Did you look at a map showing Labour support and one showing leave vote? Maybe put them over each other?

like this one?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain

Those would be the members we were being told should be ignored since they werent the actual voters?

so youre saying its fine that he lied?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/27/jeremy-corbyn-labour-membership-policy-leadership

Fake news Kimbers. It was in the Guardian and everyone knows they hate Corbyn.
Edit – you all type too fast 🙂 I was responding to the constituency map link!

Yeah… the Guardian are part of the right wing conspiracy. Everyone knows that

Close the bunker door comrade. We’re preparing for the post-Brexit socialist revolution and the glorious leader is feeling a bit chilly. It’s cold on that allotment

🙂

its OK I assumed that was sarcasm

When foodbanks are warning that brexit will hit the poorest hardest, youd think that labour would be all about making sure it doesnt happen

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/101855/ministers-must-boost-spending-%E2%80%98cushion-blow-brexit

Er yes but as Binners points out they can’t do anything if they aren’t elected, and they still think that switching to remain would cost them too much support. Not without reason.

Looks like the lucky Irish are getting an option out from the EU….

Yeah I know that theres no consensus on what pushing for remain would do

But considering how useless May has been Corbyn has a legit shout at staving of brexshit if he wanted to

country b4 party & all that

Looks like the lucky Irish are getting an option out from the EU….

Well the reunification movement is back on track, probably could carry a vote mostly at the ineptitude of the UK government.
but mickmcd from the other thread what was your other login?

Maybe there just needs to be a free commons vote, as in no whips, vote how you feel is the best for the country.

Corbyn is a complete arse doing all this whipping to abstain on multiple occasions, and a complete hypocrite considering his history of defying the party whip.

Maybe there just needs to be a free commons vote, as in no whips, vote how you feel is the best for the country.

Well it’s how I see it going as May looses it completely, my bet would be on the 27th or 28th

like this one?

Yeah cos polls are so reliable. Hilary has won and we aint exiting. Oh wait a minute.
Dont get me wrong I dont like the stance but I also dont agree with the primary school level of debate that Labour should go for remain. Really what we need is for the MPs at an individual level to do their job and push for a second referendum/revocation rather than leave it to their leadership. This is especially true for the tories who are letting the ERG lead them by the nose.
However then you would need to address the reasons for the original vote and it will need the labour “moderates” to face up to some ugly truths.Namely they shouldnt be trying to appeal to the likes of me but instead their own constituents. A rather good book on the subject is national populism which really tries and looks at the issues. Its made me think about some of my harsh judgements about brexiteers (plus trump fans) and I think I need to leave it a bit and then reread it to see how it has sunk it.

so youre saying its fine that he lied?

Personally I would love some mechanism that if a politician goes back on a promise then they are forced to recanvas. Defining the sensible limits for that though would be rather tricky. Maybe the recall option on steroids?
However it is insanely hypocritical of the likes of Binners to try this line. Look through the Corbyn thread he is are going on and on about how we should be ignoring the membership since they arent the wider electorate and now suddenly he should switch?
Quick glance through and here is one of his rants

So spare me the crap about ‘biggest membership of any party in Europe’! By the only measure that counts in a democracy – getting elected – Corbyn has been, and will be an absolute unmitigated disaster

Its a completely incoherent and hypocritical position worthy of the ERG.
How comfortable would you be with the gamble that killing Brexit will help Labour and not destroy it? Bearing in mind the hard right are in ascendance in the tories and if Labour are wiped out will have free reign. Frankly I am not sure whether brexit with my perfect politican in charge (who doesnt exists) would be better than remain with the ERG let loose.
The correct answer, of course, is sod the gamble lets not get into the situation in the first place but sadly the tories removed that option.

It was in the Guardian and everyone knows they hate Corbyn.

Are you seriously suggesting the Guardian is pro Corbyn? Are you hard right since those are the only people who would have such a simplistic view?
The Guardian were a liberal paper. They went to Labour once Blair took over and Labour moved rightwards but after he went, to put it mildly, the relationship is complex.

There are some individual columnists who are pro-Corbyn however the only really hardcore one is no longer there (since he now works directly for Corbyn). Out of their regular journalists several are pro Corbyn although of those its entertaining watching some of them swing for and against. At least one showed Binners level of hatred after using the same line Labour would be wiped out but when they werent switched to supporting him.
There are equally some who still channel Binners.
Then there is the editorial which is mixed.

Personally I wish there was a better option for Labour than Corbyn but sadly they have been hollowed out and need time to rebuild.

Yeah cos polls are so reliable. Hilary has won and we aint exiting.

How do you understand polls and stats?

Hillary was a 3 in 4 chance of winning, Trump was 1 in 4 or a 25% chance – would you take those odds? He won just by a few hundred thousand votes as I recall, Clinton won the popular vote.
How close were the Brexit predictions? how did that account for low turnout of remain voters? In a referendum you need to pick a stay at home factor for the status quo side especially if they are forecast to win.

How do you understand polls and stats?

