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I'm basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.
You guys are basing yours on the assumption that there will be no deal.
Am I to be told that this isn’t a cost we can recoup
So, OK, two things here:
1) this sounds like a big number, but in economic terms it's buttons.
2) I said earlier on this thread that in my experience with conversations with leavers one of three things always happens when they're proven wrong: They don't reply and change the subject; they get angry and offensive; or they go quiet for a while before coming back with the same argument.
And you my little doggy friend very much fall into the first category. This is not having a discussion, this is you regurgitating ill-informed non sequitur after non sequitur. Which is a waste of both our time.
I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.
You’re basing your opinion on a deal when you have absolutely no idea what the implications of that deal may be?
Incredible.
I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.
You guys are basing yours on the assumption that there will be no deal.
Because at this moment in time "no deal" is what happens unless something changes between now and next year, it's the default action. And yes it might well change and we all desperately hope you're right. But betting the farm on it is up there with "thoughts and prayers" right now and patting yourself on the back for your cheery optimism doesn't change shit. Hope for the best, expect the worst.
What do you mean by "a deal" exactly anyway? There are a thousand agreements to potentially consider, there's no such thing as "a" deal. Do you mean a trade deal? Fine. What about ERASMUS? Open Skies? Galileo?
I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.
Ok....I'll bite and reply seeing as others appear to have the patience of the reincarnated baby jesus
If (and at our current level of negotiations i seriously doubt we will) we manage to scrape a deal together it will be vastly inferior to our current deal, not because the EU wish to punish us but being a block of 27 countries they have a duty to protect their own interests and members, they have zero obligation to furnish us with a "world beating trade deal" (tm-gove).
Whatever deal we get WILL be inferior to our current arrangement
Oh, and,
You never answered my question (on the back of yours) as to how your industry certifies that your products are safe and legitimate for international export. Care to have a crack at that?
What makes you think we will get a deal?
Given that to get a deal ( unless johnson capitulates completely) Johnsons red lines are incompatible with EU law and treaties.
If Johnson does capitulate he will last about 5 mins and the deal will be repudiated
Finally if we go WTO rules only ie no deal we are not allowed under those rules to treat any nation more favourably than the rest. thus if we allow EU imports in without tariffs we have to allow imports from everywhere without tariffs - hello american fake cheese
Dougie says he's in pharma?, is that "pharma" as in £6 per pill, two for £10 and a wrap of speed type pharma?
If it is he’s using far too much of his inventory for personal use.
Finally if we go WTO rules only ie no deal we are not allowed under those rules to treat any nation more favourably than the rest. thus if we allow EU imports in without tariffs we have to allow imports from everywhere without tariffs
This sort of takes a massive dump on your negotiating position in any trade deals,someone's dropped a bollock on this.
Pharma - where was the EUs medicines regulatory body - london - but its gone, we can no longer use it, we now have to make our own regulatory body which will cost us a lot more than 1/28 of the EU body
I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.
I'm not, all the costs I listed previously, are ones we have to pay regardless
That £13bn in customs costs would not be reduced if we get a deal
I think we'll get a deal, Johnson's one is particularly unambitious and offers only small increases
The same for his USA one (and Truss is rounding her numbers up to get 0.16% over 15 years)
Johnson will sacrifice fisheries to keep Nissan here but...
When Scotland votes to leave, a quick entry in the EU will see Sturgeon trying to woo Nissan 70 miles North & avoid all those extra costs & delays of our new customs regime (applies to Airbus, pharma, etc)
Johnson will have to promise BIG to get them to stay & that is only going to be possible if he can get an agreement on state aid, which is the other major sticking point for an EU deal
we now have to make our own regulatory body which will cost us a lot more than 1/28 of the EU body
Ours will be world beating thou 🙂
Aren’t you listening to anything we’re telling you? We become “other” overnight.
I sincerely hope he isn't because he is being told a load of rubbish.
which bits Mefty?
Awaits detailed rebuttal from mefty.....
In 2018 just under 80% of our non Eu trade was done under WTO terms so the position will be unchanged whatever happens. Likewise just under 80% of our remaining non Eu trade is done with countries who have agreed to roll over deal, which will implemented under the terms of the Trade Bill. We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.
