I’d argue that he’d still be winning even if Contador and Froome were still in the race. Given the time deficit when he crashed out, we’d have needed to see some amazing riding from Bertie over the mountain stages to see him give Nibbles a challenge, and to be fair, Saxo appear to have good legs (cough cough) so they may have been able to support this.
For sure he’d be leading Froome though. In comparison to previous Tours, Sky have just been making dirty laundry in this parcours, and Froome wouldn’t have been able to fend for himself in the way that Nibali has shown he can.
On another note, I felt sorry for Kiriyenka being made to go up the road today; it seemed to serve no purpose whatsoever and he just looked knackered and forlorn. It’s not like Sky need the TV time, is it?