Ukraine

are any of the leaders in this conflict legitimate targets?

I don’t doubt for a second that Putin would consider Zelenskyy a very legitimate target, with the side benefit of any western politician that happened to be visiting.

The Israelis also killed the chief Hamas negotiator a few weeks ago. I guess it very much depends very much on who is writing the rules, Putin and Netanyahu in their own minds probably completely illegitimate targets.

are any of the leaders in this conflict legitimate targets?

I am pretty sure Russia views every other leader as a legitimate target, but would cry baby back to UN about any attempt on Putin.

are any of the leaders in this conflict legitimate targets?

This has always been an interesting debate, had it many times on development courses when serving.

The geneva conventions uses the phrase ‘taking an active part in hostilities’ as a defining criteria for legitimacy. That is fairly ambiguous when you zoom out from the macro of the battlefield and move into the political landscape, of which war is an extension of

So one line of argument is that if the authority is devolved to an MoD of sorts they and the buildings that facilitate their work are legitimate targets along with ministers that work in it.

Whereas a building that simply houses the CiC may very well not be because it also carries out functions for governing the country.

Very broad brush:

• Whacking the white house with pres in it – potentially not legitimate.
• Levelling the pentagon with pres in it – legitimate target.

If international law were a serious consideration you’d have to be able to define the strike as legitimate by defining what ‘active’ part the CiC was taking i.e: planning or directing military operations.

There’s grey with nation states, less so with insurgent groups or proxy forces.

But if international law isn’t something you view as a concern that governs your decision making then you can go wild.

Here’s a link to a paper that we had to read to then debate the pros/cons.

https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1107&context=vjtl

I think RUSI also has some papers on this.

 There’s also the argument that his paranoia and repeated sacking and reshuffling of advisers and senior officers

Putin’s hero Stalin did the same in WW2, I had a tour of the Russian Air Force museum just outside Moscow in about 1997, the old guy showing us round pointed out all the Marshalls that were sacked until Stalin found a “lucky” one. The other interesting thing was the exhibits showing that the Soviets had invented everything…

The Russians have tried to assassinate all the top Ukrainian officials, they’ve just not got lucky yet. If Putin dies for whatever reason it’s a chance for his successor to blame everything on his predecessor – see Khrushchev. That might mean an end to the war.

are any of the leaders in this conflict legitimate targets?

And does it vary by country?

In the UK we have a civilian government, and the Monarch is the head of the armed forces. So is Charlie a legitimate target but Keir not? Whereas other countries roll the head of the government / head of state / commander in chief into one.

Is Buckingham Palace a legitimate target for bombing, but Downing Street would be a war crime?

And does it vary by country?

In the UK we have a civilian government, and the Monarch is the head of the armed forces. So is Charlie a legitimate target but Keir not? Whereas other countries roll the head of the government / head of state / commander in chief into one.

Other way around, for example UKSF operations are sanctioned directly by the PM with no parliamentary agreement. He may brief the King, but the PM is sanctioning them on the advice of his Director Special forces.

See my post above for ‘active part’, that’s where the legitimacy lays. If you give a shit about international law that is!

 There’s also the argument that his paranoia and repeated sacking and reshuffling of advisers and senior officers is of strategic benefit to Ukraine.

This became a thing in about 1944, the allies decided that Hitler was of more benefit to them in power and so left him alone.

The beer hall bomb of 1939 would undoubtedly have done a lot of good had it worked, but the von Stauffenberg attempt in July 1944 would not have benefited the allies at all, they had stopped trying by then.

Ben Wallace was suggesting that international law over what is legitimate was pretty clear. So anything military is, but a politician / “great” leader not, likewise infrastructure / targeting of things.

I think the only side in this war who would have a disagreement about international law and who may lack integrity are the ones who started it. Everyone else wants it to end.

I’m not naive enough to think that the death of Putin would bring some kind of clog-wearing peacenik to power;

I do think the almighty fracas as various oligarchs, generals and officials scrabble to get their loyal forces back to the Kremlin in order to seize power and every breakaway province in the federation tries its luck could just cripple the Russian war effort to such a degree that Ukraine is able to start rolling up Russian troops and at least return to the 2022 borders.

