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Where are the estimates of UKR losses
They are difficult to find. The closest I have ever got was UK/US reports in Nov and Dec saying the combined losses of both sides was around 200,000 and at that time UKR was claiming 100k RU losses so about the same on both sides.
Horrific really:(
Putin/Wagner seem happy to get 1000s of conscripts, prisoners etc slaughtered to prosecute this mad war
but yes Ukranian lossess seem to be almost as high, hopefully with reduced artillery capabilities Russia can kill less
Does that 100k UKR number include civilians too? Obviously the Russian number won't.
I think the 100k number, if from the same source (a US General is quoted) it includes wounded.
Still horrific.
to put it in context UK deaths in WW2 was 380000 military and 67000 civilian including troops from te colonies. Thats in both the european war and the was in the far east
Politico are reporting multilateral political pressue being applied to Germany to allow/participate a coalition of Leapord users to re-export to Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-and-poland-push-germany-to-send-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine/
French official told POLITICO that Paris is turning the screws on Germany in the hope of extracting an agreement from Berlin to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine ahead of a Franco-German summit on January 22, the 60th anniversary of the Élysée partnership treaty between the two nations.Similar pressure is coming from Poland, which wants to form a broad coalition among Western partners to jointly hand over Leopards to Ukraine. “We encourage other countries to form a broad coalition for the transfer of more modern tanks to Ukraine, such as Leopard tanks,” Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabłoński told Polish public radio on Monday.
They have those planes. The Ukrainians who have roughly the same aircraft have been using them from improvised bases for most of the conflict.
The Russians dont seem to have effective stand off anti radar weapons which means the Ukrainians still have a lot of their heavy AA missiles still available
Thanks for explaining that, it seems to underline the point about mutually inclusive platforms being necessary to form a system.
Does the UK have "those planes"? They used to operate Harriers in the woods at RAF Wittering, does the F35 have that sort of capability?
There is a VTOL version of the F35. Can't remember if the UK bought any of those though.
We've bought the F35B short take-off, vertical landing (STOVL) version.
Some good videos on YT showing both capabilities.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1613181488341700613?t=fzEPlkHnOAWR99u0hzfuMg&s=19
Anyone seen verification of this?
This ^^^ is great news. Maybe all the stalling was over training....
If that's true, and from what was being said on Radio 4 last night, the German's must have granted an export license. Hopefully this means other countries and Germany will supply many more.
Looks like the UK will send some Challenger2 as well!
It's great that we want to send tanks but it seems they ideally need to stick to a single type if Ukraine is branching out from the old Soviet and Ukrainian stock they currently have. I can't see us sending many Challengers so therefore is it really worth it to train up the engineers just for a handful. Leopards on the other hand appear to be in numerous quantity, it just needed the various governments to be given a push. Maybe the talk of Challengers was to give that push and is mostly lip service so Germany will give the go ahead for the Leopards.
Leaopards also have an existing supply chain in Poland
President Duda announces that Poland will transfer 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
Maybe all the stalling was over training….
Training is (likely) mostly about getting the army in Poland up to speed on the Abrams going to them. Important that other countries don't weaken their own defences as they ship equipment to Ukraine. I know some people still believe that Russian state aggression will stay limited to Ukraine, often the same people that thought they wouldn't invade Ukraine (again), but Putin will jump on any weakness.
Reminds me of this little exchange...
newstatesman: WATCH: Boris Johnson claimed the days of big tank battles in Europe were over
Just 14? Hopefully the tip of the iceberg.
I can’t help feeling that for all that the Ukrainians need equipment, they are going to end up with a horrible mush-mash of different stuff. That must surely cause all sorts of logistical and training issues which will limit their overall effectiveness.
Yes, but it's better than nothing!! The obvious solution is to divide the kit up by units/Areas.
That’s a problem that other countries are taking on for them in the main. One of the reasons that kit from USA and elsewhere is going to European countries so that they can sent some of their own on… to reduce the variety going to Ukraine.
Big news
BBC News - Ukraine war: Sergei Surovikin removed as commander of Ukraine invasion force
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64235713
He's not going to want to walk past any open windows is he.
Quite!
There has been quite the revolving door for generals in charge of the Ukraine invasion, which speaks volumes about how badly it's going for Russia. I live in fear that the next one they appoint is going to be competent, and be able to leverage Russia's advantages in economic and miliary might to make progress in Ukraine, especially as they have a history of starting poorly and eventually succeeding, but so far each one has failed. It's starting to look like their whole system has been so hollowed out by corruption that it doesn't matter who's in charge.
