Osbourne says no to currency union.

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  • Osbourne says no to currency union.
  • duckman
    Member

    Over to you THM…. 😀 Oops already done.

    ninfan
    Member

    I see Royal Bank of Scotland (80% owned by UK taxpayer) is announcing an 8 billion quid pre-tax loss today

    Tell me independence people, in the division of assets, do you get all of RBS or a just a population based share?

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    I only checked because I thought it was highly improbable that Standard Life, or any other major business for that matter, would have been bothered about Scotland having devolved power

    It’s got nothing to do with devolved power, it’s a half baked economic plan that has them concerned. AS’s ‘yes we can’ mantra may play well with the electorate, but the finance industry and business in general like to see a lot more rigour around these things.

    Just saying ‘look, everyone else says it won’t work, but trust me I’ll figure it all out after you vote yes, isn’t exactly what you’d call a detailed proposal’.

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
    Subscriber

    It’s got nothing to do with devolved power, it’s a half baked economic plan that has them concerned. AS’s ‘yes we can’ mantra may play well with the electorate, but the finance industry and business in general like to see a lot more rigour around these things.

    +1

    And from experience you never present half-baked proposal to the likes of Standard Life. They see through you immediately and chew you up appropriately if you try to BS them. Ditto the other Edinburgh fund managers.

    whatnobeer
    Member

    Tell me independence people, in the division of assets, do you get all of RBS or a just a population based share?

    I’d assume that the shares would be split on a population basis, but as with anything post vote you can never be sure. Things would be traded and swapped left right and centre.

    slackalice
    Member

    I rather like the prospect of the proposed 3 year trial to synchronise UK time with Europe.

    Interesting time to put forward.

    UK clocks change trial to be considered

    rene59
    Member

    slackalice that article is over three years old. Read that this morning, seems to be a lot of old articles on BBC website just now for some reason.

    slackalice
    Member

    Beg your pardon! Thanks Rene 🙂

    As you were.

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
    Subscriber

    What happens to the banks depends on their legal status (branch versus subsidiary) and their place of registration. The main impact will be (1) who regulates them and (2) who will get their taxes. We know what is happening with BOS and TSB, RBS is much more complicated due to its current more complex structure. Perhaps their main shareholder should have a say!?!?

    But if you are a financial services company faced with external bondholders and shareholders you have to be very brave to locate in a country that has no plans for an independent regulator and thinks that a foreign country can do this job for them.

    La, la, la…..forget Mirrlees and Stiglitz, AS needs the Brothers Grimm.

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    Tell me independence people, in the division of assets, do you get all of RBS or a just a population based share?

    All very academic. Judging by AS’s current form, I think he’s blown any chance of a Yes vote this September. He won’t get anyone in the finance sector backing his proposals.

    Premier Icon zippykona
    Subscriber

    I would like Scotland to stay but if we get rid of the dark evenings its a fair swap.

    slackalice
    Member

    😀 @ zippykona!

    robdixon
    Member

    Maybe we need to start listing the benefits of an Independent Scotland to rUK?

    1. We can extend summer time year round – less accidents, more time for exercise in daylight, and over time a happier and healthier population
    2. Some large companies will follow Standard Life and move their corporate entities and staff from the North to the South – a bigger share of corporation tax / employment related taxes will come in to rUK coffers
    3. Reduced liabilities on pensions and public spending (an issue as Scotland’s population ages and oil runs out)
    4. Voting in the rUK becomes less distorted by the vote north of the border without having to establish a parliament for England
    5. Cheaper products from the North as Scotland devalues its own currency to try and survive economically
    6. When Scotland goes bust we can buy it back on the cheap without any of the liabilities

    anything else?

    Premier Icon bigjim
    Subscriber

    Some large companies will follow Standard Life and move their corporate entities and staff from the North to the South – a bigger share of corporation tax / employment related taxes will come in to rUK coffers

    I think a lot would, the company I work for said they would probably have to leave scotland too.

    bencooper
    Member

    He won’t get anyone in the finance sector backing his proposals.

    Whereas quite a few other businesspeople, including No supporters, are getting pretty worried about what would happen after a No vote. The lack of certainty over Barnett, whether there will be devo max or a pull-back of powers to Westminster, etc.

    Yes have published a white paper, people are asking where the No white paper is.

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    Maybe we need to start listing the benefits of an Independent Scotland to rUK?

    I thought we didn’t get a say in the matter?

    konabunny
    Member

    Yes have published a white paper, people are asking where the No white paper is.

    Do you need a white paper for the status quo?

