Ukraine

(Guy investigates whether winds of change was a CIA soft power operation)

LOL! I wonder what he thinks of Status Quo..

Francis and Rick, enemies of the people hahaha

They didn't turn up late leaving me to wait, I was early!!

And my army isn't retreating. It's advancing backwards. https://t.co/2DvhZmyn0i

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) September 16, 2022

I’m enjoying this

Retweet button smashed

The Inside Russia guy has a long video about perceptions of the last week or so from inside Russia itself. I do not know how legit this guy is.

Russia is increasing its military presence in Mali through The Wagner Group and seem to be filling a void left by French troops, Mali’s former colonial rulers.
As with their other African interests this is about the control of natural resources

Russia has said that satellites could be legitimate targets in the war in Ukraine, “Quasi-civilian
infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation” https://documents.unoda.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Unofficial-translation-in-English.pdf
This will cause a problem for western governments because retaliation will involve weapons way above the current self-defence threshold

Let’s cross that bridge when we come to it. Starlink for example is massively redundant.

They’ve been threatening Starlink pretty much from day 1. I think that’s really just bluster for the domestic and Tankie audience.

At some point the Russian objective changed from acquiring territory to acquiring fridges

Captured Russian positions – two stolen fridges, a gas stove, car, quad bike, and traditional tons of garbage. pic.twitter.com/pAncgGQ7i8

— English Luhansk (@loogunda) September 16, 2022

Well, it’s all going on now. In the last hour or so, multiple reports on twitter saying that the Ukrainians have entered Lyman. Fierce fighting by all accounts, but seems to be only a matter of time. The fact that ISW has reported the Russians shelling Lyman further backs up reports of Ukrainian gains in this area.

This helped by the fact that the Ukrainians have a bridgehead East of the Oskil River in Kupyansk, which means they can advance South East towards the major logistics hub of Svatove and simultaneously South to Lyman, rolling up any Russian positions East of the Oskil on the way. Things looking very, very bad for Russia now as the route from Belgorod through Svatove is one of the core supply routes into Luhansk for the Russians. This from ISW

Ukrainian forces captured all of Kupyansk City on September 16, continuing offensive operations east of the Oskil River. Russian milbloggers initially reported that Ukrainian forces captured eastern Kupyansk before claiming that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian advances.[11] Geolocated footage confirms that Ukrainian forces established positions on the east bank of the Oskil River in Kupyansk, however.[12] Russian forces will likely struggle to hold positions in eastern Kharkiv Oblast and in northern Luhansk Oblast as Ukrainian forces establish more positions on the east bank of the Oskil River, the line at which Ukrainian forces had halted on September 11. ISW has previously assessed on September 13 that Russian forces are likely too weak to prevent further Ukrainian advances along the entire Oskil River if Ukrainian forces choose to resume offensive operations.[13] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Militia sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Nyzhnia Duvanka (20km north of Svatove, Luhansk Oblast) with HIMARS.[14]

Let’s cross that bridge when we come to it. Starlink for example is massively redundant.

The redundancy wouldnt be an issue as opposed to the space debris which would likely result. Be rather inconvenient if we get to much debris flying around.

It just doesn’t look like Russia has enough manpower and/or equipment to hold two fronts, whereas Ukraine has and can. Getting my armchair general pants on it seems to me that Ukraine has enough resources to both pin the useful bits of the Russian army in Kherson, on the wrong side of the Dnipro river, and also make useful gains in the north east. Which boggles my mind a bit to be honest! How on earth have they managed to outnumber the Russians?! I guess they are fully mobilised while Russia is relying on contractors and prisoners?!

A firefight in Kherson.  Speculation on Twitter that it’s either ‘blue on blue’ Russians shooting at each other, a fight with UKr partisans, or it’s staged.  The Russians are calling it a counter terrorist operation.

This is reportedly video of a firefight near the railway station in Kherson. Video shows a BRDM-2, BTR, and Tigr vehicle. https://t.co/HfsmvdZbJQ pic.twitter.com/ieqwc4lkoB

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 17, 2022

Nah
Ukr has more tanks now than before Russia invaded.
The Russian army leg it and dont disable their weapon systems.
The uka are already trained on type, so they just paint a yellow cross on the side and crack on.
Where as the rua have hundreds less tanks than they started out with, so its easier for the ukr to outgun and out manoeuvre the rua.