With all the armoured vehicles being sent (like the Bradleys, etc), roughly how long would it take to get trained on using them,to be considered ready to use them in battle? I’m assuming it will be months before the Ukrainians can take them to the front?
(and separately, how long is the training a British soldier would have on a challenger or warrior or the other armoured vehicles before being considered ready?)
Surely they've done the training recently in the UK and other NATO bases?
20 weeks for drivers (Troopers), but that includes licence acquisition, driver maintenence, communications and learning to fight the tank. All based around no previous knowledge.
There are further courses for more senior personnel in terms of gunnery, loading and commanding the tank.
Similar courses exist for the Imfantry and other capbadges that operate armoured vehicles.
Training in the UK would be conducted at Bovington (driving) and Lulworth (gunnery). There always the plain for bigger formation training.
I'm sure more bespoke courses could be offered that capitalise on existing knowledge and skills.
I'm not sure how much truth there is in the CR2 chat, I'm pretty sure that the Dorchester armour is still very much restricted and carries significant security classification.
But who knows what will happen.
The politicians have obviously done their sums and decided that western MBTs won't upset the conventional weapons balance and precipitate an escalation
The Leopard 2 are the obvious fit in Ukraine because of the numbers produced and the number of European countries that could provide a few adding up to a decent-sized force. A single MBT sourced in Europe would also simplify logistics and the training of maintenance crews.
Challenger and Leclerc MBTs combined production totals about a third of that of the Leopard and both have been sold to only a couple of countries and would be much thinner on the ground.
Abrams production numbers is about 3x that of Leopards so maybe we'll see a few of those
(Thanks Wikipedia for the numbers used)
Abrams production numbers is about 3x that of Leopards so maybe we’ll see a few of those
The Abrams also uses a ludicrously complex and fuel-hungry gas turbine engine that is nothing like anything any Ukrainian techies have ever had to deal with, whereas the diesel powertrain on the leopard or challenger are going to take considerably less time to get their heads around.
Although I fully realise that the last 10 months have clearly shown that the average Ukrainian's ability to MacGyver their way to victory shouldn't be underestimated.
Good point here from Mike Martin who usually talks a lot of sense. Russians throwing everything at Soledar and Bahkmut for no particular reason other than being able to show a small victory. Ukrainians happy to let them expend huge resources for little gain while they wait to pounce elsewhere.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1613547734019018754?t=WB4cMHZZU_6IA4-RkPb6QA&s=19
Abrams aren’t heading to Ukraine, they’re heading to European countries so that they can forward Leopards and other easier to mobilise kit to Ukraine. I’m repeating myself now though.
Good point here from Mike Martin who usually talks a lot of sense. Russians throwing everything at Soledar and Bahkmut for no particular reason other than being able to show a small victory. Ukrainians happy to let them expend huge resources for little gain while they wait to pounce elsewhere.
Fingers crossed this is what is happening.
As for the 'Russians can use the mines as a warmer, drier base and storage for troops and vehicles' thought - I am assuming the Ukrainians know ever exit from the mines, and the full layout. It may be rather useful to effectively trap a lot of Russian resources in there temporarily.
It may be rather useful to effectively trap a lot of Russian resources in there [s]temporarily[/s] permanently.
FTFY
Considering that the Ukranians have at least 1 Pion 203mm heavy mortar active in the Soledar area I imagine they will have little trouble in doing so.
I would be very surprised if Ukrainian combat engineers hadn't left a lot of explodey surprises in those tunnels. Even if they haven't the Russians will have to assume they have and take a long time clearing them.
I would be very surprised if Ukrainian combat engineers hadn’t left a lot of explodey surprises in those tunnels.
A few bottles of Vodka left behind by the guards, with some polonium flavouring, could be effective.
Can we all take another moment to appreciate the Ukraine meme production. 👏
I have also worked out why the salt mines are so important to the Wagner generals.
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No windows
Can we all take another moment to appreciate the Ukraine meme production.
Yes, they are very good at it.
No windows but maybe plenty of long lift shafts instead (might be the wrong type of mine).
Videos showing Wagner PMCs getting surprisingly close to Ukr forces and then shooting them up.
Disturbing.
Talk of Wagner wearing Ukr colours and one video supposedly had the Ukr shouting "you're one of ours" just before being murdered.
It may be rather useful to effectively trap a lot of Russian resources in there temporarily.
Yeah I thought the same thing. Plus salt mines really can't be the best place to store already shonky Russian military equipment. (Never buy a second hand bike that's lived by the coast!)
branes
Full Member
It may be rather useful to effectively trap a lot of Russian resources in there temporarily.Yeah I thought the same thing. Plus salt mines really can’t be the best place to store already shonky Russian military equipment. (Never buy a second hand bike that’s lived by the coast!)
