

It might not be resolvable. The court might say that holding a poll is a political not legal decision, and not rule on it, leading to all other parties refusing to get involved in campaigning or voting. The matter of it being for Westminster to enact independence will still be a legal matter though. That is… the government in Scotland could hold a poll the result of which means nothing to the UK Government that can legally just ignore it. And then it becomes “the will of the Scottish people” pitted against what is legal… good job that the UK government isn’t seeking to undermine that balance of law versus claimed political mandate, isn’t it…

The scot gov won’t hold a poll that isn’t legal, do not pass go, straight to General election. Then let the fun and games commence after that.

Same scenario really… the UK government can ignore any “single issue” election in Scotland, legally. It doesn’t have to listen to “the will of the Scottish people”, no matter how it is measured or shown. And then what…? That’s where the real battle between law and Scottish democracy begins… it’s a good job that this UK government isn’t setting a political precedent by trying to get around pesky laws and courts where they claim they are a block on what they want to do based on their own (less clear) democratic mandate…

It doesn’t have to, but it’s not really a good look for a democratic country.

This is about us having our say. What will be will be afterwards.

Shaping international opinion is also important. The pro-indy movement needs to show that all constitutional measures have been taken to secure a poll.

Ha ha ha **** you Boris!

Shaping international opinion is also important. The pro-indy movement needs to show that all constitutional measures have been taken to secure a poll.

Absolutely nobody (except maybe Russia) is going to get behind Scotland on a questionable referendum. Many countries, such as Spain, for example, have their own ‘problem’ regions and they have no wish to greenlight secession. 2014 is very recent in the grand scheme of things.

2014 is before the great divide.

Politically a lifetime ago.

#BrexitBrokeBritain (arguably)

Lots of things broke Britain, and still breaking Britain (and many more nations), if Scotland get independence based on Brexit then it’ll not be a great outcome for them!

It’s also going to be nearly 18 months from now, so a lot will happen in that time, so way too early to be pinning their campaign on any one thing, or being able to understand who to aim their campaign at to get over the line.

It doesn’t have to, but it’s not really a good look for a democratic country.

Indeed. But England holding Scotland in the Union against its will is very likely. I fear the UK government will claim that is democratic, even if nearly every Scottish MP in the UK parliament is pro independence, and the Scottish government is pro independence, and a public vote in Scotland goes in favour of independence. No logic or fairness in that, but that is how it might be. It’s going to be messy.

It’s also going to be nearly 18 months from now, so a lot will happen in that time, so way too early to be pinning their campaign on any one thing, or being able to understand who to aim their campaign at to get over the line.

I for one, dread another 18 months of bickering in the lead up to another vote. I’d be happier if we just voted next week. Since nobody on this thread appears to have changed their position in the 6 years since the thread was started, we may as well get it over with.

Since nobody on this thread appears to have changed their position in the 6 years since the thread was started

There’s a few on this thread who have changed their minds.

and a public vote in Scotland goes in favour of independence.

Without Westminster approval, any referendum will be like the 2017 Catalan vote which nobody recognised as legitimate. It will just be a pro-independence government holding a dodgy and illegal plebiscite which nobody who was against independence wanted to legitimise by participating in.

Spain isn’t a union of nations.

Nor is the UK, it’s one united kingdom, clue is in the name.

Yes, the UK isn’t a federation. It’s a unitary sovereign country.

Well, if you’re taking this thread down the “Scotland is not a country” route, I’ll sit it out, ta.

Or like eritrea ?

Since nobody on this thread appears to have changed their position in the 6 years since the thread was started, we may as well get it over with.

Confirmation bias I suspect….

As I have previously posted, I have. I’m not the only one either.

Scotland is a country but the UK isn’t a collection of countries that handed power upward to a higher legislative body, e.g., the United States. Instead, the Acts of Union created the British Parliament which hands power down (partially in the case of the devolved assemblies).

We’ll find out soon enough.

kelvin
Full Member
It doesn’t have to, but it’s not really a good look for a democratic country.

Indeed. But England holding Scotland in the Union against its will is very likely.

It’s likely they’ll try, but it’s unsustainable long term.

Little matter of determining the will of the people on the matter first though.

In the meantime, I guess people can continually tell us, we can’t do it.

If you think Brexit was chaotic and caused uncertainty, Scottish independence will be that on steroids. A Scottish government may not even be able to borrow money.

Didn’t Brexit teach you anything?

You may or may not be right, but Brexit has been so bad for people who had a more outward optimistic view of the world that almost any pain to be shot of it would be ok for them.

Incidentally, my opinion hasn’t changed I still like countries from a cultural point of view, but dislike them in most other ways.
The cultural side represents part of who I am – the science and engineering of Watt, Kelvin, Dunlop, Fleming, Baird and Bell, the literature of Burns, Stevenson, Banks, Rankin and many others, the seafood, and oatmeal cookery, a drop of malt, and even our other national drink. And yes, my York born and raised son just picked up a kilt for his school prom / dance.
But the rest is about restrictions on my freedom – where I can live or work – and limits on our economy – fundamentally big economies just work better.

So do I want Scots independence? Not really, but I can easily understand those who do.
Did I want Brexit? No, I’d have been very happy with a federal Europe if we could have transformed the EU trading club into one. Wasn’t federal enough though in 2016. Needed more.

We’re off this time! Wait until you see! Good riddance!

Brexit has been bad but it’s definitely not been a disaster. How outward and optimistic I am is my own business TBH. The symbolic matter of being in a trade bloc isn’t much to me.

If given a choice I’d have us rejoin, of course.

@waderider – is ‘getting one over’ on the English a sound reason for massive political and economic upheaval?