I am not sure what you are trying to argue here since you then go on to detail how the polls failed.
For Hilary the problem was they didnt take into account the outsize influence of the rural parts of the USA and how their votes were worth far more.
For Brexit its messier. It looks to be a mix of both the unwillingness of the remainers to turn out vs the brexiteers to do so.
In the book I mentioned there is a section comparing the turnout in certain parts of London for the actual vote vs those who went online and ticked a box for a petition. If they had bothered turning out for the real thing we might not have needed the latter.
So how confident would you be the polls saying things have changed are correct?
I would love for them to be right but as a remainer (which I aint convinced Corbyn, or May for that matter, is) and as a firm believer in Labour policies (not really. No party really suits me) I am not sure I would want to gamble on the outcome.

Again dont get me wrong I would love a more aggressive stance but if I can see why a hardcore Labour supporter wouldnt go for it. Its not so simple as party before country since by sacrificing the party for the country you may well end up losing out anyway. If Labour gambles on remain we might remain but then they might get wiped out completely and since the tories are almost certainly going to go very hard right then the damage will be insane (will it outweight brexit? if Rees-Mogg and his fellow loonies get control I reckon it might).
If I was hardcore tory supporter I would be more willing to go for the gamble on the simple grounds that it was our mistake. That said I can understand why they wouldnt agree.
The only party in a good position on this is the Lib Dems (for all UK obv SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein and other nationalist parties (for the unionist NI parties who knows?)) but given they aint in a position to really influence things should give an idea why any remainer is a tad cautious.

I am not sure what you are trying to argue here since you then go on to detail how the polls failed.

That would be the point you missed, sorry about skipping the rest of the post to do the first point – the US election was not a failure of polling more a failure of interpretation, is a 1 in 4 bet not a bet worth taking?

For Hilary the problem was they didnt take into account the outsize influence of the rural parts of the USA and how their votes were worth far more.

Well it was somewhere between Florida and the rust Belt who cost her the overall, it was down to very few votes in those areas and in those ones it was close to the independent vote. Plenty of actual stats analysis, I’d suggest 538’s one if you are interested

Really what we need is for the MPs at an individual level to do their job and push for a second referendum/revocation rather than leave it to their leadership

The whipping system is very bad if you ask me. It’s what’s crippling MPs as they are afraid to lose thier cushty jobs. So they tow the line like good little serfs.

That also goes for labour, corbyn might be left of center, but he’s just as authoritarian as the Conservatives. If not more.

That would be the point you missed, sorry about skipping the rest of the post to do the first point – the US election was not a failure of polling more a failure of interpretation

Okay so how do we know the interpretation is correct here?
I am well aware the raw data may well be correct (although for example the continued emphasis on landlines for some pollsters means the data can be suspect) however in any normal usage of polls it is what gets reported to us that counts(again once it has been through the PR department and journalists it may be corrupted but thats irrelevant here unless you can show this particular dataset is somehow safe from that its irrelevant).

is a 1 in 4 bet not a bet worth taking?

Depends on if I can afford the bet doesnt it?
100 quid maybe (actually never really a gambler but lets skip that).
Destroy Labour and give Boris **** Johnson charge of the UK?

I’d suggest 538’s one if you are interested

Yup.Seen it. Given how 538 failed I am still confused as to what you are trying to argue.
Lets jump back to what I was challenging. Which was kimbers just pointing at some article about a poll and thinking it means something useful.

@dissonance was an excellent choice of username.

Yup.Seen it. Given how 538 failed I am still confused as to what you are trying to argue.
Lets jump back to what I was challenging. Which was kimbers just pointing at some article about a poll and thinking it means something useful.

Oh FFS did you listen to or read their analysis of the election result?

The Real Story Of 2016

What is your critique to this?

The whipping system is very bad if you ask me

Yes and no. This shows how confused our political system is and I dont think there is any easy answer.
How often is an MP voted for because of who they are and not because of the party they represent?
While there are exceptions I think the majority of the time they have been elected because they represent party X not because us voters have been given the opportunity to consider each person individually and decided who is the most competent. Personally I would want to see several test results and give each a personal interview but that will never happen so instead I get to look at what the party overall promises and look at their press statements which will normally be massaged to average out anything other than abject stupidity.
So given that generally people vote due to the parties manifesto (okay thats optimistic more just the name or what interpretation they have seen on billboards or the headlines) shouldnt the MPs follow the party line?
In the early development of modern democracy there does seem to have been a hope parties wouldnt happen (George Washington for example commenting on it) but it doesnt seem to be doable.
There are occasional exceptions in constituencies mostly standing for one off causes but that doesnt really scale.
Its a fascinating subject but from what I can see far better brains than me have looked at it and havent come up with a good answer aside from just leave it to them. Which I would be cautiously in favour of aside from history showing the benevolent dictator being rather an oddity and instead we end up either with a bunch of psychopaths who ended up on top by a mix of most intelligent/paranoid/ruthless which never ends well or a benevolent dictator ending up deciding to hand it off to their idiot heir.

Oh FFS did you listen to or read their analysis of the election result?

