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Scotland Indyref 2
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the-muffin-manFull Member
Although I do think that negotiations with Westminster on a reasonable package would prove impossible as, as we have seen, you can’t negotiate if the other side doesn’t bother engaging.
New broom in charge now so maybe some progress on that?…
Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, he said: “The people of Scotland want us to be working on fixing the major challenges that we collectively face, whether that’s the economy, supporting the NHS or indeed supporting Ukraine.
“Now is the time for politicians to work together and that’s what this government will do.”molgripsFree MemberMy preferred solution would be a proper federal UK with properly representative democratic voting processes. Its not on offer and never will be
Why not though? Serious question?
Also, question 2: do you think an Indy Scotland and possible successful joining of the EU is likely before the UK eventually goes crawling back?
tjagainFull MemberWhy not though? Serious question?
Totally rejected by both main parties in Westminster
do you think an Indy Scotland and possible successful joining of the EU is likely before the UK eventually goes crawling back?
Yes. No major issues with iScotland joining, the will is there on both sides, it could be done in a very short timespan.
Uk – its not happening for decades if ever
argeeFull MemberThey’ve not worked out the cost, either positive or negative of joining the EU, or actually understanding the time it would take to join, and what happens in-between, so many questions that need answers to either support independence, or be against it.
kenneththecurtainFree MemberThey’ve not worked out the cost, either positive or negative of joining the EU, or actually understanding the time it would take to join, and what happens in-between, so many questions that need answers to either support independence, or be against it.
Yea, the UK government would never allow a referundum on leaving a union without this kind of detail being available.
Oh…
tjagainFull MemberThey’ve not worked out the cost, either positive or negative of joining the EU,
Thats not rocket science. We will be net contributors and IIRC at a smaller rate per head of population that the UK. We of course know that every £ paid into the EU you get back multiple times in increased trade. all well known stuff
or actually understanding the time it would take to join
given we are compliant with EU law there is no need for it to take very long at all. last time around the Scottish government wanted to ask questions like this. EU can only respond to questions from the UK government. The Uk government refused to ask. Now post brexit the EU will be able to answer these questions when presented by the scots government
Last time the Scots Government published a lengthy paper detailing much of these sorts of questions and i am sure will do so again
dyna-tiFull MemberYes. No major issues with iScotland joining, the will is there on both sides, it could be done in a very short timespan.
Uk – its not happening for decades if ever
Well the whole ‘Independent Scotland’ has been on the go for over 800 years. I think we’re ok with waiting 😉
kelvinFull Memberor actually understanding the time it would take to join
2030. With Ukraine. Assuming support for independence now increases beyond that which a UK government can not ignore, and I wouldn’t bet against that now the nature of the relationship is being made clearer. Desperate stuff all this… all it needed was for the devolved administration to have been involved and have a say in what form Brexit took, and for that to enable deeper devolution, and the support for an Indy Scotland could have been dying away now.
molgripsFree MemberYes. No major issues with iScotland joining, the will is there on both sides, it could be done in a very short timespan.
Uk – its not happening for decades if ever
Point is, you have to win a referendum first. And it should take a LONG time to actually leave, and rightly so.
argeeFull MemberThats not rocket science. We will be net contributors and IIRC at a smaller rate per head of population that the UK. We of course know that every £ paid into the EU you get back multiple times in increased trade. all well known stuff
TJ, i was meaning for the DefactoRef, give the facts and sell it then, focus on that over the next year or two.
Both sides know what they’re doing though, UK Gov know the longer the SNP are in power in the current format, the more they can flounder, the next year or so is recession hell as well, so more negativity, it’s the same for SNP, they want IndyRef2 now as the tories are eating themselves, the country (and world) is in a bad state and so on.
All i know is that i hear two stories, those independents who want it without care of the positives or negatives, and those wall sitters who want to know if they will be better or worse off.
tjagainFull MemberAnd it should take a LONG time to actually leave, and rightly so.
Why?
The quicker its done the less disruption.
molgripsFree MemberIt needs to be done right not rushed through, like Brexit. This kind of negotiation is very complicated and should take time. I’m sure you’ll say “it’s perfectly simple” but I’m not convinced.
