Osbourne says no to currency union.

Small(er) sample size?

Though not as small as some others

Who did the other poll out today?

http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/opiniumobserver-scottish-referendum-poll

**** me, 4 polls today?

The winners in this referendum are the pollsters. And the sticker/badge manufacturers.

Maybe they should have had a second question on the ballot paper. Will the psephologists make more money than the lawyers? 🙂
Does John Curtice have a flat on pacific quay?

In other news I was chatting to two Spaniards in Pitlochry today. One wearing a Yes badge, one a No badge.

Can you guess the two different famous Spanish cities they came from?

Also in other news, considerably more overt no thanks / union jacks on display too. And curiously, I still thought there was more Yes stickers etc, but the fella I was working with (firm no voter) reckoned more no thanks.

Are you sure one of them wasnt a Catalan?

Hopefully the Uk will unilaterally claim the place of my birth as UK land so I wont need to change.

you’re making fun of your opponents by saying that, but that is basically your woefully misconceived argument about the EU position of iScotland: [many] Scots are “EU citizens” therefore after independence Scotland is in the EU…

My view is that scotland, currently, is in the EU as it is part of the UK. During negotiations to join the EU it is in the EU but it does need to join as iS.
IMHO it will not have to join as a “new” member in the sense Turkey would have to as it is not “external” to the EU and its people are EU citizens.

I dont think discussing this again will lead to us agreeing and as the EU wont say anything neither of us can prove it one way or the other.

The SNP are basing the whole independence movement on a wish-list so why not do the same yourself…..

I dont think discussing this again will lead to us agreeing

Since when has that stopped us on this thread?

A certain ex STWer suggested that the issue with the ICM poll is more that it was an online poll rather than the small sample size, which seems a fair point.

The winners in this referendum are the pollsters. And the sticker/badge manufacturers.

Meanwhile the big surprise with mobilising business support it that AS hasn’t managed to get the lawyers out to give their opinion on what the correct result is.

Are you sure one of them wasnt a Catalan?

Maybe Aye, maybe naw.

Although stating that would have been even more obvious than it already was. There was support for Yes with a couple if Asturians as well.

A certain ex STWer suggested that the issue with the ICM poll is more that it was an online poll rather than the small sample size, which seems a fair point.

For me the bigger concern is how those polled had been selected rather than the medium for gathering the opinions.

I haven’t seen ‘how’ just yet so can’t comment.

fasternotfatter – Member
The SNP are basing the whole independence movement on a wish-list so why not do the same yourself…..

Good point, and a fine argument for independence.

The great thing about compiling a wish list yourself is you can work at making most of it come true.

If you rely on someone else to do it, you have Buckley’s chance of any of it coming true.

I wish I could eat what I like and never put on weight
I wish a 650b really did make the trails come alive
I wish Father Christmas was real
I wish Nessie would show herself
I wish the BOD contained facts
I wish it really was the fault of Westminster Tories
I wish the € would avoid wage depression, unemployment and social dislocation

So what’s so great on a wish list of total nonsense? It just makes you look silly. No wonder so few refer to the folly that was the BoD. A good example of how iS would waste money on wish list bllx and fantasy under AS.

“As and independent country, We can work on turning this square into a circle.”

“No you can’t Alex as it has four equal sides and four right angled corners. That’s why it’s a square.”

Stop bullying me, it’s not fair……

Mirages, mirages that disappear as quickly as the Saharan oasis.

I dont think discussing this again will lead to us agreeing and as the EU wont say anything neither of us can prove it one way or the other.

The EU have said something in reply to the The Scottish Government’s proposals for an independent Scotland: membership of the European;

As far as EU citizenship is concerned, this is not an autonomous status but is dependent
on national citizenship. In accordance with Article 20 of the Treaty on the Functioning of
the European Union (TFEU), only persons holding the nationality of a Member State are
EU citizens. EU citizenship is additional to and does not replace national citizenship.

When part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of that State, e.g. because that territory becomes an independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory. In other words, a new independent region would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the Union and the Treaties would, from the day of its independence, not apply anymore on its territory.

