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  • Ukraine
  • dyna-ti
    Full Member

    I honestly dont see Russia invading the Ukraine, it’s much easier to keep the Americans on their toes and just sit and do nothing.

    All we’ve had is speculation, the Russians are going to do this, the Russians are going to do that, the Russians are poised to invade and its days away.

    It was days away weeks ago.

    .

    The UK has given the Ukraine some ATGM’s, like those are magic and couldnt be attacked in any other ways, from the air for example.They can also be jammed, and modern tank armour is pretty impressive against anti tank weapons.. And how many did we give them ? 10, a 100 ?. Russia probably has more Tanks on the border than missiles we could supply, so why give them.

    Maybe NATO is hoping some drunken Ukrainian is going to kick things off themselves.

    But personally, with the exception of the lone nut, nobody really wants to start anything.

    thols2
    Free Member

    I honestly dont see Russia invading the Ukraine,

    They invaded Crimea and other border regions years ago. The question is, to what degree will Putin escalate the invasion that has already occurred. Putin has put himself in a position where he cannot back down. NATO rejected his demands, if he doesn’t respond, he looks weak.

    The UK has given the Ukraine some ATGM’s, like those are magic and couldnt be attacked in any other ways, from the air for example.They can also be jammed, and modern tank armour is pretty impressive against anti tank weapons.. And how many did we give them ? 10, a 100 ?. Russia probably has more Tanks on the border than missiles we could supply, so why give them.

    Ukraine doesn’t have an effective air force, the only way they can fight tanks is with ground launched missiles. Those missiles can also be used to attack fortified emplacements so they aren’t purely an anti-tank weapon. Modern anti-tank missiles are fire-and-forget and attack the tank from above, not from the sides. They have a two-stage warhead. The first stage triggers the explosive armour, the second stage is intended to penetrate the conventional armour under that.

    If the missiles were ineffective, there’d be no reason for Russia to be upset about supplying them to Ukraine. It’s not necessary to destroy every enemy tank to render them less effective. If the Russians know that Ukraine has modern anti-tank missiles, they will be forced to adjust their tactics accordingly, which constrains their tactical and strategic options. Russia may have a lot of tanks, but they can’t deploy them all to Ukraine – they still need troops and armour along their other borders. The U.S. has tens of thousands of anti-tank missiles so they can supply Ukraine with enough missiles to make a full-scale invasion very costly for Russia. Ukraine could not withstand a full-scale invasion by Russia, but they could make it a very costly victory.

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    Is the Crimea not where the Russian Black Sea fleet lives ?, so completely understandable and i expect any superpower would have done the same if it meant having ‘enemies'(loose term) in that area.

    If the missiles were ineffective

    I’m not saying they’re totally ineffective, but as powerful and useful as they are, the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?. Wait till the US or whomever supplies more. I’m not sure they could get them there in time to do any good as Russia would certainly launch an all out assault and overrun airports and more than likely Ukrainian positions.

    Thats the thing people seem to forget, they think its Hollywood and nobody runs out. Ships, be they destroyers, frigates or carriers have a finite supply and when thats expended, that ship or whatever needs to retire. I doont think theres a carrier afloat that can sustain itself for more that a fortnight,maybe 3 weeks before they run out of supplies. In a battle the Ordnance is going to run out a lot faster

    Theres 26 Airports spread throughout Ukraine, but with Russian forces to the north,east and south that leaves only about 5, and i dont see them being of much use when by that time Russia is occupying 2/3 of the country.

    As ever, its the airports in these things that become the targets first. No airport = no resupply.

    But as i said. Nothing is going to happen. Russia isnt going to invade.

    FuzzyWuzzy
    Full Member

    I’m not saying they’re totally ineffective, but as powerful and useful as they are, the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?.

    We don’t know the number the UK is prepared to supply, let alone what other countries like the US may have supplied.

    Wait till the US or whomever supplies more. I’m not sure they could get them there in time to do any good as Russia would certainly launch an all out assault and overrun airports and more than likely Ukrainian positions.