BruceWeeFree MemberIt’s just a poll, but it’s still interesting assuming it gives us an insight into where the country is starting from:
50% of Scottish voters would vote SNP at the next general election if it could lead to Scotland leaving the UK, an exclusive Channel 4 News poll by Find Out Now has found.
When asked what's most important to them, 26% of respondents said Scottish independence. pic.twitter.com/lHfRkXODi7
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) November 23, 2022
molgripsFree MemberHmm.. that seems to suggest that independence as a concept is less important than the usual healthcare/schools/jobs etc. Maybe people don’t realise that healthcare/schools/jobs are what’s at stake here?
BruceWeeFree MemberMaybe people don’t realise that healthcare/schools/jobs are what’s at stake here?
Or they realise that’s exactly what’s at stake.
You seem to be suggesting healthcare/schools/jobs will all suffer under independence. Maybe people believe these things are going to suffer more under the union than under independence.
DracFull MemberIf it could lead to the leaving the UK. Meanwhile the courts have rules it’s that it can’t be done like that and the last referendum showed that more than 50% don’t want to leave.
BruceWeeFree MemberIf it could lead to the leaving the UK. Meanwhile the courts have rules it’s that it can’t be done like that and the last referendum showed that more than 50% don’t want to leave.
tbh, I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Are you saying that because of the court ruling everyone has to get back in their box and be quiet?
Also, you are aware that there has been a fairly significant development since 2014 that many would argue makes the No arguments from back then null and void?
molgripsFree MemberIt may be that the SNP voters know that there’d simply be a referendum in which they could vote No, thereby cancelling out their SNP vote.
tjagainFull MemberWhat that poll says to me is that many folk would be voting for independence – because from that question thats what voting SNP would mean – because they believe as I do those things that are important ie schools and hospitals would be better if we were independent. IE pragmatic independence supporters like me. So Schools and hospitals are the most important issue. Independence is how we achieve better
Independence is not the aim – its the vehicle
tjagainFull MemberIt may be that the SNP voters know that there’d simply be a referendum in which they could vote No, thereby cancelling out their SNP vote.
No molgrips – read it. They know that voting SNP at the next election – and thats a significant increase in the vote – would lead to independence without another poll
If the SNP do make the next GE a defacto referendum I will vote SNP – something I have never done before
tjagainFull MemberMaybe people don’t realise that healthcare/schools/jobs are what’s at stake here?
Thats the reverse of what that poll says – it says that people understand independence is the best way to improve services
TwodogsFull MemberThis kind of negotiation is very complicated and should take time. I’m sure you’ll say “it’s perfectly simple” but I’m not convinced.
This. What is the current proposal for a currency for an independent Scotland? (That’s where they lost it for me last time…there was no coherent plan in place).
tjagainFull MemberNo plan as yet. I’m sure there will be and like yo I want a better answer than last time
The problem is adopting the euro is the obvious best answer but after 20 years of anti EU propaganda its a vote loser
tjagainFull MemberSo would using the euro be? Are you saying Germany is not independent?
Remember the bank of england is the UK reserve bank so partly belongs to Scotland.
There are also several countries that use the dollar
molgripsFree MemberNo molgrips – read it. They know that voting SNP at the next election – and thats a significant increase in the vote – would lead to independence without another poll
I have read the tweet – is there a link to the actual poll questions?
BruceWeeFree MemberI think the SNP has to get away from saying there is one single plan this time around. Most decisions are going to rely on a series of previous decisions.
As far as currency goes, I would lay out options and make clear what the preferences are. For example: ‘We’d prefer a currency union but failing that our next option would be our own currency, followed by the Euro, followed by using the pound without a currency union.’ Not my opinion, by the way, just an example.
My question to the No side would be, what is the exchange rate between the Euro and the Pound going to be in 5 years time? What are interest rates going to be in 5 years time?
If you’re going to demand assurances and guarantees from the Yes side I think it’s only fair you provide assurances and guarantees yourself.
The union is no longer the stable option.
TwodogsFull MemberSo would using the euro be? Are you saying Germany is not independent?
Tbh honest I don’t fully understand how the ECB operates with member states, whether they have any freedom to set monetary policy (assume they do with fiscal policy).