And in your case TJ I have never seen you get anything right, I think you and Binners are performance artists.
So assuming we leave with no deal at the end of the year, how soon afterwards will we start to see the effects on the ground and what will these be?
Food and medicine shortages? Chaos at Dover? Masses of businesses going under and redundancies?
What are people going to notice and when?
We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.
Who said we won't be trading with the ROW?
No one said we couldn't trade. It will be more costly and awkward though.
No one said we couldn’t trade. It will be more costly and awkward though.
Not with over 90% non EU trade it won't, it will be on the same basis.
We continue to negotiate with the remaining countries so we will hardly be unable to trade with the rest of the world.
But no one said we couldny trade with ROW
The point is that non EU trade will have to rise by a large amount to compensate for extra costs of brexit & governments own figures don't comes close to that yet
Would you like me to fact check your “just under 80%” claim mefty?, 5 mins on google will give you the actual figures and it is nowhere near 80%.
Would you like me to fact check your “just under 80%” claim mefty?
knock yourself out.
The point is that non EU trade will have to rise by a large amount to compensate for extra costs of brexit & governments own figures don’t comes close to that yet
The post I quoted from was suggesting without all the EU agreements we would find it very difficult to trade with the rest of the world. This is simply not the case as the numbers I have put up show.
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm
for an explanation of WTO terms. NOte carefully the stuff on most favoured nation status. without trade agreements we HAVE to treat everyone equally
Mefty - when 40% of our trade is with the EU (IIRC) how can we be trading 80-% under WTO rules? We also operate under various EU trade deals for much of our non eu trade.
Or very simply put analysis showing just how disadvantageous WTO rules would be
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/wto-rules-explained-trade-tariffs-uk-after-brexit-agreement-391230
Mefty - it will be very difficult - read up on what WTO means. Useful links above
Mefty – when 40% of our trade is with the EU (IIRC) how can we be trading 80-% under WTO rules? We also operate under various EU trade deals for much of our non eu trade.
Even in the autumn of one's like it is not too late to acquire new skills.
Need to bush up on your maths? 120% of trade?
Mefty actually said 80% of our non-eu trade
Which is a way of saying ~40% of our trade
But TJ has a point, under no deal MFN rules means if we do impose tariffs on any EU goods mefty is wrong to say
so the position will be unchanged whatever happens
Nice one somafunk - that shows exactly how much bollox Mefty is spouting
I do love the fact that in meftys world we can have more than 100%
My numbers are all non EU trade so EU trade is not in the denominator.
squaredog - at the simplest level, any goods inc food, which are imported are likely to be more expensive and subject to delay at point of entry.
UK will become (even) less competitive so jobs/companies/business sectors will be under threat.
Financial services sector is major employer and significant economic contributor; as various posts ^^^ have stated, banks and others already have advanced plans to move (parts of) their businesses into European financial centres if/when circumstances dictate.
Job losses are inevitable - and they won't be small scale.
Unless johnson capitulates in some way the impacts will become visible from early 2021 and become progressively worse.
Here's a recent article about how few companies have prepared for no deal
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/18/no-deal-brexit-poorly-prepared-companies-coronavirus
@mefty - But the numbers you put up have no factual basis. You might as well say 120% of our trade is done on WTO rules.
My numbers are all non EU trade so EU trade is not in the denominator.
apologies - I did misread it
However your numbers are still wrong - clearly so.
And the reason UK has to build Farages Garage & all the extra customs infrastructure away from ports is to prevent the 50% of our trade with the EU causing snarl ups with the non EU half that enters/leaves via the same ports
Mefty actually said 80% of our non-eu trade
Precisely.
However your numbers are still wrong – clearly so.
Nope - you just need to do the arithmetic.