    You’re assuming there’s none stockpiled in neighbouring NATO countries

    As ever, its the airports in these things that become the targets first. No airport = no resupply.

    Whilst air re-supply would be optimal we’re not talking about the Falklands here – you could easily and effectively resupply by land. If Russia goes beyond the Donbas they’re going to get bogged down, this won’t be a 2-3 day skirmish with Ukraine being overrun.

    We’re also not sure what air defence systems Ukraine has in place – if Russia can’t effectively use it’s air force (especially in ground support roles) they’ll likely take a lot of losses (beyond the Donbas anyway).

    But as i said. Nothing is going to happen. Russia isnt going to invade.

    Hopefully not but as has been said, what’s Putin’s next move? It can’t be cheap keeping 100k troops at the Ukrainian border and he’s talked himself into a position he can’t back down from without appearing weak. If he hadn’t previously invaded the Crimea I’d be a lot more sceptical about a Russian invasion now.

    Escalating cyber activity isn’t a good sign either, I don’t believe it’s all (or even mostly) being carried out by independent Russian patriots. It’s sanctioned and likely orchestrated by Russian intelligence (along with them being directly involved). Even the recent Revil arrests seem to be just a distraction tactic to me, letting Russia say “see, we’re cooperating in hunting down cyber criminals” whereas in fact Revil was already largely defunct and Russia are secretly coordinating with other groups on cyber attacks against Ukraine.

    shermer75
    Free Member

    Only had time to read the first third but I agree, it’s really well written!

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    Ben Wallace (uk defence secretary) has released a statement on the situation and I’m surprised (shocked?) as to how well it is written.

    That was a good read, cheers.

    big_n_daft
    Free Member

    All we’ve had is speculation, the Russians are going to do this, the Russians are going to do that, the Russians are poised to invade and its days away.

    It was days away weeks ago.

    I don’t think your Facebook feed is helping you. The slightly obvious massing you can see from space isn’t just speculation.

    The delay is related to weather, the urgency related to conscripts going home on the normal rotation. There’s also the calculations Putin is doing on what he will gain/risk.

    I’m not saying they’re totally ineffective, but as powerful and useful as they are, the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?

    I imagine they know this, tha calculation is they add to the likely losses if Putin invades and changes his calculations. The cumulative impact of strengthening with this that and the other. It’s that old concept called deterrence.

    Maybe NATO Putin is hoping some drunken Ukrainian is going to kick things off themselves.

    FIFY

    Murray
    Full Member

     I don’t think it was the West’s military might that won the Cold War.

    Yes and no. The US intentionally did things that increased the amount that the USSR had to spend on defence like recommissioning WW2 battleships with very thick armour which required the USSR to develop the capability to defeat the armour and Star Wars. It didn’t matter if Star Wars was never going to work, it required the USSR to do their own research. Before YouTube, so expensive 😉

    I went to Moscow twice – once in 1989 so pre the breakup of the USSR, on the way through to China, once in 1997 to work for 4 months. The difference was amazing. In 1989 their were shortages of everything, queues for e.g. shampoo. In 1997 everything was available if you had money but lots of people didn’t. The people I worked with (ex Space City and ex KGB) were somewhere in the middle. They liked the freedom, didn’t like the inequality.

    My Russian friends (living in England) took their teenage kids to Russia for a long summer holiday just before COVID. The kids were keen to see the motherland. The parents wanted to show them how much better England is. The kids came back convinced that England was a better place to live.

    thols2
    Free Member

    The kids came back convinced that England was a better place to live.