Be rather inconvenient if we get to much debris flying around.

Off Topic Science Fact

While there are about 2,000 active satellites orbiting Earth at the moment, there are also 3,000 dead ones littering space. What’s more, there are around 34,000 pieces of space junk bigger than 10 centimetres in size and millions of smaller pieces that could nonetheless prove disastrous if they hit something else.

https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/what-is-space-junk-and-why-is-it-a-problem.html

Useful daily updates here:

A firefight in Kherson

That’s crazy!

A bit more footage here:

Novas imagens da operação antiterrorista que terminou a menos de meia hora perto da estação ferroviária de Kherson. pic.twitter.com/ilPazC1uga

— Hugo Borges (@HugoBor73884636) September 17, 2022

Pro Ukrainian sources are claiming thats staged, but could eaily be wanting to hide partisans getting caught.

Pro Ukrainian sources are claiming thats staged, but could eaily be wanting to hide partisans getting caught.

Sounds about right

There’s heavy fighting to the NW of Kherson city. Partisan action within the city will embolden citizens, lower Russian morale and, potentially, damage rail logistics. More Russian defence of the city lowers frontline availability
You only see one bit of what’s going on, but I’d expect a bigger Russian reaction

This account belongs to a France 24/Duetsche Welle correspondent

?? I am just back from the mass graves site in Izium.

It is worse than anything you can imagine.

I can confirm that at least part of the people recently buried there were tortured and had violent deaths. pic.twitter.com/Du4uTgoGzP

— Emmanuelle Chaze (@EmmanuelleChaze) September 17, 2022

😞

And apparently Mariupol, Berdyansk and Melitopol have burial sites way bigger, seen by satellite.

Plus we need to not forget about the Ukrainian POW’s and forced relocation families who are currently in Russian hands.

It’s starting to look like real evidence of war crimes which are policy, not a ‘bad’ soldier or two.

Again, Russia making itself even more of an international pariah.

Again, Russia making itself even more of an international pariah

Which isn’t great. Intelligence suggests that Russia is buying materiel from N.Korea and Iranian drones have been shot down by UKR
While Russia was more commercially aligned with the west it maintained an arms-length from N.Korea over their development of nuclear weapons and publicly backed the UN resolutions, in turn N. Korea moved away from Russia.
The development of relations with N.Korea and Iran will surely become a worry in the west, especially with Iran’s nuclear desires

Russia certainly is on it’s way to becoming a pariah state, if it isn’t already. The problems are that it’s the largest country by land area, with a ridulous amount of natural resources, which will make things a bit awkward when we inevitably have to continue trading with them

I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this. Putin knows what Russia has, he’s happy to throw his soldiers under the bus when he knows his real might are his countries natural resources. This is all just the beginning of the puppet show. I just hope I’m dead by the time it really does reach these shores.

I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this

Take a seat. Someone will be along in a minute to accuse you of torturing small furry animals.

I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this.

Not at all. A modern economy the size of Russia’s cannot survive being isolated from the rest of the world. Russia is cut off from Western technology and finance, they are on a trajectory to and up like North Korea. The Baltic is now utterly dominated by NATO and there’s a good chance that Ukraine will recapture Crimea and dominate the Black Sea. That will make it extremely difficult for the Russian navy to operate.

Take a seat. Someone will be along in a minute to accuse you of torturing small furry animals

I don’t get the reference…

If they do become a pariah state, what does that mean for Europe being on the border. Constant ongoing tensions and threats?

The problems of a weakened, reduced Russia are not confined to relations with Russia, they will go far further. Other states will be eyeing up the oil, gas and other natural resources in Siberia, client states in Asia and Africa will be looking for new patrons. Got to be good news for China, not so sure about anyone else, particularly Europe.

If they do become a pariah state, what does that mean for Europe being on the border. Constant ongoing tensions and threats?

I think they are now a pariah state.

I guess it means a lot of Western expenditure on high tech weaponry and a lot more “boots on the ground”.

The development of relations with N.Korea and Iran will surely become a worry in the west,

Compared to Russia’s previous stance of being very cosy with both China and India, I’d imagine ‘the West’ is pretty happy with the way the quality of Russia’s alliances has been degraded now both Xi and Modi seem to be more or less hanging Putin out to dry.

