Ukraine

My suspicion is the West / Nato has been supplying top notch recon to Ukraine

I would be amazed if it wasn’t.

West supplying a haul of modern weapons. Why wouldn’t it be served with ‘instructions’ in the form of coordinates and context? Just imagine the combined open source, human and technical intel the west can muster here.

Russia’s rout from West & North of Ukraine seems pretty disastrous, if they have to route through Belarus to reinforce Donetsk front that will leave the even more worn out.
Putin will want some kind from of result, soon, which can only mean an intensifying of long range artillery, missiles etc

Which implies more hypersonic missiles. Just the one so far – was that confirmed?

Edit: two apparently, both over a week ago.

Does no one else operate the Hind? Even off the books..?

They’re drafting in troops from tiny Georgia, so I imagine Putin will throw everything at Donbass to secure a win of some sort

Leaving the human tragedy aside for one second and thinking aloud.

I wonder what effect this will have on Russian arms exports?

I know a lot of Russia’s failures are at the human level but it’s not been much of a show case of their hardware either… Other than old school artillery or rocket trucks.

I never dreamt when this all began that Ukraine would have effectively fought a super power mafia state to a standstill in much of the country. Incredible whilst being such an unnecessary tragedy.

This is a really good article.

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-problem-with-the-donbas?utm_source=twitter&s=r

TL;DR:

Putin doesn’t want the Donbas without the rest of Ukraine. It’s messy and unstable and will be expensive to govern. He could probably have taken it at any time before now, if he had actually wanted to. And now he has half demolished it and pissed off the surviving residents. So if, as many suspect, he claims it over the next weeks or months, that’s in fact a bad outcome for him.

I wonder what effect this will have on Russian arms exports?

I have thought the same when reading about India in particular and how analysts were saying one (of several) reason they wouldnt go completely against Russia is how much of their military kit is Russian. Did think if I was them I would definitely be thinking about diversifying suppliers.

When Crimea was occupied it became the poorest region in Western Russia so for all its strategic and symbolic importance it is basically a money pit for Russian finances. Russia has poured a lot of money in over the last decade without much return, it used to be a popular holiday destination for Ukranians apparently but for some reason they haven’t been going there much these last 8 years…

I can’t see Putin extracting a lot of economic value from the Donbas and surrounding region. In that light I think Putin wants a significant part of Eastern Ukraine from which he can extract some economically valuable resources in order to justify ‘the special operation’.

I can’t see Putin extracting a lot of economic value from the Donbas and surrounding region. In that light I think Putin wants a significant part of Eastern Ukraine from which he can extract some economically valuable resources in order to justify ‘the special operation’.

Mineral rights, farming land…. Whatever financial benefits he might gain are totally and completely negated by the crippling effect the sanctions will continue to have.

I agree with why you are saying though bud.

I’m not really giving sanctions much consideration. Sanctions come and sanctions go. Should a resolution to this conflict come about then sanctions will most likely be eased and when that point comes I think Putin will want a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine for its agricultural value.

So whilst the narrative is that He’s backing away from Kyiv to focus on the Dobnas, we have to remember that he already has a good bit of the East and Crimea in his pocket and Mariapol has been flattened and ethnically cleansed.

I don’t think Putin is going to settle for what he’s got yet. I think he’ll want at least double the territory he currently controls before a settlement is achieved. We could see a shift of focus from cities to the countryside.

Putin doesn’t want the Donbas without the rest of Ukraine. It’s messy and unstable and will be expensive to govern. He could probably have taken it at any time before now, if he had actually wanted to. And now he has half demolished it and pissed off the surviving residents. So if, as many suspect, he claims it over the next weeks or months, that’s in fact a bad outcome for him.

Putin has unstable regions in a lot of countries (eg Transnsitria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia etc) and they haven’t bothered him so far, it’s a good question what makes Ukraine different- ie why did he invade this time? I would love to know!

American media reporting Putin likely to be suffering from thyroid cancer.

I wonder what effect this will have on Russian arms exports?

I think Russia is going to be flat out trying to replace their own losses, other countries will have to wait.

it’s a good question what makes Ukraine different- ie why did he invade this time? I would love to know!

Ukraine used to be a very corrupt country with close ties to Russia. It was pretty much a puppet state. Then the old autocratic government got run out of town and the Ukrainian people supported closer ties to the EU. Putin could not handle seeing a former close ally turn into a liberal democracy. He completely misread Ukrainian public opinion and assumed the president and cabinet would flee as soon as Russian tanks rolled over the border, then he would install another puppet government and things would go back to the way they were. In fact, “misread” is probably not the correct word, Russia apparently made no attempt at all to study Ukrainian politics and society, they just assumed that Ukrainians were the same as Russians. Hence the utter shock at being greeted with anti-tank missiles instead of flowers and parades.

I imagine that the Russian troops who got out of Ukraine alive will get the message that they are not safe anywhere close to the border.

A deep strike is meant to cause physical damage to the enemy, but it's also designed to cause increased fear, a feeling that no where is safe, & it sends the message " we will come after you everywhere, especially when you're not expecting it." 2/

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) April 2, 2022

Yep. Thinking dr dolittle raid on Tokyo after pearl harbour and the raf sending Wellington bomber to Munich in the early days of ww2.
Some effect but risky and more propaganda value. Brings it home to the people what’s going on outside their borders.
Will there be more? Hard to say but if 2 raids mean troops are held in defence of the motherland with sams then they cannot be deployed elsewhere.
Plus when ypur kit is frankly rubbish you need more to have any effect.
Then you will have scared Russian troops with access to booze who are disillusioned by the special operation and have spent the last month getting their arses kicked so hardly the A team.
Who probably could have driven back the rusks on their own with a Ukraine tractor, mig welder, can of propane and a nail guns

Thinking dr dolittle raid on Tokyo after pearl harbour

What a movie mash up that would be!

