Osbourne says no to currency union.

Thinking about it, Scottish independence could be a perfect way to regenerate the less affluent parts of the NE of England. Large firms relocating there from Edinburgh and Glasgow would still be close enough to the border to retain some of their Scottish workforce whilst retaining all of the benefits of remaining in the UK.

You may wish to look at the map first…, its further than you think.

yes it can, how much negotiation has he entered into to substantiate his book of dreams (not saying Westminster would engage though).

They’ve stated many times that they won’t pre-negotiate. Despite this they are very happy to make announcements on their position when it will harm the Yes campaign.

In fact he seems to be pretty good at ignoring what the EU & BoE are saying, not an ideal way to get the institutions holding the whip hand to come around.

The EU hasn’t said anything on the matter at all, only people within the EU whose opinions have been shown to be misguided and/or wrong (Barosso). The BoE didn’t rule anything out either, only that there would need to be tight controls on any union and this would result in a loss of sovereignty in iScotland. AS seemed pretty happy with this but that’s not what was reported in the media.

Bit like me saying ‘sell me you house for a £1’ and when you say ‘no’ I reply ‘that’s not fair, you’re refusing to negotiate’….

Footflaps, I think we have to cut yS some slack. Hiding behind “they’re not negotiating, misrepresenting assets and liabilities, the three BS, I want, i want, I want” is about all that’s left.

Stiller tries in on again today in response to the SL news with the currency. So let’s gets this straight

1. BoD presents fairy tale currency proposal that is unworkable in practice and in theory
2. independent (by design) technocrats clearly present the reasons why the fairy tales are “just so”, laying out clear reasons (theory and practice) supported by the lessons from past and recent history – all available on the web
3. The major parties in the UK accept this conclusion and make it clear what the terms of future negation will be…(no point pretending that you are going to negotiate an unworkable idea)
4. Complete clarity is given as to the reasons for (3) including HMT documentation providing details behind the decision
5. The brothers and sister Grimm have a wee toy-throwing fit
6. Stiglitz and MIrrlees face a few all-nighters to collect and mend the toys.

Meanwhile, in other news….

THM, if all that is true then why did the independent Scottish fiscal commission recommend a currency union if it’s so totally unworkable? Seems to me the idea works so long as you accept the compromises that would have to be made to the deal with the risk.

so long as you accept the compromises

I think the basic problem is THM doesn’t know the meaning of “compromise” 😉

Because,in their opinion, the disadvantages of a separate currency outweigh the advantages. Unlike other “independent” analysis they do not present the details of their analysis of the pros and cons of the various options * which is why AS is in a bit of a pickle at the moment. He has not prepared answer to this.

Like yS, the FC is laying out a clear argument against independence. Stiglitz and Mirrlees are both leading academics and practioneers in their fields including tax policy (Mirrlees). So they know that their proposal means that in effect Scotland continues to cede control over interest rates, money supply, levels of tax and spending to those nasty folk in Westminster. However, this time, they will have lost much of their representation (if not all) in the decision making process.

Unlike the FC, The Brothers continue to lie saying that you can have the benefits of both your own currency (see lists a few pages back) AND a currency union. Complete deceit.

* I find this very odd and unhelpful (until you remember who is paying for the work!!!)

Ben, you are kidding, I have been married 22 years!! 😉 and remember the words of the Scottish government

The Scottish Government is clear that post-independence it will always be up to the people of Scotland, and their elected government, to decide what our currency should be.

their website intro to the FC report.

We say what we want, stuff what the rest of you think. Comments echoed by wee eck in the past 24 hours. Very compromising.

whatnobeer – Member

THM, if all that is true then why did the independent Scottish fiscal commission recommend a currency union if it’s so totally unworkable? Seems to me the idea works so long as you accept the compromises that would have to be made to the deal with the risk.

For rUK it’s technically workable, but the risks associated with it, make it completely unacceptable.

For iS it’s perectly workable, if you don’t want independance…..

I thought this was interesting from Standard and Poor’s (from the BBC)

Standard and Poor’s, in its assessment on independence, said there were benefits for Scotland going it alone, but raised concern it may begin life having to cope with issues like comparatively high levels of public debt, sensitivity to oil prices and “potentially limited” monetary flexibility.

The agency added: “On the other hand, if this were to happen, it could bring benefits in terms of reducing the size of the Scottish economy’s external balance sheet, normalizing the size of its financial sector, and reducing contingent liabilities for the state.