NOpe - yuou need to look at somafunks link
Yeah, it’s only about half our exports facing new hassle, expense and delays… what’s the worry, huh?
yuou need to look at somafunks link
I have
Which shows your numbers are wrong
So in total 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports happen with countries we have some trade agreement with as part of the EU. The EU has also negotiated or is in the process of negotiating trade deals with other countries, including Japan and Australia.
and the Wto rules mean that if we have no tarriffs on EU trade we can have no tarrifs with anyone
The numbers are very simple. Approx. 40% of our trade is with countries who do not belong to EU or are covered by an agreement. Approx. 50% is EU trade and therefore taken out. Therefore 40/50 equals 80%. Of the remaining 10%, 8% will be covered by rollover deals. 8/10 equals 80%. Actuals are slightly different and I was using more uptodate 2018 numbers than that article (2016), the broad numbers are similar.
TJ mefty did say 80% of our non EU trade which is the other ~40% in the fullfact link
He is wrong to say that won't change tho , as you pointed out MFN rules could chat it depending on how we treat EU trade
Which is partly why we'll end up with some sort of deal.
Leaving with no deal would be an even bigger gift to Sturgeon
+ When will indyref2 be , is the going to be the next question, a no deal would see Sturgeon play her hand sooner, if a deal she'll have to wait a wee bit longer
#BorisFarwellTour today was pretty desperate stuff , his popularity up there is so dire could he even fill Ibrox with his Scottish supporters 😜?
Then we have to remove the Blue from the Red White & Blue & rename ourselves..
Wangland ?
Lesser Britain ?
Little Britain ?
He is wrong to say that won’t change tho , as you pointed out MFN rules could chat it depending on how we treat EU trade
Well the discussion was mainly about exports which wont change. As far as imports are concerned we will of course have a new tariff schedule which is a benefit.
As far as improts is concern we will of course have a new tariff schedule which is a benefit.
Unless we end up in reatilliatory tit for tat tariffs
Which would not be a benefit (see China/trump)
Replying to an hours old post on a fast moving thread is pointless.
Please ignore ;o)
TJ- The UK has the MHRA which issues guidance for pharmaceutical manufacturers and distributors, these are the guidelines we use, it is called the orange guide.
Our company also follows FDA guidelines for the US market, other rules for ROW are VICH guidelines in our case.
Brexit Britain - will they bring back Betamax?
Kimbers - I did acknowledge the misreading of Meftys post
Dougie - what about the EMA?
Yes the MHRA guidelines are aligned to those.
In answer to someones post about the two types of brexiteers, for a start I have to work and I also have to sleep.
So what about these EU FTAs then?
What percentage of UK trade is done with Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and Greenland?
Also regarding non-sequitirs, I am replying to more than one voice here.
I often think that certain elements of a no deal WTO type exit are often overlooked, after all pure free trade is a the heart of the ERG and Tory party in general so if you analyse what would happen under a WTO exit and a zero tariff environment you start to see how a Tory gov would survive...
1. Food and consumer food are likley to become cheaper ,(The Rees Mogg, Tim Wetherspoon argument) this would keep the Redwall Tory voters happy and in practical terms reduce the amount you need to pay people in both wages and benefits over an extended period. The downside is it will remove large parts of Farming and food production as well as manufacturing (but may protect the car industry in the UK)
2. The disaster capitalists will have their day.
3. Deregulation becomes the norm but the great unwashed dont care as beer is a £1 a pint and a new TV is a £100 and chickens are 3 for a £1.
4 no need for new customs posts/people and the whole of the UK is a freeport...
So what about these EU FTAs then?
What percentage of UK trade is done with Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and Greenland?
All the Rollover FTAs we have so far are ~8% of UK trade, and not one of them represents an improvement on what we have now,
(& iirc only the Chile one stays exactly the same in case of No Deal brexit- even then, things like rules of origin mean our exports to them will be effected)
It's a far cry from ...
And what do we gain from our deal with the SADC, which includes South africa and Mozambique?
Quick google gives these figures; "Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion."
So £10 billion?
When the total looks like this;
"In 2019, the UK's exports of goods and services totalled £700 billion and imports totalled £724 billion"
I propose when all is said and done the UK economy looks more or less the same with a shift in trade to a more R.O.W focus, and yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.
What I dont see is the closing down sale that many on here would have us believe Bojo and his chums are planning.
