Ukraine

Good luck to your family and friends, hope they remain safe.

My money is still on the Russian army collapsing in the next three weeks. Hopefully without too much carnage on the civilian population

It’s the insulating from both parties.

I hope you’re not including me in this as I haven’t insulated anyone.

Good luck to your family and friends, hope they remain safe.

+1

I suggest to those who feel strongly enough to argue, put your feelings to good use and donate to the AUGB or the other associations then go and get some fresh air to defrag, knowing that you are completely free and safe, something simple that is just not possible for people in Ukraine now or for the foreseeable.

AUGB
Help Ukraine Emergency Appeal: https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine

Disasters Emergency Committee
UKRAINE HUMANITARIAN APPEAL: https://donation.dec.org.uk/ukraine-humanitarian-appeal

Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.

It needs moderating because there are plenty of people with interesting info and thought provoking opinions who get crowded out by the usual blowhards. It’ll be good for a few pages, and suddenly there’s 100 posts in a row by about 6 people dominating the whole thing, having much the same argument they had 30 pages back. It makes the thread less useful and less interesting.

My money is still on the Russian army collapsing in the next three weeks.

I’m sad to say I’d take your money…

The Russian Army has been ‘successfully’ shelling Mariupol for weeks now. Those guys firing rockets into the city and innocent civilians don’t seem ready to collapse.

Putin is also already hedging his bets by recruiting from Syria and Central Africa (see above), plus he has Wagner et al if things really go pear-shaped, so I’m afraid collapse is wishful thinking.

In the same way last week people were assuming that Russian convoy (which is now beginning to encircle Kyiv) would be a sitting duck… Most of it is still intact and its guns are already pointing at Kyiv.

Likewise. I can’t see how STW would benefit from closing it because things get heated. Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.

Because it’s not about legal complications, its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod. We are already trying to deal with those who are disrupting the thread.

its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod.

I hope you’re aware that most think all the mods do all day is sit around a table drinking tea and playing gin rummy. With the occasional, “They’re off again, who’s turn it is now”

😉

I am wondering how many artillery shells and rockets the Russians can actually supply, and continue to manufacture?

I cant be the only one who has been tempted to quote post two from the CV thread in here.

im concerned that while western governments have been reasonably coordinated in their sanctions approach, that international business wading into the situation is just removing the few face saving about turn options available to Putin..

its about the forum rules and the fact it’s requiring more and more of our time to mod. We are already trying to deal with those who are disrupting the thread.

There are individuals whose postings follow a relentlessly vexatious pattern to get a minor point across that ends up derailing the thread. They are not adding to the discussion just playing stupid pseudo-intellectual games to show the world how wonderful they are.
We all know who they are. Ban them for a week.

If the Russians are struggling with fuel and equipment and it is going to get cold those soldiers he’s going to bring in are not going to fair well. The cold will be well outside their normal operating conditions. It’d feel bloody hard for us to spend a day in. They, worryingly, need to be used in a shock and awe way and given they are also expendable it could get horrific.

We all know who they are. Ban them for a week.

Dare I ask who they are? I think you need to be specific as I don’t really know who you’re talking about. Seems to me all you’re doing is suggesting that people who disagree with you should be banned.

I’m actually wondering what the UK supplies are like of stuff like NLAWs and MANPADS – I fully support giving weapons to Ukraine but I’m hoping they’re replenishing stocks in the background in case things do escalate….

Also wondering if we or the US has a good surface-to-ship system that can be easily deployed and used with minimal training – those Russian Navy ships lurking off the Ukrainian coast would be sitting ducks (given they’ve already taken one out with MLRS) and would be far more of a loss and humiliation to the Russians than tanks etc.

Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….
EDIT just re-read it and they are going to be doing the distance between London & Kyiv not the actual route. As you were😐

Dare I ask who they are? I think you need to be specific as I don’t really know who you’re talking about. Seems to me all you’re doing is suggesting that people who disagree with you should be banned.

I think you probably know who they are. On both sides of the debate on this thread. And other threads.

And a week isn’t long enough. The mods have been trying to reduce their impact on the quality of the forum debates for a few weeks now, and they are just taking the piss.

I’ll take a month long ban if anyone finds this offensive.

Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….

Facebook suggested I might like to join the Ukranian Foreign Legion. Their algorithms are clearly not understanding how a keyboard warrior operates 🤣

Maybe if people find themselves having an endless circular argument on this thread they could take a break and move over to the ‘Tell me an interesting fact’ thread for a while.

Seems to me that thread was custom-designed for endless pedantic arguments.

Facebook suggested I might like to join the Ukranian Foreign Legion. Their algorithms are clearly not understanding how a keyboard warrior operates 🤣

have they got a cyber warfare division?

or a social media corps?

I am wondering how many artillery shells and rockets the Russians can actually supply, and continue to manufacture?

They are reported to have limited stocks of modern smart weapons. They will have huge stocks of old cold war stuff. Whether it’s been stored properly and hasn’t degraded is another question. That stuff won’t include modern smart weapons but I think Russia probably has enough artillery shells and rockets to level every city in Ukraine. Finding enough trucks and fuel to deliver it seems to be their most urgent problem.

I think you probably know who they are.

If you’re talking about dyna-ti and thols2 then I’d say their recent posts are fine compared to earlier in the thread so don’t see what the problem is. Anyone else cos I haven’t a clue? 🤷🏻‍♂️

Or is the suggestion that this thread shouldn’t have any discussion about the causes and wider political and economic issues of the war and instead just be somewhere where armchair generals can exercise their war fantasies from the safety of a keyboard? Maybe it’s just me but I’d much rather see reasonable debate about the issues than stuff like FuzzyWuzzy’s above going on about MANPADS/NLAWS/MLRS etc.