FFS yes I did. Given that analysis explains how either the pollsters interpretation failed or, more commonly, the journalists failed to understand the caveats that we (or more importantly Labour leadership) should feel comfortable gambling on the results on the poll that Kimbers linked to (as interpreted by journalists).
Please explain how this poll has dealt with those areas where 538 say they failed? FFS they admit to their flaws although skip over them rapidly to point at others. So how certain are you this one is safe? Remember get it wrong and Labour get wiped out and the ERG will be let loose (okay so get it right and there is a risk but lets keep it simple).
I would suggest you should be taking it up with Kimbers rather than me since they are the ones simply using a single poll.

Which is why I done said…..

kimbers

Subscriber
Yeah I know that theres no consensus on what pushing for remain would do, but…..

Please explain how this poll has dealt with those areas where 538 say they failed? FFS they admit to their flaws although skip over them rapidly to point at others.

I watched and read their analysis and I have to concur that Trump was an outsider, he was the long shot and the votes prove that, they talk a lot about what probability means – which is that it’s the expectation that one event will happen but that the other could happen too. That is what occurred. My life and work is data, I go with Nate as having the right handle on things – that is a professional opinion, I also agree that the UK FPTP system makes it really hard to predict as we don’t/can’t do decent constituency modelling of polls which is what they do in the US for state stuff.

Whats your stats objection to the 2016 US verdict from 538?

Whats your stats objection to the 2016 US verdict from 538?

It was an error on my part to directly respond to your decision to decide I was talking about a specific analysis at a specific time so to take a step back.
Why arent you asking Kimbers to justify their usage of a poll as interpreted by the Guardian to claim that there has been a switch in remain vs leave?
Once you deal with that it might be worth discussing the specifics of 538s Trump predictions.
Although for starters would need to understand why you decided to fixate on 538s predictions as opposed to the broader poll community bearing in mind Kimbers wasnt using 538 as a source and I just referenced trump being predicted to lose?
Then it might be worth discussing the link to 538 mea culpa which briefly covers their failings before looking more at others even greater failings and consider the relevance of that to this specific poll.

Had a item on the Opera home page from the express. It was all about stockpiling food for a no deal. They said there’s no need to worry. Then spoke about fears of food rotting in lorries at ports.
They describe a no deal as DISASTROUS and said that if you did stockpile you could donate your food once the THREAT had passed.
If the express don’t like no deal where on earth do you manage to find any **** wits that do?

@dissonance, you seem quite happy to ignore the fact that a large majority of Labour voters voted to remain. Why is that?

But as brexit is the only game in twon currently

It’s really not

Err don’t willy wave with your Aircraft carrier kids 🙂

It’s really not

It really is, the EU has been at the forefront of pushing environmental legislation, I doubt many (if any) national or international legislative bodies have done as much. The ERG loonies who are wagging the governments dog, will destroy the good that has been done by the EU, in the bonfire of environmental and human rights legislation that they so lust for.

Your attempted “oh look a squirrel” moment, just further reinforces why brexit is the only game that matters, because action on every other important issue will be weakened by brexits consequences.

The ERG loonies who are wagging the governments dog, will destroy the good that has been done by the EU, in the bonfire of environmental and human rights legislation that they so lust for.

Britain could slash environmental and safety standards ‘a very long way’ after Brexit, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg says

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html

Another Brexit snapshot.
Mother’s Day is the busiest single day of the year in retail.
This year it falls on March 31st.
2 days after our glorious future starts. The florist near us is in trouble. Huge orders and no way of knowing if he can fulfill them.
There’s no way he can get the flowers in now and I’m sure flowers won’t be given priority at the ports.
A single day can give you enough of a boost to carry you through the lean times.
Not much of an impact on the country but another small business in very real peril.

Britain could slash environmental and safety standards ‘a very long way’ after Brexit, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg says

And when you think of the ‘health and safety gone maaad’ stories that the papers like to push I don’t think it would be hard to sell lowering safety standards to the masses, taking control etc,etc.

Or you could just show pictures of rubbish strewn places in Indian cities and people might get on-side. After all Attenborough managed to make people upset about plastic.

There are literally people who live in makeshift slums who scour landfill sites trying to find stuff to sell or collect enough recyclable stuff to sell in India.

Mogg really is a manipulative evil POS. And the great unwashed over at the express seem to think he’s thier saviour.

They couldn’t be more wrong if they tried.
Taking back control, lol!

Mogg really is a manipulative evil POS.

Concentration camp enthusiast too. Who votes for these people?

https://twitter.com/PiersDisappears/status/1096194536831926272

covered elsewhere but worth adding to the good news.
Fly-BMI, stating that brexit hasn’t helped and that they are now in administration.

“Current trading and future prospects have also been seriously affected by the uncertainty created by the Brexit process, which has led to our inability to secure valuable flying contracts in Europe and lack of confidence around bmi’s ability to continue flying between destinations in Europe. Additionally, our situation mirrors wider difficulties in the regional airline industry which have been well documented.

Read more: https://www.thetravelmagazine.net/fly-bmi-in-administration.html#ixzz5fjI0V3Pk
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