Brexit 2020+

After all, where there is a system, someone will game it

In the early 2010s Kent police were getting criminals to own up to unsolved crimes to improve their clear up rates.

Something good about brexit..

https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/farm-policy/defra-confirms-reductions-in-support-for-farmers

this is the same tories that said the increase in crime was nothing to do with losing 20 000 police officers?

Tories ignored flood advice

this is the same tories that said the increase in crime was nothing to do with losing 20 000 police officers?

No that was the other Tories apparently 🙂

Some thoughts on the Political Declaration

1.

— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) February 27, 2020

This means the daft posturing of the UK about casually breaking the the PD matter

Matter as much, if not more, than if the PD was "binding"

In effect: the UK is sending a signal of "don't trust us, insist on strict legal obligations"

8.

— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) February 27, 2020

And this signal is not just being sent to EU – the signal is now being broadcast to every nation in world

All the countries where, post-Brexit, UK may want to have "trade agreements"

UK may think it is saying to EU "screw you" but in fact it is telling the world "screw us"

9.

— David Allen Green (@davidallengreen) February 27, 2020

So no surprises from the announcement of the UK’s negotiating position. Looks like they can’t even be bothered to hang around until the end of the year before the massive rupture with the EU and plunging us into chaos.

UK says it will consider walking away from Brexit talks in June

Boris Johnson is asking the EU for a Canada-style trade deal but will consider whether to walk away from talks in June and prepare for an “orderly” exit from the transition period.

Setting out its negotiating mandate for EU talks, Downing Street said it wanted “regulatory freedom” from the EU and would not accept any role for the European court of justice (ECJ) in dispute resolution mechanisms.

A few years ago I never thought I’d see a UK government behave in such a casually reckless manner. Nowadays, given the nut-jobs at the wheel, I expect nothing else

pounds dropped nearly 1% on the release of the governments position

If you look at the governments demands its just pure cakism, that they know full-well the EU will never agree too.

It just confirms whats been depressingly obvious for some time, that they intend to crash us out with no deal, no matter what damage that will do to the economy

I assume that everyone else is assuming that it’ll be no deal, or a minimal deal to be built on later, slowly. How exactly anyone involved in the seafood industry (to pick a non-random example) is supposed to prepare for this eventuality, I have no idea.

Ladies and gentlemen… I may have found a positive to Brexit (if you squint hard enough, and don’t think about what it means for the private sector)…

Gove has just committed govt to recruiting and training 50000 customs officers within months

— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) February 27, 2020

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-brexit-withdrawal-trade-bill-eu-heathrow-labour-leadership-latest-a9362441.html

Boris Johnson is ready to walk away from trade talks with the EU ​if progress is not made by June – then prepare the UK for a no-deal scenario at the end of 2020, according to a government document published today.

The prime minister is also set to rip up a key part of the Brexit deal already agreed with Brussels. Mr Johnson is said to believe the Tory election win means he is no longer bound by the political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement.

[EDIT: – sorry, broadly the same story as linked above.]

There’s a blog version of the Twitter thread Klunk posted earlier, it has a preamble explanation and it’s a bit easier to read if anyone’s interested.

The moral hazard of the United Kingdom casually breaching the Political Declaration

Perfidious albion

But won’t recruiting and training 50,000 extra customs officers (which wouldn’t be required if it wasn’t for Brexshit) put a dent in the £350m extra per week for the NHS?

C’mon guys, it’ll be the unicorns next… don’t let me down.

Seeing as it looks like Joris Bohnson is now planning on renaging on the withdrawal agreement, then stomping out of negotiations, at what point do we officially become a rogue state?

Probably when you have nuclear weapons.

Luckily the UK ones are controlled (at least in part) by the US.

I’m beginning to suspect that some lies were told.

So the hard Brexit just becomes a little more likely … “Post-Brexit talks: UK prepared to walk away in June if no progress” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51650961

I can’t understand how government doesn’t understand that they’re about to make it super difficult for any UK business that trades with the EU. They’ll potentially have to work to a ‘GB Standard’ and an ‘EU Standard’ and face all the checks and scrutiny as a consequence.

Boris has set the tone with “f*** business”.

They do not, repeat, do not, care.

They’ll potentially have to work to a ‘GB Standard’ and an ‘EU Standard’ and face all the checks and scrutiny as a consequence.

It’s more likely that we’ll just work to one set of standards, set mostly by the EU, but still have to have twice the checks and scrutiny for no good reason other than UK English political willy waving, and making the UK market sweet for the USA to exploit without having to satisfy any standards but their own. The big exception is employment… rights will be eroded by new employer/employee relationships that have weaker and weaker protection in UK law, you can bet your job on that.

they’re about to make it super difficult for any UK business that trades with the EU

Deliberately tanking the pound to offset the tariffs and red tape.

Win, er, um, win….

If true this presumably means that the division of the court dealing with pharma patents will no longer be coming to London. Plus the treaty setting up the court has to be amended. https://t.co/cxezZ7Ln2Z

— Steve Peers (@StevePeers) February 27, 2020

Who needs International patents, enforceable across the continent and beyond, when you can have good ole British patents? Local patents for locals people.

Crazy, because you'd think that the government might have "invited contributions" before emarking on this journey.

I now understand from source, there will be NO IMPACT ASSESSMENTS… /2

— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 27, 2020

Of late, I have spent a lot of time talking to business groups – across all the sectors – and the groups, all with different issues, share one thing in common. A quiet, seething, livid rage. They fizz with frustration. It is quite remarkable to behold. /4

— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 27, 2020

Let's start with shipping, at random. It just came first. We need to protect value of trade with close partners, we are not convinced UK govt negotiatiors *recognises this reality".

