EU Referendum – are you in or out?

The stakes are so high that they’ll agree some sort of deal or extension rather than go over the cliff.

Steven Baker (arch no-deal leaver and ERG member) was telling the world on the Today programme this morning that his position (and presumably the rest of the ERG’s) “…was the only sensible one” Without any hint (that I could discern) of irony. The stakes may be high, but don’t underestimate the turbo-nutters obsession with nothing short of a no-deal leave, and remember that May has bowed to their wishes at every turn in order to keep the Tories intact.

I’m less relaxed than you.

So even if you were to take out all the US estimate

No – taking out the US reduces the growth rate to much the same as that experienced in the UK in 2018.

Cant find the figures for Vlieghes method

But this one here using weighting USA as 25% also coems out at 2% of GDP
for 2017 but pre-USA tax cut

https://www.cer.eu/insights/whats-cost-brexit-so-far

Comparing the UK economy to the other economy most damaged by brexit instability (the EU) is rather deceitful as well mefty. And while the US economy has been given an artificial boost by tax breaks and environmental vandalism, it has been equally damaged by trump instigated “trade wars”. The 80bn figure is far more accurate than anything the defenders of brexit have come up with.

Do you agree though that if it does come to another General Election that Labour may well have shot themselves in the foot?

At the last GE where the Tories had to get into bed with the DUP, it was a close run thing, but Labour had the support not only of the older red die-hards in the usual Labour hotspots, but there was a huge up-swell in the younger generations turning up to vote and voting Labour because they wanted to see an opposition to the Tories, Corbyn even popped up at Glastonbury! I didn’t see a single Labour MP on my doorstep for this or a single pamphlet, what i saw was an outpouring of anti-Tory sentiment on Social media, fueling the younger generations support.

But after time has passed and in many (especially the younger generations) eyes, Corbyn has not got a magic duffelcoat and he seemingly has provided little opposition to the Tories, he is losing their trust (along with mine)..

I personally think he will see the young leave him in droves..

Until you actually come up with what you want and discuss with EU you don’t know that. They may say they are as a statement to steer what people think they can have (and it has clearly worked) but with the right compromises you will never know what could be done.

That’s delusional, I’m afraid. It would be harmless too, two years ago when we could have been exploring what the ground rules actually are. But it is dangerous now – because the clock has been run down and notions like this embolden people to keep backing the loonies. The loonies love it, because it does their work for them – I’ve heard very little of any substance from the ERG about why they want the disruption and in what image they are going to rebuild. This is because they are a disaster capitalist Trojan Horse and are going to reject any deal that is less damaging than No Deal. But the ‘easily led’ are persuaded to support them time and time again under the delusion that they are the only ones tough enough to negotiate a ‘good deal’ against the ‘bullies’. The tragedy is that they are actually determined to burn this country to achieve their aims and the people who will be worst hit are the ones who support them (in the most part).

Comparing the UK economy to the other economy most damaged by brexit instability (the EU) is rather deceitful as well mefty.

I am not convinced that their numbers are massively impacted, afterall many have said the EU would benefit significantly from Brexit instability as investment was diverted to the continent.

The fundamental point is that there is alot going on in the world economy and there are many reasons why UK growth might be disappointing other than Brexit. The chances of anyone taking that on board on this thread are exceedingly remote however.

I don’t think we should be blaming captialists. Business leaders in favour of leave are so few on the ground you can name them, Dyson and Weatherspoon. The people who stand to gain and are the main culprits are tax avoiders and financial speculators in the JRM mould.

The fundamental point is that there is alot going on in the world economy and there are many reasons why UK growth might be disappointing other than Brexit. The chances of anyone taking that on board on this thread are exceedingly remote however.

I don’t think anyone’s disagreeing there, but the question is whether Brexit has had a positive or negative impact on those growth figures and then quantifying that effect.  Unless you’re arguing that Brexit has been a boost for the economy (with facts to back that up)  we’re just disagreeing over how much it’s already “cost” the UK.

The chances of anyone taking that on board on this thread are exceedingly remote however.

Well no one is going to take your points seriously if your continue to be so smug, maybe you could demonstrate an ability to stray from your own distorted dogma as an example to us all, we then might take you “facts” more seriously.

I am not convinced that their numbers are massively impacted, afterall many have said the EU would benefit significantly from Brexit instability as investment was diverted to the continent.

