EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Looks like T-Maybot is set to step down in the summer.

I will be really sad to see her go….

I will be really sad to see her go….

The detail to keep in mind, who follows? remember the electoral system of the Tory party. The more insane the candidate, if it goes to the membership, the more likely they are to win. So Williamson declaring war of the world is a good thing for his electoral chances.

So it looks like, according to yougov, Corbyn has simultaneously lost support to the lib Dems, the greens and to a lesser extent ukip.

The magic grandad is getting punished for his dithering on Brexit, like I said he would. The young and remain voters are leaving him.

Apparently the word from the bunker in Westminster is that May has made her mind up that, once again, keeping the Tory party together at any cost, is priority number 1

So she’s caved in, once again, to the ERG headbangers and is now just going through the motions and running down the clock to a No Deal Brexit

A totally depressing read

So it looks like, according to yougov, Corbyn has simultaneously lost support to the lib Dems, the greens and to a lesser extent ukip.

Well every survey/poll I’ve done has asked you to say how well each party is doing on Brexit and if their position is clear.

Kicking it down the road isn’t going to work.

What do you mean by “work”?

If it “frees” us from the “evil” EU, while keeping Corbyn, Milne & Co in charge of the Labour Party… then it is working just fine for them.

Can’t say I’m surprised Binners, start buying crossbows and tinned food. 😀

I will never vote Labour again.

Don’t go crazy… but DO make sure you have a surplus of any essential medical supplies. Anyone not gaming their prescription to get a couple of months of leeway, just in case, should be working at putting that in place RIGHT NOW.

Nahh man, I’m going to go and build an Anderson shelter in my old mans back yard. It’s on the right side of one of the Sheffield valleys to survive a Chinese nuclear strike after Williamson starts WW3 to distract us from having to eat rats.

I think you’ll find that the Spirit of the Blitz is just what’s needed to bring us all together

is now just going through the motions and running down the clock to a No Deal Brexit

Yep. I’m no pretty much convinced we are leaving with no-deal. Expsicailly with the constant shifting of any votes later and later.

Looks like T-Maybot is set to step down in the summer.

This is one of the (many) things that annoys me about this whole debacle.

When the proverbial inevitably hits the fan, those directly culpable will just “do a Cameron” and sod off to their holiday homes in the South of France with their newly acquired German / Irish / etc passports and offshore bank accounts. The Teflon-coated shitehawks.

Wonder what Jeremy will make of this – or will he just ignore it.

This is what Jeremy Corbyn will see when he goes home this evening – a billboard from young Labour members calling for a #PeoplesVote. pic.twitter.com/omgQb3XOFL

— LBC (@LBC) February 12, 2019

Yep. I’m no pretty much convinced we are leaving with no-deal.

At this point I think the single most likely outcome by a country mile is the UK asking for an extension of A50. Credit where it’s due, there’s one thing that the government has been consistently brilliant at over the last two years and that’s coming up with ever more desperate can-kicking delaying tactics in lieu of actually doing anything.

Come March 28th, I’ll bet one of my lesser-used internal organs that May will be in Brussels begging for an extension, like a University student who’s spent the last three months consuming their own bodyweight in Diamond White and then suddenly realised that their assignment is due tomorrow and they’ve got as far as writing the title page.

Still. Take back control, hey.

I’ve seen a theory that people with substantially different intellect or life experience will mutually view each other as incomprehensible  or stupid. So Dave from down the pub would just not understand the arguments of the award winning economist, dismissing them out of hand based on his world view, and vice versa. I’m now starting to hope that this applies to our politicians, and that to them we are all like Dave from down the pub. Sadly I fear the truth is the other way round.

Come March 28th, I’ll bet one of my lesser-used internal organs that May will be in Brussels begging for an extension,

No chance. She’ll be sitting on her sofa while the country goes up in flames.

Unless enough Labour idiots(*) believe her lies and vote for her crappy deal.

*yes, I know that looks a bit like a tautology at this point.

So Dave from down the pub would just not understand the arguments of the award winning economist, dismissing them out of hand

I’m afraid that idiots have been given examples of specious reasoning to justify their idiotic conclusions – glib phrases like “well, it’s just a theory”, as trotted out by creationists, climate deniers etc are now used to justify stuff like not believing in gravity, creating wonderful trade deals etc.

I’ve seen a theory that people with substantially different intellect or life experience will mutually view each other as incomprehensible or stupid. So Dave from down the pub would just not understand the arguments of the award winning economist, dismissing them out of hand based on his world view, and vice versa. I’m now starting to hope that this applies to our politicians, and that to them we are all like Dave from down the pub. Sadly I fear the truth is the other way round.

As I’ve got older and less arrogant what I have come to appreciate is that a reasonable education (and by that I mean A level or degree level or above study, not the price of the institution you went to) gives you the ability to understand when you know you don’t know something. That sometimes you have to acknowledge that you don’t have the expertise and need to acquiesce to someone that does. That education also gives you a better sense of smell for bullshiters where searching for your go to expert. Dave down the pub’s problem is invariably he does not have the intellect or educative experience to appreciate what a dumbf*** he is on a subject or how useless his source material is.

