UK Election!

Can I suggest a new thread on the benefits of stereotyping?

I have just experienced the perils of stereotyping. Upon seeing this election leaflet which arrived today my immediate reaction, after clocking the proud union flag display, was “Ah, an election leaflet from Reform UK”.

How wrong could I be to think that Reform UK has a monopoly on flag shagging.

Not a single mention of Sir Keir Starmer in that leaflet btw………. very wise.

Nice to see that Tory Kuenssberg, and Lizzy T’s best mate, will cover ejection night – looking forward to her look of disappointed when we get the multiple Portillo Moments.

We same to be moving towards an STW approved qualification of who should be allowed to vote. So far we seem to have established that they should be:

Millennial or younger.

Scottish (or at the very least not English).

Anyone care to expand on this?

Steps , toilet.  Cheers.  Just got diagnosed with a young person’s (Cicada hatch X?) disease which has me currently stuck to a toilet.  Not getting many steps because of that and have just had my first bike outing for 3 months.

Funny about those Labour posters – here none of them have flags on them (OK a faint shadow of a saltire in England football shirt style colouring).   Don’t frighten the SNP protest voters.

I had a look at Ben Taylor’s facebook page. OK so it’s a bit Ingeeerland ! and Tory light but if I lived in Croydon South I’d vote for him as the candidate most likely to beat the Tories.

In reply to your last post I’d like to remind you of soemthing you once said, Blokeuptheroad:

We can only hope that one day you’ll contribute to the forum instead of popping up predictably at every trolling opportunity.

Kuenssberg will look even more sour-faced than normal. Bye bye to her ‘special access’ aka pretending to have scoops whilst kite-flying fir the Tories.

For all the folk getting hot under the collar about being generalised about – it isn’t people on here you need to direct your ire at.

Sunak is clearly targeting his culture war policies at the over 70s. He is doing this because his advisors are telling him that is now their key constituency with where they are politically and they are feeling the squeeze from Reform within this group.

To argue against this you are going to need to construct an argument that National Service is a more attractive notion to U70s than over 70s on average.

Everyone knows there are spectrums within groups, but the averages don’t lie and take a long time to change. This is why the strategists come up with Wellingborough Man or other such generalisations. It is your fellows within the stereotypes you should be annoyed at.

When folk from EU countries express their disbelief to me about the stupidity of Brexit, I don’t get angry at them!

We same to be moving towards an STW approved qualification of who should be allowed to vote. So far we seem to have established that they should be:

Millennial or younger.

Scottish (or at the very least not English).

Anyone care to expand on this?

People who understand that “demographic X voted for a thing I disagree with” isn’t necessarily the same as “demographic X shouldn’t be allowed to vote” 😉

but if I lived in Croydon South I’d vote for him as the candidate most likely to beat the Tories.

He will actually probably win the seat from the Tories/ Chris Philp. The polls are currently predicting it. Which is astonishing as Croydon South used to be one of the safest Tory seat in the UK.

I suspect that if the Tories lose Croydon South they will quite likely lose every seat in London.

I’m in a slight dilemma because I would be ecstatic if the Tories lost every seat in London but the LibDem candidate for Croydon South is a good guy – extremely good on Palestine, ex-army, and more left-wing than the Labour Party. I’ve heard him talk at my local mosque.

Edit: To be clear the appeal of the Tories losing every seat in London is based on its entertainment value, that doesn’t need to happen for Labour to form the government in five weeks time. The Tories could retain Croydon South and Starmer will still become PM. There is no doubt that the outcome of July 4th will be a Labour government.

In reply to your last post I’d like to remind you of soemthing you once said, Blokeuptheroad:

As you appear to have gone to some considerable effort to trawl through my old posts, you’re going to have to enlighten me. I’ve a few thousand posts so I have absolutely no recollection of to whom, or in what context I wrote that. Are you implying I’m trolling here? I’m absolutely not. If you feel the need to take issue with that, please do it by PM so we don’t clog up this useful thread any more 🙂

https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1795098416634077228

Looks like he nearly went over at the end of the cones. Imagine being the sitting PM unable to travel to campaign for re-election because you’ve shattered your tibia playing football with kids for a photo op!

People who understand that “demographic X voted for a thing I disagree with” isn’t necessarily the same as “demographic X shouldn’t be allowed to vote” 😉

Fair 😊

I knew Ben Taylor about a decade ago. Bit of a chancer is an understatement. Quite entrepreneurial though.

