Osbourne says no to currency union.

Me too, actually.

I thought the no campaign was saying we couldn’t have a currency union.

of course a CU is possible, and the terms and conditions would have to be agree, but why would the rUK agree to take such a risk on a new foreign economy without something in return?

and it’s not exactly independence without your own bank, reserves, policy and governance – and that doesn’t happen overnight (or in 18 months time) – it’d take over ten years to build up decent reserves to secure a new scottish currency, never mind all the SNP’s spending promises and a potential deficit reduction programme

that is what is not being explained, and Alex keeps changing his mind over what currency he thinks is best – is it the euro, is it the pound, or something else?

of course a CU is possible, and the terms and conditions would have to be agree, but why would the rUK agree to take such a risk on a new foreign economy without something in return?

Because Scottish exports (including the oil) make a decent contribution to the strength of Sterling and the balance of payments. Because companies in the rest of the UK would benefit from having a seamless currency system with Scotland (to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds, according to Ed Milliband). Because the rUK would get something in return – help with paying the massive national debt.

Because Scottish exports (including the oil) make a decent contribution to the strength of Sterling

That’s a double edged sword though – it means that Sterling goes up in value and UK exports become relatively more expensive.

But of course if iScotland goes and uses Sterling anyway, but without full CU, the rUK gets this “benefit” anyway, whether we want it or not.

But of course if iScotland goes and uses Sterling anyway, but without full CU, the rUK gets this “benefit” anyway, whether we want it or not.

This is true. You’re welcome 😉

from Moodys website

Overall, given the small size of Scotland’s economy relative to that of the remainder of the UK and Scotland’s likely investment-grade credit profile, any credit impact (negative or positive) from Scottish independence on UK sovereign creditworthiness is likely to be limited. In terms of credit positive elements, Moody’s notes that Scottish independence would eliminate the current fiscal transfers between Scotland and the remaining regions of the UK, marginally improving fiscal dynamics for the remainder of the UK given higher Scottish per capita public expenditures and Scotland’s older demographic profile. Any division of revenues from North Sea oil would be largely credit neutral for the UK sovereign given that they are small, and declining, relative to the size the UK economy.

Potential risks to this assessment arise if Scotland refuses to assume a “fair and proportionate share” of its debt obligations, which would increase the UK’s net debt burden and would be considered credit negative. In addition, a potential currency union with the remainder of the UK would be credit negative if it were to materialise. However, cross-party opposition to such an outcome makes this unlikely. Scotland’s adoption of an independent currency would be credit neutral for the UK.

It’d take over ten years to build up decent reserves to secure a new scottish currency, never mind all the SNP’s spending promises and a potential deficit reduction programme

One wonders what new countries do in this scenario – how do they survive?

PS you forget they get their share of the assets which will include the reserves and the currency 😉

One wonders what new countries do in this scenario – how do they survive?

Australia was pegged to pound sterling for 56 years until they went their own way (edit: with the the australian dollar)

PS you forget they get their share of the assets which will include the reserves and the currency

guess that means a share of the debts as well then 😉

Either that or a fail by THM.

😳

Oops, yep hands up to a big fail there. I am so used to yS arguing why independence is actually a bad idea, that I misread that one, even by yS standards it did seem a bit extreme. Too much speed reading before lunch!!

Almost right there Ben, lower transactions costs are the only benefit to the rUk but they are overshadowed by the disadvantages – hence thanks, but nae thanks.

piemonster – Member – Quote
Went out on the bikes with Scotroutes today.

Good day out it was.

Tis true.

Here is CakePiemonster about to start inhaling the Pistachio and Custard Cake at Inshriach

guess that means a share of the debts as well then

I assume they will try a quid pro quo route tbh as will rUK
It is what negotiations are

neither side will come out with what they have said they will.

THM I think you mean main not only benefit.