Why grant an extension? The obvious reply is “well you’re out now but we’ll just carry on as before and you’ll slowly have to adapt, just like you did when you came in, with realistic deadlines being set”. Getting a concensus for an extension is not going to be easy, the only two EU concensus are the deal signed or withdraw Art. 50.

At this point I think the single most likely outcome by a country mile is the UK asking for an extension of A50.

This is is my view.

The No-deal scenario is a simple line in the sand. After the date you still have options.

A) Remain in the EU and continue to be part of it.

B) Extend A50 whilst this government and its associated parties kick each other in the groin, repeatedly.

Don’t forget A50 needs pens on paper. To revoke it doesn’t, to extend it doesn’t.

Convert – reading that makes a lot of sense…

I just hope that if we do crash to a No-Deal Brexit that T-Bot is going to share her insulin supplies with my daughter…

No mention of Brexit at all in todays cabinet apparently…

Not so, Bikebouy. Extending Art. 50 requires unanimous agreement of the 27.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

Why grant an extension?

At this point I think the single most likely outcome by a country mile is the UK asking for an extension of A50.

Yeah sums it up, we can ask for an extension to which the reply is what is going to change?

We are not arguing over minor points it’s substantial issues that the UK does not want to accept.

The only way the negotiations will restart is with a group who have a decent plan and a sizeable majority to agree that, if not the EU just delays the flounce.

The headbangers are running the show. When even Leadsom makes noises suggesting that even she knows their game is to run the clock down and then still oppose any deal on a technicality, then the situation is desperate.

“The point is to ensure that the UK cannot be held in a backstop permanently. How it’s achieved is not something to be purist about,” she said.

But in the same breath she is still happy to use peace and stability in Northern Ireland as a means of blackmail.

“It would be an extraordinary outcome if the thing the backstop is seeking to avoid – a hard border in Northern Ireland – if the EU were so determined to be completely intransigent about it that they actually incur the very thing they are seeking to avoid by pushing the UK into a situation where we leave without a deal at the end of March,” she said.

Worrying times – if the nutters are worrying the likes of Leadsom we are headed for a very dark place indeed.

Don’t forget A50 needs pens on paper. To revoke it doesn’t, to extend it doesn’t.

I’m not sure I get what you mean. Pen has been put to paper on A50. It’s what happens as a default on March 29th. Revoke and extend need pen to paper to implement them. I would be surprised if the EU would agree to an extension without some caveats.

I’m not sure I get what you mean. Pen has been put to paper on A50. It’s what happens as a default on March 29th. Revoke and extend need pen to paper to implement them. I would be surprised if the EU would agree to an extension without some caveats.

Two of those caveats being Gibraltar to Spain and fish to France.

It’s OUR barren lump of rock and we have huge aircraft carrier that says so!!

I would imagine that the EU member nations will have privately agreed to give authority to Barnier to agree an extension without needing to vote, they’ve given him the negotiating authority.

That education also gives you a better sense of smell for bullshiters where searching for your go to expert. Dave down the pub’s problem is invariably he does not have the intellect or educative experience to appreciate what a dumbf*** he is on a subject or how useless his source material is.

STW big hitter then.

Two of those caveats being Gibraltar to Spain and fish to France.

If you believe the Express’s jingoistic* reporting

*Of just about everything, not just Brexit.

There appears to be a lot of support in Spain for linking an extension of Article 50 to ‘something’ on Gibraltar. I’m sure some of it is for domestic consumption and it may well be that Spain get told to drop it if an extension is in the EU’s interest but why wouldn’t they ask for it?

As I’ve got older and less arrogant what I have come to appreciate is that a reasonable education (and by that I mean A level or degree level or above study, not the price of the institution you went to) gives you the ability to understand when you know you don’t know something.

School, for a lot of people, is adversarial. Teachers are the bastards trying to make you do boring stuff, and you are trying to get out of it. Whereas if/when you get past that, you’re there to learn and you’re in a genuine learning environment and your goal is to develop and progress. Huge change in outlook.

the EU aren’t bothered about Gibraltar, it’s just a jingoistic bit of tabloid nonsense. Gibraltarians want to stay in the UK, there is a border, Spain are one member. They are all about the trade rules so the fishing areas are probably more relevant but even these aren’t the main deal.

Grauniad’s political correspondent suggesting this on Twitter:

@jessicaelgot

This scenario would have seemed unthinkable just weeks ago and now seems one of the most probable – A final offer at the March 22 EU summit, with the offer of a short A50 extension. A vote in parliament the following week. If lost, then no deal.

But then what happens to the backlog of legislation that needs to get through parliament to underpin No Deal?

And as we know, the last thing a political party wants is an informed and educated electorate

France is definitely bothered about Gibralta as an airbnb card, which is a payment card but not a credit card so not subject to banking rules allows payment the French fisc can’t see. It’s possible because of Gibraltan laws that facilitate tax avoidance.

But then what happens to the backlog of legislation that needs to get through parliament to underpin No Deal?

Isn’t that what the transition period is for?

But then what happens to the backlog of legislation that needs to get through parliament to underpin No Deal?

Easy. Unicorns.

Isn’t that what the transition period is for?

No Deal = no transition period.  All we have is the EU’s olive branch to stop us being as completely shafted as we would be if we ‘just left’.