Ukraine

Most importantly there need to be C to simply write down a few simple words ” Ukraine will NOT be a NATO member.

That’s irrelevant for a start Ukraine was never going to join MATO

Putin won’t give up his desire to conquer Ukraine if Ukraine pledges not tk join NATO

He just wants his Russia under his control

with Russia occupying Crimea and Donbass, but that’s realistically probably the best that Ukraine can hope for.

That’s pretty much what I said earlier and got roundly abused as some sort of appeasing coward.

Disagree though on military options being the only way. It can’t be, it will only lead to more escalation. How many atrocities will NATO stand by and watch from the sidelines? What happens when Russia starts attacking the weapons supplies? This only heading in one direction.

Someone said recently….

“If you’ve watched the TV mini series “Chernobyl” and the documentary “Icarus” then you know everything you need to know about how Russia operates, what it’s capable of and what they think of their citizens and of us. If you lived through the Collapse of the Soviet Union then you know full well that they didn’t just wake up one morning and see the errors of their ways…. it was forced upon them.

The monster was not killed, it was wounded and resting – only to wake up years later and carry on”

I can’t remember where I saw it but it stuck with me.

I shall leave you to your views.

I welcome this development and accept it as your acknowledgement that you’re unwilling to refrain from the type of daft whataboutery and non-sequitur that are beneath you, nor are you willing to provide any citation to support your opinions and as such you aren’t a serious contributor to this ongoing discussion.

Good day.

I’ve already said we should cut off all economic activity with Russia. As should all other western countries. We should also threaten sanctions against other countries who still trade with Russia. India and China mainly. If capitalism has one benefit it’s that the west has enormous economic power. We should use it. It’ll be far more effective than supplying a few tanks to Ukraine. But it will hurt, a lot, and we’re going to need to be pragmatic to mitigate the economic impact.

@dazh – I very much agree with everything you wrote here.

That’s irrelevant for a start Ukraine was never going to join MATO

Putin won’t give up his desire to conquer Ukraine if Ukraine pledges not tk join NATO

He just wants his Russia under his control

NATO needs to explicitly say that “Ukraine will not be a NATO member” rather than using unclear language.
He wants his buffer zone Ukraine under under Russian and his influence.
Putin has been very clear about this. i.e. Ukraine is his strategic location and should be under his influence.

I’ve already said we should cut off all economic activity with Russia. As should all other western countries. We should also threaten sanctions against other countries who still trade with Russia. India and China mainly. If capitalism has one benefit it’s that the west has enormous economic power. We should use it. It’ll be far more effective than supplying a few tanks to Ukraine. But it will hurt, a lot, and we’re going to need to be pragmatic to mitigate the economic impact.

Eventually, you will have to sanction at least half the world and with that you will see the start of two world systems that is East and West. Western influence on the other half of the world will be totally diminished if that is the case.

Western influence on the other half of the world will be totally diminished if that is the case.

Money talks. The west has more than Russia. China and India are not going to choose Russia over the west as an economic partner.

Money talks. The west has more than Russia. China and India are not going to choose Russia over the west as an economic partner.

That’s true about money and China but China’s objective is to be economy power to counter the West/US. The more money is pour into China the more powerful they will become and that will be problem in future. Much bigger problem.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01b3hkm/putin-russia-and-the-west-1-taking-control

It’ll be far more effective than supplying a few tanks to Ukraine

Sanctions are incredibly important – I wholeheartedly agree with you, but they are not a short-term measure. At the point that the Russian army is literally coming over the hill, on their way to your town to murder and rape your family – Denying them air superiority, and providing the Ukrainians with a way to stop Russian tanks is the only reason that the whole country isn’t currently under occupation and being brutalised.

I’m anti-war (as most people are?) but sometimes the only way out, is through.

Disagree though on military options being the only way.

The only way to prevent genocide by Russia against Ukrainians is if Ukraine is militarily powerful enough to defend its borders. That’s the brute reality of the situation. Putin is not going to abide by any peace treaty. Ukraine knows that and they will not surrender. With NATO supplying weapons, Ukraine should be able to force Russia back to Donbass and Crimea, but Russia will dig in there and I doubt Ukraine will be able to dislodge them so they will accept that as the best they can do. That’s not a peace treaty though, neither side will accept that as a permanent outcome do it will leave things in a stable situation with low-level skirmishes but no large-scale combat or atrocities. Realistically, that’s the best outcome we can hope for because Ukraine cannot invade Russia and Russia is not going to just give up and sign a treaty acknowledging defeat. Not supplying Ukraine with weapons will make the conflict longer and much more brutal than supporting them. NATO has been supplying weapons and Russia has not escalated against NATO so continuing to arm Ukraine is the least bloody course of action. NATO entering combat would be escalatory. NATO continuing to supply weapons is not escalatory.

