Rishi! Sunak!

@crazy-legs Apart from some odd results in Oxford, I don’t know of anyone who stood on an overt anti-LTN/anti-active travel platform and did well as a result.

Correct – someone added up all the votes for all the London candidates (including Susan Hall) who had “scrap ULEZ / remove LTNs” and so on in their manifesto and worked out that their combined total was about 100,000 votes less that Sadiq Khan received on his own.

It’s consistently been shown at local elections that standing on an anti-ULEZ / anti-LTN platform is not a vote winner, in fact it’s very much the opposite.

Which makes Sunak’s “Plan for Drivers” even more daft. It’s like he’s literally throwing a net out at random for more votes, more popularity. Nope, that catch is dud, throw it back, we’ll cast again. Come on, there must be some remaining gammon we can appeal to, where are they all?

Tories: constantly on the wrong side of the argument.

@crazy-legs Problem is that the opposition parties are also quite capable of being disappointing on active travel, when apparently every councillor’s surgery is full of people complaining about poor driving/traffic volumes…

Can I please ask the question again?

What do we think the chances are now that Tice will revert to type and stand down Reform candidates in Tory marginals before the GE?

Presumably in return for something vile in the Tory manifesto.

Tice will not stand candidates down – anywhere.

He won’t stand them down. He knows that in the post election blood letting the remaining tories will be reform in all but name. He has very little to do to help that happen. Standing candidates down would be stupid

frankconway
Full Member
Tice will not stand candidates down – anywhere.

I do agree but I’m slightly concerned that Reforms London mayoral candidate said on a panel interview that he would have considered standing down if Halls team had held discussions with him after he initially contacted them.

That does concern me a little as Tice must have authorised him to to say that.

I’m hoping that was a aberration though.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/07/toxic-tories-doomed-as-sunak-hunkers-down-and-labour-sticks-the-boot-in

That does concern me a little as Tice must have authorised him to to say that.

I wouldn’t bank on that. I don’t think party discipline is big in far-right circles. The only local council that UKIP ever controlled was Thanet and within months they lost control due to infighting and mega flounces.

A city in which 41% of its residents were born overseas was never going to be Reform UK territory they only managed to get 3% in the mayoral election, which even if it had all gone to Susan Hall she would still have not won.

So I’m not sure why their man thinks it’s a point worth making.

What do we think the chances are now that Tice will revert to type and stand down Reform candidates in Tory marginals before the GE?

Presumably in return for something vile in the Tory manifesto.

Highly likely I think.  Tice is not in charge – Farage is.

Whatever serves the future Lord Nigel of Brexitshire best…

What do we think the chances are now that Tice will revert to type and stand down Reform candidates in Tory marginals before the GE?

Presumably in return for something vile in the Tory manifesto.

It’s still a possibility. But if you were Farage viewing the current collapse in Conservative support, would you want some manifesto input from a party that is going to be nowhere near power for the next five years, or would you see a devastated Tory party as ripe for a takeover and power grab?

There is a moment of opportunity for Tice and Farage, but only after an historic Conservative defeat.

There is a moment of opportunity for Tice and Farage

Farage has been quoted recently eyeing up the US instead. As a typical right wing “patriot” personal gain is always going to come first.

Farage is a grifter. He has zero interest in the tedious day-to-day business of party politics, as his disappearing act while an MEP showed.

He’s the living embodiment of the old adage ‘politics is show business for ugly people’.

The more the Tory party faithful want him, the less likely he is to want them. Why constrain himself?

He’ll just keep popping up on TV like the irritating gobshite he is and keep leading the Tory party around by the nose. He’s been their de facto leader since 2026 anyway as he basically sets their policy without having to own any responsibility for the consequences

It’s a lucrative win/win for him and not one he’s likely to want to change

Highly likely I think.  Tice is not in charge – Farage is.

Nope, he’s the Monkey not the Organ Grinder.

reform is a company not a political party and Farage is the major shareholder.  whatever Farage wants to happen is what will happen.  thats my understanding.  Its to pressure the tories to go further right

https://news.sky.com/story/who-is-the-reform-party-where-did-they-come-from-and-what-are-their-policies-13056985

Its to pressure the tories to go further right

it’s worked an absolute treat for him too, hasn’t it, he’s had them running scared for a decade now and they’re even more terrified of him now than they’ve ever been.

You could argue that the man-frog has been the most influential politician of the last 15 – 20 years and he’s never even been elected as an MP, never mind held high office

Anyway… PMQ’s should be good fun today, seeing as the little fella has been locked in his bedroom sulking since Friday

He’ll know that most of those behind him want him gone. They’d rather have Farage. What a damning indictment that is

reform is a company not a political party

The two are not mutually exclusive. It’s set up like that to get around electoral rules about donating AFAIK. It may have started out as a pressure group, although I don’t think they regard themselves as anything other than an independent political party.  Given the self destruction the Tories are experiencing,  I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they end up with MP(s) in the GE.

I wonder if this means the right will be permanently split?  Or at least, for a long time.  Damn good news for the country if it is.

Another Tory – Natalie Elphicke – has just defected to Labour, right before PMQ’s 😂

Labour should throw her back – vile person.