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    Yes have published a white paper, people are asking where the No white paper is.

    I was under the impression that if the motion doesn’t pass, which it won’t, the status quo remains?

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
    Subscriber

    Try the government website for starters – it’s all there.

    Of course it’s neither a manifesto nor a BoD, so the text tends to be more sober, slightly dull and free from hyperbole.

    whatnobeer
    Member

    Do you need a white paper for the status quo?

    It wont be the status quo though, will it. There’s already plans in motion to cut Scotland’s budget. And with the Tories in charge I can’t see things getting any better for anyone in Scotland in the near future. It would be great to see realistic and honest plans set out for Scotland’s future from BT, but more of the same isnt it.

    bencooper
    Member

    Do you need a white paper for the status quo?

    Why on earth do you think it’ll be left as the status quo? It’s already been said that Barnett will not last more than another couple of years, funding will change to a system “based on need” – which, as we all know, can be skewed massively. Westminster has already pulled some powers back from the Scottish parliament, and there’s nothing stopping them pulling back more. Then there’s the EU referendum.

    So I’d say after a No vote, the status quo would be the best we could hope for.

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    So I’d say after a No vote, the status quo would be the best we could hope for.

    Bit of a shame you have AS fronting the yes campaign then……

    Premier Icon sadmadalan
    Subscriber

    Even Barnett has said the the Barnett formula was never designed to be a long term plan and it needs to be revised. It was designed to address issues specific at the time.

    Premier Icon zippykona
    Subscriber

    Post independence can you imagine how much electricity will be saved just by london turning their lights on 1 hour later.
    We can rebrand ourselves as The Land Of The 10.30 Sun.

    bencooper
    Member

    On a more general point, this kind of “well, we’re taking our ball and going home” attitude from the financial services industry whenever they don’t get their own way is exactly why lots of people want independence.

    Why do we always have to bow to what the “market” and the “City” want? Sod ’em. Indian takeaways provide more employment than the banks, and they don’t demand billions in bail-outs when they screw up.

    As the head of Rolls Royce famously said, there’s only two ways of making money – you dig it out of the ground, or you add value by making something. Everything else is just moving it around. We need to stop thinking that financial and housing bubbles are a proper way to grow an economy.

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
    Subscriber

    Going home – we are talking about Scottish firms deciding on whether to re-locate in another country!!!! That’s an interesting way of putting it though.

    bencooper
    Member

    It’s an expression. I didn’t mean you to take it literally, I doubt Standard Life have a football.

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    Why do we always have to bow to what the “market” and the “City” want? Sod ’em. Indian takeaways provide more employment than the banks, and they don’t demand billions in bail-outs when they screw up.

    That all depends how you intend to develop your economy. If you want to use manufacturing then you need to compete with China etc on costs, which means low wages.

    If you want a high standard of living then you need to develop high value add industries, where the 3rd world can’t just undercut you on price, or exploit natural resources (again hard to undercut geothermal etc).

    I doubt basing an economy on Indian Takeaways will do much for your balance of payments…..

    bencooper
    Member

    If you want to use manufacturing then you need to compete with China etc on costs, which means low wages.

    Depends on the kind of manufacturing, and China won’t be a low-wage economy for long – look at the companies who are moving production back to the UK. Cotic, for instance.

    or exploit natural resources (again hard to undercut geothermal etc)

    Geothermal energy is a big thing in the UK? We’ve got fantastic prospects for wind, wave and tidal energy once the oil runs out.

    konabunny
    Member

    On a more general point, this kind of “well, we’re taking our ball and going home” attitude from the financial services industry whenever they don’t get their own way is exactly why lots of people want independence.

    This is the point when Scotland steps outside global capitalism is it?

    gordimhor
    Member

    sadmadalan – Member
    Even Barnett has said the the Barnett formula was never designed to be a long term plan and it needs to be revised. It was designed to address issues specific at the time.

    Many of those issues are still around. Low pay, poor health, etc. We even have foodbanks running out of food.

    bencooper
    Member

    This is the point when Scotland steps outside global capitalism is it?

    Why does shifting the economy – and by implication the whole country – away from a slavish devotion to the banks mean turning our backs on capitalism?

    Most countries manage fine with a much smaller financial services industry – where financial services means what it says, providing financial services to businesses and individuals. Instead of what we’ve got, banks who take silly risks and lose bollions in bubbles and speculation, secure in the knowledge that the taxpayer will bail them out because they’re too big to fail.

