Ukraine

One successful manufacturing and export industry Russia does have is its weapons and military hardware sector but… hmmm…. yeah…. that’s not looking so hot right now either.

It also basically sucks if you are reliant on Soviet or Russian equipment for your defense or modernization and are at odds with #NATO. Buy these systems at your risk knowing the US and NATO has had an opportunity to study them closely. pic.twitter.com/K5gGDjhghm

— Air Power (@MIL_STD) September 18, 2022

This is a crucial point. Russia can now only get seven countries to support it in the U.N. General Assembly. Half the world may resent American hegemony, but almost nobody sees Russia as a better alternative.

The advantage/disadvantage despotic states like Russia and China have is that even their supporters generally only support them as foils to “the West” or to “American hyper power” so there is no expectation or desire that Russia or China “play by the rules” or cultivate goodwill.

— John O'Grady (@jhog667) September 18, 2022

There was a great article /tweet series in this thread early on that described the mafia approach to business and how it only fosters ‘simple’ industrial activities like mining.

This is a crucial point. Russia can now only get seven countries to support it in the U.N. General Assembly

It might be significant, but not crucial. The vote was to allow Pres Zelenskyy to address the UN by pre-recorded message and isn’t listed as a high-level meeting by the UN.
The UN voted that all addresses must be in person earlier this year, which made the vote necessary. There were 19 abstentions in addition to the 7 votes against

Moldova’s kicking off now. Inflation (34%) and fuel price riots; it’s been turning towards the EU since the 2020 elections and buys from Gazprom on a variable tariff rate.
Moldova borders Ukraine near the Black Sea coast

In fairness Moldova has been kicking on and off for some time now. Poorest country in Europe (as I understand it) with its very own separatist Russian enclave of Transnistria that borders directly with Ukraine. By some accounts part of the Russian invasion strategy was to take all of the Southern Ukraine coastal area and link up with Transnistria.

Reports of disturbances say approx 5000 people. Not insignificant, but not the Maidan either. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out the Rus have their fingers all over this.

Meanwhile in other news Ukraine are now claiming the East bank of the Oskil River, which means the Luhansk is now firmly in their sights.

And ISW is now saying that as Vlad’s relationships with his army commanders breaks down (oops) he is relying more and more on inexperienced and poorly trained volunteer and Militia units. That’ll go well then.

If he’s losing (lost) the army though, how long has he got? Anyone fancy a sweepstake..?

Who will lose their job first? Brendan Rodgers or Pootin?

In fairness Moldova has been kicking on and off for some time now…snip…Wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out the Rus have their fingers all over this

Of interest because as recently as May, Russia had plans to invade Moldova, overcome its army of 3250, and split UKR forces. Whether Russia currently has that ability is now the question

If he’s losing (lost) the army though, how long has he got?

I think one of the problems Russia has in Ukraine is that it isn’t the army, it’s the armies, plural. There are some Russian regular army units, some private contractors, some Ukrainian separatist militias, etc. There isn’t a unified theatre command, so the local commanders will be bickering with each other, trying to blame others for the failures. Everyone will be watching and waiting for signs that Putin’s powerbase is cracking, trying to figure out who it is safe to ally with and who cannot be trusted.

Whilst this may have been a wizard wheeze initially, now all it means is that any Russian with a talent for business either leaves or at the very least takes their money overseas at the first opportunity.

$47bn of capital has been leaving Russia every year. I imagine its leaving a bit faster just now.

5000 is a fairly big protest in a country if only 2.5 million total.

Russia’s whole periphery is in foment now the big bad bear has had its teeth knocked out by Ukraine, hard to see how this won’t affect Transnistra in ‘some’ manner.

Great summary of the current state of the war by Ben Hodges.

that was indeed a good listen, thanks.

That was fairly optimistic, he also put a number on the Ukrainian Armed Forces size at 700,000 in uniform which I’d not seen for a while.

That was fairly optimistic

Agreed, though he did say there was a long way to go with a lot more pain and sacrifice for Ukraine.  His previous strategic analysis since the war started have been pretty spot on, though he freely admits he (like everyone else) had hugely overestimated the capability of RF beforehand.  He didn’t however, as others did, underestimate the Ukrainian forces.  As commander of United States Army Europe at around the time the Russians first started interfering in the Donbas in 2014 he’d had a hand in training them and seeing them transform from Soviet Doctrine to a more Western approach of delegating command and empowering junior officers and NCOs etc. He’s a clever guy and his views are always worth a listen.

Great video, thanks for posting!

Well, Ukraine have ‘officially’ taken their first chunk of Luhansk territory. Specifically the village of Belogorovka. Reported as such by both Grauniad and Torygraph, so it must be true. It’s consequential because in June Russia secured the whole of Luhansk – to much fanfare – and this wrecks that and is the first step in what will (hopefully) be the liberation of Luhansk.

Strategically important too as it threatens Lyschansk and Severodonestk a couple of miles to the East and Lyman to the west (which the Ukrainians have been threatening to take for the last few days). Given the state of Russian morale, and the fact that they apparently have no reserves to plug holes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more significant gains fairly soon. A view shared by everybody’s favourite ex FSB separatist mass-murderer turned rent a quote Gherkin, who has been on Telegram saying that defeat is inevitable and that a couple more setbacks will mean Putin is defenestrated..

The Russian ships and subs haven’t surfaced (see what I did there) in the news much, recently….