Long term vs short term. In the short term no-one knows what’s going to happen so investment is withheld.

Direct effect of Brexit on my business.
Many of our banker customers are being moved overseas. That knocks on to the builders and everyone else.
30% tariff on chocolate which is a maybe but the falling pound a definite.
I am better off under Brexit?
No **** way.

Yaaaaaay.

Us – Uk trade deal…..

I don’t think anyone’s disagreeing there, but the question is whether Brexit has had a positive or negative impact on those growth figures and then quantifying that effect.

I don’t think anyone thinks that this period of uncertainty has been beneficial for the economy, but we do know the economy has proved to be far more resilient than forecast by many before the referendum. I am just wary of the wide spread tendency to blame every bit of underperformance on Brexit and the bandying about of huge numbers when tiny swings cause big changes. In ten years time we may start to have a reasonable idea on the economic impact of the vote, but even then that alone will not determine whether it was a good thing, you will also need to look at the other factors which were at least as responsible for Leave winning.

Yaaaaaay.

Us – Uk trade deal…..

So shredded wheat wont go up then 🙁

Its a suc and fu… deal..
(sucker you in and then …)

Wait and see what they want for a FTA and see how long this lasts for.

Direct effect of Brexit on my business.
Many of our banker customers are being moved overseas. That knocks on to the builders and everyone else.
30% tariff on chocolate which is a maybe but the falling pound a definite.
I am better off under Brexit?
No **** way.

I’ve been wondering how its being felt so far elsewhere.

For us Q4 18 and Q1 19 so far have been quiet, the only clients taking on new projects or expanding (typically when we find work) are only doing us because they have to, everyone seems to to be in a wait and see pattern, that’s remainers, leavers and ‘it’s all nonsense’ types alike.

‘Interestingly’ perhaps (because terrifying sounds too much like Hyperbole) we’ve been warned unofficially that in the event of a no-deal, Microsoft services will likely cease, at least for a time the moment we no longer have a trade deal with the EU because UK services are based there, they may be back quicker if we have a deal with the US, but in the event of us having no deal with either, everything goes off. By services they mean anything that’s not a one-off payment purchase, so windows will still work, 365 and Azure services – gone. Again this is unofficial, but MS may allow services to continue for a time unpaid, but they’re not even sure if they’re allowed to do this legally or whether they simply cannot deal with the UK until we have a trade deal in place.

The maybot will use it has her primary ammo when saying we can still get this deal through ….you can see it now

Wtf is she going back to Europe for now? Best thing they could do is tell her where to go and not to bother till she comes to her senses

Have you got Brexit Derangement Syndrome?

Everyone is talking about it. BDS is London’s most fashionable new affliction.

My colleague Matthew Parris, writing in this week’s Spectator, says in a brilliant piece that Brexit is driving him mad, but he is determined to press on arguing against the project. Yasmin Alibhai-Brown told the BBC’s Daily Politics programme that she has been fighting with people on buses.

But BDS is not restricted to the ultra-Remain side of the argument. Some Leavers have contracted bad cases of BDS.

How can you know if you have BDS? What are the vital warning signs to look out for?

1) Are you a member of the House of Lords?

2) Are you AC Grayling? If you are the tormented philosopher and wild-haired anti-Brexit campaigner, there is a strong possibility that you have contracted BDS.

3) Are you in the furious pro-Brexit Tory MP pressure group the ERG? If you are, leave the ERG before it is too late or lie and say you are busy on the night of their next meeting, then go out to the cinema or to the pub instead where no-one – literally not a soul – is talking about the customs union.

4) How many Brexit bulletin daily emails from newspapers and pressure groups are you signed up to? If the answer is more than three, seek help.

5) Have you ever put an EU flag in your garden or hung it out of your window?

6) Do you know the difference between Max Fac and a Customs Partnership? Are you a hardline Brexiteer who thinks that Max Fac is a real thing, like Father Christmas?

7) Have you somehow convinced yourself that the population at large cares about customs arrangements?

8) Do you find yourself in social situations – at family celebrations, with friends in a restaurant, or in bed with your partner – tweeting about either Jean Claude Juncker or Jacob Rees Mogg? Put… the.. phone… down.

9) Do you find yourself taking the side of Michel Barnier and Jean Claude Juncker, secretly wanting them to punish Britain, and finding this arousing? Does this spill into a vengeful desire for people who voted to leave to lose their job or be burned to a crisp in a house fire caused by a dangerously deregulated post-Brexit washing machine manufactured by leave voters in Doncaster?

