Scotland Indyref 2

I don’t think the challenges to Scotland rejoining the EU are insurmountable. But in no particular order of importance.

1. Scotland’s Gov spend is “roughly” 61% of GDP and growing. The EU admission rules are no more then 60%. that means cuts somewhere.

2. The Euro. SNP say they’ll continue to use Sterling. I cannot, under any circumstances, see the EU agreeing to it’s use at all, especially the currency that the member state doesn’t control, and is the currency of a member state that’s recently left the union.

3. The need for a hard border across it’s biggest trading partner. We know now that the EU will not negotiate on this

None of these are insignificant.

This needs to be said again and again. An independent Scotland has lots of ways to get involved with the rest of Europe that the UK seems determined to avoid for “reasons”. It doesn’t have to join the EU, it just needs to not set itself against the rest of Europe

We’re agreed on one thing at least.

2. The Euro. SNP say they’ll continue to use Sterling. I cannot, under any circumstances, see the EU agreeing to it’s use at all, especially the currency that the member state doesn’t control, and is the currency of a member state that’s recently left the union.

This is the biggy. And one of the reasons why I think EU membership would be decades away, if at all, and shouldn’t be at the centre of the independence debate/campaigns. As it happens, I would expect an Indie Scotland to move from Sterling to the Euro while not a member of the EU. There are already a few non-EU countries and territories using the Euro as their currency… and I don’t see Scotland setting up its own currency as an interim measure.

Any bets on what Nicola Sturgeon will have to say this afternoon as regards IndyRef2? I reckon something, something, fairness, Boris, mandate, undemocratic and then a crowdfunder for more carrots and long grass.

I have to say I am intrigued as to what they will be coming up with

Edit – thought about it then decided unnecessary

Any bets on what Nicola Sturgeon will have to say this afternoon as regards IndyRef2? I reckon something, something, fairness, Boris, mandate, undemocratic and then a crowdfunder for more carrots and long grass.

is probably all she has to bother with & tbh that will rpobably be enough, Johnson not just trashing his party but also ending the UK

She has to have something concrete to follow for a referendum or she is toast politically. See scotroutes sceptism above

Set your alarm clocks

indyref 2 …………. 19 October 2023

All thats got to happen first is SNP winning a battle at the supreme court, that’ll be messy!

No crowdfunder needed. They haven’t had the election they raised the last £600k for.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/snp-donations-probe-police-branchform-26967273

£600k? That’s about enough for 5 sets with Johnson.

Independence has a mandate, nothing to stop them running one IMO, just call it an ‘advisory referendum’.

Ooooft! Well played Sturgers. Ref or single issue election.

Not fussed either way. Bring it on.

tjagain
Full Member
She has to have something concrete to follow for a referendum or she is toast politically. See scotroutes sceptism above

It’s happening, one way or the other TJ. She’s just played a blinder here.

It’s a question of democracy, and the question will be asked.

Why does she/everyone call it the 2nd independence referendum? Is it not the 3rd?

gauss1777
Free Member
Why does she/everyone call it the 2nd independence referendum? Is it not the 3rd?

Guessing you mean 4th, but no, ’79 and ’97 were devolution referendums.

Ah, ta

Debate in Scottish parliament tonight about drug deaths has been postponed . It would be nice if over the next year the SNP also remember there is a day job .

Debate in Scottish parliament tonight about drug deaths has been postponed . It would be nice if over the next year the SNP also remember there is a day job

A bit like the tories have been doing since, what, 2016 or so?

Seems like a vote on independence is happening one way or the other.

Douglas Ross says he’s not going to take part. I’m sure his loss will be deeply felt by one of the sides.

So it’s a consultative referendum. Those anti- independence won’t vote. Turnout will therefore be below 50%. UK government will say result is invalid. Sturgeon can say she tried. Win-win.

Every referendum held in the UK is consultative, including Brexit.

imnotverygood
Free Member
So it’s a consultative referendum.

Seems highly unlikely there will be a referendum tbh.

Constitutional and democratic crisis anyone…

imnotverygood
Free Member
Sturgeon can say she tried.

She’s going to do more than try.

YES.

FWIW Chris McEleny proposed this approach at the SNP conference 3 years ago and was booed for it, with various reasons given as to why it wouldn’t work.