There are a number of reasons why this would be the best arrangement, and there are a number of reasons why it would be to the benefit of both countries if such an arrangement was agreed.
It makes sense to retain Sterling as part of a formal monetary union. It will not only provide a workable currency from day one of independence but also a strong overarching framework for Scotland post-independence.
A commitment to retain Sterling would promote business certainty, reassuring businesses on both sides of the border that they would continue to trade in Sterling.
* Scotland and the UK engage in a significant amount of cross border trade. In 2011 an estimated £45.5 billion of Scottish exports were to the rest of the UK (with at least the same flow in the other direction). For both countries reciprocal trade represents a significant contribution to their respective economies.
* Scotland’s natural wealth would make a positive contribution to the Sterling Area economy. For example, Oil & Gas UK estimate that North Sea output, the large majority of which takes place within Scotland’s marine boundaries, boosted the UK’s balance of payments by £40 billion in 2011.
* Scotland’s economy represents a significant share of Sterling Area output -approximately 10% of current UK GDP or around the same size as the entire UK financial sector.
* A shared currency would help facilitate an orderly transition. For example, it would facilitate the orderly transfer of assets and liabilities which the Working Group highlighted “would seem to be a sensible and efficient solution”. This would be more transparent if the debts of both countries were denominated in the same currency.
* A shared currency would help facilitate the orderly supervision and oversight of systemically important financial institutions which operate across both countries

Please ignore the troll of me disagreeing with you, without insults, and referencing my point.

You are Ole Gunnar solksjar and i claim my £5

I have seen Binners in the flesh and he is way more of a pie monster than you are

We’ll have complete control of all taxes and all public spending. Complete control of immigration and defence. Complete control of everything.
Of course, like almost all countries, we’ll give up some of that control via treaties and the like, but as an independent country we will have the ability to negotiate those treaties ourselves, instead of hoping that the UK government will act in our interests.
Other similarly sized countries seem to do fine without being pushed around.

Except for all the things I pointed out before such as eu law, world trade agreements, big corporations. I live In Sweden and policies and laws seem pretty similar and drifting the same way so I would say don’t expect too much from independence. The main difference between the UK and Sweden is that British people seem much more into self interest politics/ self reliance and somebody else’s problem and the Nordics they want to do thing together, do not want to stand out from the herd and want a consensus.

Now you could see the yes side from both perspectives. That Scotland is more like the nordics in character or wanting to do their own thing is more like the British character. I would guess the yes voters would like to think they are more nordic in spirit but from my experience that’s just not true.

Tis true.

Here is CakePiemonster about to start inhaling the Pistachio and Custard Cake at Inshriach

**** hell, if I’d have known I’d have turned to my good side. Somewhere behind that building, or some other camera proof object.

Still, if times get hard I can always turn my hand to advertising Tefal products.

PM – nice photo and cake, but Heinrich Himmler appearing on your knee is spooky 😉

So looks like the DO really is going jnto the final stretch with sterlingisation – 100 Cheapside anyone?

We’ll have complete control of all taxes and all public spending. Complete control of immigration and defence. Complete control of everything.

Apart from control of interest rates or your currency !

…and fiscal policy and other peoples’ nukes among other things

Anyone have any details on how/where THIS POLL was conducted?

No, but I enjoyed the article from the same site

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2014/02/17/comment-salmond-is-making-it-up-as-he-goes-along-and-now-he

Doubling up on a bad position is a classic way that traders go down in flames. Hopefully, the DOs latest tactics will have the same effect.

I wonder what sturgeon and Swinney are thinking now. Let his go down in flames so that they can pick up the pieces later. I guess they are more vocal in Scottish press, but very low key coverage elsewhere.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5817981/New-poll-shows-Scottish-voters-do-not-want-independence.html

It has a link on your link to a sun link
I boycott that paper so cannot say what it says

you gov who say

YES at 35% (no change) and NO at 55% (+1)

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/11/latest-scottish-referendum-poll/

general

http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/scottish-independence/

Pie monster there is some info on Curtice’s blog at whatscotlandthinks

Cheers Gordi/Junkyard, I’ll have a mooch.

Of the various currency options available to an iS, the latest one is the one that the fiscal commission rejected almost immediately. One small paragraph in their report explaining why serious consideration need only be given to the other options. So the DO is even ignoring his own advice now. Amazing.

I did point that out to Ben a couple of pages ago but that didn’t seem to matter.

Somebody in a village near me put up one of those big white Yes signs on their property next to the road. Local wag has already drawn pubic hair on the Y. This could get entertaining….