MANPADS

The UK system relies on a high level of operator training, it’s nigh on impossible to fire off the shoulder and hit anything

Defending key locations is what it’s good at but the ground defended area is small but that assumes guided munitions, it may do better against what is currently being used from the air

However it can hit out to 5km IIRC and will give the helicopter pilots a lot to worry about. FGA will also hate it but it’s designed to hit them head on not to chase

It was traditionally deployed with ADAS which is a great passive early warning system which I would have thought would be quite helpful as well

–

.

I’m hoping they’re replenishing stocks in the background in case things do escalate

I’d hope that manufacturers the world over can spin up production demand – or they’ve been building stockpiles for a while, probably since 2014.

Maybe it’s just me but I’d much rather see reasonable debate about the issues than stuff like FuzzyWuzzy’s above going on about MANPADS/NLAWS/MLRS etc.

I am absolutely not a war-whore, and I am stridently not into military anything. However I really value the input from people with armed forces and weapons knowledge and experience here because it allows me to make sense of what I am reading, and I am also looking for hope in the situation which does help my state of mind – however futile that hope ends up being. And the actual veterans we have here often seem to be the voices of reason, honesty, restraint and compassion. I wonder why that would be…

have they got a cyber warfare division?

or a social media corps?

Same thing innit.

Seems that Putin has called for foreign volunteers to fight for him in Ukraine. That’s interesting, it sort of backs up the narcissist theory (i.e. he just needs to be popular) because it would appear he can’t stand the fact that people are volunteering for Ukraine but not for him,

With all the talk about Putin may not want to stop with Ukraine and expans further I can’t help but remember some of my schoolboy reading of the Biggles books and in particular “Biggles sees it through”. Set in Finland and the Winter War (First Soviet-Finnish War).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

A few similarities.

That or he wants to keep some quality troops back out of paranoia and has had it pointed out to him his conscripts wont really cut it and even his autocratic powers might run into some issues if too many kids come home in body bags.
Hence hiring a bunch of battle hardened “volunteers” would be a better option.

Surely pootin wouldn’t compromise the containment of radioactive waste or fuel to invoke Chernobyl II? Mad people do mad things.

Reports of a Belarus false flag bombing of a village

Possible false flag operation: Two Sukoi Su-25 aircraft have just attacked targets in Ukrainian and then in Belarusian territory close to a border guard checkpoint in Ukraine’s Rivne Oblast.
This is potentially a Belarusian attempt to get a casus belli against Ukraine.

— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 11, 2022

Seems that Putin has called for foreign volunteers to fight for him in Ukraine. That’s interesting, it sort of backs up the narcissist theory

I just assumed that it was advance justification for bringing in people borrowed from his allies armies, like Syria.

This is Russia telling you right up front that Russia is planning to use chems and commit yet more war crimes. https://t.co/Bv7DEkbjtM

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) March 11, 2022

Instead of what? Armchair aid workers, wannabe geo-political commentators? How are any of you who think you’re having a highbrow conversation about something you also know very little about any better than those throwing their 2 pence into the mix about matters pertaining to the military aspects?

Facebook has just popped up with a request for donations for a sponsored ride from London to Kyiv. I appreciate the motives but….

What handlebar mount for a NLAW?

Who are most likely brutal bastards with even less regard for human life than most. I already dread to think the way any Ukrainian POW’s are being treated, with some of these irregular and volunteers in the mix it all starts to get a bit more murky.

Hence hiring a bunch of battle hardened “volunteers” would be a better option.

There’s no way GoPro haven’t done an adaptor for that surely?

What handlebar mount for a NLAW?

The issue is that it’s a false narrative, NATO doesn’t force countries to join it. The sovereign state applies, usually waits a few years then gets in.

NATO membership requirements are tough for the former Soviet bloc countries

I am certain that Russia has a expansionist strategy, it regularly deploys it’s military and paramilitary forces to satellite states to maintain a sympathetic leader in situ. Examples Belarus and Kazakhstan etc

This, in my humble opinion, sums it up succinctly. Ukraine has been an independent country for around a thousand years, since Vikings arrived and settled. AFAIK, Moscow wasn’t much more than a village when Kyiv was a city!
It’s a fact that NATO doesn’t go to a State or Country and say “we want you to join”, a country has to express a desire to join, then go through an extended process afterwards, as stated above. Otherwise, I’m pretty damn sure that Finland and Sweden would have been members long before now, purely because of their geographical location, in particular Finland who fought off the Russians quite successfully about, what, a century ago? Can’t remember, but Russia had its ass handed to it on a plate, something that Putin ought to be reminded of, as much of Finland’s army were armed civilian volunteers – a parallel with Ukraine. #WinterWar

@cheburaska🇺🇦  – My heart goes out to you and your friends and family in Ukraine; having lost someone I loved suddenly almost exactly a year ago, I’ve discovered what grief really feels like, but I can’t even begin to comprehend how it must be for you! I just don’t have the words available to express my sorrow for your situation, I can really only hope that they’re safe now, and can find safety as soon as possible. My very best wishes to you and yours. 🌻❤️🇺🇦

Russia’s uncle fester is currently telling the UN all about the chemical and biological weapons they’ve found in Ukraine. Birds being trained to spread the contagion.
Not sure how he can look at himself in the mirror at night.

Thanks CZ, and everyone else, your thoughts are appreciated. They are relatively lucky compared to some over in Ukraine. But they’re certainly not in a safe place, they have no option to leave and there have been many very frightening moments and some close calls.

War is always ****.

And I apologise, not been functioning quite right recently – I must add that am very sorry for your loss CZ.