Well that was a surprise there’s actually a good bit of substance in that, decision referred to the Supreme Court now instead of dillydallying, single issue election. I suspect the unionists will still talk about the process and not the substantive issue. Over all I feel like I was expecting to get spam but have been given a couple of slices of gammon.

I’m pretty sure I proposed the same thing on here three years ago and you all booed me and gave me various reasons why it wouldn’t work 🙂

I’ve suggested it too but neither you nor I were at the SNP conference proposing it 🙂

In Nicola says it then it becomes the truth.

The focus on personalities rather than policy has been a bad thing for the independence campaign. I was kind of nervous about all those photo ops of “Nicola” with big crowds etc and I don’t believe that “Eck” is the King in waiting either. The top down approach and a lack of internal democracy may well have considerably reduced the SNP’s greatest strength- its activists to a stump of what it was. So if they look to the wider indy movement for support in campaigning they may well find that movement split, tired and wary of being taken for a fool.

I think if it goes to a single issue election, she might have it.
The PR maths make it difficult for me to tell, but if all the other major parties split the pro-union vote, she’ll clean up the individual seats and still might do ok on the lists.
And it would be single issue – the media would ensure that.
And the pro-union parties can’t not play.

Interesting.

My parents are sadly rather Tory and firm Telegraph readers. They definitely seem to use “Nicola” as a focus for all that ails Scotland and any failings (true or otherwise) of the Scottish government. So it would seem that the particular visibility of Nicola Sturgeon has become a useful tool for the SNP’s unionist opponents at least.

But, but, but, Douglas Ross said prior to the last election that a vote for the SNP was a vote for independence anyway!

igm
Full Member
I think if it goes to a single issue election, she might have it.
The PR maths make it difficult for me to tell, but if all the other major parties split the pro-union vote, she’ll clean up the individual seats and still might do ok on the lists.
And it would be single issue – the media would ensure that.
And the pro-union parties can’t not play.

Interesting.

Think she’s talking fighting the westminster election on the single issue basis.

Which if she wins, will potentially lead to things like abstentionism, or just straight up causing havoc in the halls of westminster. Not sure how that gets played.

Talking straight up fight with the UK gov anyway, which makes sense, as if the UK gov denys the bill the scottish parliament puts forward, then that parliament is no longer legitimate. The democratic options begin to narrow quite quickly and we’re heading straight heading towards a real democratic and constitutional crisis.

Debate in Scottish parliament tonight about drug deaths has been postponed . It would be nice if over the next year the SNP also remember there is a day job .

A debate that would result in no action either way because drug policy is under the control of Westminster

The democratic options begin to narrow quite quickly and we’re heading straight heading towards a real democratic and constitutional crisis.

Im pretty sure that the SNP would rather have it that way

Westminster chucking its weight around is an indy vote winner, especially with Johnson in charge(interesting to see what happens when/if Johnson goes though)

when/if Johnson goes

The Tories will adopt someone more Brexy and less attractive to the Scots.

Yes any new leader will have to go MAXIMUM BREXIT!! to get elected by the membership (see Truss)

Every referendum held in the UK is consultative, including Brexit.

Proper referenda are overseen by the electoral commission and need an act of Parliament. They are only ‘advisory’ in the sense that Parliament cannot bind itself.

A wildcat ‘referendum’ in Scotland would have the legal status of a Gallup opinion poll.

Personally, I believe that indyrefs should be a once-in-a-generation matter only. Westminster can just shut down Hollrood if they start to behave as Catalonia did in 2017.

Turning the indyref into a de facto referendum on Boris and Brexit is a cynical tactic.

I think if it goes to a single issue election, she might have it.

There is no such thing as a single-issue election.

Turning the indyref into a de facto referendum on Boris and Brexit is a cynical tactic.

cynical tactic you say?

Using EU membership in the No campaign is why the SNP are getting a second bite at the cherry

And even if they hadnt youre very naive if you think it wont be a factor for years to come in all kinds of debates & elections

Britons continue to think that Brexit is going badly

Going well: 16%
Going badly: 54%
Neither: 20%https://t.co/MBLoNAfsyX pic.twitter.com/csmH34vVEK

— YouGov (@YouGov) June 28, 2022

And if you think that having serial liar, law breaker, corrupt egomaniac Johnson squatting in No 10 isnt going to be an indyref asset…. then I have (garden) bridge to sell you

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating?crossBreak=scotland