Ukraine

So if, which regrettably seems likely, Putin does integrate Ukraine back into Russia

I don’t think that’s what’s going to happen. I suspect that this will become an occupation (like Iraq) drag on and on for years until the Russian have made southern Ukraine a wasteland,  declare “mission accomplished” or some such horse shit and retreat back to Crimea. I’ll give it 5 years.  Ukraine will have joined the EU and it’ll take billions of euros and dollars to rebuild. Any Russian economic gains in the last 20 years will have been wiped out and it will also take decades to recover. In the meantime  1000’s will have died.

Congratulations Putin

That statement says quite enough about the failed reasoning of your argument

Care to elaborate? Given what we know now do you still think the 2004 and 2014 revolutions which were supported by the west were a good idea? Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?

retreat back to Crimea

If an independent Ukraine exists at all at the end of this war, it will be smaller than before, and continually watching and waiting to lose more territory.

[ really hope I’m wrong ]

As for EU membership for a smaller Ukraine… 25 years at least… if at all… but if they loose all their sea access because there is a “New Russia” across the whole of the South, then EU markets and support will become essential for survival, not just prosperity.

When the war is over and the sanctions start to be lifted I take it the bad guys will get their money back.

Well this isn’t good

So it looks like Russia is forcing Lukashenko, who’s now in Moscow, to join the war.

Putin also mentioned sending volunteers to fight against Ukraine, primarily from Assad’s Syria.

— Oleksiy Sorokin (@mrsorokaa) March 11, 2022

But might not be smooth sailing

According to Putin's plan, Belarus’ troops had to enter Ukraine a week ago. But something went wrong. Some officers resigned, some fled Belarus and contacted us. Conscripts are massively fleeing. Apparently, some generals opposed the participation of Belarus in the war. pic.twitter.com/a4xN6GaQqk

— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) March 5, 2022

Given what we know now do you still think the 2004 and 2014 revolutions which were supported by the west were a good idea?

How are you deciding that protests started by citizens in a country a good or bad idea? You think they should weigh the pros and cons beforehand? that they have a crystal ball that allows them to see what’s going to happen in the future?

Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?

So we just allow Putin to do what he likes regardless of what Ukraine decide (and they had started the process to join) Do you think Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Hungry the Czech republic, Slovakia regret turning towards the west right now?

Can we please keep this thread a civil discussion. If not it will be closed. Thanks.

I think its fair to say that this war will change both Ukraine and Russia.

Russia is likely to be far less of a threat potentially after this, particularly if it turns out to be Afghanistan 2.0 which is looking very likely. That plus the huge economic deterioration to come will leave Russia in a very poor state. Ironically Putin might get his USSR back… but at the stage it was when it was crumbling and people were queueing for bread.

Both Ukraine and Russia will be diminished. However money is likely to flow into Ukraine. That less likely to happen in Russia.

One way or another this will be the defining moment for Putin and I can’t but help think it’s the biggest mistake he’s ever made.

Surrounding himself with yesmen hasn’t been the best plan

Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.

— Andrei Soldatov (@AndreiSoldatov) March 11, 2022

Dazh : Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?

If that is the case then why did Russia not invade the former countries of the USSR who have joined Nato/forged closer ties to the EU?, your apologist argument falls flat.

In 1997, three former Warsaw Pact countries, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, were invited to join NATO. After this fourth enlargement in 1999, the Vilnius group of the Baltics and seven East European countries formed in May 2000 to cooperate and lobby for further NATO membership. Seven of these countries joined in the fifth enlargement in 2004. The latest waves of expansion saw 4 Southeastern European states join; Albania and Croatia joined in the sixth enlargement in 2009, Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020.

Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?

The problem, I think, is with the deranged dictator, not with the encouraging of ex-soviet states to look westward. After all Russia itself has been encouraged to embrace westernism as the pull out from Russia of a myriad of western companies indicates. Putin himself and his oligarchs have embraced capitalism and western luxury (although they’ve gone down the organised crime route).

For all the arguments I can’t see beyond Putin as the problem. We’ve been watching the “Putin, a Russian spy story” documentary on All4 and the guy is an absolute evil monster (but very clever one as well).

<strong class=”bbcode-strong”>Can we please keep this thread a civil discussion. If not it will be closed. Thanks.

@Drac

It is being civil, or at least one side is being civil, the other is spitting insults back, ignoring debate on the subject rather to throw out their choice phrases in petty personal attacks.

#Useful Idiots

#Putin apologists

#
Get back under your bridge troll.

I have seen no such insults being thrown out by the side(if you really really want to call it a side) stating that the situation has been exacerbated by NATO expansionism.

I suppose I should put my hands up when i made comment about how Britain took over India, or Germany, the French gained territory in Africa or South America when i quipped about Hitler and Germany’s method that started the 2nd world war. But it was Binners and Kelvin, who then attacked me not on this point, and nothing to do with Hitlers actions or how Great Britain conducted it’s foreign policy centuries ago, but straight in there with a personal attack on how i must be in support of this proposed genocide(though for the life of me i cannot equate that phrase to the definition of the word to the actions of this war)

Want to point to the troll, Then look no further than those quick not just to criticize,but quick to insult, and using that as an attack. So please attribute blame where blame is due and if anyone is derailing this thread it is those with closed minds and big mouths.

