Osbourne says no to currency union.

Says the man who dismisses out of hand the assessment

No, I dismissed out of hand the *predictions* made by the OECD

Because they’re predictions

And we all know how reliable fiscal predictions are 😆

Er, can we get back to discussing how Sir BS of Eck will make even more of a mess of the Scottish economy?

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/11/oecd-overstating-growth-forecasts

A failure to spot the severity of the eurozone crisis and the impact of the meltdown of the global banking system led to consistent forecasting errors in recent years, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development admitted on Tuesday.

The Paris-based organisation said it repeatedly overestimated growth prospects for countries around the world between 2007 and 2012. The OECD revised down forecasts at the onset of the financial crisis, but by an insufficient degree, it said.

Because they’re predictions

If it’s the predictions that bother you why are you ignoring the “facts” ? Do you want me to post them again ?

OK

26 February 2010 : UK economic growth revised up to 0.3%

Quote :

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the final three months of last year, faster than previously estimated.

This revision will be seen as a vindication of the City analysts who thought the economy in the last months of 2009 was stronger than the official statistics implied.

The Tories inherited a growing economy, no amount of spin can change that fact.

Er, can we get back to discussing how Sir BS of Eck will make even more of a mess of the Scottish economy?

I have heard his predictions and tbh its going to be awesome anything else is basically because you are stupid and english though the “and” is probably superfluous here
Give me a minute and I will post up a 150 page article as proof, neither of us will read it and we can argue about the source instead.

Will that do?

TADA here it is

TO save you time it Salmonds white paper and look it proves this

Will we be able to keep the pound or will we be forced to join
the euro?
Scotland will continue to use the pound, just as we do today.
The Scottish Government’s expert advisers, the Fiscal
Commission, have set out a clear framework for this. It will
be in the interests of the rest of the UK as well as Scotland.

P39 8)

Do i really have to find an outlandish economic claim now?

Only independence provides the opportunity to build an
economy to take advantage of our unique strengths and
size, and to deliver a more prosperous, resilient and fairer
Scotland, fully engaged in Europe and the wider world

P17 …ok off to get a life now…I may be some time

Funny to read what the OECD actually said in and between 2009-2011 especially about the unsustainabilty of the 2009 upturn. God, it must be sad if every point has to be phrased in a uniquely poltical manner. The OECD pointed out at the time that growth would slow in 2010 due to “necessary fiscal tightening” (their words) and a slowdown in world trade. So why did the UK require fiscal tightening and who is responsible for a slowdown in world trade? If the UK followed THEIR presciptions (rightly or wrongly) they expected the economy to recover only from 2012.

Hardly an upbeat assessment that everything was hunky dory in 2010 or that the subsequent policies in their view were wrong. Of course, it turns out later that one important variable in their prescriptions for the UK (the fiscal multiplier) turned out to be very differnt to those used in their models. Not surprising that the Chancellor then did not follow through on the more aggressive deficit reduction prescriptions made by some.

Of course, if we had built up a budget surplus during the false boom, or at the very least not allowed to increase at the wrong point of the cycle, life would have been a lot easier. Odd, that it was a group of self-proclaimed Keynesian economists who forgot their basic teaching when in control. Even more frustrating that they had delivered a budget surplus (it took a labour gov to deliver that unusual UK even, a budget surplus) before hubris took over.

Si solum…..

For balance you should have pointed out GO and the Tories agreed with Labour spending plans pre crash.

I think labours view is the public sector got so shafted under the Tories it needed long term investment to sort it out hence the spending.

That said you are not incorrect that the we should save in the good times. However its unlikely any political party will leave billions in the coffers for the next lot
Cons would do a tax cut [ for the wealthy] I imagine and labour spend it on the NHS or some such do gooder stuff . Both would strengthen their core vote by spending the other parties money

It makes economic sesne to save but not political sense sadly.