“In short, the challenge for Scotland to go it alone would be significant, but not unsurpassable.”

Someone else who seems to agree that iS is workable BUT that the ballance sheet might not be as rosey (certainly in the short term) as being portrayed by AS.

Someone else who seems to agree that iS is workable BUT that the ballance sheet might not be as rosey (certainly in the short term) as being portrayed by AS.

And that’s the whole point – no one doubts that Scotland could make it (eventually) but AS and mob are being hugely deceitful by painting independence as some sort of rosy utopia, when in reality it will be a hard fought battle that will destroy the stability and current financial credibility of Scotland for a good few years, and throw up just as many new problems as those solved by going independent in the first place.

The point really is that Standard Life back plans for a currency union.

Should someone tell Osborne?

And what would you rather he said? He’s playing up the positives like anyone who is trying to sell an idea. Complaining that a political campaign isnt the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth is only going to get you laughed at. I think most people, including the nationalists accept that everything isnt going to mega straight forward and there will be compromises and somethings will need to be reworked, but that’s the price of such a massive upheaval.

For rUK it’s technically workable, but the risks associated with it, make it completely unacceptable.

For iS it’s perectly workable, if you don’t want independance…..

I don’t but the argument that its unworkable for rUK at all. Scotland would need to agree to a very strict set of controls and I reckon most of the risk would be dealt with. It could be that they would be so tight that iScotland would never agree to them (probably less control than they have now), but saying that any all options aren’t workable surely cant be true.

bencooper – Member

The point really is that Standard Life back plans for a currency union.

Should someone tell Osborne?

Yes, and so does Osborne – as long as Scotland remains part of the UK. Because that’s the only way the moneytary union works for ALL parties not just iS

It could be that they would be so tight that iScotland would never agree to them (probably less control than they have now), but saying that any all options aren’t workable surely cant be true.

Exactly, so therefore, for the parties involved the option isn’t workable.

And just as importantly that isn’t the INDEPENDANCE AS is trying to sell.

And just as importantly that isn’t the INDEPENDANCE AS is trying to sell.

Independence*

He’s stated quite a few times that he’s willing to negotiate, you never know something could be worked out.

Please excuse the typo ! 😳

The whole point of negotiation is that you can say no.

they cannot say no to scotland leaving the Union – not sure what your point is here tbh- and they cannot realistically say no to a negotiation.

Bit like me saying ‘sell me you house for a £1’ and when you say ‘no’ I reply ‘that’s not fair, you’re refusing to negotiate’

Again not getting your point as it is nothing like that it is like me saying I have agreed to sell my house, if enough folk vote for this, but i wont negotiate a price till after they vote….the cake analogies were better IMHO

Would that [ who to blame]not be AS and the Yes campaign who want to change the status quo?

Well one could equally blame CMD for agreeing to a vote 😉

Interesting angle and you have a point however this is about the uncertainty of what will happen if they vote yes. The fact this is unknown is not his fault as one side wont talk

As noted its hardly news [ I cannot fathom why a number of you loathe him for this tbh*] to say Politician presents plan in best light to persuade electorate to vote for plan.

* no one doubts that Scotland could make it (eventually) but AS and mob
It does not move the debate ion to just keep using language that shows your contempt for AS we have all realise dwho these people are and how impartial they are on anythign he does

Yes campaign > SNP > Alex Salmond

It’s a common tactic to make out that independence is Salmond’s pet project, but it really isn’t. For example Tommy Sheridan is far from being a SNP fan:

There’s the Greens, the SSP, non-political independence groups like National Collective and Radical Independence, independence groups within the main political parties, unions etc.

Well one could equally blame CMD for agreeing to a vote

Have no fear, I do, the man’s a complete muppet, bit like Blair before who I also have a major problem with for setting the whole devolution train in motion and selling the idea to voters that the answer to a better society is a reorganisation of the deck chairs, more politicians and more money spent on the political institutions as a way of avoiding the pressing need to deal with real social and economic issues.

My biggest concern with this whole ridiculous situation is how much it’s all going to cost and the reality that even if Scotland does become independent the cost in monetary and parliamentary time it is going to swallowing up could have been spent much more productively on services and infrastructure on both sides of the border. The whole thing is a bit like a divorce, the only real winners will be the lawyers and everyone else will come out of it feeling fleeced and let down.

Again not getting your point as it is nothing like that it is like me saying I have agreed to sell my house, if enough folk vote for this, but i wont negotiate a price till after they vote

You seem to be forgetting that rUK hasn’t agreed to a currency union. So it’s exactly like my analogy.