Source

Mere details, details…that is not what this is all about. 😀

I have never denied that if iS does not join the EU that its citizens wont be in the EU and the treaty wont apply. No one could deny this you need to be in it to be in it.
I have also not denied they need to reapply.
The fact is that when they are applying they will be in the EU and this is
1. Unique
2. Makes the negotiations easier and faster as they have “harmonised”

If I get it correctly KB , and others, say Scotland is not in the EU because only the UK is.
None of us disagree they need to join as iS

Will Scotland be able to apply for EU membership whilst still a part of the UK or will the EU demand waiting til after formal Independence?

As far as time scales go, I think the biggest hurdle will be whether or not Spain gives the process an easy passage or attempts to frustrate and delay it.

muddydwarf – Member
Will Scotland be able to apply for EU membership whilst still a part of the UK or will the EU demand waiting til after formal Independence?

What did they do with East Germany?

I don’t know, which is why I asked.

teamhurtmore – Member
I wish I could eat what I like and never put on weight
I wish a 650b really did make the trails come alive
I wish Father Christmas was real
I wish Nessie would show herself…

So what’s so great on a wish list of total nonsense? …

How about a wishlist like:

I wish we would spend our money on caring for the poor and needy instead of spending it on nuclear weapons.
I wish we would spend our money on providing free education instead of on aircraft carriers with no planes.

You are working on the basis Scots are contemptibly stupid.

What did they do with East Germany?

That would involve one of the most influential EU powers getting something it wants.

This won’t be the case when there’s a Yes vote.

The two situations are not really that comparable.

Edit: typo

You are working on the basis Scots are contemptibly stupid.

On another forum that I shall not name. The “stupid” word is popping up with insulting regularity.

Considering the arguments they are putting forward, it’s remarkable that Iceland is able to exist.

East Germany never joined the EU, East Germany as a state dissolved and merged its territory with FRG, it ceased to be.

Well if people swallow AS’s BS epic, the conclusion speaks for itself

I doubt there is anyone would not prefer to spend money on helping people rather than killing them – but that is not the issue.

The issue is what is the best structure for people to address the needs of the Scottish people (and the interest of the rUK but I realise that’s not important for you guys) – being part of a very successful union that is fit-for-purpose (evidence by the fact that yS want to keep pretty much all of it bar the need for a bigger throne and mirror) or part of a hotch-potch of poorly thought through constructs that clearly isn’t.

Since neither deliver independence to the extent that yS pretend, the answer should be blindingly obvious. So you can make you own conclusions on intelligence etc.

One thing the polls seem to indicate is that at least half have no problem seeing this….as for the rest….you tell me.

In the meantime 2m may well create chaos for 70m – and who is talking about the democratic deficit?

How will iScotland create CHAOS[/i][/u] for people living in England, Wales and Northern Ireland? There’s no big change for them – same laws, same state, same EU membership status, same currency, and possibly an influx of Scottish flight capital.

What did they do with East Germany?

East Germany wasn’t a case of a new state joining the EU. The Federal Republic of Germany was a member of the EU (EEC?) before reunification and was still a member after reunification.

irelanst – Member
I dont think discussing this again will lead to us agreeing and as the EU wont say anything neither of us can prove it one way or the other.
The EU have said something in reply to the The Scottish Government’s proposals for an independent Scotland:

I seem to remember a certain poster getting quite agitated and saying something to the contrary. The word “nonsense” might even have been chucked in there. If only I could remember who that was…

It was a bit more complicated than that as clearly East germany did not comply with EU law at the point of merging and joining

It did show the EU was “flexible” over the “rules”
http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/2/1/2023.pdf

TBH guessing what the EU did is impossible as

Article 236
The Government of any Member State or the Commission may submit to the Council proposals for the revision of this Treaty.

If the Council, after consulting the Assembly and, where appropriate, the Commission, expresses an opinion in favour of the calling of a conference of representatives of the Governments of Member States, such conference shall be convened by the President of the Council for the purpose of determining in common agreement the amendments to be made to this Treaty.

Such amendments shall enter into force after being ratified by all Member States in accordance with their respective constitutional rules.