@hels – we need a photo 🙂

Also perhaps that could be the symbol for the new Scottish currency

Vietnam already owns the dong

STOP TELLING SCOTLAND IT CAN’T USE THE DONG!

Typical “Better Together” scaremongering propaganda.

The Ding Dong is still available. It has a certain ring to it too.

Excellent !

I will try and get a pic – was driving and didn’t have time to stop. Will take a can of spray paint just in case.

The Ding Dong is still available. It has a certain ring to it too.

The notes will need Prince Albert then?

Although in reflection, for maximum amusement he should really put up a series of Yes signs, as in Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Oh Yes, Yes etc.

Given how humorless most of the Yes folk are, I won’t knock on the door and suggest it.

Just received this guff in the post:

“We believe that we can have the best of both worlds in Scotland as part of the UK. We can have a strong Scottish Parliament, with more powers guaranteed, and we can have the strength, security and stability that comes from being part of the bigger UK. We don’t need to choose between the two.

Voting for separation would be a huge leap into the unknown. If we leave then we lose the strength of the pound. This would mean that we would pay more for our mortgages, credit cards and loans. If we leave we are putting our pensions at risk. If we leave we are risking big companies being forced to move south and Scottish jobs being lost.

If we leave the UK there would be no going back. In September we face a choice about our future. Let’s say no thanks to all of the risks and uncertainties of independence. Lets say loud and clear that we want the best of both worlds for Scotland.”

If we have more powers guaranteed why are the being kept secret until after the referendum? My reckoning is that the will be minimal at most – if they were anything to write home about Better Together would be singing them from the roof tops.

The UK doesn’t strike me as being all that strong or secure and is about as stable as a wobble board.
The pound is weak. I like that they have a crystal ball which say that we will all pay more for debt products. I wonder if we might have fewer debt products in a prosperous independent Scotland.

Our pensions are not at risk – there is no pension pot for state pensions, they are paid for by current taxes, more prosperous Scotland equals more tax income which equals safer pensions.

As for big companies being forced to leave – most of our big companies were massive liabilities during the financial crash. Might well be a good thing for them to leave.

I’ll be saying No to the risks and uncertainties of staying as part of the UK.

If only we could have a sensible fact and evidence driven debate instead of the absolute guff that has taken over.

If only we could have a sensible fact and evidence driven debate instead of the absolute guff that has taken over.

I do hope you’re not holding your breath.

It’d be nice if folk stop “playing the man” too.

That goes for both sides, Boris is popping up quite a bit. And yesterday I listened to someone state “I was unsure but after listening to the (STV) debate I’m voting No” Not because of the case made by either side but because Salmond is “smarmy”

@wanman – “the pound is weak” so why is AS proposing you use it ? The counter to your argument is that an independent Scotland is much weaker and almost certainly less prosperous due to higher per capita overheads and the fact it lacks the scale to compete.

Anyway I respect the fact it’s your choice and wish you the best in it.

“the fact it lacks the scale to compete”

do expand on this please.

Our pensions are not at risk – there is no pension pot for state pensions, they are paid for by current taxes, more prosperous Scotland equals more tax income which equals safer pensions.

I might well be confused on this (as on most things). Wasn’t the argument about pensions that Scotland has a population that is aging more than the UK, so *because* they are paid by current taxes, currently Scotland gets quite a good deal, but independence would remove this, meaning pensions would have to be decreased, or contributions increased?

they are paid by current taxes, currently Scotland gets quite a good deal, but independence would remove this, meaning pensions would have to be decreased, or contributions increased

Life expectancy in Scotland is less that other parts of the UK. So per person there is on average less spent on pensions.

An indy Scotland would not have to pay for HS2, Crossrail, the Olympics and any other vanity project that Westminster dreams up for London.

Plus we’d have the opportunity to explore the Atlantic coast for oil and gas….

It’d be nice if folk stop “playing the man” too

Yes it would indeed both on here and in the wider debate
I dont know quite what AS does to engender so much ill feeling tbh.
he is the same as any other politician ie no one should believe what they say though it is just possible he might

As he notes scotlands master plan on pensions is to let everyone die young – about 2 weeks after stopping work would be ideal.

FWIW it will be a mess to sort out the burden for say someone who is now 55 and has “paid into ” the UK