All that’s been agreed is a vote on Scotland becoming a separate country (in principle). Independent countries normally either sort out their own affairs eg currency, fiscal policy, or join a union such as the EU which would require both currency AND fiscal union.

The responsibility rests with iS to come up a viable plan which all parties can accept and rUK has every right to say ‘sorry you can’t have a currency union without full fiscal union’. It’s not like they’re aren’t plenty of other alternatives.

It appears Standard Life are being misreported – who’da thunk it?

http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/standard-life-deserve-common-sense-discussions/

It appears Standard Life are being misreported – who’da thunk it?

I think the bit you need to appreciate is that the financial sector is Scotland will shrink, unless there is fiscal union, as one of the other contrubutors posted

Standard and Poor’s, in its assessment on independence, said there were benefits for Scotland going it alone, but raised concern it may begin life having to cope with issues like comparatively high levels of public debt, sensitivity to oil prices and “potentially limited” monetary flexibility.

The agency added: “On the other hand, if this were to happen, it could bring benefits in terms of reducing the size of the Scottish economy’s external balance sheet, normalizing the size of its financial sector, and reducing contingent liabilities for the state.
[/quote]

The website you quoted from has a Nationalist agenda

Tommy Sheridan! Ben I think you’ve just blown your argument good and proper there…

Tommy Sheridan! Ben I think you’ve just blown your argument good and proper there…

I thought it was a good example of how its a very varied cross section of political views in favour, from **** like Sheridan, to the Labour for Yes movement its not just one person or party.

The website you quoted from has a Nationalist agenda

I take everything from BFS with a pinch of salt as it’s a pro Yes business group, but it does show how you can spin everything. A headline shouting “Standard Life Plans for the Future” isn’t going to work is it.

For example Tommy Sheridan is far from being a SNP fan:

Ben – Are you taking the piss? He’s a convicted criminal!FFS!

Why do you keep shooting yourself in the foot?

Tommy Sheridan – haha, hasn’t he been in and out of prison a couple of times, and didn’t he appear on Celebrity Big Brother (kind of like prison and a surefire way of loosing all self respect in my book)?

Again not getting your point as it is nothing like that it is like me saying I have agreed to sell my house, if enough folk vote for this, but i wont negotiate a price till after they vote

Isn’t that how houses normally sell, i.e. you decide to move – then once you’ve made the decision to move, you put your house up for sale and negotiate a price and terms with the vendor?

The vote for independence is simple – the question is: Should Scotland be an independent country?

It is not Should Scotland keep the pound, should Scotland keep the oil, or should Scotland remain in the EU etc.

To compare with the housing analogy, what Alex Salmond seems to be doing, and people on here is arguing about who should keep the carpets, do fixtures and fittings come with the sale, can the previous owner still park on the new owners driveway, will the new owners be invited round for coffee mornings with the neighbours etc. before the decision whether to move house or not has been taken in the first place by the vendors.

Crazy!

The website you quoted from has a Nationalist agenda

As compared to the BBC, Guardian and other mainstream media who have a Unionist agenda. It’s called balance 😉

Ben – Are you taking the piss? He’s a convicted criminal!FFS!

So what? He’s also a very good public speaker, and his conviction doesn’t alter the facts of what he’s saying.

In other news, Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would have a AAA credit rating.

Still, what do they know?

it is still a poor analogy

Isn’t that how houses normally sell, i.e. you decide to move – then once you’ve made the decision to move, you put your house up for sale and negotiate a price and terms with the vendor?

you agree to sell in general then you negotiate a price with an actual vendor – in this case they are expected to agree to buy and then sit down and discuss price.

Crazy!

Indeed it is but it is not AS fault as it was rUK who rtuled out negotiations hence the vite is a leap in the dark.

We are debating over which politicians and which financial institutions judgements we believe and trust. Its none of them isnt it- though sadly it seems to be the ones who say what i want to hear

It is politics anything could happen

bencooper – Member
In other news, Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would have a AAA credit rating.
Still, what do they know?

Super stoked to know that an independent Scotland can immediately get up to its tits in debt!

In other news, Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would have a AAA credit rating.

Still, what do they know?

According to the Financial Times Standard & Poor say an independent Scotland would struggle have a AAA credit rating. And I assume the FT know what they’re talking about.

S&P warns Scotland would struggle to match UK credit rating

Quote :

“Scotland would struggle to match the UK’s AAA credit rating with Standard & Poor’s if it failed to negotiate a currency union with London or the eurozone, the credit rating agency warned on Thursday”.