As Ben Hodges mentions, if Ukraine can push further they could place the Russian ships in range…

Loss of life aside, if they could sink a sub or more surface ships, it would be another game changer.

News today about Turkey stopping Mir card banking services is significant too.

A view shared by everybody’s favourite ex FSB separatist mass-murderer turned rent a quote Gherkin

Who’s that?

Who’s that?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

Denis Pushilin (Donetsk) wants Leonid Pasechnik (Luhansk) to get his finger out and get simultaneous referenda organised on joining Russia.
I think that they’re concerned that they’ll be next in the growing list of Russian political appointees who’ve been car-bombed. If a vote doesn’t happen soon then they’ll be heading back to Russia on urgent family matters, followed closely by others

In a further development, British Intelligence suggests that part of the Russian submarine fleet has been moved from Crimean waters into Russian waters at Novorossiysk. The threat of various missiles has just moved further away

Talking heads on Rus TV openly calling for Nuclear strikes on Britain (the root of all evil), saying they should have done it yesterday with so many useful targets here.  Claiming they don’t need to worry about our at sea nuclear deterrent as they would obliterate it in an instant. Absolutely hatstand, Russia really has totally lost all grip on reality. I find it hard to see, even when the war in Ukraine is over, how any country bar North Korea and Iran can have any kind of relationship with them.

Meanwhile on Russian state TV: State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulyov threatened Britain with nuclear strikes.

Host Olga Skabeeva said that Russia should have conducted a nuclear strike on Monday, since many important people were in attendance for the Queen's funeral. pic.twitter.com/qRBbiPo52L

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 20, 2022

Igor Strelkov, goes by the handle of Igor Girkin, alleged war crimes happen to involve being charged by the Dutch for MH17.

And a quick unchecked glance at Wiki suggests involvement in the Visegrad massacres way back in 1992.

Literally one of the worst human beings alive today if even half the allegations are true.

Somebody way up thread suggested this war had the stench of the Balkans conflicts to it, in terms or cruelty, and that will be down to the likes of Strelkov.

Talking heads on Rus TV openly calling for Nuclear strikes

Again? Are they hoping to sink the UK under a tsunami like on one of the previous rants?

Girkin was heavily involved in Russians sneaky non-invasion of Crimea and Easten Ukraine in 2014, making him a bit of a celebrity in patriotic Russian Circles.

Which makes him hard to ignore, but not so hard I suspect that Putin won’t consider having him ‘accidented’if Girkin keeps on banging on embarrassing him like he has been recently.

He does however show that for all Putin’s viciousness, there is an even more vicious wing of Russian machine advomore0

Again? Are they hoping to sink the UK under a tsunami like on one of the previous rants?

No, they are going to turn us into ‘a Martian desert’ this time.  Nice to have a bit of variety when it comes to Armageddon options I find…..

I find it hard to see, even when the war in Ukraine is over, how any country bar North Korea and Iran can have any kind of relationship with them.

Despite what one of our residents thinks, no one is marching on Moscow* so the only solution to Russias problem will come from within.

There’s a few scenarios, I cant see any good ones that are likely.

*Which is to a degree evidenced by the stripping of defences from (soon to be) NATO borders elsewhere.

Well, Ukraine have ‘officially’ taken their first chunk of Luhansk territory

Also picked up by the South China Morning Post and Times of India

Theyre using the same story (pretty much word for word)

Despite what one of our residents thinks, no one is marching on Moscow* so the only solution to Russias problem will come from within.

There is no credible opposition or heir apparent though. It would likely be more of the same. Even the lauded Navalny who has carefully cultivated his image in the West, is a Russian nationalist who would probably revert to type if it was him.  I see a break up of the RF into lots of impoverished republics as being more likely than someone swapping places with Putin and keeping it together.  Lots of little republics with grievances, many of them with nukes on their territory. Like you say, no good options.

The Wagner website has been hacked.

That’s a link to a Twitter post that has some graphic images.

Diplomatic language for:
“We know where your submarines are, all the time”
“Sevastopol base is now threatened”

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572085839370539010?t=jQLW2HlqVrrQ4Qe363qCZA&s=19

Big if true?

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/erdogan-ukraine-russian-agree-on-200-po-ws-swap

Our local lad Fynn, who has been raising money since the start of the war has added 3 ambulances to the fleet.
Two of the Ambulances were paid for by Oxford Products, so just saying thanks to @oxfordproducts
These ambulances will be stationed in the east of Ukraine and will save lives. Our team from the village drive them down tomorrow, sadly I can’t join them this time.
Safe journey chaps.

Nice one jkomo. Any more shopping planned since the tourniquets?

Big if true?

Also on BBC.

“Asked whether Russia should be allowed to keep Crimea – which it annexed in 2014 – Mr Erdogan said that since then, Turkey had been talking to Mr Putin about returning the peninsula “to its rightful owners” but that no progress had been made”.

Though it’s interesting to contrast that with the intention to hold referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1572223210313187328?t=3Ea8wWC1mjv7lOyC-WwMtA&s=19

Normally very pro Ukrainian channel

Big announcement seeming to be incoming too:

Putin will make an address to the nation tonight about the referendums on joining Russia in occupied Ukraine, RBC reports.

The last time he did something like this was when he announced the "special military operation" on Feb 24.https://t.co/2lAhi8UQdP

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022

It’s got to be announcing the mobilisation of the Russian arnmy, right? It’s the only option he has left!