The difference is, Germany chose to join a union and currency…Scotland would have voted to leave UK so to continue to use GBP would seem odd, to say the least
BruceWeeFree MemberI have read the tweet – is there a link to the actual poll questions?
Bit more info here:
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23146084.channel-4-poll-half-scots-vote-snp-leave-uk/
But yeah, it’s just a poll and nothing for anyone to get too carried away about.
roverpigFull MemberMy feeling is that support for independence is ebbing away as the realities of the effects of brexit start to be felt. It’s easy to say that you’d be willing to sacrifice some wealth (at least in the short term) for more control, but once you see what sacrificing a bit of wealth actually feels like it becomes less attractive. It’s only anecdotal, but I’ve certainly heard a lot more of the “brexit is a mess and independence would be even more of a mess” sentiment recently.
There will be a lot of heat about whether Scotland should be allowed to hold a referendum or not, but personally I think it’s pointless talking about it unless and until there is a solid 60% supporting independence.
inthebordersFree MemberIt needs to be done right not rushed through, like Brexit. This kind of negotiation is very complicated and should take time. I’m sure you’ll say “it’s perfectly simple” but I’m not convinced.
Based on Westminsters actions and Brexit there’s little/no negotiation possible, so we just go.
Yep, but remaining tied to GBP isn’t independence 😉
Says who? Remind us of your expertise. Next you’ll be telling us that joining the EU means giving up our sovereignty.
tjagainFull MemberIts not what the polls say roverpig. Indeed that poll above shows a few % increase
Its been hovering in the high 40% area for a while
I think most of us would prefer a decisive result / opinion one way or the other.
inthebordersFree MemberThere will be a lot of heat about whether Scotland should be allowed to hold a referendum or not, but personally I think it’s pointless talking about it unless and until there is a solid 60% supporting independence.
And you’ll come to that (60%) conclusion how exactly?
TwodogsFull MemberRemind us of your expertise.
😂
Like most on here, I’m not an expert, but I’m allowed to voice my opinion. (I did spend several years working to mitigate the impact of Brexit on one small area of financial services (passporting) so do have some experience of how complex even a small thing like that can be).
To say “we can just leave” is naive nonsense.
mashrFull Memberroverpig
Full Member
My feeling is that support for independence is ebbing away as the realities of the effects of brexit start to be felt.My feeling is that support for independence is growing as the realities of the effects of brexit start to be felt. People would rather get away from that Tory-led shit show, and the feeling that the Governing/Leadership was the issue rather than Brexit itself
gordimhorFull MemberThat’s always going to be a difficult sell roverpig.
There was a 40% of the electorate requirement for devolution in 1979.
That was so poorly defined that people who had emigrated or died but whose names were still on the electoral roll were were still counted, effectively voting against devolution.
Why should we accept a 60% requirement from the same folk who gave us the previous seriously flawed deal in 1979tjagainFull MemberI don’t read roverpigs post as saying there should be a supermajority but that it would be best if the result was decisive and also echos what Sturgeon said – that she wanted to see polls in the 60% region before another referendum
BruceWeeFree MemberTo paraphrase Churchill, 50% + 1 vote is the worst way to decide a referendum.
Apart from all the other options.
DracFull Membertbh, I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Are you saying that because of the court ruling everyone has to get back in their box and be quiet?
Also, you are aware that there has been a fairly significant development since 2014 that many would argue makes the No arguments from back then null and void?
No, I’m saying it’s not as simple as the SNP being voted it in will allow it to happen.
Yes I am aware but one other thing is the number of young Scottish who can also now vote. It would seem most of those also want to remain.
Regardless it’s won’t happen quickly, it could take decades or not happen at all.
tpbikerFree MemberAnd you’ll come to that (60%) conclusion how exactly?
Well brexit, if nothing else, shows that a razor thin majority is a terrible idea for changing a status quo. It would probably have swung the other way if the same vote had happened a month later
Do you honestly think we should have left the EU based on a tiny percentage of swing voters who were probably too stupid to understand the issues or who’s vote would change from one day to the next, yet these people have impacted the state of our country for generations to come
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