Junkyard – lazarus

I think labours view is the public sector got so shafted under the Tories it needed long term investment to sort it out hence the spending.

That’s the cosmic cycle isn’t it? Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector, Labour declare Tories have ruined public sector and spend money to fix it, Tories declare Labour have spent too much and slash the public sector,

If you look at that for long enough, you’ll see a sailboat.

All I see is a shit sandwich

And we’re the ones who are forced to eat it:-)
labour or Tory makes no difference, Scotland has a chance to make a difference on September 18th

Tomorrow’s Sunday Herald:

Oh, and the latest Panelbase poll puts Yes on 47% once you exclude the undecideds.

Panelbase polls are all quite high, yougov polls tend to be low. With the undecided included the yes vote is only 40% and the chances of the undecided not voting is slim given how the debate has gripped Scotland. The average poll result over the last 20 polls is only 33.75% voting yes. The no vote is still in the lead and no amount of statistical massage is going to change that. There is still a lot of time to go though and it is the vote on the day that counts not the polls.

Hardly an upbeat assessment that everything was hunky dory in 2010 …..

No one claimed that everything was “hunky dory” in 2010 🙄

The period following a recession is always going to be fragile …… no one expects to go from severe recession straight into strong growth.

Which is precisely why the Tory determination to apply deficit reduction policies when the country has only just emerging from recession particularly stupid and irresponsible, and why recovery was delayed by several years.

But then of course the aim wasn’t really to clear the deficit, after all for almost the entire period the Tories have been in power since the end of the second world war the the UK has had a deficit. And that never seemed to have bothered them before.

No the real reason was to use mess created by the friends and supporters in the banking sector as a excuse to severely cut back on social provisions which ordinary working people rely on.

They’re not even bothered in cutting back government spending as long as it benefits them, eg, pays for unemployment which helps them enormously to minimise the wage bill.

Spot on.

Link to the panelbase poll please

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/currency-furore-over-mystery-of-missing-memos.23890582?

Link to the panelbase poll please

Moving on up

Fair assessment of the UK ernie, however allows nationalists to feel entitled to dust off their Che Guevara t-shirts and back slap their socialist leanings, as if they actually care.

Ben, you often link to sites showing sensationalist headlines from the gutter press to back up a point. Don’t know if a post showing the front page of a newspaper not yet printed at the time, prior to reading any report is a step up. At least it is the Herald this time, and not the Daily Fail.

Take that back – I’ve never linked to the Daily Mail 😉

You link to WOS that does. Allows Daily Mail to be used indirectly. That was the s**t doesn’t stick.
The Herald report may be interesting, however an image of an as yet unprinted newspaper doesn’t reveal much.

Piemonster linked to the herald article up there ^

And since you don’t like WOS, how about the Sunday Times?

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/ScottishReferendum/article1396930.ece

Hard to read on a mobile, who commissioned that poll

Ignore that, I can see it now. Should have known really

It was the same polling company that correctly predicted the swing towards the Nat’s at the last election.

It was 694 years ago today ….. 😉

It was the polling companies customer I was interested in.

In response to Duckman.
It was the same polling company that correctly predicted the swing towards the Nat’s at the last election.

Polling companies do not predict outcomes they ask people questions and then present the results of those question. Panelbase tend to show higher support for independence than other polling organisations. One high poll does not show an increase in support for the yes vote it shows that panelbase have more independence supporters in their polling group.

The lowest poll for a yes vote in 2014 was 29%.
The highest poll for a yes vote in 2014 was 41%.
The lowest poll for a no vote in 2014 was 42%. (Yes on 29%, don’t know on 29%)
The highest poll for a no vote in 2014 was 57%.
The average Yes vote over the last 20 polls since November is 33.75%.

There has been no continual month on month rise in the Yes vote. So there are no figures that suggest a lead in the polls come July. The average of the polls predict a No vote although there are still enough undecided voters to make a difference.

