Ukraine

China letting Putin know who’s boss.

Add Xi comments and you get de-facto Beijing’s warning to Moscow that China won’t tolerate Russia’s adventurism on Central Asia.
In the long run it means that Moscow will have to consult China about most major decision in the region. https://t.co/FgJOEWrlSF

— Anton Barbashin (@ABarbashin) September 15, 2022

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/%3famp

Thanks for posting that Mark Hertling interview. He did an excellent article back in April about the differences in how Russia trains their soldiers (I think it was posted on this thread)- very insightful^^

The proper NATO Military NV kit is bonkers money and utterly impractical to issue en masse

Mate, you’ve gone for top of the line there. Absolutely no need, monocles work just as well for dismounted troops, there is a huge array of different options available in single or double tubes that although not current gen would give UKR an advantage.

That 4 tube goodness is special kit only and for good reason.

https://ft.trib.al/BPWawDk

Russian president Vladimir Putin has acknowledged Chinese “concerns” about the war in Ukraine at his first in-person meeting with President Xi Jinping since the invasion.

Putin’s comments in a meeting with Xi in Uzbekistan on Thursday were the first public admission of differences between Beijing and Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Mate, you’ve gone for top of the line there… That 4 tube goodness is special kit only and for good reason.

But….. shiny!

piemonster

On the subject of “liberation” this is a translation from an RIA Novosta article, I wont quote as it needs to be read in full to really appreciate what its saying, and how that would translate into action on the ground.

https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64
Posted 13 hours ago

That is seriously scary reading.

This amazed me

Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika firing in the east. pic.twitter.com/tFJoCgKk3B

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 15, 2022

Reading the comments it appears that he isn’t texting his pals but more likely he is using a targeting app that they have now.  The idea is that targets are fed in by various sources, humans, drones, etc and the app will automatically select the most appropriate thing to fire at the target based on how far it is away, what it is trying to hit etc.  HQ get involved with authorisation.

The idea of that being mixed in with automatic weaponry is more than a little scary.

That is seriously scary reading.

Not really, it’s just typical propaganda.

The idea of that being mixed in with automatic weaponry is more than a little scary.

The Ukranians have been using apps for artillery for a while. Not always successfully as back in 2016 it was discovered the Russians had managed to push a dodgy version of an app the Ukranians were using so they could locate the artillery units.

There seems to be an increasing amount of noise that Lyman has fallen / is about to fall. Important as it acts as a bridgehead to attack North towards Russian lines east of the river and through to Svatove (logistics hub), as well as Severodonetsk to the East, with all the strategic and political implications that an assault there would have.

If the Ukrainians can take Lyman and advance North and East from there, it will indicate that the Kharkiv campaign is more than just a blitzkrieg through poorly defended Russian territory  essentially that the Ukrainians can sustain and develop this into something bigger and more sustained.

Fingers 🤞

There seems to be an increasing amount of noise that Lyman has fallen / is about to fall.

I’m not seeing this anywhere

Four implications of a Russian defeat in Ukraine—one affects India the most

Interesting analysis from an Indian perspective

Updates:

?? have captured Dibrova south of Lyman.

?? have regained control of Spirne, southeast of Sivers'k.

Any ?? previously positioned south of Izyum which failed to withdraw prior to the city's capture have now likely surrendered. pic.twitter.com/wnOqDT3HW0

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) September 16, 2022

I’m not seeing this anywhere

Just various posts on twitter. In fairness I’m not able to confirm veracity. However it does seem that Dubrova and Siversk have fallen, which means that UA are established over the river and able to attack Lyman in the flank from the South East. Surely just a matter of time..

Leffeboy those lads will have some serious hearing problems after that. I guess their worries are way beyond tinnitus.

Mass graves are being discovered in Izyum after liberation from the russcists. The current largest burial sights has 440 unmarked graves.@ZelenskyyUa : "The necessary procedural actions have already begun there. More information – clear, verified – should be available tomorrow." pic.twitter.com/IipipvFJpb

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 15, 2022

Im not sure I’ve heard much from the French team investigating the claims at Bucha?

Advancing UKR troops have found a mass grave in Izium. 440 mostly civilian population buried there, many with injuries consistent with military attacks. The causes will need to be properly investigated

Russia is also preventing the UN and Red Cross from accessing UKR PoWs, access that the UN thinks will evidence torture and general ill-treatment

Ursula Von der Leyen discussing EU sanctions (which include UK) said, “It needed a certain amount of time for them to unfold their impact, and this is visible now”

Germany has increased pressure by taking control of Rosneft Deutschland and SEFE (Gazprom Germania). This gives Germany control of its fourth largest oil refinery. Perhaps they can now begin to contribute a little more to the Ukrainian cause? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker

This gives Germany control of its fourth largest oil refinery. Perhaps they can now begin to contribute a little more to the Ukrainian cause?