Any new leader’s hold on power is then likely to be so tenuous that they’ll want every loyal man with a gun at home so they’ll want peace and sharpish.

Autocracies suck at succession, hence the whole idea of hereditary monarchy to produce an obvious heir. Russia doesn’t have anything like this so working out which goes next is likely to be very messy

Refinery fire in Rostov still going after 6 days. Just insane.

It seem such an obvious move – but I am not an expert on the politics of why countries are still refusing, other than a concern Russia would use it as an excuse to attack the supplying country?

Storm Shadow and it’s French analogue SCALP-EG were originally developed by Matra (Fr) and BAe Dynamics (UK) and are supplied to Ukraine as a joint venture with Italy. Some components are US-licensed and all of the countries have to agree T&Cs to supply Ukraine.

“Officials in certain corners of the administration have told the Ukrainians that the U.S. will eventually want to reset relations with Moscow and lifting the restrictions could upend those efforts.” https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/23/ukraine-biden-weapons-restrictions-00176210

Politicians across the west will want a normalisation in trade as well

You won’t be the only one that’s confused. Sir Keir Starmer and John Healey both gave advice that had to be clarified https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/07/20/ukraine-can-use-british-storm-shadows-inside-russia-new-uk-defense-secretary-says/

The only one who’s been clear is Ben Wallace,

“Their use of Storm Shadow will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian Sovereign Territory.” and “It is my judgement as the Defence Secretary that this is a calibrated proportionate response to Russia’s escalations.” https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-oral-statement-on-war-in-ukraine–3

There’s little chance that Germany will supply Taurus and the manufacturers have now given up waiting and closed production

…which is a real shame as the Taurus, from what I’ve read, would be pretty much the perfect weapon to drop the Kerch Strait Bridge

Apologies for the double post but I’ve just finished the 2 videos that Chosen company from the international legion posted in the last week.

It’s a searing look at the realities of modern high-intensity combat and truly humbling when you think of the courage of those involved, STRONG viewer discretion is advised, it’s pretty raw stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/@ILDUkraine

Footage of a Ukrainian helicopter door gunner shooting down a shaheed drone.  With what looks like an FN MAG GPMG. Low tech but effective. A bit risky too if the warhead were to function that close to their own airframe. Ballsy.

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1827655738384167228?t=n96aM9DUkr-qkrUo__BVuA&s=19

To get away from the war itself briefly and some historical context, this was written by one my students.

https://www.edinburghinquirer.co.uk/p/today-is-a-symbol-of-hope-for-thousands

Have we done the emerging new drone tech from Ukraine? This here ‘rocket cruise missile cum drone on a box’ and seems that thier lightweight ‘used to be a plane’ drones have got a huge range increase.
I’m wondering if this kind of development and production will be a significant factor?
Russia seems slow to develop these things and on its knees financially/ resources /people on factories, so could Ukraine begin to out innovate and our produce?

Yup, they’re hitting air bases right up by the Russia/Finland border now.

Ukraine is actively going after anything involved in delivering those damn glide bombs that have been so devastating to Ukraine over the last 12 months.

One of the advantages of the Kursk offensive is that it’s probably allowed Ukriane to move one of their Patriot systems up to where it can reach deep into Russia.

The high number of Airframes Russia has lost in the last 10 days strongly suggests this, even if Ukraine would never confirm or deny it… obviously.

well sounds like russia is sticking to the plan of destroying energy infrastructure. reporting over 200 missles and drone attacks last night.

And those 200 missiles aimed straight at infrastructure, hotels, heck anything they fancy lobbing missiles at.

It really does feel like the western partners need to step up with more longer range missiles and just let them aim them at every military installation within a few hundred miles of the Russian border…

Have we also done Belarus sabre rattling on the border? If they do try to get involved (and let’s be honest, this is Pootin clutching at straws from ‘allies’), surely battled experienced Ukraine will sweep away their relatively small military? Plus of course there are many in Belarus who would happily tip over the current delightful leadership…

Have we also done Belarus sabre rattling on the border? If they do try to get involved (and let’s be honest, this is Pootin clutching at straws from ‘allies’), surely battled experienced Ukraine will sweep away their relatively small military?

