Osbourne says no to currency union.

I rest my case

You don’t have a case.
You’ve admitted you don’t know what you’re heading for and you don’t care because you have faith in an independent Scotland.

You are not exactly coming across as especially balanced and open minded to both sides,are you?

I’m open to any reasoned argument, I just haven’t come across any.

I have been pretty clear what I want to know. The UK government tell us that all the experts endorse their view on indepent Scotland joining the EU. The EU commission is the deciding body ,it’s advice is available to the UK government if the UK govt makes a formal request. The UK govt has refused to do so . Why? All the information is not out there because the UK govt has chosen not to make it available.

Hang on, what do we have so far?

The President of the European Commission has stated that:

“In case there is a new country, a new state, coming out of a current member state it will have to apply.”

and that:

“accession to the European Union will have to be approved by all other member states of the European Union.”

and that:

“Of course it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all the other member states to have a new member coming from one member state.”

This is further backed up by the letter mentioned above from Viviane
Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission Justice, Fundamental
Rights and Citizenship.

Which is no wonder as it completely tallies with the conditions of membership enshrined in European Law, which is all accessible on-line.

What other advice do you need?
Leaving the UK is leaving the EU, with no guarantee of re-entry.

The EU commission is the deciding body

Not quite.
The EU commission and every one of its member states.

it’s advice is available to the UK government if the UK govt makes a formal request

But it cannot advise on how its member states will act, and that is what you really need to know.

It is also plainly ridiculous that the White Paper promises to gain entry to the EU using an article of the treaty of the European Union that simply does not apply to an Independent Scotland.

You are being mugged off.
Big style.

Of course, this is only of consequence if you are bothered about being a part of the EU, and I’m sure there are Scots out there that really aren’t fussed.
You obviously are though gordimhor, aren’t you?

@gordimohr – why would the UK government waste much time asking the EU about an independent Scotland, I think there is a very good chance they have sent very little time and effort on it ? I mean it’s not the UK’s problem is it ?

Yeah, it’s not like the UK government should give any consideration to Scottish people.

My simple mind is confused.

The No political parties tell us:

No EU membership for Scotland is a terribly BAD thing.
Independence an awful thing, better to be governed by a major power, that’s a GOOD thing.

Meanwhile same group tell the rest of the world:

We’re thinking of taking the UK out of the EU, that will be a GOOD thing.
Crimea has returned to the bosom of a major power, and that’s a BAD thing.

Like many Scots, I’d happily give up EU and NATO membership if that is the price for Independence. After all it need not be a permanent state of affairs, and in the meantime we could rebuild our fishing fleet.

There’s other organisations we could join – maybe OPEC will have us. 🙂

On the grounds that you’ve uncharacteristically made a post that at first glance appears to be free of spelling and grammatical errors,

It was, like you, special.

I’ll do you the honour of a reply.

tbh its more of a chore having to reply, feel free to resist this time.

Care to explain, or is your post simply what the STW random post generator threw up for you?

That’s you that is – simple enough? A zealot who wont listen [ as others have noted] but with arrogant certainty in their own righteousness.
Hence why it was ironic.

You are not exactly coming across as especially balanced and open minded to both sides,are you?
I’m open to any reasoned argument, I just haven’t come across any.

I await your hilariously worded denial

You don’t have a case.
You’ve admitted you don’t know what you’re heading for and you don’t care because you have faith in an independent Scotland.

The difference between you and me is that I’m willing to admit I don’t know what the future holds. Can you tell me what Scotland will be like 5, 25, 100 years after a No vote?

We are still talking about the currency here? So not only is it something not to be decided until after everybody has voted on they know not what, it’s not even to be decided until after the first independent Scottish parliament is formed some time a year or two after the vote?

I’m sure all the financial institutions will find that remarkably reassuring in the event of a yes vote, and not a single one of them will be jumping ship due to the uncertainty.

Seriously?

Ah, the old “uncertainty” thing – Standard Life had 12% wiped off it’s share value when Osborne announced the pension changes in last week’s budget.

Do you think that completely unexpected event was more or less risky than independence, which they can plan for?

Meanwhile

Its amusing how one sided we become as this “debate” rumbles on

Aracer makes a fair point the uncertainty is not helpful if you are a business.
However it is also largely unavoidable as the rules say no pre negotiation and, given the wildly differing views on what will happen afterwards, it seems safe to assume negotiations will be tough. Imagine getting the polarised folk on here to agree on what happens afterwards never mind the politicians who.

You could equally argue the whole vote leads to uncertainty with some merit but I think democracy trumps business need personally and i see no way of avoiding the uncertainty.

epicyclo – Member

My simple mind is confused.