That's not the case. Salt mines are generally lovely and dry, otherwise they wouldn't have salt in them, it would dissolve.
I think there are some in the Peak area in the UK which are used for storage of documents and stuff.
Talk of Wagner wearing Ukr colours and one video supposedly had the Ukr shouting “you’re one of ours” just before being murdered
Ah, that explains that video. If Wagner are wearing UKR colours that also explains why they don't want any other Russian groups in the area 🙁
Yet another war crime to add to an already long list. 🤬
Sadly, they care not for the rules of war. Nor will they be held to account as Russia will NEVER comply with any tribunals.
Plus salt mines really can’t be the best place to store already shonky Russian military equipment
Salt mines are generally pretty good storage facilities.
In the UK there is Deepstore Records Management Facility in Cheshire which is used by National Archives and various other organisations for long term document storage.
Russia will NEVER comply with any tribunals
Well they would, but it would take a massive escalation (ie, WWII level of defeat) which is almost certain never to happen (and if their was such an escalation, I doubt any of us will be here to have a new version of the Nurenberg Trials).
Against a nuclear power that just isn't going to happen.
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Against a nuclear power that just isn’t going to happen.
Agreed. And apologies for typing 'their' rather than they're. I mean 'there' 😉
I don’t know if this has been posted already but after hearing the director interviewed on five live I’ve just watched this and it’s a must see documentary on iplayer
It’s both terrifying and really uplifting at the same time. Filmed on the frontline in Ukraine as they fight to retake Kherson, the spirit of these people - who are teachers, mechanics and policemen, not trained soldiers - is unbelievable! It’s inspiring stuff.
Lots of chatter that whilst the RF have been decimating themselves chasing a pyrrhic victory in Soledar, the UA is on the outskirts of Kreminna. As the main supply lines into Severodonetsk and the Northern Donbas go through here, Kreminna falling would mean that the RF would find it very difficult to sustain their presence in Severodonetsk, as well as Bakhmut and ironically Soledar too.
Now that the freeze is allowing much easier manoeuvre we can hope to see the UA make their superior weapons, training, tactics and morale count..
I don’t think Kreminna is so important supply wise since the fall of Kupyiansk in the Autumn when the train line from the north was cut. Supplies now flow westwards from Russia.
In many ways, the UAF successes make their job harder. The front line has shortened considerably, allowing more depth to the Russian defences.
Abrams production numbers is about 3x that of Leopards so maybe we’ll see a few of those
Abrams aren’t heading to Ukraine...snip
As I said a couple of days ago, "The Leopard 2 are the obvious fit in Ukraine...", however, although Germany has signalled that other nations can supply their L2s, Germany hasn't agreed to supply any MBTs from its national stock. I don't know whether this refusal includes parts, etc, but if so that would represent a significant problem.
Chancellor Scholtz hasn't publicly agreed to anything, his deputy handled that, although it will be difficult to climb down now
Germany has said that it wants to see agreement from Ukraine's main allies and, by any measure of quantity or $$, that's the US and UK. The UK has said that it could send 10 Challenger 2 MBTs and the US is yet to decide, although they are supplying Poland. There's a big meeting on the 22nd in Germany to decide
So, yes, as things stand a few Abrams would "free the Leopards". I think we're both in agreement that Abrams is too complex in a variety of ways
Yup, the Abrams is a hell of a machine but almost comically hard to keep on the front lines from a maintenance perspective. It's very much the product of a military that sometimes feels like an awesome globe-spanning logistics operation that occasionally shoots something.
Whilst I must say I was expecting to have seen it by now, I'm still anticipating something from the Ukrainians soon, all that new kit and trained troops they've received recently have been noticeable by their absence in the Bahmut/Soledar area, they're clearly being held back for something.
Now that we are sending challenger tanks surely the leopards will follow.
You'd hope so. UK has been considering sending Challenger all week, it's now formal...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-14-january-2023
Yeah watched that binners, it was amazing. I'm not sure if empathy is the right word bit you could recognise the characters amongst the motley crew of volunteers, people you know, people on here even, (especially when they were tired and squabbling amongst themselves!)
You could feel their exhaustion though and how mentally draining and psycologicaly traumatising it was for them, and you realised that the Russian strategy is relentless, throwing conscripts into the meat grinder on the crude basis that there are more of them than there are Ukranians, hoping that numbers will ultimately tell.
I suppose in that light we either support Ukraine with more effective equipment and resources or watch on until their capacity to absorb the relentless punishment dealt out to them eventually wanes.