It’s counter-productive to all concerned for a variety of reasons, however, it will divert media attention from Kursk

Plus of course there are many in Belarus who would happily tip over the current delightful leadership…

Very much so, and the entire reason why Belasrus wasn’t involved from the start, the minute any large proportion of Lukashenko’s thugs leave the country to help in Ukraine sales of lamposts and rope will go through the roof.

I almost hope Belarus does get involved, OSINT assesments seem to rate Belkarus’s military as one of the most corrupt and incompetent out there so they’re unlikely to give Ukraine too much bother and the very likely ousting of a key Putin sock-puppet right on the NATO/Russia border would be a serious strategic gain in the long run.

It’s not like Putin has any spare people he can send to help prop up Lukashenko like he did in 2020-21.

Just done the usual morning catch up on this thread….

At the current time, how many active conflicts is russia supporting? There is Ukraine obviously, but are they arming Iran, Hezbollah and involved in Syria as well? With the amount of degredation in Ukraine, they must be struggling to support other countries.

Also, post the russian visit, I wonder what Modi will come away from Zelenski with.

Also, post the russian visit, I wonder what Modi will come away from Zelenski with.

An ear bending that Ukraine didn’t start this, and much like India’s own border conflict, one they are not prepared to hand over land to resolve ..

Belarus won’t invade Ukraine.

Belarus won’t invade Ukraine.

Yes. If they were going to, they would have done it right at the beginning when Ukraine was on the back foot.

Have we done the emerging new drone tech from Ukraine? This here ‘rocket cruise missile cum drone on a box’ and seems that thier lightweight ‘used to be a plane’ drones have got a huge range increase.

6-700 km range apparently and powered by cheap, lightweight jet engines so a lot quicker than the prop driven drones and converted microlight and light aircraft used until now.  Still relatively slow and vulnerable to AD compared to true cruise and ballistic missiles. However Russia is big with limited and thinly spread AD resources, which are constantly eroded  due to AFU targeting.

If Ukraine can manufacture these at scale, then I think they will be a real problem for Putin.  They have the advantage of no sanctions on parts, a dynamic tech and defence industry highly motivated by the existential threat and hopefully a bit of a helping hand from Western partners. As it’s homegrown tech, it gets around Biden, Shultz et al’s hand wringing about Western weapons used on Russian soil.

They’ve already had huge success with the older tech, these should up the ante quite a bit.  Zelensky has promised a response to the massive strikes on their power infrastructure of the last few days.  A cynical attempt to ensure the population have no heating or lighting this winter. I wonder if these new drones will be part of that response?  Launching a few at every Moscow power station, gas facility and electricity sub-station would seem proportionate to me in the circumstances, maybe with a load of the prop versions as decoys or to stretch AD.

Launching a few at every Moscow power station, gas facility and electricity sub-station would seem proportionate to me in the circumstances

Indiscriminate use would be a war crime. Russia has been in violation of the Geneva Convention since day 1, but Ukraine is too reliant on the “west” to stray too far

You can make an argument for certain shared energy infrastructure and attack “those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action” https://casebook.icrc.org/case-study/icrc-ihl-and-challenges-contemporary-armed-conflicts

Russia’s behaviour throughout challenges the notion of normalised relations after their invasion of Ukraine has ended

Belarus won’t invade Ukraine.

I agree that it’s unlikely, for the reasons I listed above, but they don’t actually need to invade to hurt Ukraine’s war efforts.

One of the key reasons Ukraine’s Kursk offensive (it still blows my mind that, almost 3 weeks in and Ukraine is still holding Russian soil) is such a headache for Putin is that suddenly a huge swathe of the border that up until now he’d been able to leave lightly defended and garrisoned now needs a massive increase in troop numbers and defensive infrastructure.

My strong impression is that the main logic of the recent sabre rattling from Belarus is to try and give Ukraine the same dilemma and force them to divert resources from other areas to reinforce to the Belarusian border, after all, whilst Belarusian troops have not moved into Ukraine, the Russians were certainly free to move through there in 2022.