10) In everyday conversation are you using any of the following terms – Brexshit, Brexidiots, will of the people, traitors, saboteurs, where’s the £350m?, Remainiac, lying liberal metropolitan elite, Project Smear, join the global race, let the lion roar?

As yet, there is no known cure for BDS, other than leaving the European Union or changing the subject. So, be careful out there. It’s infectious

but there was a huge up-swell in the younger generations turning up to vote and voting Labour

Was there?

Well no one is going to take your points seriously if your continue to be so smug,

Actually I think it’s the other way around. There is a definite feeling on this thread of ‘we told you so – James O’Brien smugness. This is not yet justified. When someone suggests that things are too complex to extrapolate the consequences of Brexit before we have left seems a reasonable position to me.

Uncertainty is clearly not beneficial though.

Let’s assume that whilst the figure isn’t £800M a week, that it is certainly a decent percentage of that… so even looking conservatively we could say lets take a round 43.75% of that figure to be the true amount. In other words about £350M per week…. Oh

Actually I think it’s the other way around. There is a definite feeling on this thread of ‘we told you so – James O’Brien smugness. This is not yet justified. When someone suggests that things are too complex to extrapolate the consequences of Brexit before we have left seems a reasonable position to me.

I’ll post this again then – https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/brexit-impact-tracker/ actual impact on the country with jobs going. There’s also a thread on twitter about this… here…

Debunking WTO, and what "trading on WTO terms" really means…

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA, and 40+ other countries. 1/26

— Edwin Hayward (Author: 'Slaying Brexit Unicorns') (@uk_domain_names) December 13, 2018

I’m confused… why did Abbott just share this… considering her current position… on Brexit…?

“I swallowed the Brexit lies. Now I regret telling curry house workers to vote leave” Gradually, people that voted leave are realising that they were lied to.https://t.co/l1L6WgdC3w

— Diane Abbott MP (@HackneyAbbott) February 15, 2019

Preparing for a switcheroo?!?

As I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a new pro Europe party might be emerging, from both sides of the house.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/15/uk-mps-intense-talks-setting-up-new-centrist-party-labour

It is a shame really, I would rather have a proper left wing government with the UK in Europe, rather than tory lite. But as brexit is the only game in twon currently, they will get my support.

And I bet they would smash the **** out of ukip in an election.

Actually I think it’s the other way around. There is a definite feeling on this thread of ‘we told you so – James O’Brien smugness. This is not yet justified. When someone suggests that things are too complex to extrapolate the consequences of Brexit before we have left seems a reasonable position to me.

Uncertainty is clearly not beneficial though.

We can just stick to the impact of what has gone on so far.
Research Cuts
Nursing Shortages
EMA Leaves UK
Banks Move Jobs
Auto Industry Cuts and moving of production
Hundreds of millions spent
Delays in actual government

There is a very high risk that we will not have enough staff for key posts in the event of no deal.

Plenty more to go on with there but it’s just the tip of the iceberg.

The can’t forecast the future line starts to sound like the climate change denial or fake moon landing stuff after a while, just desperate pleas to ignore the bad news.

And I bet they would smash the **** out of ukip in an election.

They would win some seats so yes would smash ukip but likely to be less than their old MPs held.
I think they will find the tribal loyalties is the main reason they got elected.
Although its good to see that they have been busy polling potential constituencies.
I doubt they would have the balls to take on one of those constituencies which voted leave.
One of the facts some of the moderate extremists seem determined to miss, in Labours case, that they represent (in England) most of the most pro remain areas (eg urban middle class and millenials) areas and the most pro-brexit. I am assuming when looking for people to represent they will be looking at Hackney and Stoke Newington constituency rather than Doncaster.
We kept being told that the Labour members were an irrelevance and its the voters who count which is a bit of a problem when two thirds of the Labour seats are pro-Brexit.
I would like Labour to be actively pro second referendum but you have to be a bit dim to realise it really isnt a simple issue and frankly the pros and cons are impossible to figure out without access to a time machine.
Its a shame the “moderates” hadnt spent so much effort attacking Corbyn rather than trying to work with him. As it stands he would be an absolute moron to trust them one inch.

I think they will find the tribal loyalties is the main reason they got elected.

But a huge number of people, including most of the posters on this thread, are sick to death with both sides. So I think they would draw a lot of votes. It’d be interesting.