It is the choice given to us by Putin.
Definitely one of the occasions I'm happy my assumptions were wrong.
Fair play HMG.
RUSI article in the Guardian pointing out that the western allies need to invest in building / modernising tanks, low loaders, bridging and breaching vehicles etc. to replace deliveries to Ukraine.
Personally, I think the UK should send 100 Challenger 2 plus associated vehicles immediately and accelerate the Challenger 3 program dramatically to replace them. The short term gap in NATO commitment can be covered by US units with Abrahms.
accelerate the Challenger 3 program dramatically to replace them
Isnt the Challenger 3 program a case of converting the existing challenger 2 tanks rather than new ones. So not replacements as such.
Whilst I must say I was expecting to have seen it by now, I’m still anticipating something from the Ukrainians soon, all that new kit and trained troops they’ve received recently have been noticeable by their absence in the Bahmut/Soledar area, they’re clearly being held back for something.
I think the tweet earlier about slow attrition of the Russians, coupled with some logistics organisation when it's not a mudfest, with a few rested troops means it's probably a time to not rush in. But, we're all waiting for the right alignment of stars to enable something to happen. 🤞
Personally, I think the UK should send 100 Challenger 2 plus associated vehicles immediately and accelerate the Challenger 3 program dramatically to replace them
BAE has sold up the last site that manufactured the C2 (Vickers). Losing capability and knowledge. So don't expect C3 to come any time soon. Look at the mess GD are making of FRES
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The company that bought the Vickers plant the Armstrong Works in Newcastle where the challengers where built has been awarded the contract to build the challenger 3 turrets
Yes I was aware of that... Unfortunately welding some plate and small machining on turret, is not the same as design,build and assembly of the complete vehicle, which is what used to get done at Newcastle.
Any way. Good news that these are being sent to Ukraine
Apparently we will be sending some apache helicopters as well.
Warsaw and Helsinki want to supply Leopard tanks but this requires approval from Berlin as Germany holds the export licence.
And according to Sky news, "Many of the UK's 227 Challenger 2 tanks are not in a condition to be deployed"
Apparently we will be sending some apache helicopters as well.
Source?
Given that they say this, I'm not gonna assume it's a reliable source.
The Apache choppers are equipped with the same engine as a Rolls Royce and can hit speeds above 180mph, whilst also carrying a range of artillery which can wipe out multiple targets in seconds
UK sending Apache helicopters with deadly missiles to Ukraine in 'game changer'
Well, there description isn't so much totally wrong as clumsy nonsense.
The Apache AH Mk1 is powered by two Rolls Royce-Turbomeca RTM322 turboshaft engines.
If we are sending them, usual intense training beforehand disclaimers apply.
It was not so much the Rolls Royce reference but this
carrying a range of artillery
Which set my teeth on edge. 'Artillery' my hairy arse!
Oh lord, I didn't see that. I did see my hideous use of the wrong "there" though. #theshame
MOD have apparently denied the Apache story. Seemingly Ben Wallace is going to make another aid announcement tomorrow which will clarify.
The rumour has got Igor Girkin and others pretty riled though.
14 Challengers and 30 Sp90 self propelled guns according to Sky News.
No mention of helos, they wouldn't send Apaches anyways. Too long to train, too unreliable, some have crashed, they need maintenance constantly. The WO had to be able to do some magic with their eyes to do with near and far distance iirc that only some people can do.
Wagner seems to have made some sort of gains toward capturing Soledar, but it seems to have seriously depleted them.
There's a lot of internal politics at play with Prighorzin desperate to prove his abilities
Not sure putin wants him to do too well though.
Implies to me that Russia may not be able to hold what they've taken if Ukraine can/want to launch a counter offensive there.
And while russias tactics of sending wave after wave of ill prepared conscripts at the front line, have seen insane losses, Ukraines losses have been pretty horrific too.
https://twitter.com/RiqaqAbdullah/status/1614397927715119104?t=_8ug2VEgvL-Cn7f17TqT7g&s=19
And according to Sky news, “Many of the UK’s 227 Challenger 2 tanks are not in a condition to be deployed”
We only need 14 working ones to send right?
Rheinmetal are saying that German Leopard 2’s will not be ready to send until 2024 🤷♂️ - again send the bloody working ones, each country that has them only needs to commit 10% of their force, for heavens sake 🙄 FFS - not as if Russia is going to invade aNATO country any time soon 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Politico reporting polling of EU public support for Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-europe-support-74-percent-polls/
Most people support the EU’s actions in spite of being aware of the war’s consequences on their daily life, with almost two-thirds of those polled believing their life will change because of the war in Ukraine.