Scotland Indyref 2

I suppose it’s inevitable, now.

16 year olds get to vote in this one, and as this will all be about EU membership it will be a big boost.

Currency will be an issue, can they make it work without oil money?

I imagine Sturgeon will be looking at Nissan and all those companies South of the border who were very happy being in the EU and rubbing her hands

bloody stupid – I voted yes 2 years ago but I’d vote no now. She can’t believe in democracy like a lot of other remain voters. The UK voted, the vote ratio in scotland is irrelavent. She needs to get off this stupid vector and get back to running the country properly.

Currency will be an issue – though many thought hanging on to the pound was a mistake anyway.

Borders will be another. An EU Scotland and isolated Englandandwales will require some border control. That will make it particularly difficult for folk near the border that live/work on opposite sides.

And the “where is our largest market” argument favoured by Remain will also apply.

So – not very persuasive when those taken into account. However, Denmark shows that states made up of individual nation regions can be both in and out of the EU. Some compromise of that sort might be possible.

It’s a tough one. Sturgeon is smart, very smart but not two years ago Scotland committed (by a much greater margin than the EU referendum) to remain part of and be bound to the UK.

The UK (partly due to low turnout in Scotland) has voted to leave. I didn’t vote to leave, does that mean I can stay an EU citizen-no. I am bound by the result and Scotland should be too. I

How Sturgeon will play it though remains to be seen.

However, I can see the scenario where Scotland calling for a second referendum coupled with negotiations going badly on the actual terms of Brexit people having a strong call for a second EU referendum using a similar argument to the Scots-this isn’t what we voted for…

Without rerunning the arguments of last time, but:

Currency: We do need a better answer on this, we should just lay out the options instead of saying that the first option is definitely the one that’ll happen.

Borders: This’ll be difficult, but it’s a problem that’ll have to be solved between NI and Ireland as well. Other countries manage to have land borders, perhaps the US/Canada border would be a good model, though that would need some kind of diplomatic agreement.

not two years ago Scotland committed (by a much greater margin than the EU referendum)

Not in Scotland, though. In Scotland (which is what matters for the vote here, not UK-wide), the No vote was 55% and the Remain vote was 62%.

Ah yes – it’s the fault of the Scots.

Ah yes – it’s the fault of the Scots.

Yup, I’ve heard that several times. In reality, even if turnout in Scotland had been 150%, Leave would still have won.

The UK (partly due to low turnout in Scotland) has voted to leave. I didn’t vote to leave, does that mean I can stay an EU citizen-no. I am bound by the result and Scotland should be too.

That kind of sensible talk has no place in STW lol

I don’t get why people are demonstrating and getting upset over this. The people of the UK voted in a democratic way and one group lost, one group won. Why can’t people just accept the result and get on with their life’s, they can’t do anything to change the outcome. Some people’s behaviour is pretty pathetic.

Currency issue is the only hurdle now.

Except they can

Currency issue is the only hurdle now.

Pretty irrelevant if you don’t have enough of it. Oil is the main issue.

The people of the UK voted in a democratic way and one group lost, one group won.

The basis of this argument is that you think the UK is one country. A lot of people in Scotland, perhaps a majority, disagree with you.

Imagine if a EU-wide referendum had been held on something. Would you have been as keen to observe the majority verdict then?

Oil is the main issue.

Could they offset that by benefiting from the Brexodus of businesses that want to stay in the EU?

Certainly it was discussed at my institute if Scotland still has access to EU science funding

I don’t get why people are demonstrating and getting upset over this. The people of the UK voted in a democratic way and one group lost, one group won. Why can’t people just accept the result and get on with their life’s, they can’t do anything to change the outcome. Some people’s behaviour is pretty pathetic.

only 72% voted, so about 37% of the electorate chose to leave the EU. Partly this mess is for not drawing up proper rules like 50% of the possible vote or a minimum turn out or compulsory voting for something so important. But yes it is over and not it’s time to work out what to do next, legitimately there are some serious concerns from Scotland and NI. It would be foolish for both not to consider all options.

My current thoughts, if Nicola Sturgeon can negotiate Scotland remaining in the EU under the same terms as currently in place, e.g. no euro, same vetos, similar funding, then the case for independence is strong. Chances of her getting this? Near zero. Brussels has bigger fish to fry and I think she will be overlooked.

As for Scotland becoming independent then rejoining the EU, I don’t think this option would be favourable. We’d have to adopt the euro, have no vetos, and be a long way down the pecking order.

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing it’s true colours and it’s ugly.

Edit: I voted to remain BTW, but remain in the EU as it was. From Friday morning that EU ceased to exist and I’m don’t like what I see in it’s place or what I believe it will become.

Could they offset that by benefiting from the Brexodus of businesses that want to stay in the EU?

Sure. That’s obviously a risky strategy compared to x$ a barrel balances the books.

I’d relocate to Scotland if the tax regime was favourable. I suspect Boris may have a similar strategy in mind though.

Oil is the main issue

Wanting independence on the back of oil is extremely short sighted. It won’t last even in my lifetime nor will the need for it.

And as for currency I’d take the Euro.

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing it’s true colours and it’s ugly.

For that reason maybe he’d welcome them with open arms to really stick the boot into the English

It would be great PR to get another star back on the flag quickly!

Could they offset that by benefiting from the Brexodus of businesses that want to stay in the EU? [/quote]IIRC (sorry I don’t have figures and links) Scotlands GDP was something like 90% of the UK GDP even without oil.

If the UKs economy tanks (as many expect) then the positions could easily be reversed. Add to that things like company relocation (financial services would be an easy one) and an iScotland economy could look a lot brighter even without oil

Wanting independence on the back of oil is extremely short sighted.

