Cameron kicks EU in the nuts – right decision?

Ed Balls is being rather quiet on this for a reason. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some leadership moves before too long.

From personal experience, Ed Balls is incredibly intelligent and a tough negotiator.

But in any case, the #2 of the opposition never has an incentive to get really stuck in. If the govt really gets it right, it makes #1 look good. If the govt messes it up, the #1 gets the credit. Better if PM calls an election, wins, means #1 gets the nudge for losing the election and is replaced by #2, then PM **** it all up, meaning #2 (now #1) gets elected.

There is a split in Labour over teh EU – I suspect staying quiet and non controversial is a good move

id say its more likely that labour are wary of little englanders and dont wont dail fail/murdoch papers/torygraph on their arses

That as well

martinhutch – Member
There must be a little voice in Cameron’s head urging him to call an election in the next few months. What he’s done in Europe may be popular with his friends in the city, but it’s even more popular in large swathes of the country.
For all the desire to ‘bring down the coalition’, with unelectable Ed hunching over the reins, and the LibDems utterly destroyed in terms of electoral credibility, Labour should be careful what it wishes for.

The date of the next General Election at 7 May 2015. There are also two ways in which an election could be triggered before the end of the five-year term:

1) if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is found
2) if a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of the House or without division

Unlikely we’re going to see either of those two scenarios playing out as the LibDems know it would be electoral suicide.

but more likely that there is a split in the party, as there is a split in the country, in the EU, it seems that everywhere there is a near 50:50 split over the EU.

I dont think one party will be any differend from the rest of the country.

If the govt really gets it right, it makes #1 look good.

Buggeration.

I meant, of course, it makes the #1 look BAD.

TandemJeremy – Member
Teamhurtmoe – you claim to be pro europe – but actually you don’t want the EU that we have. Well thats tough – you either play by the rules or you don’t play. You cannot cherry pick the bits you want and not have to have the bits you don’t.

TJ – you are brilliant, bloody brilliant. Peter Cooke in his hey-day wouldn’t have used such delicious irony. It has taken me months to realise what your internet purpose it. Today, I have found the answer!! You are a master at it.

But you are completely correct – I certainly don’t want the EU we have. It is a structural disaster that is failing everyone. I would like to see a Europe that works. It gives me no pleasure to watch this catastrophe unfold.

Kona – I think you are correct with Balls Up, but at times he does his best to hide how intelligent his academic record suggests he is. Well Oxford and the Oxford Conservative Association must have rubbed off on him. He is being the most sensible of all – keep quiet, keep your head down and wait for the correct moment to strike. Watch your back Wallace, its not your brother you need to watch, its the evil duo!!

JY – I was joshing about the gov/less public sector!! Excuse me, I still shoudn’t be putting words into your mouth (even in jest)!!

The labour party aren’t saying anything because Wet Ed has established a series of focus groups in key marginal constituencies, and policy forums amongst fleetingly fashionable think-tanks. These are due to report back around June next year. He’ll know what he’s meant to think then. Once they’ve told him. Oh… and another focus group has run through the conclusions. Obviously. And if no-one in the press office has any objections*

* This of course depends on there being no major developments on the issue during that time. In which case some fresh focus groups and policy forums will be established

Ah yes Druidh – had forgotten about the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Cam may be wishing he’d not bothered with that now…

does it trump the royal perogative as the crown calls elections and the crown asks someone to form a government – surely we have a constitutional expert on here to answer this one

Teamhurtmore – actually for a great many folk this EU works well. You cannot have a single market without safeguards such as the social chapter or else you get a race to the bottom.

its stupid to pretend that we can have a the single market and nothing else – this is not on offer.

We either join in, play by the rules and try to influence things in the way we want or we snipe from he sidelines.

The EU you want – a playground for unfettered capitalism is not going to happen.

TJ – I have not argued against any specific safeguards nor have I (ever) argued for unfettered capitalism (although I enjoy reading how often that is assumed!!). But the current structure is economically inept and politically dishonest, so I will continue to argue strongly against it, while remaining pro-Europe.

But it is extremely naive for anyone to pretend that the EU plays by the rules. Every leader around that table was focused on national interest. Europe comes second – after all Europe doesn’t vote for them, domestic audiences do. And the rules are not synonymous with deficits – ask the Germans, they ignored those rules and others didn’t. And who is in crisis now?

Teamhurtmore – I thought you were against the social chapter?

