Osbourne says no to currency union.

As the what on the scrotum?

So you’re basically agreeing there could be economic problems for the rest of our lifetimes and our children’s lifetimes!

No. Economics isn’t a science, it’s more a philosophy. We might have a few difficult years, most new countries do, but we’ve got the basis of being a very successful country. So it’s not that the economics don’t matter, it’s that we should look beyond them.

ben already answered

But if we must talk about economics:

An independent Scotland would be a big success, according to the head of the country’s largest asset manager.

Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said Scotland could prosper regardless of the outcome of the referendum next week.

Gilbert said the Scottish government’s preferred option of a formal currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK would be “highly likely”, despite it being repeatedly ruled out by the three main pro-union parties.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/11/aberdeen-asset-management-boss-backs-independent-scotland

but many people don’t seem to care. Its Yes at any price

Tells you something about how a lot of people feel about the government in Westminster.

I still haven’t seen an answer from anyone here, or in the media about why the powers being promised are only appearing now, and not before. It’s almost like they don’t want to admit that they really didn’t want to devolve more power.

Tells you something about how a lot of people feel about the government in Westminster

Or it tells you something about the intelligence of a lot of people 🙂

whatnobeer – Member
…I still haven’t seen an answer from anyone here, or in the media about why the powers being promised are only appearing now, and not before. It’s almost like they don’t want to admit that they really didn’t want to devolve more power.

Or maybe it’s a case of we fooled them like this before, let’s see if they’re stupid enough to fall for it again…

try this for size….

a rational ‘no’ voter[/url]

bencooper – Member

But if we must talk about economics:

An independent Scotland would be a big success, according to the head of the country’s largest asset manager.

Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said Scotland could prosper regardless of the outcome of the referendum next week.

Gilbert said the Scottish government’s preferred option of a formal currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK would be “highly likely”, despite it being repeatedly ruled out by the three main pro-union parties.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/11/aberdeen-asset-management-boss-backs-independent-scotland

You missed the next paragraph which marks him out as a simpleton:

Scotland could also benefit by refusing to take on its share of the UK national debt if denied a currency union, he added.

Whatever your views on the referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/11/referendum-registered-voters-scotland-four-million-97-per-cent

Is fantastic engagement.

@retro – indeed pretty stunning from a finance industry person to make such a statement given the potential downside of Scotland trying to do that. As I have said if Scotland don’t agree to take their fair share of the debt there is going to be no independence. We’ll have our own referendum on that thanks very much.

@piemonster, yes agreed. Hopefully all legit 😉

No. Economics isn’t a science, it’s more a philosophy. We might have a few difficult years, most new countries do, but we’ve got the basis of being a very successful country. So it’s not that the economics don’t matter, it’s that we should look beyond them.

With an answer like that you could be a politician 😉

This ‘few difficult’ years will be an interesting one if independence actually happens, I wonder if everyone will then be so light hearted about the reality of five or ten years of recession, or as you say, 50, 100… Vote Yes, the rest of your life might be severely affected, but people you’ll never get to meet in many decades time might once again enjoy the pre-independence quality of life!

Sadly, the numbers that make my salary, bank account and everything else to do with money, work in a more scientific style. 1+1=2 etc.

Think I’ve swung back to No again today!

Vote Yes, the rest of your life might be severely affected, but people you’ll never get to meet in many decades time might once again enjoy the pre-independence quality of life!

It is interesting that Yes is ahead in every age bracket apart from the over-65s. People who are going to be around to see the long-term results are much more pro-independence than people who are not.

Sadly, the numbers that make my salary, bank account and everything else to do with money, work in a more scientific style. 1+1=2 etc.

That’s accounting, not economics. Economics is not scientific.

The Noers on this thread seem to be raising a lot of important questions that no-one can answer. The Yessers seem to be ignoring them and focusing on hope.

The two things aren’t necessarily incompatible, of course. Yes we all want change (on both sides of the border), but given the risks, perhaps this particular change isn’t ideal.

The ideal situation would be a No vote, then a proper effort for the changes we all (Scot and Brit) actually do want.

bigjim – Member

This ‘few difficult’ years will be an interesting one if independence actually happens, I wonder if everyone will then be so light hearted about the reality of five or ten years of recession

Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?

5-10 years of complicated and messy detangling if nothing else. Personally that’s 5-10 years of insecurity I don’t want, and I don’t want it for my kids either. So I guess I’m selfish!

FWIW I was in a cab yesterday with a passionate yesser, totally deluded about the currency issues but that’s another story, and even he thought the 18 month timetable to independence was complete garbage.

The ideal situation would be a No vote, then a proper effort for the changes we all (Scot and Brit) actually do want.

If there was legislation before parliament now on fundamental change – a federal system of government based on PR and abolition of the Lords – I’d change to No right now.

But there isn’t. There isn’t even a promise of Devo Max. There’s a few vague waffling promises of “more tax raising powers” which are a poison chalice. The Labour party seems to think that if we just vote Labour then they’ll make it all okay – they won’t we tried that before, and we got Tony Blair.