Still, the credit agencies gave Lehman Brothers AAA rating minutes before Lehman Brothers collapsed triggering the greatest banking crises since the 1930’s.

So what do the credit agencies know ?

Standard & Poor’s publication today: “Key Considerations For Rating An Independent Scotland”, includes the following assessment:

Page 3: The Scottish economy is rich and relatively diversified, with 2014 per capita GDP estimated to be US$47,369 (based on the Scottish government’s estimates, which include Scotland’s geographic share of North Sea output, abbreviated as Scotland (Geographical) in the table above).

Scottish wealth levels are comparable to that of the U.K. (‘AAA’), Germany (‘AAA’), Ireland (‘BBB+’), and New Zealand (‘AA-‘).

Even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment. Higher GDP per-capita, in our view, gives a country a broader potential tax and funding base to draw from, which supports creditworthiness.

^^^^ assuming the economic model remains the same after independence. What happen if the finance sector move south???

“At the same time, Scotland’s external position in terms of liquidity and investment could be subject to volatility should banks leave.

“On the other hand, if this were to happen, it could bring benefits in terms of reducing the size of the Scottish economy’s external balance sheet, normalizing the size of its financial sector, and reducing contingent liabilities for the state.

http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/referendum/8806-credit-agency-confirms-indy-scotland-set-for-triple-a-credit-rating

It’d be nice for a link from a non biased website once in a while.

Junkyard: Indeed it is but it is not AS fault as it was UK who ruled out negotiations hence the vote is a leap in the dark.

Fixed your typos, including the “r” you mistakenly put before UK.

Maybe AS should have let Sturgeon know that he wanted to pre-negotiate, From “Scotland’s Future: from the Referendum to Independence and a Written Constitution”;

Following a vote for independence in 2014, agreements will be reached between the Scottish and UK Governments, in the spirit of the Agreement, setting the parameters for Scotland’s transition to independence.

My bold for emphasis 😉

We don’t care about your triple a rating we want our evenings back.
We demand freedom from Scottish time tyranny.
All it needed was one dissenting Scot to stop us having light evenings in the last vote.
Next time the vote will damn well pass.

assuming the economic model remains the same after independence. What happen if the finance sector move south?

Probably good as it rebalances the economy away form a reliance on banking that is 5 x GDP currently so they are less exposed to risk

this was an “industry/finance” bod speaking on Radio 4

EDIT: I am confused as to why you think publishing a document from the UK government which states that they wont pre negotiate disproves my point that it is not AS fault but theirs. It supports my view that it is not his fault.

*We do not have the rUK yet but its fair to use this IMHO when stating the current govts position but we could debate it. I dont think it is that crucial tbh,

Indeed it is but it is not AS fault as it was rUK who rtuled out negotiations hence the vite is a leap in the dark.

Yes, you could say it’s rUK’s fault for not being prepared to accept a proposal which is not in their best interests, or alternately you could say that it is iS’s fault for not offering a mutually agreeable proposal…

Eg I work oppposite a Bentley dealership, I could pop in and offer than £7.50 for one of their cars, after all they’re for sale and everyone knows you can haggle a bit on list price….

Either way, AS has done iS a big disservice by not having a Plan B and not having even thought through whether Plan A might be mutually acceptable. What’s even more sad is that it’s not as if it isn’t a well understood problem eg membership of the Euro requires fiscal union as a pre-requiste for currency union.

It’d be nice for a link from a non biased website once in a while.

Good luck finding one. Or do you mean a website biased in the direction you prefer?

Again they have refused to negotiate before hand
The analogy would be to agree to buy the Bentley and then negotiate afterwards. This is clearly what the electorate are being asked to do.
Its not a case of refusing an offer they have refused to discuss but asked you to decide anyway.

Do you think rUK has no Plan B and would you like to level that criticism at them? Both sides are as guilty of that charge.

Its public hardball [ both sides] with the resulting outcome via negotiations being unknown and nothing but our speculation.
so which way will you vote then even though you do not really know what you will get.

EDIT: I am confused as to why you think publishing a document from the UK government which states that they wont pre negotiate disproves my point that it is not AS fault but theirs. It supports my view that it is not his fault.

I’m more confused why you think Sturgeon would be writing a document for the UK government! Just to be 100% clear, “Scotland’s Future: from the Referendum to Independence and a Written Constitution” is a Scottish government document.