Now, in response to a Freedom of Information request, the Treasury says it has no record of when Macpherson first warned Osborne against a currency union before the February 11 memo, raising further questions about its credibility……”Given the lack of documentation around Sir Nick’s position, it is impossible to claim that ruling out sharing the pound was ever anything more than an ill-advised campaign tactic cooked up by Alistair Darling, as has been reported.

the first part is indeed strange that their is no other documentation relating to advice or discussions on this given how big an issue it is.
I think the conclusion is OTT and as politically motivated as the first now may have been
i said originally the fact the CS said no to union added weight but this is not good if the CS are not impartial and no paper trail exists
Seems like the claims of lies and smears [ to be fair yes are trying to smear here] goes in both directions.
Who would have thunk that.

There has been no continual month on month rise in the Yes vote

GENUINE QUESTION ALERT

has the no vote changed? ie are people moving form No to not sure which one could [ tenuously] class as movement towards the yes position?

Seems there has been a month on month rise in the yes vote according to UKpollingreport.co.uk

Polls so far are here. Different Scottish polls from different companies tend to produce slightly different figures, especially in terms of don’t know. For trends it’s probably best to repercentage to exclude don’t knows, and one should certainly only compare polls from the same company:
Taking them one at a time, ICM had YES on 40% last September, then 46% in January, then 43% in February – YES appear up on September, but recent trends are unclear.
Ipsos MORI we had YES on 34% last September, 37% in December, 36% in February. Again YES appear up on September, but the recent trends are unclear
Survation we had YES on 38% in January, and then on 45% in February and March… but there was a significant methodology change between January and February, so don’t read too much into that shift.
TNS-BMRB we have what looks like a trend. YES was on 36% in October, 38% in November, 40% in December and January, 41% in February.
YouGov appears to show a similar steady but slow trend – 38% in September, 39% in December and January, 40% in February.
Panelbase have consistently shown better scores for YES than other companies, but until today have not really shown a clear trend: 44% in September, 45% in October and November, 43% and 44% in February. Repercentaged to exclude don’t knows today’s YES figure would be 47%… so higher, but not something that couldn’t be normal margin of error.
Putting it all together whatever trend is present is only small, so in individual poll series it is difficult to distinguish it from normal sample variation. Looking across the board though, the direction of travel in recent months does appear to slightly be towards YES.

Does anyone know How this latest poll wad conducted?

Looking across the board though, the direction of travel in recent months does appear to slightly be towards YES.[/u]

I get around change 1% in the last 5 months with an average of 33.75% saying they will vote yes. The figures quoted by gorimor also remove the don’t knows, there has never been a poll showing higher than 44% support for a yes vote since 2012 and that is a distinct outlier.

Faaternotfatter your link doesn’t work

Sorry Gordimhor it wasn’t a link and should have looked like this.

Looking across the board though, the direction of travel in recent months does appear to slightly be towards YES.

I get around change 1% in the last 5 months with an average of 33.75% saying they will vote yes. The figures quoted by gorimor also remove the don’t knows, there has never been a poll showing higher than 44% support for a yes vote since 2012 and that is a distinct outlier.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dab742ba-bda5-11e3-a5ba-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2yB5vWMVG

copy and paste that would ye?

Huh, I was able to view that this morning.

Anyone able to copy and paste the below.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/snp-give-us-big-say-on-energy-or-lights-will-go-out.23891812

Well, the actual report its about is here:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0044/00447981.pdf

Basically, the lights will all go out in England if we don’t keep getting electricity from Scotland, so they are generously offering to retain a shared market rather than independence 😆

The cynic would suggest that the appearance of this paper might, possibly, just, be linked to the upcoming DECC report later this week which is expected to say that Scotland benefits disproportionately from central government renewables investment and subsidy…

the cycnic would say both reports were politically motivated
I doubt anyone really thinks scotland is not windier than rUK on average hence why more are there.