The No political parties tell us:

No EU membership for Scotland is a terribly BAD thing.
Independence an awful thing, better to be governed by a major power, that’s a GOOD thing.

Meanwhile same group tell the rest of the world:

We’re thinking of taking the UK out of the EU, that will be a GOOD thing.

Are you trying to say that the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats are all for leaving the EU?
If that’s the case why does the tiny minority party UKIP exist?

What you have written is demonstrably and undeniably untrue.

Junkyard – lazarus
…You could equally argue the whole vote leads to uncertainty with some merit but I think democracy trumps business need personally and i see no way of avoiding the uncertainty.

Speaking as a retired business person, I’d say I could see much more uncertainty in a general election when the choice is between a rightwing govt and a leftwing one.

And that is probably the next UK election, because if Labour doesn’t return to their red roots and clear out all their pink Tories, they may as well join the LibDems in the political obscurity corner.

If some businesses do go south, their gap is going to leave some great opportunities for others to come and and take their business.

You are asking Salmond to campaign for the 2015/6 election there. Why should salmond tbh the currency question isn’t for him to tell us its for us to tell which ever government forms the first Parliament.

Next Scottish Parliament election is due 5 May 2016. Proposed Independence Day in event of a Yes vote is 24 March 2016. Currency will have to be resolved before the next election as it will have to be resolved before Independence goes “live”.

sbob – Member
Are you trying to say that the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats are all for leaving the EU?
If that’s the case why does the tiny minority party UKIP exist?…

From where I’m sitting it is looking very much like that tiny minority party is the tail that is wagging the dog.

History shows that when small radical parties start hoovering up the votes of the floating voters, the big parties respond by adopting the radical party’s policies.

Time will tell.

Junkyard – lazarus

It was, like you, special.

Ah, gee thanks. 🙂

tbh its more of a chore having to reply

You don’t have to, you choose to.

That’s you that is – simple enough? A zealot who wont listen [ as others have noted] but with arrogant certainty in their own righteousness.
Hence why it was ironic.

What haven’t I listened to?
The reasoned arguments why Scotland will get a shared currency despite all three major UK political parties stating it will not happen?
The reasoned arguments why Scotland won’t have to leave the EU, despite being told so by the President of the European Commission, and despite this being clearly covered by European Law?
The reasoned arguments why Scotland will be able to change EU law to allow themselves membership despite not actually being a part of the EU?

I await your hilariously worded denial

I await you giving an example of any of the above, which you failed to do in your post.
As it is, all your post boils down to is your usual stance of “you don’t agree with me so you’re an idiot”, which correct me if I’m wrong, is what you got banned for?

There you go, no humour.
Now are you going to substantiate your post with any of the examples I’ve mentioned above?
Can you?

epicyclo – Member

From where I’m sitting it is looking very much like that tiny minority party is the tail that is wagging the dog.

History shows that when small radical parties start hoovering up the votes of the floating voters, the big parties respond by adopting the radical party’s policies.

Time will tell.

You missed this part of my post out of your quote:

What you have written is demonstrably and undeniably untrue.

It still stands, doesn’t it?

The uncertainty argument is just a way of saying “never change anything ever”. We can’t set the world in amber because someone might fear uncertainty. Every business opportunity in the world came about as a result of change.

And of course, it’s only scottish independence uncertainty that’s bad- UK government uncertainty is fine, UK EU referendum uncertainty in particular is definitely fine.

bencooper – Member

The difference between you and me is that I’m willing to admit I don’t know what the future holds. Can you tell me what Scotland will be like 5, 25, 100 years after a No vote?

That’s not the difference between you and me, I’ve never claimed to be able to tell the future either.
The difference between you and me is that I accept that it would be a lot harder to predict the future of an independent Scotland than if you remained in the UK.
You seem to be using the logic that any probability <1 is equal.
It isn’t.

(Don’t know what it means if anything, but I just read through this post and realised I was doing it in a Scottish accent. 😆
I do have some heritage from north of the border. 🙂 )

Well one of them is an unavoidable event for a financial business trading in pensions in the UK, clearly there are ways of avoiding the risks of the other. Anyway, how are they supposed to plan for independence when Sir BS of Eck won’t tell them what currency Scotland will be using (actually to be fair, they can, and it seems they have planned for independence so that the currency doesn’t affect them)?

I’m not sure that rUK has any say in what currency iS chooses to use, so no need for negotiation – nothing to do with rUK whether Scotland unilaterally adopts the pound, has a currency tied to the pound or a totally independent currency. We could be told now what the choice will be.

Let’s be clear here. I presume everybody is referring to my mention of “uncertainty” at the top of this page. I’m not referring to the uncertainty of independence in general – that’s a totally unreasonable uncertainty, and as you point out possibly no less uncertain than what will happen in the event of a No vote. I’m referring to the totally unnecessary uncertainty over what currency iS will adopt.