Well this is terrible news for the Tories & their client media, the Daily Mail spent weeks trying to build this into a story

BREAK: Greater Manchester Police is not expected to take any further action in relation to Labour Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner. It follows claims about information she'd given regarding her main residence – via BBC's @hanrmiller

— Jessica Parker (@MarkerJParker) May 28, 2024

Imagine being the sitting PM unable to travel to campaign for re-election because you’ve shattered your tibia playing football with kids for a photo op!

I am imagining a handy excuse.

Well this is terrible news for the Tories & their client media, the Daily Mail spent weeks trying to build this into a story

Perhaps they will phone up the police chief again and ask him to try another investigation.

That’s old news – the Daily Mail have got a new story to beat her with…

Do you get to vote in the UK General Election this time, Ernie ? It’s a first for me, I wondered if you’d sorted out your citizenship or will have to wait for the French elections. I’ll be voting LibDem in a Tory stronghold where I expect the LibDems to beat Labour. The only valid address proof I could find was a P45 so I’m doomed to voting at the postcode on that.

Survation not showing any tightening after the first 6 days

? BREAKING: Survation's Westminster Voting Intention

LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)

24-27 May
Changes w/ 22 May

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) May 28, 2024

Apparently (says guido fawkes) there is better news for the Tories in a later poll today, possibly Redfield & Whiton ‘mega poll’ due at 5pm

I am imagining a handy excuse.

For when you can’t find a nearby fridge.

I’m sure he can be suitably heroic from hospital, like Boris was during Covid. Although I still believe there was nothing wrong with him and he was simply hiding out for a couple of weeks, probably shagging one of the nurses while he was at it.

Do you get to vote in the UK General Election this time, Ernie ? It’s a first for me, I wondered if you’d sorted out your citizenship

No I haven’t !! I had a vote at the local elections in May but I won’t have one on July 4th, which is why I use terms such as “support” rather than “vote”, I wouldn’t want to be accused of lying!

Most general elections I do election work, the last one was in 2017, so will more than likely be doing canvassing/leafleting for this one. So I am in a dilemma which campaigns to support, possibly LibDems in Croydon South  (I’ve canvassed for the LibDems before) very possibly for Corbyn in Islington North. I’m not a huge supporter of Corbyn but it is one of the very few seats which Labour might realistically lose. And right now Palestine is the clincher for me. I don’t want to see any politician in parliament that tacitly supports genocide. I simply wouldn’t trust them with the more mundane stuff if they do.

Looks like the Redfield one is not the good news poll the Tories were hoping for

?? 2024 GENERAL ELECTION MEGA POLL!

12,000 Sample.

Labour leads by 23%.

Westminster Voting Intention (25-27 May):

Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)

Changes +/- 19 Mayhttps://t.co/KNjUZCKXpy pic.twitter.com/zNfHULXqir

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) May 28, 2024

@BruceWee It’s interesting to compare the 2019 figures with the current Yougov voting intention figures

The Tory vote is down across the board as we all expect though the far right vote remains stubbornly high in the 60+ group if you factor in the Reform party. On the upside that hopefully equates to a split in the far right resulting in fewer seats for both parties.

Looking at the source data it would appear to be poorly educated 70+ home owning English male retirees who are the biggest “culprits” when it comes to supporting the far right. The numbers are undeniable and I meet many of those criteria. I’m a wishy washy centrist.

Voting by social grade now has big reductions in right wing support in C2 and DE which is nice to see.

Oh and speaking of source data I wonder why the age bands are different for “Age” and “Age by Gender” categories.

according to this theres really not much room for polls to tighten, at best the Tories could hope for a 5%  swing?

? Undecided Voters

Which way do undecided voters (11% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) say they lean closest towards voting? (25-27 May)

20% Conservative
19% Labour
9% Lib Dem
9% Reform
5% Green
12% Others

27% lean closest towards NOT voting than to voting. pic.twitter.com/ERoVXXvXLn

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) May 28, 2024

Enjoy your campaigning, Ernie, if you get people out to vote that’ll make more difference. Good luck to Binners, frankconway and anyone else getting involved in campaigning too.

That good news poll the tories were excited about has

Labour 40

Con 28

ref 12

LD 10

Green 5

Which is only a 160 seat majority for labour

With the tories set to lose a mere 200 seats😂

Cheers @Edukator. We’ve been campaigning since the back end of last year

Our delightful, amply-foreheaded Tory MP, James Daly, has been remarkably quiet today since his constant hounding of Angela Raynor had turned out to be a complete waste of everyone’s time, mainly Greater Manchester Polices.