Are they the EU regulations involved when striking up conversations with people at the bar?

The only thing I have categorically stated TJ is that I am anti a single currency. And that is simply from my training as an economist.

teamhurtmore – Member

Ask yourself why The Guardian is quoting the Tories overtaking Labour in the polls

You really need to deal with your obsession with the Guardian newspaper’s opinion/comment teamhurtmore. Just because the Guardian says something doesn’t mean that everyone should stop what they’re doing and listen. In fact I find ignoring the Guardian’s editorial policy works rather well.

And I find it unbelievable how some Tory voters appear to be wetting themselves with excitement at the sight of the first opinion poll since last year which gives the Tories a lead ….. a 2% lead ffs.

One opinion poll does not signal a change in the game plan, and it betrays just how desperate you are if you think it does. The tracker poll/poll of polls has had Labour well ahead of the Tories ever since the general election.

Ask yourself why the government did not enjoy the traditional “honeymoon period” which all governments can rightly expect to have after a general election.

And as for all the excitement generated because Cameron has heroically made a stand for Britain – he has done no such thing. He has simply committed the UK to a European Union but with less influence. Big **** deal.

Even the halfwit Nigel Farage of UKIP recognises the futility of pointless political posturing……you would expect him to be cheering Cameron instead of claiming that we are now in a worse position.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16111356

TBF, Farage wants to paint it as bad as possible in order to help persuade folk it’s better to leave.

Ernie – where is the smiley? Otherwise your opening gambit is a FAIL. If you go back to the post you are quoting from, you will see that I quoted three newspapers – FT (broadly pro-Europe), The Guardian (pro-Europe) and the DT (euro sceptic). So I went for a range of papers to show that a specific point made by another poster was in fact unsupportable. So please don’t paint me as merely a Guardian reader! Ditto, the opinion poll stuff. Others post on here that the stance taken by DC was (almost universally) unpopular and yet that simply is not shown up in the specific polls (Times) or the general opinion polls. So it is perfectly fair to point that out.

Even the halfwit Nigel Farage of UKIP recognises the futility of pointless political posturing

Time to create a book for these lines – that is another brilliant one!!!

So please don’t paint me as merely a Guardian reader!

You are clearly not merely a Guardian reader. But you subscribe to this commonly held nonsensical perception that the Guardian is some sort of left-wing bible, and that by quoting the Guardian you are offering the “left-wing” alternative argument.

The Guardian is a Tony Blair-loving/LibDem-loving rag for the self-gratification of the waffling bleeding-heart middle-classes. It is the holy water which blesses and consecrates the heart-burnings of the after-dinner activist/pontificator. It’s one and overwhelming redeeming quality is that it is packed with news. Which is why I read it it 🙂

Ernie – well he has predominately been arguing with TJ and it is TJ’s political bible and I would even have the temerity to suggest that you might have said this in the past.

Ok Ernie, I will add Socialist Worker to my bookmarks (plus any other suggestions??). Interestingly today they say:

The robber barons of Europe have fallen out—but their rows are an expression of a much deeper crisis. They face the prospect of economic catastrophe. Even the powerful economies of France and Germany are now threatened with credit rating downgrades. This has caused panic across the ruling elite. Politicians have imposed unelected governments on Italy and Greece. But the strikes there show that people won’t take austerity lying down. “Fiscal unity”—the drive to centralise the imposition of austerity across Europe—is the latest attempt to make ordinary people pay for a crisis caused by bankers.

Funnily enough that ties in with my “predictions”/ guesses as to what might happen in the future. It will be social factors that may well bring this all to a head. The SW talks for the ordinary people, but the reality is that it will also include the middle classes in the European periphery.

Interesting to see Merkel losing one of her coalition partners today!

p.s. I actually used the Guardian today because I perceive it as pro-European rather than left-wing but ho hum! Is the Labour Party left wing? Interesting that EM didn’t respond to DC’s jibe when he accused him of being left wing recently. Why was that, I wonder?

Ok Ernie, I will add Socialist Worker to my bookmarks (plus any other suggestions??).

Yeah right, there’s no need to be silly and go from the wishy-washy fence-sitting position of the Guardian straight over to an ultra-leftist instant revolution position.