Ie they can just all agree to do whatever they like and change the rules – granted they all need to agree
IMHO the reality is that if the EU wishes them join – I think they do in general but we cannot know for sure – then some deal will be done so there is no gap.

Moving all EU nationals from iS and from the EU , sorting out fishing rights in their waters is such a mess that I think everyone, even the Spanish, will want to avoid it
They could also include some notion that it had to be a state with it own laws and parliament first or some such to exclude catalonia demands and not set a precedence?

Its all guessing and supposition whichever way you plump and all views [ given it is the EU] are plausible.

It’s interesting that in the last couple of weeks the discussion has shifted.

Regional devolution is becoming more and more relevant as people discuss the failure of tradition neo-liberal politics over the last 20 years to met the needs of people over business and finance.

One good thing to have come from this “debate”

East Germany?

East Germany wasn’t a case of a new state joining the EU. The Federal Republic of Germany was a member of the EU (EEC?) before reunification and was still a member after reunification.

This scenario is not much like iS for us to bother generalising – beyond agreeing the EU can be flexible re rules and if they want iS to join they will and if they dont they wont.
We dont know the answer to that one.

then some deal will be done so there is no gap.

at what price?

I’m prepared to accept your proposition, should there be a yes vote, then there will be deals to be done with Europe on issues like Schengen and the timeline on ratification of EU membership

HOWEVER

Deals like that require Scotland to bring something to the table, the EU negotiators will expect a quid pro quo in return for any concessions made, and as far as I can see Scotland has not got a lot to bargain with in return for the long list of what it wants. Looking how they keep telling us how much higher than the rest of the UK their GDP is, Scotland will undoubtedly lose any rebate and a great deal of tourism, CAP and industrial regeneration subsidy that they currently receive, and they are likely have to make serious further concessions on fishing waters (I would envisage the Spanish will be eyeing that one up nicely!) – possibly of biggest day to day importance to Scottish voters would be the current VAT exemptions, there would be little chance of retaining these, and thats going to hit people hard.

Its also worth mentioning that Salmonds usual ploy of threatening to take his ball home (fishing etc) when losing the argument is unlikely to play well with EU counterparts, we’ve seen Cameron come unstuck trying the same, and the EU need him onside a lot more than they need Scotland.

A state, that was not a member, joined a member state and therefore became a member of the EU ie East germany certainly moved from not being in the EU to being in the EU but it was done in a manner so they did not need to apply

IIRC, I think that Germanys position was that East Germany never rightfully existed as a state in itself, it was occupied by force. regardless, this was done before Maastricht, Nice and Lisbon – the rules today have moved on a huge degree.

No idea tbh but it will be as messy as rUK negotiations.

Not sure what will happen at all and not prepared to guess.
You are correct that in both negotiations iS is tiny and will get “bullied” as As will no doubt call it.

Genuine Q what VAT exemptions?

http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn02683.pdf
that is 2013 though

HOWEVER…

And all that follows… Shows why the polls are closing so fast. If the yes campaign has failed to address the complexities of Independence, then the NO campaign is overly punitive. It confirms for all on-lookers (especially in the past to weeks) that the body politic has been overly dominated by a neo liberal business elite that has a disproportionate influence over Westminster, and has failed to address the needs of people over business for the last 20-30 years. NO are losing ground because there is more to the Union than fiscal policy, but that’s the only weapon of mass destitution that the no campaign deploys as first and last option.

Anyway 3 days to go and we’ll find out.

You are working on the basis Scots are contemptibly stupid.

Well there’s plenty of evidence on this thread 😉

Incidentally, why are the needs of business different to the needs of people? I dunno about you but I work for a business, and I quite like it to do well because I get to keep my job, and I get payrises and bonuses.

Genuine Q what VAT exemptions?

AFAIK the UK is the only member state to have negotiated that it can zero rate food, childrens clothes, books.

Here

Incidentally, why are the needs of business different to the needs of people?

I’m assuming this is just you being you, and this really doesn’t need actual explaining? 🙄

Are you and hora doing shifts?