    Ukrainians have come to the same conclusion about not wanting to live in Russia.

    wbo
    Free Member

    I think (Dyna-Ti) you underestimate the Ukraininans quite a lot. Yes, they’ve bought anti tank missiles form the UK, they’ve also bought them from the US and others, anti aircraft missiles and anti tank drones from the Turks, and enough of them. The drones are a particular concern to the russians as they’ve been used recently and demonstrated to be effective against Russina armour (syria)
    Also – have you looked at a map of the Ukraine – resupply is plenty possible. If putin invades to support his mother Russia fantasy it will be limited, to minimise getting bogged down. You aren’t going to see hundreds of tanks rolling along while a couple of hundred Ukrainian POW’s stand around in 1950’s gear.
    Putin CAN’T get bogged down… it accelerates the possibility of the south kicking off again, and this time uncontrollably. Common sense says he doesn’t invade… but common sense might not be the decider to a man on a crusasde

    hatter
    Full Member

    It’s all rather worrying.

    Was reading into some discussion on this yesterday, apparently one of the key reasons the Russians haven’t crossed the border yet is that they’re having a really mild, wet Winter over there and any attempt to move heavy armour through all that mud in Easten Ukraine be a nightmare.

    If they get a cold snap soon and the ground freezes,it’s game on. This is why the invasion’s been ‘days away’ for weeks now.

    The Ukrainians are fully aware of their situation and are already planning to resist initially and then switch to guerilla tactics, guerilla insurgencies are hard to deal with even when they’re impromtu and some of the population are friendly (the US in Iraq for example).

    In Ukraine the insurgency will be planned, backed by the government, trained in advance, well equipped and supported by almost every member of the public, it’ll get very very nasty, very quickly.

    hatter
    Full Member

    Putin CAN’T get bogged down… it accelerates the possibility of the south kicking off again,

    Oh and this is a great point, if Putin does go into Ukraine, then it’s pretty likely Chechnya will kick off again. Kazakhstan is already in tumult and Putin is committed to helping there. Georgia probably won’t be far behind.

    Hence why he can’t afford to get bogged dowm, hence why the new Ukrainan defence doctrine is likely to be effective.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Question guys..?

    Turkey has a tenuous relationship with Russia and is in NATO of course.

    I’m surprised they have helped Ukraine with the drones, seems a pretty forthright FU to Putin? Doesnt this go against their general policy towards Russia?

    Educate me.

    Murray
    Full Member

    Turkey’s economy is down the toilet – 36% inflation, all the serious economists already sacked by the government for disagreeing with policies that were bound to screw the economy. They need the cash, their drones are battle proven in Syria, I suspect they will sell to anyone.

    Re NATO, they are a member but they’re not getting access to advance technology like the F35 because of their purchase of Russian radar. Back in the cold war they were very useful as a base for missiles and planes – same distance to Moscow as from Berlin, much closer to the industry beyond the Urals. Now I’m not sure how vital they are to NATO.

    RustyNissanPrairie
    Full Member

    Just reading about Turkish drone use in Syria – Putin could really get a bloody nose if Ukraine buys enough of them

    https://www.mei.edu/publications/fight-syrias-skies-turkey-challenges-russia-new-drone-doctrine

    shermer75
    Free Member

    Doesnt this go against their general policy towards Russia?

    I’m pretty sure Erdogan sees Turkey as being on equal terms with Russia in terms of sociopolitical might (I know) and therefore feels that he can do whatever he likes

    pk13
    Full Member

    Turks and Russian grumbling go back along way. Turkey need cash plain and simple but they don’t need a Russia that’s getting close. turkey needs to control the black sea and keep the lanes open.
    The Ukraine Parliament was given a vip tour of turkey last week I assume to stick two fingers up to Putin.
    Also a giggle that Thay are considering Bitcoin to get them out of the inflation spiral.

    The Globemasters are still flying in too. Also the Russian embassy is being emptied of staff if you believe the internet.

    It’s hard to see Putin backing down without losing face within the Kremlin circle.

    Hopes pinned on the German talks pulling a cat out of a bag

    shermer75
    Free Member

    The Assad regime suffered heavy losses as a result of the drone campaign: 3,000 soldiers, 151 tanks, eight helicopters, three drones, three fighter jets (including two Russian-made Sukhoi Su-24s), around 100 armored military vehicles and trucks, eight aerial defense systems, 86 cannons and howitzers, ammunition trucks and dumps, and one headquarters, among other military equipment and facilities. 