Small furry animals, that a band isnt it?

I dont get the reference either, but DrJ is often a bit exasperated by the “Russian about to collapse in some form” commentary, but if it is that i still dont get it.

Small furry animals, that a band isnt it?

I dont get the reference either, but DrJ is often a bit exasperated by the “Russian about to collapse in some form” commentary, but if it is that i still dont get it.

Yeah, sorry, not the best expression. I was just referring to the tendency in some quarters to view someone who isn’t 100% on board with the most optimistic view of the war as some sort of pro-Putin evil monster. 🙂

I’ve always thought that in the long run, Russia will gain much more than the west from all of this.

How do you see this panning out? How long is ‘long run’?

IMO Putin is now fatally weakened, Russia’s military threat is substantially diminished, Russia’s economy is set back by a decade or more, it’s well on its way to becoming an international pariah and the CSTO is falling apart.

On the other hand NATO is strengthened, and the US is doing fantastically well out of this war, politically and economically.

In the very long term, Russia is still a country with huge natural resources, and a lot of land that will soon become habitable due to climate change. But I don’t see how this war is helping it, other than potentially hastening Putin’s downfall.

Compared to Russia’s previous stance of being very cosy with both China and India, I’d imagine ‘the West’ is pretty happy with the way the quality of Russia’s alliances has been degraded now…

I’m not so sure that degrading is accurate, it’s becoming aligned away from the west. N.Korea has been subject to 19 UN sanctions for nuclear proliferation, India on the other hand got the UN to recognise International Yoga Day (21st June) 🙂

…both Xi and Modi seem to be more or less hanging Putin out to dry

We’ll have to wait and see. Both have benefitted from cheap fuel this year and very few countries were supportive of Russia’s invasion for a variety of reasons.
Both Russia and China used their UN veto in June to prevent further UN sanctions on N.Korea and Russia is widely reported to have supported Iran for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
I think that we’ll know more after the CCP vote next month

IMO Putin is now fatally weakened, Russia’s military threat is substantially diminished, Russia’s economy is set back by a decade or more

Russia under Putin set out to climb into the top 5 world economies (from 11th) “An excessive dependency on energy exports and the lack of technological innovation were themes of Vladimir Putin’s first state of the nation address in 2000,” But other than saying those words he’s done nothing about getting there. Before the war hey are still exactly where they were when he started, the economy has been largely stagnant throughout the past two decades, while neighbouring former USSR countries have grown, and still hugely dependant on exports. It has all this land and mineral wealth but it all just leaves the country without any value being added to it.

So having failed to move forwards for 22 years the economy going backwards even a little is a two-decade set back. Although he might have succeeded in his efforts to make oil and gas exports a less dominant factor in their economy. Every clown has a silver lining and all that.

That article (which is from this time last year) all talks of an endemic practice of Corporate Raiding – (which has parallels one of Ghadaffi’s tactics of randomly spoiling successful activities – burn down a busy little shop, sack all the staff from a popular library, take a smart student out glass and execute him in from of the school as a way of nurturing an apathetic population. ) which means there is increasing less and less business confidence, not just in a financial sense – 80% of Russian entrepreneurs believe being in business iin Russia is dangerous. Out of greed Putin is making the country poorer and poorer and billions of dollars worth of capital is just leaving the country every year.

Luke Hardings book Mafia State from 2011, although a bit dated now, details the hollowing out of Russia entrepreneurship.

Basically, the minute your business starts to take off the local bigwig will turn up and either demand massive bribes or tell you they’re buying it off you for a pittance.

If you say no then you’re chucked in jail in trumped up charges, Russian prisons contain a hugely disproportionate number of businesspeople in there on charges of embezzlement or the like.

Whilst this may have been a wizard wheeze initially, now all it means is that any Russian with a talent for business either leaves or at the very least takes their money overseas at the first opportunity.

As a result, resource exports are kinda all they have.

The mafia management style also makes it impossible to develop a viable tech industry. Mafia bosses cannot tolerate underlings having any power (or else they will overthrow the bosses), but tech companies can only innovate if decisions are made by tech specialists.

I should have added a small addendum to my previous post.

One successful manufacturing and export industry Russia does have is its weapons and military hardware sector but… hmmm…. yeah…. that’s not looking so hot right now either.