I’m hopping that Budanov has made it clear to Lukashenko’s goons that if one single platoon steps over the boarder he’s sending all the battle-hardened Belarussian volunteer units currently fighting for Ukraine back home with a load of spare weapons and instruction manuals.

Vive La Revolution!

I’m hopping that Budanov has made it clear to Lukashenko’s goons that if one single platoon steps over the boarder he’s sending all the battle-hardened Belarussian volunteer units currently fighting for Ukraine back home with a load of spare weapons and instruction manuals.

Now that would be a 3-day special military operation….

I doubt that the enigmatic General Budanov has had to say too much

…for a variety of reasons…

President Lukashenko is facing an election in February and is already under international sanctions for fixing the 2020 results.

Belarus’s military is small and their equipment isn’t the best but they kept Lukashenko in power in 2020.

The people of Belarus rebelled against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 and in response hundreds were arrested.

Russia would be obliged to help Belarus under the CSTO, spreading their frontline massively. The CSTO has already lost the support of Armenia because an intervention wasn’t made against Azerbaijan in 2022/23

The part played by Belarus in Russia’s invasion has earned them tighter sanctions against both individuals and the economy from the UK, EU, etc for aiding the invasion and the legislation is in place to tighten them further (most recently tightened in June (war) and August (human rights abuses))

Belarus’s military is small and their equipment isn’t the best but they kept Lukashenko in power in 2020.

Only just and with help from Putin, 4 years later the sanctions will have taken their toll and that help from the East will be far less forthcoming.

A fresh insurrection will be very very hard for Lukashenko to keep a lid on, especially as most of Belarus’s neighbours will be rooting for it to succeed.

 “those objects which by their nature, location, purpose or use make an effective contribution to military action”

Oil refineries and depots, armament and armament component factories, rail and road infrastructure used to transport troops and armaments are all fair game under that definition. Ukraine has a very broad range of legal targets without having to stoop to Russia’s level.

A fresh insurrection will be very very hard for Lukashenko to keep a lid on…

My point exactly.

That’s one reason why Belarus won’t be led into war now. Their military will either rebel because the will of the people was made clear in 2022 or it’ll be too weak to keep Lukashenko in power because of war.

Lose, lose

Apparently Zelensky has just announced a successful final test of a Ukrainian produced ballistic missile with a range upto 500km… So now they have home-made rocket drone/cruise missile and a short range ballistic missle.

They don’t even need our permission if these work…

I wonder how many of the drone/cruise missiles and the ballistic missiles they can now produce?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2

Yet another reason for the West to take the brakes off Ukraine’s use of Western Systems.

I am also wondering if a few neighbours such as Poland would be up for assisting with the manufacture…

A new incursion has been reported, into the Belgorod region.

A fresh headache for Putler !!

And the national guard in St Petersburg have been carelessly smoking again.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/27/ukraines-f-16s-have-scored-their-first-aerial-kills/

F-16s have been shooting down cruise missiles.

What if NATO supplies Ukraine with parts , not entire weapons systems .
So the tech savvy Ukraine boffins bolt for example , a cbu87 front end to their new rocket drone .
Thus enabling a decade of R&D of ways to disable an airfield with minimal fuss and not infringing on the will of the USA that some weapons are not to be used on Russia.
Therefore any army or air force facility within range is a legitimate target, and a handful of these targeted apart could put lots of hardware out of action overnight.

I also think, rather like the delivery Havilland mosquito, many little fabricatiors in Europe will be getting orders for a few hundred parts of turned metal that get dispatched to a random address in Poland where a team could assemble the parts on a production line.
And I never understood why they didn’t fit a long range tank in the Bombay of the mosquito and turn it into a long range high speed fighter escort.
Or why on landing craft the front door didn’t have a 90 degree return on it , so when it opens you have to go left or right and an mg42 can’t fire straight into the door way, and a smoke canister could have been mounted on the upright bit, and the upright would have worked like a roof protecting the front 6ft from air burst shrapnel