Ukraine

Had a series of emails this morning at work saying that “there is a risk that Russia will soon be disconnecting the internet” – asking for people to prepare for this to happen imminently.

For context, we are a company with an annual revenue of about $3bn and about 50,000 employees, so we have clearly received some very specific intelligence, potentially from the hospitals/institutions that we are working with. We run medical research trials, so suddenly halting activities is not trivial.

Might be nothing, obviously

That’s astonishing!

If they take themselves out of the loop how does that affect things in europe/UK/US ?. I was under the impression that although data center servers are everywhere, the majority are based in the US.

If anything, it sounds like they’re trying to hide their activities form their own people.

Poopscoop
Full Member
When people first started comparing Putin to Hitler I’m sure many of us might have raised an eyebrow, typical internet hyperbole.

Now it seems the comparison is apt and completely justified.

I can’t help but think the 21dt century is make or break for mankind.

Putin is Putin, there’s absolutely no need for such comparisons.

Yeah – I remember a few years ago reading a headline that Russia was building it’s own “internal” internet (intranet?) – it’s clearly a way of further controlling what information gets through to the population

I think this thread really sums up the thinking behind disasters like Ukraine now and Iraq in 2003. And also why NATO getting actively involved (humanitarian intervention, for example) should not happen just because we feel it is imperative to do something.

8/ I would guess we'll someday discover that similar imperative-driven mindsets prevailed among Putin + his cronies before this war. Believing Ukraine–and their dream of Russia as a great power–were sliding away. Concluding they *had to act* regardless of the consequences

— Mike Mazarr (@MMazarr) March 9, 2022

11/ But abandoning a focus on risks, consequences, + outcomes is a guaranteed avenue to bad judgment, and possibly disaster. Falling into this trap out of a very real + legitimate urge to do as much as we can to relieve suffering would not benefit anyone, least of all Ukraine

— Mike Mazarr (@MMazarr) March 9, 2022

… sounds positively North Korean.

Movement of the lines has slowed considerably to almost a standstill over the last 4/5 days.

Hopefully Ukrainian lines are holding and Russia is really struggling as much as suggested. Longer this goes like this, think you kinda have to think they really are struggling. Dunno what that ultimately means though? Far too early to get too confident no doubt

Reports I read yesterday were that logistics and supplies were now catching up and things were going to get really ugly. I sincerely hope they’re wrong.

I’m wondering if we are going to see some of the undersea cables that support much of the ‘net around the world mysteriously getting severed.

The Russians are known to have been experimenting with this.

They could also simply tweak one of their satellites to plough into another one in orbit not just taking that one out but potentially starting a cascade effect.

It does have that feeling that yesterday’s shelling of a children’s hospital could’ve a significant event. Either:

Putin did it deliberately thus it’s a War Crime.

Or it shows just how inaccurate the Russian weapons are.

I’m going with the first option and that he did so by telling the troops it was a military target and that the news reports coming out (if they can see them) are false Western propaganda. Either way though it does ratchet up the tensions.

If it goes to – 20c next week as forcast then the Russians may cease to become an effective fighting force
You need proper cold weather gear, rations, and sleep to function. If they have been idling their trucks to keep the cab warm then alot will be out of fuel by now
Also the mud will freeze so maybe they can move on unmade roads and not get bogged down.

as long as they’re not on unmade roads when the thaw comes, otherwise they’ll be stranded wherever they got to.

I’m wondering if we are going to see some of the undersea cables that support much of the ‘net around the world mysteriously getting severed.

Sure I read an article a few years ago about them trying to develop small nuclear powered drone submarines and cutting Internet cables was thought to be one of their main intentions. Basically they could be launched and lie at the bottom of the sea permanently until needed. No idea how successful they were, or if there was any truth in it at all but it would be a very powerful asset in a third world war

Top trolling by Lithuania, renaming the street the Russian embassy is on to Ukrainian Heroes St.

Guardian

Yeah – I remember a few years ago reading a headline that Russia was building it’s own “internal” internet (intranet?) – it’s clearly a way of further controlling what information gets through to the population

There was an experiment a few years back where they disconnected the internet from the rest of the world. I can’t remember if it’s a firewall type effort or a complete disconnection but yeah, it’s a thing.

Putin did it deliberately thus it’s a War Crime.

I’m going with the first option and that he did so by telling the troops it was a military target

You do realise Putin isn’t giving targeting instructions to soldiers on the ground don’t you?

.weong thread

Movement of the lines has slowed considerably to almost a standstill over the last 4/5 days.

It pretty much hasn’t change significantly since 2nd March. I’ll bet that wasn’t the invasion, sorry “Special Operation” they had in mind. I wonder what Putin’s being told?  Also, hearing information that Russian conscripts weren’t told about the whole “invading another country” thing. Which is revelatory about the state of the Russian military leadership .

In 10 or 20 years what lessons will we – humanity – have learned?