I’m very much looking forward to playing my small part in his own personal little ‘Portillo Moment’ as he’s sent packing  on July 4th. The individual polling in our constituency shows that with the smallest majority in the country (100 votes), he’s toast!

Is there a way of looking at polling by constituency? And I don’t mean using Twitter!

Looking at the source data it would appear to be poorly educated 70+ home owning English male retirees who are the biggest “culprits” when it comes to supporting the far right.

Well, who’d have thunk it?

The individual polling in our constituency shows that with the smallest majority in the country (100 votes), he’s toast!

My constituency (High Peak) is also very marginal (600 votes in it last time!). It’s flipped a couple of times, currently blue with the useless Robert Largan:

Consistently voted against improving biodiversity
Consistently voted against improving air quality
Generally voted against measures to prevent climate change
Generally voted against improving environmental water quality

Consistently voted for making it easier to remove someone’s British citizenship
Voted for mass surveillance of people’s communications and activities
Almost always voted for stronger laws and enforcement of immigration rules

So yeah, standard Tory.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labours-diane-abbott-investigation-reportedly-finished-5-months-ago_uk_6655a76ee4b0521227498117

Keir Starmer told the BBC on Friday that Abbott is “going through and being part of and getting to the end of a disciplinary process because of something she said”.

Oh dear, Starmer has been caught lying. It wasn’t “getting to the end of a disciplinary process” last Friday, the disciplinary process apparently ended 5 months ago.

This won’t go down well with black voters and given the problem Labour currently has with Muslim voters this isn’t going to help.

It will undoubtedly help Labour lose some votes in critical areas and I can’t see it providing much in the way of extra votes.

There is a greater possibility now imo that Labour will lose Islington North, and even maybe a couple of more to independents. Although more likely it might stop Labour from winning a few seats from the Tories.

Welcoming ERG far-right loonies like Elphicke into the Labour Party with open arms is dodgy enough, but alienating traditional Labour voters to this extent is dangerous stuff.

Especially when it is combined with getting caught lying.

Is there a way of looking at polling by constituency? And I don’t mean using Twitter

@vlad_the_invader – I’ll try and dig it out for you but there was a massive poll recently by individual constituencies.

I’ve just seen on the north west news that we had a visit from Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton today in support of someone with a similar sized forehead. They kept that one quiet or we could have arranged a suitable reception for him

Especially when it is combined with getting caught lying.

Starmer’s a ****, my only contribution.

This won’t go down well with black voters and given the problem Labour currently has with Muslim voters this isn’t going to help.

Won’t go down well with many people not only black or Muslim voters.

I bet Tories and Labour are heavily influenced by some powerful lobbyists.

Keir Starmer told the BBC on Friday that Abbott is “going through and being part of and getting to the end of a disciplinary process because of something she said”.

Oh dear, Starmer has been caught lying. It wasn’t “getting to the end of a disciplinary process” last Friday, the disciplinary process apparently ended 5 months ago.

In the version I heard it seems that although the investigation ended 5 months ago, there has been an ongoing discussion since about sanction and whether she will stand again.

So may not exactly have been lying but may have been economical with the truth.

So may not exactly have been lying but may have been economical with the truth

`spoken like a lawyer……….wait!….starmer is a lawyer aint he?.

BBC reporting that she’s been readmitted to the party.

In other news, I saw that Sunak was at Churchill China in Stoke today. I was unfortunate enough to get sent there to do work experience in 2002. I was as about as enthusiastic as his audience looked.

So may not exactly have been lying but may have been economical with the truth.

He told the BBC on Friday that it was “getting to the end of the disciplinary procedure”. The end of the disciplinary was 5 months ago.

So clearly not the truth. If he wanted to be truthful he should have been honest and said “we finished the disciplinary procedure 5 months ago but I still haven’t decided what to do about restoring the Labour whip because if I stall it long enough another Labour general election candidate will be bounced in”

In other news, I saw that Sunak was at Churchill China in Stoke today. I was unfortunate enough to get sent there to do work experience in 2002. I was as about as enthusiastic as his audience

Imagine being pressganged from your shit job to attend an audience with not just over-enthusiastic head boy Sunak but also the knuckle-draggers knuckle-dragger Johnathan Gullis?

No wonder they looked like they’d lost the will to live.