    The banks are parasitic on the rest of the economy, providing no added value to society.

    rebel12
    Member

    We’ve got fantastic prospects for wind, wave and tidal energy once the oil runs out.

    True, but where will the colossal levels of funding come from to develop those resources and infrastructure?

    With Standard Life being the first of I suspect many large companies that will up sticks for the UK if a YES vote happens, then there will be even less money in an independent Scotland than we thought before.

    These companies will have to move and I don’t blame them – the directors of these companies are obliged to act in the best interests of the business and it’s shareholders. To protect the business they need to operate in a proven country with a safe and stable currency, and in a country that’s part of the EU (all of which Scotland cannot give them).

    Thinking about it, Scottish independence could be a perfect way to regenerate the less affluent parts of the NE of England. Large firms relocating there from Edinburgh and Glasgow would still be close enough to the border to retain some of their Scottish workforce whilst retaining all of the benefits of remaining in the UK.

    I wonder what Alex Salmond will make of the Standard Life announcement? Will he try to pull the rug over the Scottish electorates eyes again and dismiss it as simply more bluff, bullying and threats? Or will he actually wake up and smell the coffee, and deal with the increasing unfavorable home truths that are now staring him square in the face?

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
    Subscriber

    Ben, may I respectfully point out that we have just endured a global financial crisis during which governments, companies and individuals around the world took on excessive levels of debt and leverage. None of this was/is unique to the UK although we do have considerable expertise here. 😉

    Finance is a critical aspect of any economy and a particularly important part of Scotlands with a long and honourable history, sadly spoilt by the hubris of AS’s buddy Fred and others. Yes, it needs to shrink as does leverage, but taking away the foundations on which a healthy financial system works and proposing the absurd idea of a system without regulation (the current plan c) is extreme folly. Highly appropriate for the brothers Grimm and the BoD, but not for sensible debate.

    piemonster
    Member

    Ben, are you suggesting a reduction in the total size on the financial industry in Scotland.

    Or a reduction in its size relative to the overall economy?

    Junkyard
    Member

    He is making a very valid point that major uncertainties remain over key factors that affect his business including currency how a monetary system would work and regulation. He also makes a more tactical and direct point about how AS proposes to tax savings and pensions.

    Your bias/hatred/dislike leads you to make false conclusions
    You can criticise AS for his spin and BS but the fact we do not know cannot and should not be levelled at him. It is the NO votes refusal to negotiate that causes this. Oddly they are prepared to say, when it harms the yes campaign, what they wont to. Do you admire their political ethics? Far better than AS?

    So if you run SL or Aberdeeen or Bailiie Gifford etc you face the prospect of an untested regulatory regime, uncertainty over currency systems and the prospect of new taxes on your core products, what would you do?

    be cross at those who caused the uncertainty and make plans for lots of eventualities?

    Its just folk repeating themself I go for over 100 pages maybee 200 before the vote
    Ben will stay be Yes and THM will still hate AS

    Premier Icon footflaps
    Subscriber

    It is the NO votes refusal to negotiate that causes this

    The whole point of negotiation is that you can say no.

    Bit like me saying ‘sell me you house for a £1’ and when you say ‘no’ I reply ‘that’s not fair, you’re refusing to negotiate’….

    Premier Icon stumpyjon
    Subscriber

    be cross at those who caused the uncertainty and make plans for lots of eventualities?

    Would that not be AS and the Yes campaign who want to change the status quo?

    You can criticise AS for his spin and BS but the fact we do not know cannot and should not be levelled at him.

    yes it can, how much negotiation has he entered into to substantiate his book of dreams (not saying Westminster would engage though). Whether AS and the Yes campaign like it or not they aren’t really in control of much other than promoting a Yes vote, they are blithely saying Scotland will be better of independent but it’s clear they can’t be independent without agreement from other interests, who he hasn’t gotten onboard with his vision for Scotland. In fact he seems to be pretty good at ignoring what the EU & BoE are saying, not an ideal way to get the institutions holding the whip hand to come around.

    winston_dog
    Member

    look at the companies who are moving production back to the UK. Cotic, for instance

    Ben – You make some good arguments at time then sometimes you really seem to miss the point.

    How many people are employed by Cotic? 10? 20? It’s a small scale high specialist manufacturer that sells £2000+ mtbs! It’s not exactly Trek is it?

    b r
    Member

    I think a lot would, the company I work for said they would probably have to leave scotland too.

    Unless it was cheaper to operate in Scotland and/or taxation was lower – then they’d be saying something different.

    Or are they saying this to make sure ‘sweeteners’ are offered?

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