So, Nibbles…? (GC spoiler if you live on Mars)

Why do we have to do this every year.

Decades of not doing it, not questioning, taking things at face value, was what lead to this situation 🙂 Well not us specifically here, but you get the idea. Also, for me, it’s doing this or working on a rather tedious presentation I have to give tomorrow.

We have to do this because we love the sport. We saw Floyd dying one day and flying the next.

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/08/tour-de-france-2014-analysis-of-climbing-data-and-what-does-it-mean/

in a bit more detail here

The physiology at the front of the Tour

But we can use Perceived Rate of Exertion to have an idea about how hard he is working

That may well be the most retarded thing I’ve read for a while. Because you don’t have any empirical data you’re going to apply some notional numbers on effort to someone you weren’t within 1000 miles of? And the fact he celebrated is evidence of his doping?

Interesting articles though, basically 6w/kg has been the magic number historically, so ride under that, or be viewed with suspicion!

I thought it interesting that they put Nibali on the same level as 2013 Froome, I really didn’t think his performances were all that and believe Froome/Contador would have bettered him in the mountains. Probably not enough to take yellow though. It’s also interesting we’re stuck at 6W/KG, you’d think that might change as new training took hold and even living standards increased?

It’s not actually as a high a number as I’d expect either, if they’re 65kg that’s only 390w, which isn’t that high.

you’d think that might change as new training took hold and even living standards increased?

That’s basically what they’re saying though – everyone who’s hit 6w/kg in the past has been on the cusp of plausibility, but always turned out to be doped. We’re again seeing a crop of riders at 6w/kg, so either they’ve got better, or they’re still doped!

They might be lying about their weight too. Every racing cyclist I’ve ever met lies about how much they train, and how much they weigh 😀

That may well be the most retarded thing I’ve read for a while

Given we are writing on STW and some of the recent threads that is bad news.I explained why I stopped watching – the comparable PRE that I perceived – and you said my explanation was retarded. Doesn’t seem as bad as some to me.

I always wondered where the weight figures for calculating the watts/kg came from. Armstrong always claimed he was much lighter than he really was so that his W/kg seemed more plausible.

FWIW I don’t think Nibbles or Froome were/are doped. They may be hitting the 6ish mark on the W/Kg scale but just from watching the racing it looks very different from a few years ago. The Spanish riders in the Vuelta on the other hand….

Yeah it doesn’t sound all that high until you consider they’re hitting 6W/kg after 150-200km, I can do it for about 2 mins when fresh….

We’ll never know will we, everyone capable of those numbers is already riding in the peloton and will swear blind they haven’t doped. A proper study of the capability is impossible.

Yeah it doesn’t sound all that high until you consider they’re hitting 6W/kg after 150-200km, I can do it for about 2 mins when fresh….

I suppose, but its also concentrating on just the GC main contenders, I read the articles as (very broadly) indicating GC contenders fall in the ~5.6 – 6 W/kg range, the thing is everyone on the tour has to ride the preceding 150-200km so perhaps more advantage is to be derived from a well disciplined/structured team or a controlled Peleton Getting the GC big boys to the bottom of the mountain with minimal Watts expended…

Is there any GC analysis factoring in Team support?
I mean If the other 8 guys in a team are in a similarly high W/kg range then you’re laughing, if your team is falling apart disipline wise, poorly trained, unwell or plain knackered Domestiques or they’ve crashed out, well you’re well behind the curve to start with…

You could suggest the “Smart” doping strategy for a team chasing the yellow jersey is to have a Lead rider who has trained hard to be at the top end of “Plausable” while staying as clean as a whistle and simply supporting him with an army of juicers who won’t be under quite as much scrutiny… Discuss.

Either way it’ll be future analysis of all that frozen blood and wee, not spreadsheet extrapolation that answers any of these doubts…

I’m a bit lost with this 6w/kg ‘benchmark’. w/kg is calculated using a rider’s FTP/cp60 but they’re using Nibali’s Hautacam ascent as evidence of him hitting over 6w/kg. He climbed Hautacam in about 30mins though, so surely his CP30 is 6w/kg – you can knock a few % off to get his FTP, which would come in at , I’m guessing, about 5.8, using FTP=CP20 x 0.95)

Still a long way ahead of some of the fastest climbers though… ten Dam rode Hautacam at 5.5w/kg to 8th place, according to his Strava numbers.

Getting the GC big boys to the bottom of the mountain with minimal Watts expended…

Good point – again from Strava, ten Dam did the last climb of the Clasica San Sebastián at 4.5w/kg after burying himself to get Mollema on the podium.

And it’s not just about having having a couple of “High output” Domestiques, it’s about them not falling off the back and getting DQ’d once they’ve placed their man and recovering to do it all again the next day(s), there needs to be a strategy that takes advantage of that if you’ve got rider’s that can do it…

I guess everyone is focussed on the old LA way of doping, Build yourself a superman who can just stamp the rest into oblivion, any newer doping based strategies will probably have to be a shade subtler and a bit more tactical, what sort of magic juices are there that might aid repeated recovery to a baseline level rather than outright strength/power/endurance?