I’m referring to the totally unnecessary uncertainty over what currency iS will adopt.

Which is a matter for negotiation between the two governments after the referendum. No prenegotiation, remember?

Like Mr Cooper, I also hope that if Scotland becomes independent that the country and its people prosper, please don’t think otherwise.

Scotland is probably my favourite holiday destination, it’s a beautiful country and I’ve always found its people hospitable, which is why I like it being a part of this great nation.

It’s not necessarily independence itself that I am against so much as the way the Yes campaign is bullshitting to its populace.
Hence why I have been specific in previous posts attacking that campaign.
To people like Mr Cooper who value indepence above all else it isn’t really an issue, but there are a lot of people out there that could be about *to make a very big decision based on lies, and I don’t like that.

xxx
sbob.

*No different to any election, I suppose. 😆

bencooper – Member

Which is a matter for negotiation between the two governments after the referendum. No prenegotiation, remember?

Not really, as aracer has already pointed out.
Look at the thread title.
No other option really needs the input of the UK.

Scotland is probably my favourite holiday destination, it’s a beautiful country and I’ve always found its people hospitable, which is why I like it being a part of this great nation.

I go to Wales on holiday every year – I don’t think Wales has to be in the same nation as Scotland. You’ll still be very welcome to come visit – or even come live here.

Look at the thread title.

Osborne is posturing – it’s a pre-referendum negotiating position, not a statement of fact.

Osborne is posturing – it’s a pre-referendum negotiating position, not a statement of fact.

And you’re sure of this how, exactly?

Osborne is posturing – it’s a pre-referendum negotiating position, not a statement of fact.

It’s a very clear statement, that in your opinion is only a negotiating position.

And you’re sure of this how, exactly?

Because Osborne isn’t really daft enough to cause big problems to rUK businesses to make a point. It’s like when Theresa May said she’d want passport checks at the border – it’s something they say now to avert a Yes vote, but after a Yes vote they don’t need to posture any more, they need to get a good deal for the rUK.

It’s a very clear statement, that in your opinion is only a negotiating position.

I’m impressed that you trust a politician to say something and stick to it 😀

Remember that Westminster have to answer to their voters. I think they’ll be a lot of folk in England & Wales who would expect the main parties to stick to what they said about a currency union or else, so really there isn’t a negotiation.

Because Osborne isn’t really daft enough to cause big problems to rUK businesses to make a point.

As has been covered many times, his point is that the downside risk is worse than any business inconvenience.

but after a Yes vote they don’t need to posture any more, they need to get a good deal for the rUK.

Not really. As I’ve said before, whilst AS might turn up saying he’s got a mandate from 5M people to get x,y,z, rUK turn up saying they don’t have a mandate from the other 55M to deliver x,y,z.

If AS doesn’t get the deal he wants, do you think he’ll sign it in order to get independence or do you think he’ll back off saying the deal isn’t good enough? That’s entirely possible and what happens then?

A point the business leaders themselves have made.

Which is a matter for negotiation between the two governments after the referendum

What would Scotlands bargaining chip be? It seems to me that Scotland want to negotiate with the UK over lots of things but except for a deal over the continued use of Faslane what have they got in their pocket?

A point the business leaders themselves have made.

Indeed. I’m CFO in a Scottish business with a strong export trade. I deal in enough currencies that another one isn’t a big deal. Were I sitting in England, I’d probably take the same view.

Please stop the no pre-negotiation BS re the currency. After wee eck’s ill thought out threats reached a certain level earlier this year, HM Treasury had to step in to make it very clear that all outstanding debt of the UK would be honored come what may. This was a watershed moment, when wee eck’s irresponsibility went too far. From that point,certain things were made categorical including the rUK’s position on debt and the currency. While the amount of the transfer from an iS to rUK is still open to negotiation, the structure of the debt (no change) and the currency (no union) are now set in stone. If there is one certainty, this is it (or as close as it is ever possible to truly get).

Can’t see falsane as much of a bargaining chip when membership of NATO is up for grabs. More another area of deceit with nukes there in a don’t ask don’t tell basis and Scots being made to swallow that.

I think the world is such that larger countries have a material advantage (why has India grown it’s population from 300m to 1bn, it’s an economic strategy). Anyway, the UK needs the EU as it’s tough for a country of 55m to stand alone, for Scotland the EU is essential as IMO it’s basically impossible for a country of 5m to try and go it alone.

Have we done this yet? Orkney, Shetland and presumably the North Sea with them would become part of Norway and Denmark.

Independent Scotland will lose Orkney and Shetland

They wouldn’t.
Not unless they wanted to…