I think it’s worth remembering that it’s not “humanity” doing this, it’s Putin. Sure, people are being manipulated but it’s him doing the manipulation. Not just him, of course…

Does anyone else find it difficult to process the hyprocrisy and double standards here? It’s laudable the international response to Russia’s invasion, but what about Saudi? Saudi bomb the shit out of defenseless Yemem, blowing up hosptails, murdering civilians and destroying an already poverty-stricken country. Instead of sanctions, we prostitue out our military to tell them how to use the weapons we’ve sold them which they have no clue how to use. If only such international responses were standard for all invasions and acts of aggression, we’d have to endure them a lot less frequently.

Abramovic, Deripaska, Sechin and 4 others sanctioned by UK.

but what about Saudi?

For a full explanation of why the Saudi’s are allowed to do what they like, with no sanction, watch Bitter Lake by Adam Curtis

To summarise: During the OPEC crisis in the 70’s, the Saudi’s agreed to break with the cartel and keep the taps turned on no matter what. In return they get to do absolutely anything they want

Probably even more so now, after the events of the last few weeks

Does anyone else find it difficult to process the hyprocrisy and double standards here? It’s laudable the international response to Russia’s invasion, but what about Saudi? Saudi bomb the shit out of defenseless Yemem, blowing up hosptails, murdering civilians and destroying an already poverty-stricken country. Instead of sanctions, we prostitue out our military to tell them how to use the weapons we’ve sold them which they have no clue how to use. If only such international responses were standard for all invasions and acts of aggression, we’d have to endure them a lot less frequently.

Absolutely agree. Though all war is horrific for civilian populations caught up in it, always has been and always will be.

Abramovich sanctioned.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/uk-freezes-assets-of-russian-oligarchs-including-roman-abramovich

Thanks it’s good to know others feel this way. I feel like I’ve been losing my mind since around 2020.

If only such international responses were standard for all invasions and acts of aggression, we’d have to endure them a lot less frequently.

OPEC even refusing to increase output to counter oil price rises

Cheers Saudi

It pretty much hasn’t change significantly since 2nd March. I’ll bet that wasn’t the invasion, sorry “Special Operation” they had in mind.

I think the invasion was launched on the assumption that they wouldn’t face serious resistance, would quickly capture the cities, be greeted as liberators, and could install a puppet government within a few days. For the first few days, Russian units (including elite paratroopers) just drove into Ukrainian ambushes and got slaughtered. Then they ran into logistics problems and had to change plan. They seem to have reverted back to what I’m told is standard Russian doctrine of just shelling and bombing the crap out of everything until the other side surrenders. I’m guessing that the Russian troops have figured out that charging into Ukrainian positions armed with anti-tank missiles is suicidal and the Ukrainians don’t have the forces to counter attack and push the Russians back. My uninformed guess is that it’s going to settle down to a bloody war of attrition now.

For the first few days, Russian units (including elite paratroopers) just drove into Ukrainian ambushes and got slaughtered. Then they ran into logistics problems and had to change plan. They seem to have reverted back to what I’m told is standard Russian doctrine of just shelling and bombing the crap out of everything until the other side surrenders. I’m guessing that the Russian troops have figured out that charging into Ukrainian positions armed with anti-tank missiles is suicidal and the Ukrainians don’t have the forces to counter attack and push the Russians back.

It does seem like they are attempting to fight WW2 again, forgetting about the existance of real time satellite images and man portable tank busters.

Thanks it’s good to know others feel this way. I feel like I’ve been losing my mind since around 2020.

Do not rely on me agreeing with you as any guarantee of your sanity!

So what happens in the end? The Russians aren’t going to say “aah, **** it, let’s go back home”, and the Ukrainians can’t force them to without getting the ability to retaliate against Russian cities. Sooneer or later they will prevail. Putin will keep turning up the volume until the whole country is destroyed. He doesn’t care how many troops he loses or how many civilians get killed. So he inherits a wasteland. Then what? Some options:

1. He pulls out except for Crimea and the “breakaway” republics (plus a bit for good measure)? and leaves the Ukrainians to rebuild, but minus a military
2. He tries to occupy the whole country

I would guess that the ones who lose out in Russia are the middle class, who have their ideas about a modern life with travel, nice things, international education, secure savings etc disappear into the mist. The poor will remain poor (like everywhere) and the rich will remain rich (ditto). Will that catalyse any change in Russia? Guess we’ll find out.

2. He tries to occupy the whole country

He imposes a puppet regime as in Belarus, problem is that the Ukrainians are so united now it will never stand

Abramovich sanctioned.

Those sanctions, are they immediate, or do they give them the six months tidy up time that’s in the bill (knocked done from the original 18 months)?

Steve Rosenberg, BBC Moscow correspondent, still seems to find ordinary Russians on the street who back Putin. One of them commenting on Macdonald’s leaving, that Russians should be happy as they’re fed up with western consumer colonialism.

He has managed to brutally crush all resistance in Belarus, there state is in complete control, even animal charities are banned.