“take the hint”

PMQs is utterly pointless right now… Sunak getting away with not only not answering the question, but asking the leader of the opposition an unrelated question they’re not allowed to answer. Time for a new team of Speakers, not just a new government.

Time for a new team of Speakers, not just a new government.

This has been my view for a long time. Hoyle is useless and has set the tone for just letting outright lies go unchallenged.

Sunak knows this and just hides behind sound bites and pre planned responses that have no relation to the question asked

It’s frankly embarrassing

Is there a point where the defecting Tory is too loathsome to be welcomed into Labour? Apparently not.

The right is now splitting in at least three directions: Conservative; Reform; and Labour.

Elphicke’s standing down at the GE so I see this as nothing but a win for Labour. It just piling more pressure on the Tories and Sunak. 👍

Is there a point where the defecting Tory is too loathsome to be welcomed into Labour? Apparently not.

Firstly, this should never be allowed anyway – jumping ship right before it’s obvious you’re going to get annihilated in a General Election. We’re going to end up with the same MPs just having changed allegiance. Absolute disgrace.

Secondly, I’d have thrown her straight back. She’s a nasty piece of work, defending her sex-pest husband, suing the Sunday Times for reporting the truth, rubbishing his accusers and pressuring a judge to influence the case. She should be in jail, along with him.

This has been my view for a long time.

Yup. I think Sunak is particularly bad at it since he seemingly has absolutely no ability to think on his feet and hence always uses a set of prepackaged responses which may be close to the question being asked or might not.

As for Elphicke. Definitely should have refused her. An unpleasant hard right Johnson fan.

Labour don’t care about the how, why or who a Tory MP defects,  they are just a source of more pressure on Sunak to go early, which is all that really matters.

We’re going to end up with the same MPs just having changed allegiance.

No, we’re not. The Conservative MPs that have defected to Labour will not be allowed to stand as Labour candidates at the next general election, the candidates for their seats are already selected and getting ready for the general election. Sooner rather than later… please.

The general consensus seems to be that as she’s standing down anyway, she’s about to do a Mad Nad, which means she’ll never be seen in Parliament again.

She just couldn’t resist giving Lil Rishi a good old hoof in the slats on the way out, probably on behalf of Boris, who I’m sure will be absolutely loving this

Labour don’t care about the how, why or who a Tory MP defects

No, not even a right-wing Tory who was slagging off Keir Starmer for being soft on immigrants and terrorists.

How about a bit of self-respect?

Don’t trust Labour on immigration they really want open borders, warns Natalie Elphick

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1762668/labour-immigration-open-borders

So committed Labour Party members can be accused of being racists and thrown out of the Party if they dare to criticise zionists and the Israeli government, but bigots and racists are welcomed with open arms just as long as they are members of the Tory Party.

It’s not just the trust of Muslims that Starmer is now risking losing.

reform is a company not a political party

Lib Dems and Women’s Equality Party are both incorporated as companies too. I thought Labour was but I can’t find it.

But interesting that Reform is apparently not limited by guarantee like the others (more traditional for not for profits etx), just by share capital, and (half-? wholly-?) owned by Farage.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/02231620

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875 (NB how Farage describes his profession!)

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09614158

Is there anyone labour wouldn’t accept at this point?

It’s a bit of an odd one, I assume it’s just that she wants to cause maximum damage to Sunak in a remaining parliamentary career now measurable in months.

Even if she wasn’t standing down, very few people who cross the floor get re-elected come the next GE.

No, not even a right-wing Tory who was slagging off Keir Starmer for being soft on immigrants and terrorists.

That’s just noise that no one will remember, they will remember her parting comments about Sunak and the Tories though.

She may be nasty but she’ll be going in months and will have done damage to the Tories. There might well be more defections too.

It would have been hugely politically naive to refuse her defection imo.

It’s pure pragmatism, the Tories will be throwing all the shit they can at Labour and Starmer/ Rayner in months to come. It’ll be the London mayoral race on steroids. This is an easy win and far too much of a gift to decline in the months leading up to a really nastily fought GE.

Anyway, just my opinion is all. It’s ok if you guys don’t agree!👍

She will still be a member of the Labour Party after the next general election. And there’s nothing naive about telling her to sling her hook because people like her, who have spent years implementing rightwing Tory policies, aren’t wanted in the Labour Party.

How many extra votes do you think her joining the Labour Party has gained for Labour, and how many they might have lost?

Is there anyone labour wouldn’t accept at this point?

Anyone a bit left-wing and who doesn’t support the slaughter of innocent civilians being carried out by a far-right government?

I disagree Ernie but it’s all good.

She doesn’t need to gain votes for Labour, she just needs to put Conservative voters off from voting, which I think she’ll do quite effectively.

This is a coup for Labour, especially with Dan Poulter coming over last week. I wonder what next week will bring?

Well I wasn’t just disagreeing poops, I asked how many more votes do you think Labour will get from Elphick joining them and how many they might lose?

It’s a serious question although you obviously can’t give a precise figure but do you think that it will be significant? Will it have been well worth welcoming a small boat hating bigot?

And as a reminder Labour currently have a huge lead over the Tories, so abandoning  principles might not be quite that vital and necessary.