True. But in the short term it would make independence viable. Starting broke with the hope of turning it around doesn’t seem very desirable.

But if you’re on a downwards trajectory as part of the UK, putting the brakes on sooner rather than later might be a good idea.

If the UKs economy tanks (as many expect) then the positions could easily be reversed. Add to that things like company relocation (financial services would be an easy one) and an iScotland economy could look a lot brighter even without oil

This is something I’d thought of too. But it would rely on Scotland never leaving the EU, a deal I don’t think could be cut. I think Scotland would have to leave the UK first, then rejoin the EU… and there are fair few other countries in that queue.

Dunno. It would depend on the EU.

I think Scotland would have to leave the UK first, then rejoin the EU… and there are fair few other countries in that queue.

It’s not a first-in first-out sort of a queue.

I don’t think it would be a shoo-in, but political expediency might make some improbable things possible.

But if you’re on a downwards trajectory as part of the UK, putting the brakes on sooner rather than later might be a good idea.

Lots of ifs in that, but they could probably sell it. You’d have to be a real optimist to want to be in charge of that.

Does Sturgeon have a Boris sized ego?

Regardless and come indy ref 2, it’s clear that the arguments and cases are going to have to be clear cut on both sides. Half truths, finger in the air type arguments are not going to wash. It needs to be clear what you’re voting for…… that might be wishful thinking!

You say, @poah, that you voted yes in indyref0 and would now vote No. Within my circle of discussion friends there are a good handful that would go the other way, now, to remain in the EU. I was undecided before, but voted – suspect I would much more tempted to vote yes if time came.

But haven’t we been discussing (on the Brexit thread) how there are no absolute certainties? Either choice is predicated on lots of assumptions and what-ifs – e.g. if you just voted to Leave then you did so not knowing how any treaty negotiations would work out.

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing its true colours and it’s ugly

I’d guess the MDs of BMW, Merc, VAG, Bosch, Miele, and maybe a few others have been on the phone to him already.

I was a no voter who voted remain , i was gutted yesterday and if you had put a ballet paper in front of me yesterday i would of voted yes in a heartbeat . But the more i think it appears to me that answering the questions about scottish independence became more complicated not more simple . Currency , borders , oil , the fact that the uk is the biggest trading partner not the eu all need clear robust answers .
Its also interesting how Nicola’s language has been less certain than Salmonds

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing it’s true colours and it’s ugly.

Oh FFS the UK made its choice and idiots are still trying to blame the EU for the fallout, did you really not realise the EU would act in the best interests of an EU without the UK. The UK told the EU to **** off and you still expect it to come and cuddle and give you a peck on the cheek.

It’s not a first-in first-out sort of a queue.

It may not be, but why would an out-of-the-EU independent Scotland be ahead of say, Macedonia or Turkey?

Also all states have to agree, how would Spain feel about this, with reference to Catalonia? Scotland remaining, or Scotland leaving and rejoining may set a precedence Spain don’t want to set.

I think talk of a referendum is a bit premature. Ok most of Scotland wanted to stay in the EU however now by a majority (English or otherwise) we are out (that’s democracy). Since we now find ourselves out would it not be a good thing to take stock and see where we are (it may be that being out the EU is not all that bad). So leave it 5 years or so to see how things pan out. But now we have wee Jimmy Krankie pushing her own personal agenda without to my mind the people of Scotlands interest at heart. Also if we split from the UK I believe the Spanish government would object to us joining (the EU) as they do not want the Catalans doing the same as us so it would be doubtful that we would get in anyway.

I’m asking here not stating but is Scotland not recognised by the EU as a nation and catalonia is not? Also with Scotland already being part of the EU would that not be easier to transition. Principally the Scottish government is asking to remain as per the wishes of the people.

Dunno Kaiser that is the problem everything is up in the air at the moment and no-one seems to have any answers.I suppose if we could remain in I would be up for that but if it meant going out with no certainty of what was ahead I would be against that.

Oh FFS the UK made its choice and idiots are still trying to blame the EU for the fallout, did you really not realise the EU would act in the best interests of an EU without the UK. The UK told the EU to **** off and you still expect it to come and cuddle and give you a peck on the cheek.

To expand on that, in or out of the EU it would appear you’re treated the same. DC’s renegotiation attempt is evidence of that. I’m only seeing the whole picture now.

Calling someone an idiot, directly or indirectly is less than helpful

But haven’t we been discussing (on the Brexit thread) how there are no absolute certainties? Either choice is predicated on lots of assumptions and what-ifs – e.g. if you just voted to Leave then you did so not knowing how any treaty negotiations would work out.

I was thinking along the lines of Sturgeon could go to Brussels and strike a deal (or not) then then what’s on offer would be clearer. They can be definite on the route, either Scotland remain, or leave and rejoin. Those routes are very different with different consequences

answering the questions about scottish independence became more complicated

This is a worry of mine too, everyone has a limit on their capacity for interpreting complexity, some lower that others. Simplifying the arguments may be demanded by voters but may not be possible. That’s where the half truths and obfuscation could creep in

I was thinking along the lines of Sturgeon could go to Brussels and strike a deal (or not) then then what’s on offer would be clearer. They can be definite on the route, either Scotland remain, or leave and rejoin. Those routes are very different with different consequences
[/quote]True. Having a definite statement on the Scotland/EU relationship would be a positive one or the other. Previously, the EU said they couldn’t speak to the Scottish Govt but, you know, politics….

Please God let the Scots go, they can have their independence, Westminster can stop subsidizing the country and Scotland can become Europe’s problem instead.
This is an excellent week!