Tbf dazh hasn’t really insulted anyone, even at the start when he was insisisting that Russia definitely wouldn’t invade

Not directly, its usually vague sweeping insults sent in a direction but not at a person and it may not even be intentional.

Not the only poster that does it either.

The other common one is “so I suppose you’re also ok with ….”

It’s one of the reasons why so many of these threads get turned to shit once the usual handful pile in.

The only way to prevent genocide by Russia against Ukrainians is if Ukraine is militarily powerful enough to defend its borders.

That’s the hard uncaring reality of it.

Anything else with Putin is secondary. This is a man who routinely murders internal opposition, not someone you can talk things through with and show the error of his ways.

I’d suggest my post is re-read, I didn’t say he insulted people, I said he pulls insults against him out of thin air.

Like my cowards reference, sadly time will no doubt reveal that much like in crimea and other areas, people will have sold out those pushing back.

War brings out the worst (and best) in people, but you don’t need to carry a weapon to embrace it.

FWIW I wasnt responding to your post

The mistake many make with this man is applying their own sense of fairness to him and thinking he gives a single damn about the laws of armed conflict and the associated conventions and conditions abided by others.

Trying to negotiate with a man and system that is happy to brutalise its own people without carrying an equally big stick is pointless. Sadly.

That’s the hard uncaring reality of it.

Anything else with Putin is secondary. This is a man who routinely murders internal opposition, not someone you can talk things through with and show the error of his ways.

Finland and Sweden are both considering NATO membership; the invasion of Finland by Russia is still in living memory.
If NATO membership happens then Russia has solid NATO from the Barents Sea to Belarus. Sweden doesn’t have a land border with Russia but has a long coastline on the Baltic Sea and in combination with Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Germany would almost completely control that.
Kaliningrad, which is an isolated Russian oblast on the Baltic Sea, is Russia’s only ice-free port, HQ of it’s Baltic Fleet, and a major Russian transport hub, etc.
Unintended consequences, or maybe membership of NATO for Ukraine EDIT and NATO’s expansion eastward /EDIT was nothing to do with it?

I think it’s time we stepped up the information aspect of this.

Wind up the transmitters, point them at key cities and broadcast the international condemnation, feedback, observers reports.

Don’t block the internal channels, just broadcast alongside. Ceaselessly, everything. Every bit of evidence, every judgement of putin from the International community. Live video from Satellites that are not secret.

thinking he gives a single damn about the laws of armed conflict and the associated conventions and conditions abided by others.

Of course he doesn’t give a damn about the Geneva conventions, they’re not worth the paper they’re written on.

The concept of the Geneva conventions always puzzles me. If we can have rules saying you’re not allowed to do certain things in war, why not extend those to not killing each other?

The concept of the Geneva conventions always puzzles me. If we can have rules saying you’re not allowed to do certain things in war, why not extend those to not killing each other?

Because killing people in self defence is legal, even in UK law, and that can include “proactive” defence, so it has to be the same in war.

The conventions are to protect noncombatants as far as possible.

The crime of aggression should be the big stick under international law, but countries like Russia don’t sign ip anyway.

This analysis is rather pessimistic about the chances of Putin accepting any meaningful peace treaty.

Less ambitious than the original plan…

but still indicative of a lack of troop-to-task reqt, log support planning, understanding of terrain & UKR Army, & knowledge of the capability of the UKR force.

I will predict – again – RU will be challenged with all this
6/

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) April 4, 2022

The RU forces – of various types – have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%…I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units.

This isn't a computer game, or stratego…those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another.8/

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) April 4, 2022

And those combatants who are wounded or captured. The red cross have been badgering the Russian military to collect their dead for quite some time now, but they’re not interested.

When they brutalise and dehumanise their own it speaks volumes and makes their denials of war crimes laughable (if it wasn’t so **** tragic).

The conventions are to protect noncombatants as far as possible.

Sadly, most Russians probably believe they are winning so they will not accept anything less than a clear victory. Even worse, I suspect Putin’s advisors are too scared to tell him how badly things are going so he probably thinks they are headed for victory too.

There appears to be a widening gap between what the Russian military can achieve at this point and the expectations of many Russians. The more Russian news presents a rosy picture of the war, the harder it will be for people to accept the likely terms of a compromise settlement. https://t.co/WQQcg7BXOY

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 4, 2022

The Russian dead need putting on a driverless train that chuggs slowly across the border, back into Russia…

The crime of aggression should be the big stick under international law, but countries like Russia don’t sign ip anyway.