Do I need to decode that statement? WILL YOU PEOPLE LISTEN TO US? /7 pic.twitter.com/TJ5VlaRqgj

— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 27, 2020

Go and read the whole thread… every sector is being screwed.

Government memo leaked to Huffington telling all government ministers that the words “Brexit” and “No deal” are banned.

I smell Dom Cum.

Poops – I thought that was generally accepted and understood albeit no hard evidence until Huffpo.
As for Dom Cum, that’s something I wouldn’t wish to smell.

Government memo leaked to Huffington telling all government ministers that the words “Brexit” and “No deal” are banned.

Theresa Villiers was taken apart by Emma Barnett on Five Live yesterday for continuing to refer to an ‘Australian Style’ trade deal. She was repeatedly told to stop referring to it as that, as it was clearly just ‘no deal’ with a different name and they should stop treating us all like idiots

But then, why would they? It seems to have worked pretty well so far.

There surely can’t be any doubt now that ‘no deal’ is the desired destination as far as this bunch of lunatics are concerned. They’re barely even pretending otherwise now. Looks like we’re all in for the full on Disaster Capitalism experience

will the corona virus trigger the next global recession at the same time Britain throws it self off the cliff with a no deal…..feels like a perfect storm brewing ….Investment money will dry up, Business go bust,, and no safety net left…

Am i seeing the worst or is this the likely outcome?

50,000 new customs staff won’t come cheap, especially as many will need to be vets for phytosanitary checks, immigrants the Tories will need lots of immigrants to help them administer all the red tape they’re creating, oh the lols!

So which will cost the UK more, coronovirus pandemic & the NHS at breaking point or Brexit? The 2 together seem like a perfect storm (speaking of which you can add the flooding to the list of plagues we’ve invited upon ourselves)

Am i seeing the worst or is this the likely outcome?

Its Disaster Capitalism. They need to create a crisis in order to use the resulting chaos to push through legislation that under normal circumstances they wouldn’t have a cat in hells chance of getting through parliament. They want to tear up existing EU-based legislation on workers rights, environmental standards, food hygeine standards and any regulation on finance and the predatory businesses owned by their mates. They will use the upcoming self-created financial shitstorm to do it, as well as putting the NHS up for sale and slashing the welfare state.

Expect a stony faced Joris Bohnson and his minions as they stand in front of TV cameras starting a lot of statements wit the words ‘we have no option but to….’ before announcing some huge piece of legislation that will take a sledgehammer to the status quo

Massively aiding them in this, hence the newly shortened timescale of walking away in June, is the fact that there isn’t an opposition party at the moment. In fact, you could argue that there hasn’t been for a good few years now

And, add in the trade war coming after Trump wins his second term… oh, and the diminishment of UK education, especially science and languages (see my post above)… and I wouldn’t want to be stuck in Little Britain… oh, hang on… damn.

#Brexit: New UNCTAD estimates show that the UK ?? risks losing up to 14% ($32 billion) of its exports to the EU ??. https://t.co/TwP38VfhS1 pic.twitter.com/krDpuwXPli

— UN Trade and Development (@UNCTAD) February 25, 2020

One of the punters at work gets the express. Headline today was ( I paraphrase)
” good old Boris threatens the EU with “no deal””

*bangs head on the floor*

Theresa Villiers was taken apart by Emma Barnett on Five Live yesterday for continuing to refer to an ‘Australian Style’ trade deal. She was repeatedly told to stop referring to it as that, as it was clearly just ‘no deal’ with a different name and they should stop treating us all like idiots

If only – if only – there’d been more of that the last few years. I hold the media largely to blame for not holding the bullshitters now in charge to account.

What is wrong with using the term no deal? @EmmaBarnett asks Conservative MP and prominent Brexiteer Theresa Villiers who repeatedly refuses to say it

?️"The phrase became loaded"

?Read more https://t.co/PDcqk1xVee pic.twitter.com/vgKO9k86wf

— BBC Radio 5 Live (@bbc5live) February 27, 2020

Was quite amusing, you could see her face express the words WTF

The new euphemism is “non negotiated outcome” I understand.

Something good about brexit..

Have you thought this through? Rocketing food costs, secondary rural economy collapse, dependance on foreign powers for imported food with unregulated intesive, dubvious chemicals and high carbon footprint. Best case corporate super-farm monopolies turning the contryside into factories, bulldozing the woods and hedgerows, monoculturing to maximise profits.

I guess not.

Hmmm, my work contract is coming to an end soon – might get one of these customs jobs! Wee Brexit bonus of pilfering illegal fags and booze, bringing bike parts and guitars into the country tax free and extra pennies by becoming an inside man for a crime gang a la The Departed!

Worth reading this thread about why in government this Vote Leave team could well be setting things up for the No Deal outcome they claimed was Project Fear back in 2016:

If a deal can be reached, which will not be easy. Independence 'in full' doesn't give the Govt much space for compromise. So a deal won't have that much of an economic gain (because the deal we're after is so unambitious) but will involve the Govt in a lot of political pain. /3

— David Gauke (@DavidGauke) February 29, 2020

Everything the Govt is doing is consistent with collapsing the talks. A lot of effort blaming the EU for making new and unreasonable demands, rebranding no deal ('Australia style deal'). Also, Govt's behaviour on the Northern Ireland Protocol undermines trust. /5

— David Gauke (@DavidGauke) February 29, 2020