You could have found a more mainstream left-wing perspective in the Morning Star, which like me is moderate, sensible, and pragmatic.

http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/113058

BTW did you notice the marxist quote which I cunningly shoehorned into my last post after a slight alteration to make it more topical ? 😀

Marx’s “holy water” – sorry I missed that, but nice quote. I will have to watch your posts with more vigor in future. Have you ever worked for MI5?

Rather worryingly I did spend 5-10 mins browsing the SW website, but didn’t add it to my bookmark!! 😉

Ernie – don’t you just love the last few para’s of the article on the link. So if you posted that on here, how many pages? Would it make 20? Zulu vs TJ – ding, ding!!!

Ernie – don’t you just love the last few para’s of the article on the link.

Actually no I didn’t. I thought it was rather puerile and pointless as it was not really directly linked to the leader/comment. Indeed I was surprised that it was included as it’s not typical of the Morning Star’s editorials, which I invariably find excellent and straight to the point. You can make the case against the EU without necessarily making the case for socialism – stick to the topic I would say. And leave the case for socialism to another discussion. I actually hesitated posting the link because of the last paragraph.

Agree Ernie – I forgot to add the smiley to “don’t you just love…” 😉

Looks like CMD hasn’t made the Euro isolationist faux pas that TJ is predicting.

From the Indy

Suggestions that David Cameron has left Britain isolated in Europe by deploying his veto were downplayed today by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who insisted the UK will continue to play an important role in the EU.

She’s also quoted in the Gruinad

[Britain] is a reliable partner for Europe not just in questions of foreign and security policy … [it] is also this partner in many other questions – in competitiveness, in the internal market, for trade, for climate protection,” she said.

Great at the moment sending more Sterling into my Spanish bank account 😆

Was interesting reading this link

Open Europe

This too is interesting

Britain Outside The EU

think it’s more a case of we’re not the bad guys, from Merkel, look how magnanimous we can be. come on in the water is fine 😀

She indicated she has not given up hope of eventual UK involvement in the new compact, telling the German Parliament that it remains open for all EU members to join and it should be merged with the official treaties as soon as possible.

think it’s more a case of we’re not the bad guys, from Merkel, look how magnanimous we can be. come on in the water is fine

and please save me from the French

Teh BBC – that bastion of socialism and europhilia reports

Euro crisis: Europe reacts with anger

European commentators have reacted with anger at Britain’s decision not to join a tax and budget pact to tackle the eurozone

Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, head of the Germany’s FDP group, part of the European Liberals, goes as far as to say it was “a mistake to let the British into the EU”.

German Christian Democrat MEP Elmar Brok, foreign policy spokesman for the centre-right in the European parliament, echoed his sentiment: “If you’re not ready to abide by the rules, you’d do better to keep your mouth shut.”

thats the grouping that the tories were in until Cameron took them out to stand alongside the polish far right opposition

“And this dirty game that the British are playing – wanting to stay with one foot in and one foot out of Europe – risks collapsing the entire system. London must be either in, or out. But they simply cannot sabotage everything.”

The country’s main financial daily, Il Sole 24 Ore, calls the move a “British bluff” which leaves the country isolated.

And plenty more quotes -make no mistake – the anger is real and the UK is isolated on the fringes like never before. the damage done is huge

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16114902

Germany wants Britian back in the ‘club’ so it doesnt have to foot the bill alone when its time for more bail-outs….which will happen shortly i’m sure.

Better to be on the outside of a crumbling economic experiment than locked into it.

Trying to harmonise economies as different as Germany and Greece was never going to work….but with the EU it always seems to be a hurried and immature numbers game, no real thought as to who is joining and what they offer, just an assumption that more members must be a good thing….even if they come to the EU with a crack pot economy.

I see Albania and Macedonia are being lined up as potential new members (seriously), anybody think they are bringing anything to the EU?….the reality is that countries like this want their place at the table for what they can get out of the EU….and the same will happen to them as seems to happen with all new member states, there will be a temporary boost to their economy during which they will spend more than they create and will be left with a debt for the wealthier countries to pay off….thats why Germany wants the UK back in.

The sooner they Euro is knocked on the head the better.

the same will happen to them as seems to happen with all new member states, there will be a temporary boost to their economy during which they will spend more than they create and will be left with a debt for the wealthier countries to pay off….thats why Germany wants the UK back in.

This is barking up the wrong tree.

Slovakia, Slovenia and Estonia are the only “new” EU members to be in the Eurozone.