5-10 years of complicated and messy detangling if nothing else

It won’t be that – didn’t take anywhere near that long for Australia and Canada to leave the British Empire, and Czechoslovakia separated in 12 months.

Big stakes here though. If there was going to be a resounding No vote why would we give up more powers? I think that’s why you didn’t see any promises made sooner as it looked like it was going to be no by 60-40

Cameron granted a referendum on the basis it was yes/no as devo-max was always going to be the real favoured option of the SNP and probably a lot of Scots, independence with training wheels and a safety net. I suppose it was a game of bluff and the recent opinion polls called that bluff.

Australia and Canada left the British empire when?

The ideal situation would be a No vote, then a proper effort for the changes we all (Scot and Brit) actually do want.

I’d agree if it wasn’t for the fact that the Westminster based government (of all colours) has proven itself completely incapable of, and institutionally opposed to the type of progressive change that is demanded by both Scotland and a large proportion of the rest of the UK. Scotland is lucky enough to have the opportunity to free itself of the Westminster roadblock. With independence they have some hope that this change can happen eventually, without it they have acceptance that it will never happen.

Australia and Canada left the British empire when?

When Britain was quite bit bigger and more important than it is now 😉

Look at them trying not to walk in time with the music 😀

Interesting take on a no vote

Australia and Canada left the British empire when?
When Britain was quite bit bigger and more important than it is now.

i.e. more than 100 years ago. Personally I fail to see how the confederation of a group of colonies in the 19th and v early 20th century is a case study for separation of Scotland from the UK in the 21st.

bencooper – Member

It is interesting that Yes is ahead in every age bracket apart from the over-65s. People who are going to be around to see the long-term results are much more pro-independence than people who are not.

Or you could also spin that as more of those with the most experience have decided to vote no

No. Economics isn’t a science, it’s more a philosophy.

@ben there is some truth in this but having the money to pay the bills is very real

vintagewino – Member

i.e. more than 100 years ago. Personally I fail to see how the confederation of a group of colonies in the 19th and v early 20th century is a case study for separation of Scotland from the UK in the 21st.

What do you have that’s a better example? And, how about Czechoslovakia?

Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?

It’s a possibility. I’ve been reading some really interesting stuff from friends on that facebook that have very shiny jobs I don’t understand in finance, who understand this all much better than I do.

I’m expecting a no result at the moment based on current polls though

That’s accounting, not economics. Economics is not scientific.

Economics is the most studied social science isn’t it?

What do you have that’s a better example? And, how about Czechoslovakia?

The best example is Quebec.

What do you have that’s a better example? And, how about Czechoslovakia?

I’m not sure that anything is a reasonable example to draw comparisons with.
Far too many variables.

I don’t have a better example, why should I? I think it will take 5-10 years and will be messy. I think this because of the highly integrated nature of the UK and becuase of the vested interests that will inevitably use the courts to try to guarantee themselves the outcome they want – regardless of the side they are on.

Re Czechoslovakia, wiki sez “Neither the Czech Republic nor Slovakia sought recognition as the sole successor state to Czechoslovakia.” So that’s not a valid case study either.

Economics is the most studied social science isn’t it?

Social sciences aren’t science either 😉

B Cooper BSc(Hons) Physics and Astronomy

Are you expecting 5-10 years of recession?

@Northwind In Scotland it’s possible, the smaller number certainly I would expect the costs of independence to push the UK back towards a recession for a year perhaps and Scotland will be much worse. Of course whether a national statistical office setup by AS would actually ever release such a figure is another question all together.

social science

@bigjim – as a mathematician I don’t think those two words should be used next to each other 🙂

vested interests that will inevitably use the courts to try to guarantee themselves the outcome they want

Yes I agree, the lawyers will be massive winners

Well if you want to be silly, I have more sciencey letters behind my name than you do 😉

I don’t see how you can separate economics, especially that of these mooted ‘few difficult years’, from salaries, mortgages, company’s finances, etc, etc. It’s this kind of burying head in sand and semantic nonsense which puts me right off the Yes side of things.

having the money to pay the bills is very real

yep, sadly. I really want to buy a house but borrowing a six figure some of money isn’t looking like a great plan just now.

I have more sciencey letters behind my name than you do

never mind the quality, feel the width ? 😯

Yes I agree, the lawyers will be massive winners

I think you missed the k out.

bigjim – Member

It’s a possibility.

Sure, many things are possibilities- there’s a lot of unintended consequences in any major change after all. But you were talking about the reality, not the possibility, unless I misread…

vintagewino – Member

I don’t have a better example, why should I? I think it will take 5-10 years and will be messy.

But you admit you’re basing that on nothing but opinion. Meanwhile dismissing a real world, recent split between a large and small state as not useful. I think 18 months is optimistic at best but 10 years is a very long time, especially when there’s already an existing and functioning government waiting to take on power.