Putin is moving in more equipment from all over Russia https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1501239408107925514?t=IXuss463LE1I1mNsmkqvRA&s=19

Its pretty obvious his plans have gone wrong, but he’s willing to keep pushing on so, I think his plan is still option 2, but I don’t see how the country wont be reduced to rubble to do that

So what happens in the end? The Russians aren’t going to say “aah, **** it, let’s go back home”, and the Ukrainians can’t force them to without getting the ability to retaliate against Russian cities.

My guess is that there will be a stalemate for months but Russia’s military capacity will decline. They can call up a huge pool of reservists but they won’t be any better trained than the current lot. They have thousands of tanks etc. in storage, but most of it is probably junk and they won’t be able to upgrade the old stuff to modern specs. They seem to have limited supplies of smart bombs and missiles so their aircraft will need to rely on unguided bombs. If they bomb from low altitude, they will lose a lot of aircraft to missiles. If they bomb from high altitude, they won’t be able to hit anything with any precision.

NATO have the capacity to rebuild and train the Ukrainian forces so hopefully they will be able to maintain or improve their military capacity and recapture lost territory. Assuming that happens, big question will be whether the Russian troops stand and fight or prefer to surrender.

Old but still valid mostly on their doctrine

A lot of their munitions turning out to be duds (sadly not enough)

A higher resolution video of the video I posted earlier showing a cluster munition container from a BM-30 launched rocket ruining a road in Ukraine. The impact point is exactly 50.546169, 30.205566 in Bucha, several kms northwest of Kyiv. Source – https://t.co/P7G2fTFp4b pic.twitter.com/x9NZERwPRx

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) February 25, 2022

Does anyone else find it difficult to process the hyprocrisy and double standards here?

Difficult to process? Not really. People are always more concerned about stuff closer to home, and yes, when they can identify with the victims i.e. they look like them. It’s racism, but it also hints at the root cause of racism which is humanity’s innate tribalism. A lot of responses are moderated by gut reactions still, and race and even distance to home do affect these things. I’m not offering this as an excuse, of course, just an insight into the problem.

It’s horrible now. I saw a report on a tech news group saying they are cutting the WWW on Friday but dismissed it as folly now it’s taking traction on the news proper.
US saying a possible fasle flag chemical attack.
He wants war, is the Russin state so blind to the world that they don’t know the cat is out the bag drones see everything so do spy sats nevermind NATO parking sentinels 1 to 4 in the sky?
It’s a 70s conflict in 2020s tech environment.

The average Russian is not daft the www can be found if you need to, even the bbc are broadcasting back in longwave to get the info out.
And sadly Russian people will be bankrupt for years Putin saying they will take over multi national companys property and re nationalise them if they leave Russia what’s he going to do with it all the rouble is worth less than doge coin FFs. (Actually not correct as we don’t the exchange rate as the market is closed)
North Korea is not a roll model for nation building Mr Putin

They seem to have reverted back to what I’m told is standard Russian doctrine of just shelling and bombing the crap out of everything until the other side surrenders. I’m guessing that the Russian troops have figured out that charging into Ukrainian positions armed with anti-tank missiles is suicidal and the Ukrainians don’t have the forces to counter attack and push the Russians back. My uninformed guess is that it’s going to settle down to a bloody war of attrition now.

Yes, but unlike their previous adventures it’s not going to be a one way war of attrition.  Every Russian tracked artillery piece is a fuel hungry, logistic drain and a Javelin/NLAW/Bayraktar magnet.  It’s not going to happen quickly, but the constant drip, drip of Russian losses, their inability to deploy effective air cover due to the manpad threat, and poor morale due to casualties, hunger, cold, fatigue will take their toll.

At some stage the Russian forces in theatre will need to be relieved.   Not just battlefield casualty replacements but whole units will need to be rotated out due the shear fatigue of constant operations. All armies need to do this, no soldier can fight indefinitely without eventually becoming ineffective. The unexpected losses and delay in achieving their objectives have just exacerbated this. Some estimates say a third of their total combat capability is already deployed in Ukraine and they have other operational commitments in Syria and elsewhere.

There is also a question mark over their operational reserves of ammunition.  This deployment is massive, the multiple cities they are trying to attack/capture far outweigh any conflict in recent history.  The resources needed to feed it are immense and costly. They are already short of smart munitions and have used them extremely sparingly, I suspect it’s doubtful that their operational planners will have planned for the protracted war that is developing and their depots may well run low of  ‘dumb’ munitions.  Large stock piles of artillery and tank ammunition are eye wateringly expensive for any county to maintain and are a finite resource. Yes, they can make more but lead times are long – it’s not like turning on a tap at the rate the Russians are using them. Not to mention the huge logistic difficulty of getting them from Russian depots to the guns on the front line.

I’m not suggesting the guns will stop firing soon and I am mindful that in the interim they are bringing untold misery and destruction to Ukraine, but the longer this lasts, the more difficult it will be for Russia to sustain it.  IMO they have bitten off more than they can chew.