At the end of 2010, the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP were recorded in Estonia (6.6%), Bulgaria (16.2%), Luxembourg (18.4%), Romania (30.8%), Slovenia (38.0%), Lithuania (38.2%), the Czech Republic (38.5%) and Sweden (39.8%). Fourteen Member States had government debt ratios higher than 60% of GDP in 2010: Greece (142.8%), Italy (119.0%), Belgium (96.8%), Ireland (96.2%), Portugal (93.0%), Germany (83.2%), France (81.7%), Hungary (80.2%), the United Kingdom (80.0%), Austria (72.3%), Malta (68.0%), the Netherlands (62.7%), Cyprus (60.8%) and Spain (60.1%).

and

Eurostat said the largest government deficits in percentage of GDP were recorded in Ireland (-32.4%), Greece (-10.5%), the United Kingdom (-10.4%), Spain (-9.2%), Portugal (-9.1%), Poland (-7.9%), Slovakia (-7.9%), Latvia (-7.7%), Lithuania (-7.1%) and France (-7.0%). The lowest deficits were recorded in Luxembourg (-1.7%), Finland (-2.5%) and Denmark (-2.7%). Estonia (0.1%) registered a slight government surplus in 2010 and Sweden (0.0%) was in balance.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022150.shtml

The Eurozone debt crisis is an “old” member problem, not a “new” member problem. PIIGS are all old members. The new members are neither big enough or feckless enough to cause the Euro systemic problems.

Neither are Eurozone countries paying off each others’ debt. They are restructuring it, true, but they’re not paying it off. The Greek state will pay off its debts (eventually).

TJ over the next few days anyone with access to the Internet will be able to find quotes to support their respective positions. So what? Well very little. There are two powerful forces at work – a long run project outlined yesterday by Merkel towards a full fiscal union (in which she hopes GB will play a part) which individuals can make their own minds up on and the short term economic, political AND social forces that threaten the break up of the current project. As sound as it is to outline LR strategic objectives, failure to address the lack of foundations will result in the house falling down in the meantime.

Instead of all the posturing debate should focus on two key questions:

1. Do populations desire full monetary and fiscal union with the implications that has for the national v pooled sovereignty debate?

2. Do populations support the full transfer of funds from surplus to deficit countries that such a plan requires. This is a crucial bit that remains out of the open debate but which the german and Dutch will find very hard to swallow

The rest is simply a side show to keep 24 hour news ( working) and markets (not working) happy. IMHO of course.

Teamhurtmore – the critical thing you ignore is that Camerons actions have made the situation worse in general ( by making solutions harder to find), have annoyed the rest of the EU so that they will bypass him in future and have not done what he claims it did.

This is no sideshow – this is absolutely critical for the future of the UK.

TJ, what has happened in my view is camerons mistake had highlighted the divisions between states a lot more, it may be that what is needed and what i think will happen is that the infighting between memeber states needs to come out in the open and the motives for different countries need to come out in the open, france for example calling for us giving up the rebate, because technically they pay for most of it.

I think a lot of open bickering is needed before it can calm down and get resolved with everyone knowing really how we feel about our neighbours.

have annoyed the rest of the EU so that they will bypass him in future

Here’s a quote for you, TJ

beyond doubt for me that Great Britain will in future continue to be an important partner in the European Union

I presume that whoever said that is far less significant than Graf Lambsdorff or Elmar Brok though.

TJ – you know you may be right about DC’s actions. Frankly I think all the major players made the situations worse. As I said before, a game of chicken with nobody jumping?? BUT, I think Sancho is also correct – the law of unintended consequences. By (being forced to stand) standing up to Sarkozy and Merkel, he may well raise the debate to the real issues. Indeed this is why Wallace is so uncomfortable at the moment and DC has had an easy-ish ride at home – Wallace cant answer the straight question – “would you have signed up?” – every time, this is ducked by the “being at the table argument” which is a red herring. If the real issues remain unresolved then the “being at the table on the titanic” analogy is fitting.

Sorry, but like all these summits, this was a sideshow (notice how many column inches and media time it is receiving now). There is an economic, political and social reality playing out in the mainstream and a series of fruitless summits playing out in parallel.

The EU will not by-pass Europe – they cannot afford to pass on the GB budget contributions. It will all be hot air and posturing – particularly by Sarkozy.

And with exquisite timing we’re treated to another one of the architects of the Euro covering himself in glory

quelle surprise!

So… incompetent AND corrupt. Yip. Glad we’re on board?