But a huge number of people, including most of the posters on this thread, are sick to death with both sides. So I think they would draw a lot of votes. It’d be interesting.

Shouting vs Conviction?

are sick to death with both sides

Some shouty people are yes. Although most seem to be moderates/centrists who are a bit bitter they dont have a party which traditionally represents the left or right jumping to their whim whilst ignoring the core voters. That abandoning the core helps the nationalist populists doesnt seem to have occurred to them.
I will be impressed if this new party goes for and carries Doncaster and other leave areas. I strongly suspect though they will carefully chose their seats and win a couple whilst losing most.
Personally I think the two party system is shite but, and its a massive but, we need electoral reform to solve the problem. Unfortunately Clegg the idiot got played by Cameron in terms of choice of alternatives. Its a real shame Cameron didnt show the same skill in the Brexit choices.
That they seem to be wanting to use Lib Dem support whilst not actually joining them I think says quite a lot about their principles.
If you want a centrist remain party you have one.

It is a shame really, I would rather have a proper left wing government with the UK in Europe, rather than tory lite.

I would rather see coalition politics with a healthy centre party.

MSP

Subscriber

And I bet they would smash the **** out of ukip in an election.

The UKIP with no seats?

Looking at the present bunch of incompetent, self-absorbed, Brexiteer buffoons presently occupying both front benches, a new party can’t come soon enough

Right now the choice is would you like your huge shit sandwich on brown or white bread?

Indeed I find myself agreeing with binners again. I imagine we are a pair of grumpy, cynical old buggers. The current shower in Westminster make being grumpy and cynical very easy.

I’m happy to confirm that I’m indeed a grumpy cynical old bugger.

Can I add jaded and despairing to that list?

the guardian graphic is quite fun

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/feb/15/how-brexit-revealed-four-new-political-factions

Its shows labour have far more rebels over Brexit, while the Tories have fewer but they themselves are divided by degrees of extremity & obviously while labour risk splitting their party the tory rebels risk bringing down their own government

Corbyn famously has many doubters in his own party, but brexit is such a big issue that its blowing up everything.

The irony is that if Corbyn had done what he made such a show of doing & listened to the members, he’d be earnestly pushing for a Peoples Vote & wouldnt be driving away voters, members & now his own MPs

Brexit has been mishandled by the party leaders & its damaging both their parties

We really don’t have a two party system.

Indeed I find myself agreeing with binners again.

I would say there anyone who looks at that list of MPs (with a couple of honourable exceptions) and doesnt get rather dubious about their motives really isnt cynical and grumpy enough.
That they dont seem to have the guts to align themselves properly with the Libdems should make any properly cynical person very dubious.
If you want better politics then you need to start with the electoral system.
Ideally you would then also select a party and work within that and by “select” I dont mean chose a party which is only a partial match for your beliefs but has a bigger core vote and try to take it over. Whilst I am not a fan of Macron and do think he did hide many of his true positions at least he actually went for setting up his own party rather than co-opting one.
Looking at it from the Labour perspective.
2/3 of their constituencies voted out.
If they go all out for a second referendum/just revoking it what do you think will happen to their proportion of their vote?
Now you could say they should sacrifice all in order to save the country but if they go into electoral oblivion do you really think the tories will say thanks and rein back their hard right policies or, without opposition, double down on it?
Sure the EU would give some protection but remember, despite claims to the opposite, the UK has been influential on the policies made in the EU.
How long do you think it would take for another push for a referendum bearing in mind how successful the hard right have been in blaming the EU in the past for their lunatic policies?

The irony is that if Corbyn had done what he made such a show of doing & listened to the members

Those would be the members we were being told should be ignored since they werent the actual voters?
Yes he would get some votes pushing for a peoples votes.
However the slight flaw is the gain would mostly be in those Pro remain/Labour areas. He would get hammered in those pro leave/Labour areas.
Do you honestly think the tories would be grateful for being saved from their own stupidity and so concede those areas or do you think they would lie through their teeth and use it as an opportunity to get a large majority and then do all the things Maggie and Blair thought were too nuts?

You do know that this is all academic while the Labour Party has a leader who, right now, is about as electable as Jimmy Saville, right?

Right so he should try and make himself as electable as he can, right? Like he is doing….

Did you look at a map showing Labour support and one showing leave vote? Maybe put them over each other?