So, who was flying those choppers, eh?David Pross?

who was flying those choppers, eh?David Pross?

Does anyone know what this means?

American media reporting Putin likely to be suffering from thyroid cancer.

Hopefully the nastier version.

Is it fatal?
Does he have a Putin jnr lined up to take over?

Does anyone know what this means?

I do 🙂

It’s an obscure reference for sure, but the question stands…. Who do we think was flying the two helicopters that attacked the oil depot in Russia?

Both parties are denying it, to my knowledge.

An elderly Ukrainian woman baked a cake with poison, fed it to hungry Russians looting civilian homes and… killed 8 of them. https://t.co/giZTGkPPGb

— Amie Ferris-Rotman (@Amie_FR) April 1, 2022

Ukranian said special ops I’d guess
They’re just messing with Russians

Wow, Ukraine’s Mrs Kipling should apply for Putin’s death Star cafeteria.

April Fool I assume.

I do 🙂

It’s an obscure reference for sure, but the question stands…. Who do we think was flying the two helicopters that attacked the oil depot in Russia?

Both parties are denying it, to my knowledge.

I am glad that you know what it means.

For those of you too busy to Google it, he’s a fictional helecopter pilot of derring-do.

Ukranian said special ops I’d guess
They’re just messing with Russians

…. is my only conclusion

Both parties are denying it, to my knowledge.

Not exactly. The UKr  MOD statement said we can ‘neither confirm nor deny’, or words to that effect.  Meaning we did it, but we won’t be giving any details or discussing it to keep you guessing about when and where next.

Who do we think was flying the two helicopters that attacked the oil depot in Russia?

Both parties are denying it, to my knowledge.

The Ukrainians did it, there’s zero doubt about that. They’re just messing with the Russians. Their “denial” was something along the lines of, “What happens in Russia is Russia’s concern, maybe you should ask them.”

That cake story is dated 19 March, so it’s not an April Fool. But I don’t know how true it is regardless.

Putin has unstable regions in a lot of countries (eg Transnsitria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia etc) and they haven’t bothered him so far,

I’m not an expert on the Caucasus, but those areas aren’t considered part of Russia: they keep some ‘peacekeeping troops’ there but paying for roads, hospitals and police is someone else’s problem.

So with Donbas, either he gets a new bit of Russia, with all the costs of rebuilding and ongoing administration that go with it, or he declares that he has liberated the independent state of Donbas (which would make it a bit more like Abkhazia etc). Only, he’s been saying for years that he did that in 2014. So what has he achieved with this expensive war? The international community didn’t recognise it then and they won’t now. And public sentiment there probably hasn’t shifted in Putin’s favour thanks to this war. Whichever way you cut it, he’s made it worse for himself.

I’m not really giving sanctions much consideration. Sanctions come and sanctions go. Should a resolution to this conflict come about then sanctions will most likely be eased and when that point comes I think Putin will want a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine for its agricultural value.

Well colour me an idealist but to my mind sanctions stay tough until Putin gets his forces out of the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine entirely, giving up his previous incursions into eastern Ukraine and, yes, Crimea.

I wonder what effect this will have on Russian arms exports?

I think Russia is going to be flat out trying to replace their own losses, other countries will have to wait.

I think the question being asked was who will want Russian arms?

I think the question being asked was who will want Russian arms?

I get that, but keep in mind that Ukraine is using pretty much the same gear as Russia. It’s still quite effective when it’s used properly. Countries like India have a lot of Russian gear and are reluctant to become dependent on the West so it will be difficult for them to completely stop buying Russian gear. Problem for them will be whether Russia can actually supply what they want because Russia pretty much has to rebuild their army from scratch now.

It’s not a good sales pitch though is it? “Look, Ukraine is beating us using our weapons”.

India manufactures the majority of their own small arms. They’re moving to locally built AK203s and SIG716.

Artillery is a mix from various countries including domestic production.

The same goes for missiles, helicopters, radars etc. Some are domestic production, some are Russian, some Israeli etc. Tendency has been for India to move domestic production, they have the capability and lower labour rates than most countries they’d be buying from.

The Ukrainians did it, there’s zero doubt about that.

Cool beans

I think the question being asked was who will want Russian arms?

I read a piece that said Russian arms use a lot parts manufactured in Ukraine and they are having trouble sourcing spares at the moment.

My suspicion is the West / Nato has been supplying top notch recon to Ukraine

"The CIA director provided a vital piece of intelligence that helped Ukraine significantly in the first days of the war: He warned that Russian forces planned to seize Antonov Airport in Hostomel… and use it to fly in troops for a push to take Kyiv." https://t.co/VtO0WdAZdS

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) April 2, 2022

I’m not an expert on the Caucasus, but those areas aren’t considered part of Russia

Not officially part of Russia, no, but it is very much Putin’s MO to foment disorder and instability in his neighbours if they don’t offer him total allegiance. Hence the Russian support for the various breakaway states