If there are still keen dopers and doctors in the sport, then they’ve got to be looking at new/different stuff now… including how to make performances look more “Plausable”…

‘m a bit lost with this 6w/kg ‘benchmark’. w/kg is calculated using a rider’s FTP/cp60 b

It’s not FTP, it’s just the average power (or maybe NP) they put out over the duration of the climb. You can have w/kg for a 5 minute effort, or a 60 minute effort, for example.

Yeah, I only skimmed the links and didn’t realise they were just comparing times on specific climbs.
Ftp would make more sense to compare riders who haven’t ridden the same races… Even I put out 6w/kg on some climbs!

But as the riders don’t generally release their ftp I suppose that’s all we’ve got to go on.

Ftp would make more sense to compare riders who haven’t ridden the same races

Not really, where they shine is in the mountains, so that’s what you want to look at. I’d hazard a guess that Tony Martin’s FTP is among the highest, but that wouldn’t make a relevant comparison here.

Yeah, and for the likes of Cav and Kittel, it’s probably something like their 10 second w/kg (or even w/cd – i.e. drag) that’s critical and that’d be well up in the 20’s.

I know what you’re saying, although I was talking about GC guys.

http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/10/uci-requests-review-of-astanas-worldtour-licence-as-third-rider-linked-to-team-tests-positive/

Oooft!! It appears the whole Astana team is at it…

Oh dear, and so it begins again…

seriously?! – oh FFS.

Benefit of the doubt , again, or no smoke without fire and all that?? Hmmmmm

Feel free to embed, can’t from my phone…

One is unfortunate, two looks like carelessness, three?

Only one was in Nibali’s TdF squad, and one has been caught for steroids, errrr steak and it’s esay to see how two brothers in the same team might have the same “preparation” 😉

But given the head of the team, it does not bode well. Any teams looking for a new GC rider this off season? If I was Nibali, i’d be looking for a new team.

Hutch wrote a good article in the comic a week ago about cycling being a team sport, right up to a member of the team being caught. Unlike say the men’s 4x100m relay, where one down, all down.

Epic carelessness by Davidenok surely. If he was knowingly taking an easily detectable steroid, then why go and win a stage when you know you’ll be tested? Bizarre really.

But given the head of the team, it does not bode well.

and previous team leaders; Armstrong and Contador in ’09. I really wish Nibali was riding on a different team 🙄

If he was knowingly taking an easily detectable steroid, then why go and win a stage when you know you’ll be tested?

mix-up with the blood bags, then ?

Still pretty careless to have saved a bag of tainted blood.

tell me about it !

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/astana-continental-rider-okishev-tests-positive-for-steroids

FML…

Jesus. Surely the nail in their pro licence coffin!

Just as well Astana haven’t just signed a doctor with a long history of doping, then things would look really dodgy

Oh wait…they have…what are the currents odds on a Frenchman winning the TDF…in 2014 ?

There surely can’t be another positive at Astana, can there? Oh, wait a minute, there can!

FFS.

Astana as a team, organisation, whatever, should be kicked out sharpish if cycling wants ANY credibility left. Yes, I know this is the continental outfit, not the full team, but it’s the same bunch of corrupt Kazakhs funding it all.

Oh, and Nibbles, let’s assume you’re clean, shall we. If that assumption’s right, just WTF are you doing still there?

Quite a good article on inrng[/url] questioning whether Nibbles should leave Astana.

Yes, I know this is the continental outfit, not the full team…

Was reading an interview with Nibbles the other day in one of the papers (Grauniad possibly), and it was interesting that the last Astana rider caught doping, Nibali had to do some research on, because he had no idea who he was. (Or so he says… Because of course, he’s guilty by association)

He didn’t seem too bothered, so long as the guys around him are good guys. But it doesn’t seem a good place for him to be. I dare say he’s either up to his eyeballs in freshly transfused blood, or he just doesn’t see the perspective of the outside world.

Haha was just about re re re bump this!

Madness, you couldn’t write this shit! Now, it’s not all the World Tour team but seriously WTF, they are linked. In my eyes there’s no way Astana can have a WT licence next year.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/nov/20/vincenzo-nibali-astana-cycling-tour-de-france

nibbles interview mentioned above

Not good and it is hard to not be suspicious

Was about to link to that, Junky, so thank you!

I did read that thinking, “Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?”, because, well, he would. However, that article linked to by MrB above shows the complexity of it all.

Assuming he is clean, which I hope we all want to be the case, surely he must just be praying that Astana lose their license. To be honest, I really can’t see how they can remain involved in cycling much longer. Again, I know it’s two “separate” teams, but it isn’t really. Astana is a cabal of state owned companies from Kazakhstan, Samruk-Kazyna. Dodgy sovereign wealth funds, from a country and industry hardly well known for doing good clean business.

But it doesn’t seem a good place for him to be. I dare say he’s either up to his eyeballs in freshly transfused blood, or he just doesn’t see the perspective of the outside world.

Doesn’t, or doesn’t dare to? Either way, you’re right, not a good place for him if he’s clean.

Cannot disagree with that Flashy…and trust me I tried 😉