I was on my ‘Break’ when the ‘oh lets be nicer to everyone’ thread came, and then went, with the same voices here that derailed that totally to the point it was shut down. If that is indicative of how certain members of this community feel they need to conduct themselves,then this community are better off without them. They are a taint to any community.

Kelvin spoke about how he protested against the war in Iraq, and for that we should all applaud such public actions, but then to fail to see that his going against public or government narrative would mean he faced the same insults and attacks he himself is directing at people who in this thread question the narrative, leaves me speechless.

.

To be able to debate the points you need to accept they exist. Peoples ideas or perspectives can be changed through clear and concise argument, by reference of history, but never ever by insulting them.

It’s the insulating from both parties.

Ahh opinions causing problems Oh the irony

I wonder how much those Syrian volunteers are being paid (or what Assad is getting paid which they wont see).
I am not aware of any real reason for them to be volunteering unless there has been lots of preparation work with propaganda which then has the problem of what happens if when it doesnt live up to it.

This conflict somehow seems to have united the whole country, yet some people on here still find something to argue about.
Strange.

Anyone care to define the phrase ‘puppet state’?

Generally one which is completely under the control of another state with everything bar minor decisions being made by that state.
Belarus is a good example.

stating that the situation has been exacerbated by NATO expansionism.

The issue is that it’s a false narrative, NATO doesn’t force countries to join it. The sovereign state applies, usually waits a few years then gets in.

NATO membership requirements are tough for the former Soviet bloc countries

I am certain that Russia has a expansionist strategy, it regularly deploys it’s military and paramilitary forces to satellite states to maintain a sympathetic leader in situ. Examples Belarus and Kazakhstan etc

Anyone care to define the phrase ‘puppet state’?

A Russian MP on the BBC World Service was talking about a puppy state. I think I prefer that idea.

This conflict somehow seems to have united the whole country, yet some people on here still find something to argue about.

There is plenty of pro Russia, pro Putin stuff out there, notably from a number of academics as well as the usual suspects

Can we please keep this thread a civil discussion. If not it will be closed. Thanks.

Mods/Drac

Please don’t close the thread, this is a vital topic that needs to be open and there is a lot of useful information here for mostly silent observers like myself.

If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.

Either people around the world love Putin so much they are prepared to die for him or Putin is utterly desperate and is calling in debts from his dictator buddies.

And looks like Putin is also getting Africans… to go and fight in a white man's war…this clip from the Central African Republichttps://t.co/7L7WJ266zQ

— Metal Dog ?? ?? (@XVIVLXX) March 11, 2022

Over in Retrobike, we have many members spread throughout the world, but one particular group from the Ukraine. they appear to be quite a crazy bunch.

They’re really into their old bikes, roast pork and strong drink, and have been posting since 2018.

They post plenty of pictures and also videos of day rides, and broken bikes :lol: but it worries me that many of these riders instead of holding an old set of XT wheels are now holding an AK47, or for than matter might even have died. I truly hope to god they all come through.

https://www.retrobike.co.uk/threads/ukrainian-oldschool-mtb.387517/

Bloody hell ^^

Most of the commentators I have read on this subject don’t distinguish academia from the other professions practiced by the “usual suspects”.

Mods/Drac

Please don’t close the thread, this is a vital topic that needs to be open and there is a lot of useful information here for mostly silent observers like myself.

If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.

Agreed. There is huge value on this thread. Most of us know our inputs aren’t going to change anything, and recognise that we don’t have any special insight. But it is a valuable release of the tension we are all feeling and every now and then, someone does post something genuinely valuable or thought provoking. It is just ordinary people on a forum about bicycles expressing their fears, worries, ideas but there is therapy and value in that. Most people know how to behave, it is the same 3 or 4 people who derail it every single time. Ban them (again) but perhaps for a decent amount of time. Please don’t chuck the baby out with the bath water by closing this thread.

I think there is never going to be any change in stance between those on here that think NATO has played a part in Putin invading Ukraine and those that simply see it as Putin’s war based on his own megalomaniac agenda.

That argument will never resolve itself on here.

I’d prefer it if the discussion was simply about the terrible conflict going on right now in front of us angry day on TV and the likely outcome. Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.

It’s the insulating from both parties.

Perhaps it is those with lofty ideals.

.

Ahem.

Anyone wondering about the independent status of Ukraine might like to read Ukraine and the United Nations

Spoiler – It’s an independent sovereign state.

If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.

Definitely this. There’s 2-3 posters on both sides of the debate who don’t seem to be able to express disagreement without a sneering tone that just isn’t quite enough to make me hit the report button, and are utterly incapable of accepting that someone has a different opinion that they don’t like and default to attack mode.

I’d happily like to have a month of not having to put up with that on this thread, and on the others that they play on.

Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.

