Ukraine

In the situation where the conventional forces are spent, I don’t see a withdrawal, I see tactical nuclear “battlefield” or chemical weapon deployment.

Russian clearly looking to destroy what they can in Ukraine, not the strategy you would expect from a force intent on occupation, more one where they want to secure a land bridge to Crimea and leave a derelict wasteland of Eastern Ukraine to act as a buffer zone as part on a negotiated ‘peace’ treaty. Radiation leakage from Chernobyl would also add to the mess. Clearly RF forces didn’t expect a level of resistance and with an ongoing insurgency the level of effort to occupy/secure the area will put a massive ongoing strain on logistics/supply lines. Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.

I see tactical nuclear “battlefield” or chemical weapon deployment.

Why d’you think that?

In the situation where the conventional forces are spent, I don’t see a withdrawal, I see tactical nuclear “battlefield” or chemical weapon deployment.

Its widely reported that the Russian doctrine is of course “escalate to deescalate” that unfortunately this is a real possibility until Ukraine agrees never to join NATO and to hand over territory to Russia. Zelensky has indicated that they are closer to that than the West realises, whilst at the same time banging the “we will never surrender” drum with the West. Putin will keep hammering him until he capitulates.

I’m sure Putin’s telling him “it’ll not stop until you agree, and they (the West) are not coming to your rescue”.

Why d’you think that?

Syria.

Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.

Doubtful, as I don’t think anyone in NATO is in a hurry to do anything that would give Putin an excuse to attack NATO members.

More likely passing Ukrainian with a mobile phone.

The Russians shared some photos as a form of intimidation I guess which might not have been the smartest move.
Having troops on the ground would be rather risky although I suspect there is some careful sharing of info from all the intelligence planes hanging around the border. Although even there would have to be careful since they could then become targets.

So I heard on R4 this morning (James Heappey from the ministry of defence) that:

1) Yes, there’s a problem with the UK’s processing of Ukrainian immigrants (OK sure, but why are you talking to the armed forces minister about this?)
2) Partly it’s due to laws / political willingness, but also a lack of staff to deal with immigration applications. (Hmm, surely the latter is only relevant when the former is sorted? Where’s all this going?)
3) The MoD are ‘happy to help out’ by processing applications for immigration. They could, for example redeploy their staff. (That’s nice I suppose, but can soldiers process paperwork?)
4) This would make most sense if it was done near where the immigrants actually are. In Poland. (Oh. That’s where you’re going with all this.)

Which sounded an awful lot like there was a plan to deploy troops in Poland.

There’s a single paragraph about it HERE.

Armed Forces Minister James Heappey told BBC Breakfast the Ministry of Defence had offered to assist the Home Office with the visa process, although the countries where application centres are set up would have to approve British troops being sent to help.

Although this made me laugh.

I agree, gravy on chips is a travesty.

(That’s nice I suppose, but can soldiers process paperwork?)

The army is very good at paperwork, they have an entire unit for paperwork

They did it in Afghanistan, they are far more motivated than the average civil servant, unless they are the RAF ;-)

The army is very good at paperwork, they have an entire unit for paperwork

Nearly one of those things is true.

Syria.

neither of those sorts of weapons have been used in Syria by RF forces have they?

A satellite recon would spot choppers and one phone call could get drones or artillery on the way pronto
Ditto AWACs surveillance planes at 40,000 ft

Does Lavrov actually believe what he is saying?

Not sure why the “what sort of person…” thread was just closed (except to reduce number of Ukraine threads, maybe – please delete if the whole subject is off-limits for some reason) – I thought it was an interesting question, as there was an article in the local paper yesterday about an ex-Royal Marine who’d done just that (could understand a single, adventurer type going but this chap apparently has a wife & 3 kids!)
Then I googled it & the Times reckons appropriately experienced mercenaries are being offered up to $2k per day, which is a possible explanation.

I agree, that thread is different to this thread and responses to both will get diluted now.

Does Lavrov actually believe what he is saying?

Of course not. Words are just weapons for guys like him. Truth has no relevance.

Not sure why the “what sort of person…” thread was just closed (except to reduce number of Ukraine threads, maybe – please delete if the whole subject is off-limits for some reason) – I thought it was an interesting question

Same here. I think it’s more nuanced than a lot of people automatically assume.

zilog – likewise – I also read yesterday of an ex forces homeless guy who would quite happily go as he’s nothing to lose here and would actually feel valued there.

20 helicopters, did I miss something?

Also, just spending a bit of time on Google Earth. How long typically before post-invasion imagery appears on there?

Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.

I doubt it, can you imagine what would happen if any were captured? Retired soldiers going on their own initiative is one thing, army regulars is another.
Actually, someone like the SAS or US Delta Force is probably a big no no, would the French Foreign legion for example be able to get away with it, more plausible denial? The FL have already released all theirs Ukrainians to return home but there must be dozens of other nationalities there.
As someone said above, a local with a telephone is more likely, the populous will be keen to do all they can to help out and pass info to those who need it

UK SFO are often “retired soldiers”, as in ex-army personnel, with surprisingly good pensions, and an usual history of training with the RAF regiment.

UK SFO are often “retired soldiers”, as in ex-army personnel, with surprisingly good pensions, and an usual history of training with the RAF regiment.

The rock apes aren’t part of the army though.

Lavrov bought his step daughter a $4m flat in Kensington 😳

Polina is the stepdaughter of Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov. Yes, THAT Lavrov. He is one of Putin's closest allies, his loyal talking head full of hot air and now also a war criminal. pic.twitter.com/4hBdamPqty

— Maria Pevchikh (@pevchikh) March 10, 2022

Also expect there will be quite a few NATO Special Forces operatives in theatre assisting the Ukrainians with intelligence – those 20 helicopters destroyed on the ground wouldn’t have been spotted by chance.