Odd how history haunts the modern world. Crimes of aggression where pretty much first drafted and used at Nuremberg, and the Russians were certainly party to that.  I can recommend the Nuremberg Trail by John & Ann Tusa if you’re interested in war crimes trails and they difficulty they pose.

Really? It’s April 2022 and we still haven’t had an inquiry into the Sailisbury attack.

That’s a political assassination Not invading a nation. It happened a lot during the cold war.

Nope, it was a fairly clear statement that the normal bounds of operation had ceased to apply. My town was shut down for months, the army moved in to help with the clear up, places my little girl had played in days before were systematically removed. It was more of a terror attack really, especially after Dawn Sturgess died. She, by the way, was not a politician.

Problem is how does Ukraine deploy its remaining assets as effectively as possible.
Its a huge country with a border that musr be thousands of miles with Russia.
Move units away from Kiev and leave yourself open to counter attack?

Fortify say 100 strategic towns and try to grind it out, but we know the siege tactics the RU are happy to emply to reduce those to rubble.

Go head to head with specific units till they are combat depleted, then move on.

Secure air power, either airframes, Reaper drones, or more advanced anti air missiles. Reaper drones are exactly whats needed, but USA giving /selling them is goimg to raise the stake hugely.
The range and payload makes them the perfect weapon for removing armour from the battlefield. Them its down to manpower amd man portable weapons where, i imagine, the Ukrainian army would gain the upper hand.

I camt see peaceful resolution. The Russian army needs to be forced back into Russia with substantial losses to life and material, then the army need to have a 9mm chat with Putin.

Problem is how does Ukraine deploy its remaining assets as effectively as possible.

“remaining” is moot I think. Western Governments are flooding the place with weapons, I heard one MOD source saying that there are at least 3 anti tank weapons to every remaining tank, and they’re clearly getting real time (or as next to it as makes no difference) intelligence.

Move units away from Kiev and leave yourself open to counter attack?

With what forces will the Russians counter attack? The Russian advance to Kyiv has been beaten and the remains of it sent packing, I can’t honest see the Russians trying to re-take Kyiv at this point. Putin – if he talks about it at all, will just say it was a feint to draw forces away from the south. In the southern regions, there has been a low level insurgency going on since 2015 and the Ukrainians are pretty well dug in now – see how the Russians have been trying unsuccessfully to encircle the Ukrainians outside Mariupol for the last few weeks for instance and failing to do so.

I think the world both underestimated the strength of Ukrainian forces and over estimated the power of the Russian military

Money talks. The west has more than Russia. China and India are not going to choose Russia over the west as an economic partner.

Exactly. There was an economist being interviewed a couple of weeks ago who pointed out that China had watched with horror how easily Western companies disabled the smooth flow of commercial transactions in Russia. Once Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Applepay and Googlepay had disabled their systems within the country, you’re essentially back to a cash only economy

For a country like China who’s entire economy is based on the production and sale of fast moving consumer goods to Western Consumers, they won’t do anything that might slow their economic growth so won’t be paying anything more than lip service to supporting Russia.

The bottom line is that theres no way on earth they will risk jeopardising the ‘buy now’ button we all know and love, that props up their entire system

When they brutalise and dehumanise their own it speaks volumes and makes their denials of war crimes laughable (if it wasn’t so **** tragic).

The stories about how conscripts are treated, even outside of wartime, does show a level of utter contempt.

Once Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Applepay and Googlepay had disabled their systems within the country, you’re essentially back to a cash only economy

Not in China. None of the above are heavily used (visa and mastercard were only allowed to start operating a few years back and are really for tourists still). Instead its Alipay and Wechat on mobile and UnionPay for normal banking.

But what percentage of China’s economic transactions are from within the country, and what percentage is from outside, with the rest of the world? We live in a fully globalised world. When you hit ‘buy now’ on a website, theres a good chance that what you’ve just ordered is coming, directly or indirectly, from China

Companies like Visa and Mastercard placing ANY restrictions on the Chinese selling stuff to us lot will have a huge impact on their economy, and this economist was saying that the Chinese had been genuinely shocked at how quickly and effectively these Western companies had acted to effectively shut down retail consumer economic activity from Russia

They won’t openly denounce Russia, obviously, but they won’t be risking any overt support that might risk any form of economic sanction on selling stuff to us lot

But what percentage of China’s economic transactions are from within the country, and what percentage is from outside, with the rest of the world?

You have now switched to a completely different argument. This is where you get into a mix of Swift (which China has already been trying to develop an alternative model for) and then general international sanctions.
Which would, of course, damage China but and this is a big but it would also be crippling for whoever imposes them. Think about how we are excluding oil and gas for Russia and then think what would happen with aggressive anti China sanctions.

