My suspicion is the West / Nato has been supplying top notch recon to Ukraine and identified the oil refinery as a high value but vulnerable target. I also suspect Ukraine has been getting the best of western strategic and tactical advice.
I would be interested in an opinion on something from those with military knowledge if possible? I note Germany is no longer publibly reporting all the details of what weapons they are sending to Ukraine. I also read a report that it is suspected the Germans have / are sending a significant number of 120mm howitzers to Ukraine.
We have read about the “withdrawal” of Russian forces noth of Kyiv but as I understand it the Ukrainians were close to encircling approx 10k Rusian troops in that area. If Ukraine then got access to a reasonable number of 120mm howitzers from Germany, how many shells per day would they have been able to rain down on those 10k encircled Russians? Surely it would have been carnage for the Russians?