We need to get onto a few websites for offshore weather bouys, never mind the “forecasts” that way you can see what’s coming
some misunderstanding here of the kind of weather system that went across England last night..as pointed out elsewhere – it didnt actually exist until 2 days ago, and up until about 10pm last night it was fairly innocuous out in the southwest approaches. It only really developed into a fierce storm very late on Sunday night just as it rolled into Bristol Channel area as the top of the storm at high altitude connected with a region of the jetstream that forced a huge amount of development into the system (jargon – explosive cyclogenesis). Within 1-2 hours very high winds at high jetstream level were forced down to near the surface (sting jet) that happened across the home counties as the storm rolled out over towards the wash.
Not in a million years could you have predicted that explosive cyclogenisis or sting jet release from looking at observations from ocean buoys…
but the met office did predict it – 5 days ago.
Ok so the amber area in their warnings covered a wider swathe of the country than the damage took place over, but a small difference in the track of the low, or an hour or two difference in the timing of the onset of explosive cyclogenesis would have meant the sting jet hit Cardiff/Brizzle or Brum rather than the blessed south east
All in all a very good call…done by a bunch of sandalwearing scientists with equations.
Hats off to them…what they have just pulled off was the realms of Science Fiction 10 years ago