The ISW assessment: Here

Crucial next phase as Russia attempts an encirclement of the Ukraine forces in the east.

Their assessment of the Russian forces that have retreated from Kiev region: they are a spent force and likely combat ineffective.

Not in China.

The sanction that has proved most effective has been targeting Russia’s Forex reserves – It has those as the Rouble isn’t widely traded and isn’t commercially an asset, Russia hasn’t got much of an internal market (Long story short: Gangsters) and relies almost entirely on exports which it collects in Dollars or Euros to pay it’s debts.

China’s ‘s wealth is in part because it also holds vast Forex reserves. (it’s the largest holder of foreign debt). It has those as the Yuan isn’t widely traded and isn’t a commercial asset, China hasn’t got much of an internal market (long story short; Corruption) and relies almost exclusively on exports which it collects in Dollars and Euros to pay it’s debts.

China’s surprise/horror at the Russian sanctions that have been applied are well founded.

Problem is how does Ukraine deploy its remaining assets as effectively as possible.

Ukraine will have very detailed intelligence on Russian troop deployments from NATO. You can’t hide thousands of armoured vehicles, trucks, etc., so there’s not much chance of a surprise attack. My guess is that Ukraine will rotate units between frontline combat duty and reserve duties. Soldiers and vehicles need rest and maintenance or they lose effectiveness so a large proportion of troops will be available to deploy around places like Kyiv while they take a break from combat duty in the east.

Russia has a bigger problem. They just don’t have much in the way of reserves available right now. The new batch of conscripts won’t be combat ready for months and the troops who got thrashed last month won’t be effective until they get to take a break and replace all their missing equipment.

For a country like China who’s entire economy is based on the production and sale of fast moving consumer goods to Western Consumers, they won’t do anything that might slow their economic growth so won’t be paying anything more than lip service to supporting Russia.

That was my hope but the NY Times reports this morning that China is doubling down in saying it will support Russia. I guess if you have a quarter of the worlds population and access to Russias natural resources,you have dome leeway.

That was my hope but the NY Times reports this morning that China is doubling down in saying it will support Russia.

And they’ll carry on saying that. They have to. Theres no way they can say anything else. They’re certainly not about to suddenly start denouncing Putin.

But the question is what they are actually prepared to do

The bottom line is that the present system of International banking and trade is conducted in Dollars and Euro’s through western systems. And they’ve seen the the speed and effect that western financial sanctions have crippled the Russian economy by suspending and restricting access to those systems

China may have overtaken the west in manufacturing and exports but the way that trade is conducted is still dependent on those Western systems. And thats not changing any time soon.

If Putin is expecting any serious support from China, in anything but lip-service, he’s going to be disappointed

All China is interested in is continued economic growth and it won’t be doing anything to jeopardise that, especially something as daft as supplying a mad dictator with arms or resources and instantly alienating pretty much all their trading partners

I’m sure they will be quite happy to sit on the fence, keep their heads down and carry on playing both sides

The ISW article is interesting and has some credible contributors.

This:

Russia has a bigger problem. They just don’t have much in the way of reserves available right now. The new batch of conscripts won’t be combat ready for months …..

Where as the ISW article which suggests they are throwing anyone into the ring.

Russian efforts to generate reserves and replace officer casualties continue to face serious challenges. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that the Russian military is deploying students and educators at higher military educational institutions directly to Ukraine to replace mounting officer casualties.[4] The deployment of untrained officers—and more crucially educational staff—to the war in Ukraine will impede the Russian military’s ability to develop its next generation of officers for years to come.

Reminds me of the film, Enemy at the Gates and the scene where the Russian officer is shouting at recruits: “One man has a rife. The one without, follows him! When the one with the rifle gets killed, the one who is following picks up the rifle and shoots!”

My main rebuttal to that ISW article is not so much a rebuttal, but more a ‘so what?’.

The article insinuates that their officer corps is competent and that their orbat works effectively. From other sources, micro-management is rife with senior officers directing manoeuver to a level that is ridiculous and dangerous.

Tactically and doctrinally they’re appear to be a shower of shit, and that’s on a good day.

Their floundering is not just because they underestimated their opponent, but because organisationally they are pretty ineffective as a disciplined fighting force from basic drills, through knowledge of their craft to their leadership doctrine.

Before we even get to talk about the warfighting, seems the Russian military is it’s own worst enemy and meat grinder.

Doesn’t look like they’ve taken any lessons from their history of deployments at all, all the way back to WW2 at least.

@futonrivercrossing, that ISW report is interesting reading, thanks for sharing