Quick google gives these figures; “Trade continuity agreements signed cover countries accounting for £89 billion of the UK’s trade. When the SACU+M agreement is signed and takes effect, this will go up to £99 billion.”
So £10 billion?
That's not an increase of £10bn in trade
What it means is that an extra 10bn is stil covered by the FTA we had with the EU
All this has done is ensured we don't lose out on some of the trade benefits the EU had got for us .
It still leaves us with huge costs to cover, way in excess of membership fee
yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.
When you say instability, you mean closures & job losses
more instability.
When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.
Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That's "taking back control" for you.
This is handy
Bloomy estimate of what we gain/lose with FTAs & assuming we get an FTA with EU
What's funny is Truss has asked her department to come up with a different USA FTA figure because she says 0.16% doesn't 'feel' right
yes I will admit that may lead to more instability.
Including the end of the UK with a united ireland and an independent scotland? the loos of all the oil revenues to the exchequer, the loss of much of londons financial services to Germany, France and iScotland?
Whats even funnier Kimbers is there will be no FTA with the EU as is becoming more obvious by the day thus the financial hit will be even greater and of course those no EU FTA have not been made yet in most cases.
When you say instability, you mean me having to spend a few hundred quid (and a couple of days) sorting out Estonian e-residence so I can move my business over there and pay €20k of tax in Estonia rather than the UK next year.
Slow hand clap for doogie, well done. That’s “taking back control” for you.
As is your want captain, things like factories and banking networks cannot be moved so easily.
Including the end of the UK with a united ireland and an independent scotland? the loos of all the oil revenues to the exchequer, the loss of much of londons financial services to Germany, France and iScotland?
Hold on I got called out for speculation
Kimbers, your graph suggest to me a GDP shortfall of 0.6%
Thats a hit I dont think I have suggested there wont be a hit from realigning our economy.
Whilst the breakup of the UK is speculation at the moment under the GFA there is a right to have a border poll and in Scotland the SNP are heading for a landslide with a large pro independence majority and polling in both places shows a significant majority for independence.
As for financial services - a lot has already gone and much more will follow after the no deal crash out. iScotland will be in a uniquely advantageous place to attract them as its clear iScotland will just smoothly go back into the EU
Someone reposted the governments leave Brexit contract with the British people that they used during the referendum.
Number 1, EU Trade : Exact same benefits.
The rest are equally balls but somehow the people are getting what they voted for?
so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?
As is your want captain, things like factories and banking networks cannot be moved so easily.
You know all those industries like motorbikes and cycles and ship building and cars and, and, well, Christ, the list is now almost endless.
You know how they all ****** off abroad?
You really are, on biblical scale, deluded. Stunning.
What? Triumph and BMW to where? China?
So it happens to German companies too?
You are saying thats a direct result of Brexit, or Globalisation and and increase in China's high tech manufacturing industry?
so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?
But think of the long-term? Gig-economy and less red-tape for employers could herald unlimited earning potential if prepared to work hard for it. We could be like the USA in what, 15 years? Who would you rather bet your home/money/first-born on? One of this bunch of backwards-looking remainers who still cling to the EU:
Or would you prefer to be yachting around the 51st State of Biglygood?
Triumph already do much of their manufacturing in Thailand.
Financial services are moving - some already done so and many with plans to do so
The UK BMW operation will be run down as will Nisan - because they lose their ability to export into the EU. Nissan have already made it clear
Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?
It isn't a question of want, doogie, it's a last resort if I want to keep my business running as it does currently. I haven't done the final move as it will cost more money and can be done in days when finally required. But I had to put the framework in place.
so you think a 10 year + recession is a price worth paying? You realise how much Brexit has already cost the UK?
Not so bad? Estimates (2022, IIRC?) say Brexit will have soon recouped the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.
*Edit
Sorry. That should have been
Brexit will cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.
https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T
I was momentarily affected by Brevidence to the contrary. Felt good though. I can see the attraction if I just bang head repeatedly at this door-frame some more.
Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?
People in Paris and Frankfurt can still speak/write in English.
Its the reason the city in the UK is so successful.
Its the reason the city in the UK is so successful.
Oh my god. Funny.
Ok one of