As pointed out b4 they are the 3rd biggest donor of weapons, biggest donor of medical aid & have taken over a million refugees …

Leffeboy those lads will have some serious hearing problems after that.

I’m guessing they already do and that’s why they are not wearing protection

As pointed out b4 they are the 3rd biggest donor of weapons, biggest donor of medical aid & have taken over a million refugees

True, they are the 3rd biggest donor…but it is a very distant 3rd. Less than half what the UK have delivered, and less than Poland with regards to military aid. A pretty poor showing considering the size of their economy

As pointed out b4 they are the 3rd biggest donor of weapons, biggest donor of medical aid & have taken over a million refugees …

Compare Kiel Uni figures for various countries https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker
Germany’s total commitment ranks 13, which is poor for a country that ranks 4 for GDP
Poland has taken 3.5 million refugees (more than half the total) and ranks 22 for GDP
Germany has hidden behind promises that it’s only just starting to fulfill and, in the words of my last headteacher, must try harder

X with shermer

Nice. https://t.co/4hbZKuMYoS

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 16, 2022

That bar graph has been posted a couple of times I think, but isn’t Germany a big contributor to the “EU Institutions”?

I’m guessing the chart shows the EU as a whole as well as each country separately?

China letting Putin know who’s boss.

Russia definitely is playing second fiddle to China now

From that chart

Includes bilateral commitments to Ukraine. Does not include private donations, support for refugees outside of Ukraine, and aid by international organizations. Commitments by EU Institutions include Commission and Council, MFA, EPF and EIB funds and can also be added to individual EU countries. Financial commitments that are made explicitly for military and weapons purchases are counted as military aid.

In a single day at least 5 Russian-installed officials have been killed on occupied Ukrainian territory. Two in Luhansk, one in Kherson, & two more in Berdyansk. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility but this is sure to undermine Russian morale just as Kyiv presses its offensive

— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) September 16, 2022

They’re calling them ‘bomb attacks’, so I’m guessing someone locally planted the bomb rather than firing a long range missile or artillery shell?

Germany found 50 Dingo armoured vehicles, two more Mars MLRS and 40 Marder IFVs down the back of the sofa yesterday. On Monday they couldn’t possibly spare any at all
The Marders will go to Greece (largest contributor to NATO by GDP) who will supply 40 of their Soviet BMPs to Ukraine, the rest will go to UKR directly

Reuters have picked up the Izium mass grave story

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-mass-grave-found-izium-where-russians-ousted-days-ago-2022-09-15/

rope around their necks and hands tied

How is all the backfilling accounted for in those bar graphs linked to? When Germany and others supply third countries, freeing up older and more easily integrated stock that then goes on to Ukraine… is that included in the figures for the third country, or the country that is doing the donating rather than swapping?

@kelvin I think that the whole contribution-thing is largely impenetrable to the casual observer, it would probably take a university project, similar to the Yale School of Management sanctions tracker.
There are numerous funds, e.g. the European Peace Facility (EPF), and other mechanisms such as your example
I’d be grateful to be proved wrong and be pointed to a one-stop site

This is significant

Extraordinary:

SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that now was not a time for war, directly assailing the Kremlin chief in public over the nearly seven-month-long conflict in Ukraine.

— Felix Light (@felix_light) September 16, 2022

India is one of the great military powers in Asia. Modri was not mincing his words here, which apparently unusual for his diplomatic style, and India has for a long time had a military partnership with Russia- maybe this is an indicator of a shift in their relations?

That is indeed a big deal, India get a pretty huge chunk of their military equipment from Russia.

With Russia’s previously iron grip over the central Asian stans melting away as their military reputation has evaporated you have to wonder whether or not India sees an opportunity to supplant Russia as the patron of some of these resource rich territories.

If so, this may their first move in a more confrontational relationship with Russia moving forward.

If they don’t get their skates on then China certainly will be more than happy to get in there first.

Exactly. I agree India most likely recognises China as it’s main rival for local socio-geographic influence now, and Russia’s clumsy and self-defeating invasion has dropped them down to somewhere near the bottom of their list of potentially useful allies

Indeed that is a change of wind from India…

*gentle whistling in the background *

‘the future’s in the air’

Did you hear Putin’s pathetic, (but entirely predictable) public response though. We’ll yeah, we want to bring it to a close as fast as possible, but the Ukrainians won’t negotiate.

Modi is quite the diplomat* managing not to call him a prick and just walk out.

*I’m sure there’s a lot else, less polite many would call him.

Taaaaake meeee to the magic of the moment on a glory night…

I take it you’ve listened to the wind of change podcast? (Guy investigates whether winds of change was a CIA soft power operation)