Ukraine is not going to surrender and not going to accept anything less than evicting all Russian troops from Ukrainian soil. It hope this report is accurate and that Russian military capability collapses. The faster Russia loses, the fewer people will die.

Ukrainian army is reporting that parts of the Russian forces are no longer capable of conducting offensive operations and are being pushed back in disarray. https://t.co/rPjFqdUDFS

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) March 11, 2022

@poopscoop Agreed:

I think there is never going to be any change in stance between those on here that think NATO has played a part in Putin invading Ukraine and those that simply see it as Putin’s war based on his own megalomaniac agenda.

The challenge comes with the second part of your statement:

Plus ways of potentially stopping this totally unnecessary waste of life.

Either Putin stops and rolls the tanks (and chemical weapons) back to Russia OR Ukraine gives in and subjugates its population to Russian totalitarianism, appeasement and frankly a miserable, deprived socio-economic future. Not to mention the risks that will be created as Putin will feel even more emboldened to expand elsewhere – I’d predict somewhere along the Baltic coast FWIW.

There really isn’t a middle path to end suffering at this stage. Ukraine has already ‘lost’ and will continue to lose one way or another. thols post above seems like a reasonable assessment as it stands.

I’m going to call now that the Russians will use chemical / WMDs in Ukraine. We didn’t do anything when the red line was crossed in Syria, so Putin will go ahead again now.

Mariupol is already a second Aleppo and Kyiv will be laid siege within the coming days. WMDs will follow soon after.

This all goes back to the point that the ’causes’ of the war can’t be agreed upon.

So personally, I’m going to keep pushing the Putin is at fault argument.

But I accept that others genuinely believe that NATO is somehow to blame.

I will never agree with them (as you say)! And that’s because I think letting Russia take Ukraine will not give peace and stability in the short, medium or long terms.

If it continues to descend (once again) into bad behaviour I (and I think many others) would prefer you ‘sanction’ the offenders or send them to the naughty step and let the thread continue otherwise we all lose out.

Definitely agree.
Descenting opinions are a good thing, and do make us question our own opinions about certain matters, but we need to stick to the ‘play the ball not the man’ approach. There are a minority spoiling it for everyone and drowning out the sensible discussions.
Don’t say ‘this poster is an idiot’, say ‘I think this post is incorrect because of this evidence and here is what I think could be a better interpretation which is supported by this evidence’, it’s really not difficult.

^^ I really hope that’s the case thols2
but I can’t help thinking the end game is coming for Kyiv.

It’s being surrounded and will be turned to rubble/ laid siege to. A 20th century approach with 21 century weapons. Brutal.

According to the BBC though the large Russian convoy has redeployed as a possible prelude to an attack on Kyiv – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60702464

How does NATO work, is it an “exclusive/or” club or can member states form additional treaties outside of the NATO remit?

What would happen if a mutual defence pact of ex-soviet states formed, including some that were in NATO, and became engaged in Ukraine?

Do you think if NATO and the EU hadn’t encouraged Ukraine to move westwards that the Ukrainian people wouldn’t now be at the mercy of a deranged dictator with the worlds second largest war machine at his disposal?

No Ukraine would be like Belarus or even subsumed into a “Greater Russia”

I’m going to call now that the Russians will use chemical / WMDs in Ukraine. We didn’t do anything when the red line was crossed in Syria, so Putin will go ahead again now.

What do the West do then?
If there is a chemical attack in Mariupol which kills 30 people, do we respond?
If it kills 1,000?
If Putin thinks the war is lost and takes an ‘if I can’t have it no one will’ approach and uses a nuclear weapon against Kyiv?
What if the West do respond, is that WW3? What if they don’t, is that carte blanche for him to do literally anything short of attacking a NATO member? Or would he then think he could attack a NATO member having proved he is willing and capable of using these weapons and we dare not respond?

Please don’t close this thread. From a selfish point of view – I have loved ones over in Kharkiv, the last 2+ weeks has been a living nightmare, and as you can imagine it is a thousand-thousand-fold for people over there.

There are not many sources of information that are easy to deal with at the moment. The majority of my actual information is from directly speaking to people who are sat frightened in their homes (or other people’s homes) listening right now to Russian shelling and bombing, gunshots and planes, while their children are frightened senseless. I hope to come here to see reasonable posts, find a little information from people who know a little more than me or are better connected.

Arguing and point scoring does not help anyone. I suggest to those who feel strongly enough to argue, put your feelings to good use and donate to the AUGB or the other associations then go and get some fresh air to defrag, knowing that you are completely free and safe, something simple that is just not possible for people in Ukraine now or for the foreseeable.

Please don’t close this thread.

Likewise. I can’t see how STW would benefit from closing it because things get heated. Provided it’s not breaking the law I struggle to understand why it needs moderating at all.

I even wonder of Putin will attempt to install a puppet government into Ukraine now.

How long would their life expectancy be with a hostile population and many, many munitions in their control.

I think he’ll try to rule it as a province of Russia but even then it will require a huge and constant military presence.

As always, getting out of Ukraine will be much harder than invading it.