    Putin could really get a bloody nose if Ukraine buys enough of them

    You’re not wrong!!

    piemonster
    Full Member

    the small amount that the UK is supplying isnt going to last long against the Russian army, and then what ?.

    From the U.K. it’s “thousands”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-fears-tens-of-thousands-dead-if-russia-invades-ukraine-jvzh266pr

    The British military gave Ukraine thousands of anti-tank missiles this week to use in the event of an invasion by Moscow.

    I don’t know what counts as a small amount, but they’ll be getting kit from elsewhere too. No idea if they actually know how to use it.

    squirrelking
    Free Member

    No idea if they actually know how to use it.

    Can’t remember if it was someone on here or an article that said we would send army to train them.

    chewkw
    Free Member

    Time to test out new weapons in this region first before the mother of all wars start with CCP in future.

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    Latest move by Russia

    ” According to AIS data from marinetraffic.com, five Ropucha-class landing ships and one Ivan Gren-class landing ship have been dispatched from Russia’s Baltic fleet. It is believed the ships are en route towards the English Channel.”

    Just a routine patrol through international waters. Who knows, maybe they’ll do a tour of the UK, sailing in international waters.

    They might even anchor and conduct some tests.

    Thats not provocative is it ?.

    —————

    No Im not underestimating the Ukraine. But I reckon many here are over estimating their ability, US/UK supplied or not.

    @Big’n’Daft

    Im not on facebook.

    shermer75
    Free Member

    What are they going to land and where are they going to land it?

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    What are they going to land and where are they going to land it?

    Probably heading for the Black Sea.

    Speculation in some of the tabloids comments sections is of an invasion of the UK 😆

    big_n_daft
    Free Member

    Speculation in some of the tabloids comments sections is of an invasion of the UK

    https://blogs.bl.uk/magnificentmaps/2017/02/soviet-military-mapping-of-the-cold-war-era.html

    big_n_daft
    Free Member

    No Im not underestimating the Ukraine. But I reckon many here are over estimating their ability, US/UK supplied or not.

    It’s not about ability, it’s about willingness to fight, Ukraine grew up in the Donbas

    Watch the 93rd Brigade stuff on YouTube, if IT consultant’s from Kiev were getting their hands dirty as ideological volunteers then the country has changed and it’s citizens prepared to fight and unfortunately die

    @Big’n’Daft

    Im not on facebook.

    Makes me wonder where you get your tripe from? 50 cent brigade?

    big_n_daft
    Free Member

    Time to test out new weapons in this region first before the mother of all wars start with CCP in future.

    Not that new, more sell the Ukrainians short shelf life munitions cheaply as they are likely to use them

    NLAW has been around for a while, hopefully it’s easier to shoot than LAW 94 which was an awful first time experience

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    Makes me wonder where you get your tripe from?

    No need to be abusive

    Or its that the argument winner in your book. If you disagree then say that. Throwing insults out just makes me think you’re a  (Insert swear word here)

    thols2
    Free Member

    big_n_daft
    Free Member

    Throwing insults out just makes me think you’re a (Insert swear word here)

    I think you views on this issue are tripe, sometimes people take offence when you say this. I’m sure you are a perfectly nice person in real life who is capable of holding a discussion with people who say their view on a particular issue are tripe.

    Or you can take it personally and call me rude names

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    Sorry which views ?

    That the Ukraine is in an impossible position, having thrown their lot in with nato, being well aware of how Russia feels about its border security ?

    Or is it that if anything does kick off, that Ukraine is f*****d with many thousands losing their lives on both sides because of American policy of crowding in on Russia.

    Perhaps even that by arming the Ukrainians Britain is placing itself, and us in danger of retaliation from a superpower who has the ability to snuff us out. There are only a few real superpowers now, and we aint one of them.