My assumption was that NATO would be providing intelligence to Ukraine but it would be stuff gathered electronically. NATO will be training Ukrainians as well but that can be done outside of combat zones. There’s no reason for NATO to have troops in the combat zones, the Ukrainian troops seem to be very capable and their intelligence gathering can be passed back to NATO for analysis. One of the big advantages that Ukraine seems to have is that NATO supplied encrypted communications equipment (and night vision gear, etc.) That will allow Ukraine and NATO to cooperate on intelligence gathering and targeting information.

Actually, someone like the SAS or US Delta Force is probably a big no no

Serving soldiers from the UK would be in the shit (prison time most likely) if they went to Ukraine to fight. I presume same for US army personnel as well.

neither of those sorts of weapons have been used in Syria by RF forces have they?

Chemical weapons were used in Syria. I doubt solely by the Syrians.

Caught part of the Politics Show at lunchtime – Lord Vaizey(?) adamant that the Ukraine crisis needs to kick-start a fairer way of helping refugees reach the UK. Was then challenged to confirm he’d be voting against the Nationalities and Borders Bill or whatever its called, cue lots of waffle and “thats different”

Just saw an interview in English with Zelensky on sky news. He talks exactly like Borat. He should stick to Ukrainian from now on I think.

Just heard BBC news on R6 from this morning (listening again). Mention of the Mariupol children’s hospital bombing, war crimes etc. Then at least as long a “right to reply” statement from Lavrov via a translator, saying it was Azov in there and that news is being manipulated.

WTF?

Is that “for balance”?

I’ve just found out that Putin is referred to as Poutine in France, presumably because ‘putin’ is a very common general purpose medium grade swear word along the lines of ‘bollocks’ and it actually means whore. One would assume they changed the spelling to avoid embarrassment, but they should probably change it back.

On the other hand, his real name isn’t written as Putin because it exists in Cyrillic.

EDIT perhaps this should be on the interesting facts thread but of course the Latin alphabet doesn’t have the same pronunciation the world over, and Soviet era passports used French transliteration of Cyrillic so maybe it was always Poutine on his passport.

WTF?

Is that “for balance”?

Exposing lies perhaps?

Also, just spending a bit of time on Google Earth. How long typically before post-invasion imagery appears on there?

The more detailed footage is primarily from planes. So would need to wait until its safe again. Although that said the satellite footage has been improving.

I’ll just post this again as the director of ‘Winter on Fire’ is presently being interviewed by Nihal on Five Live (well worth a listen on BBC Sounds). This really is a must watch. It’s a detailed account of the brutal behaviour of the pro-Moscow Ukrainian government, which led to the revolution of 2014 and then the annexation of Crimea.

It adds a lot of context to the present situation and its just a brilliantly made documentary. Its available for free on Netflix or the full film is on YouTube

..deleted. wrong film.

but an interesting analysis of Oliver Stones ‘Ukraine on Fire” from the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection group, which provides a counter argument to that film calling it ‘undistllled Kremlin Propaganda’:

KHPG – Oliver Stone

 “Ukraine on Fire/ Winter on Fire”  is far from an unbiased account and controversial in itself

Are they not different things though?

The one on Netflix  “Winter on Fire” made in 2015 is literally a start to finish filmed account of the Maidan riots/revolution AKA revolution of Dignity that took place in 2014. There’s no talking heads and no discussion of Ukraine’s history.

“Ukraine on Fire” is a 2016 film by Oliver Stone which is a bunch of people talking about the history of Ukraine.

Ah, you amended you post, yes, different films confusingly mentioning fire both about Ukraine

Are they not different things though?

Yes, confused and corrected, read the title in the trailer wrong. The Oliver Stone film ‘Ukraine on Fire’ was widely panned and now highly controversial… ‘Winter on Fire’ in contrast is well worth watching.

’ve just found out that Putin is referred to as Poutine in France, presumably because ‘putin’ is a very common general purpose medium grade swear word along the lines of ‘bollocks’ and it actually means whore.

Putain

Just saw an interview in English with Zelensky on sky news. He talks exactly like Borat. He should stick to Ukrainian from now on I think.

Seriously? What sort of accent were you expecting him to have? FFS…

When you can speak Ukrainian more competently than he can speak English let us know, until then keep your ignorant opinions to yourself.

Putain

Ah yes, but it’d be pronounced pretty similarly no?

Ah yes, but it’d be pronounced pretty similarly no?

I like to think so :D

What sort of accent were you expecting him to have? FFS…

Unfortunately, talking about Ukraine as if it’s a comical backwater of no importance has been a theme.

That hospital that was hit… I’ve seen lots of claims is wasn’t a hospital, and that the pregnant women were played by an actor… someone’s been digging to debunk the debunking…

2) Let's take their claims one by one.

Marianna Podgurskaya, the woman they claim to be a crisis actor, is indeed a beauty influencer who actually lives in Mariupol. Multiple recent images show she's heavily preganant, which is why she'd be at a maternity hospital yesterday. pic.twitter.com/P8GrIIqtge

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 10, 2022

4) Another claim is Mairupol maternity hospital had long been empty, non-operational and taken over by far-right Azov battalion.@O_Rob1nson found this post on the hospital's Facebook page from 2 March in which it demands fuel to continue operating the hospital. It wasn't empty. pic.twitter.com/V3nR9MXmbX

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 10, 2022