    Or is it because im not on facebook, although just a couple of posts back on that you were accusing me of getting wrong info FROM facebook.

    How many times have we heard this from the US. Its Russia, its China,It’s Syria, its Iran, its this country, and that country. Russia is a big superpower, with all the military toys the US has. And here are we playing piggy in the middle to the detriment of ourselves and the Ukrainian people.

    So according to your tripe- (Or point of view, if you would prefer i use a term that is less argumentative), being on facebook is false info, but not being on facebook is also false info.

    So whats that about ?.On my opinion, which obviously differs from yours, though it seems like you think im some sort of pro Russia stooge.

    At no point have I disagreed with your stance, yet you’re the one going on the attack. Sorry buddy but care to explain, or are you ex military and this is your usual point of view. Out with the pitchforks for any dissenting voices querying how crazily stupid Ukrainian leadership is being, and why in Christs name the UK are stirring the pot.

    Say for example Scotland gained independence and joined the CSTO, and being part of that placed a military base on the border with England. Would England be ok with that ?. Or would they place their own troops there, and two armies that close is a recipe for disaster.

    I’ll remind you this is purely hypothetical, so lets not have another rant on those specifics and stick to the basic premise.

    I am hoping HOPING nothing happens. Others seem to self assured that Britain’s role in America’s game is the best route, when clearly it isnt. We should be hounding out own government to stay well out of this, not flying the Rule Britannia flag,

    But anyway. Its not about my opinion, or yours, so perhaps a bit of civility is best eh.

    I’ll see if i can track down someone I know who’s Ukrainian and ask what he thinks.

    big_n_daft
    Free Member

    You are the one that thinks NATO is an offensive alliance deliberately antagonising Russia

    That’s tripe, as is

    of American policy of crowding in on Russia.

    It doesn’t exist

    Perhaps even that by arming the Ukrainians Britain is placing itself, and us in danger of retaliation from a superpower who has the ability to snuff us out. There are only a few real superpowers now, and we aint one of them.

    Does Russia dictate where sovereign states can trade arms? Maybe we belong to NATO because of the Russian threat.

    wbo
    Free Member

    So you think the Ukraine should just accept their lot as a slave state of the USSR?

    piemonster
    Full Member

    .

    petedee
    Free Member

    Never knew STW forum had this many tank commanders, war lords, military strategists and military generals. Great entertainment.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    I learned everything I know from Red Alert

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    So you think the Ukraine should just accept their lot as a slave state of the USSR ?

    Sorry ?? What ?? Who said that ?

    Thats one of those damned if you do damned if you dont questions isnt it. I’ve given neither opinion on that question, but if you want me, to have an opinion on that, Ukraine should be it’s own country.

    That ok, that fair. Or should i have another opinion that suits your questioning.

    @Big’n’Daft

    Why has the US got 800 military bases spread about the world ?

    Sightseeing perhaps 😆

    ChrisL
    Full Member

    On a minor note, as I understand it, referring to Ukraine as “the Ukraine” is nowadays incorrect and seems to be considered somewhat insulting by Ukrainians.

    thols2
    Free Member

    Or is it that if anything does kick off, that Ukraine is f*****d with many thousands losing their lives on both sides because of American policy of crowding in on Russia.

    That’s not what’s happening at all. Ukrainians booted out a corrupt leader who had ties to Russia and favoured closer ties with the EU. Putin took this snub very badly and invaded Ukraine, annexing Crimea and border areas. Ukraine has severe problems with corruption and economic mismanagement and has no hope of joining the EU and NATO until those are dealt with. So, it’s not that the U.S. is trying to crowd Russia, it’s that Russia’s neighbours are afraid of it and are looking to Europe for something better. This is on Putin, not the U.S.

    thols2
    Free Member

    as I understand it, referring to Ukraine as “the Ukraine” is nowadays incorrect and seems to be considered somewhat insulting by Ukrainians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzLtF_PxbYw

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