Is May about to call an election?

According to the Met Office, heavy rain in Wales and south-west England will move into central and northern England, then into Scotland and Northern Ireland, followed by showers. The South East may well stay dry.

Damn.

I guess they are saving “Corbyn to Axe the Queen” for tomorrow mornings front page. 🙄

Some gloom for the left. Despite everything Kuenssberg still thinks it ain’t happening, and she has her ear to the ground.

Looks like I just missed Corbs in Glasgow as I walked to work…

That’s disappointing. You could have asked him about trail centres. 😉

molgrips, im resigned to it

on the plus side having seen how badly May has handled the campaign and had so many weaknesses in her past as home sec exposed, its innevitible that theyll make a pigs ear of brexit- she really is crap!, maybe even enough to get a second referendum ? 😉

So your ‘best’ case scenario now results in Theresa (who opposed Brexit) getting replaced with Rees-Brexit-Mogg 😀

Whoever is in charge of the tories is kinda secondary to their paymasters who will remain the same in either case.

So your ‘best’ case scenario now results in Theresa (who opposed Brexit) getting replaced with Rees-Brexit-Mogg

Im not sure Id want to see the country run completely into the ground ninfan!

ive been resigned a tory victory for ages, its just been nice watching them panic over the polls!

Actually ninfan, JRM as a Tory leader would be a godsend for all other parties.
Even as PM given I doubt half the Tory party would vote for his policies.
Can’t really see him getting in though.

its just been nice watching them panic over the polls!

That sounds like the type of logic currently infecting Paul Mason

Whereas I would have thought that Labours finest hour involved actually winning an election!

Are you getting your gloating in early ninfan? 😉

There’s no need. The right whingers are going to win anyway, so you can gloat on Friday. Or is your schedule busy then?

Whereas I would have thought that Labours finest hour involved actually winning an election!

Setting up the NHS I’d expect.

Setting up the NHS I’d expect.

Isn’t that the type of thing that you can only do after you win an election?

See the national minimum wage as another example

Yes it is.

Well vote Labour then ninfan.

Just had the usual letter for the incumbent racist ****, he’s such an odious prick.

She’s not even bothering trying to target undecided voters 😆

https://mobile.twitter.com/theresa_may/status/872410324862939136

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/

Majority of about 100.

Towards the top end of Jamba’s prediction….

Towards the top end of Jamba’s prediction….

Or the bottom end of his previous prediction! That’s the thing about predictions, make enough of them and one of them will be right…

Or the bottom end of his previous prediction! That’s the thing about predictions, make enough of them and one of them will be right…

I’m fairly sure that the Conservatives will be happy enough with a majority that size. It certainly won’t be seen as a victory for Corbyn.

I love the Torygraph’s line that May is more trusted on Brexit than Labour.
The weak and wobbly Mrs U-Turn is a better bet on Brexit? Wow.
Someone else has started referring to her as the Tin Lady – which seems apt.

Latest tory party political broadcast

I love the Torygraph’s line that May is more trusted on Brexit than Labour.

She is going to be rather deeply in debt to the pressbarons for their assistance.
Wonder what new things she is going to give them to try and get them to maintain the pretence.

no levesson 2 for starters

@boardinbob

Have you read through that Twitter feed of Maybot you linked to?

Just wow. 😆

I had to double check it wasn’t a joke account. If the replies reflect the mood of the nation..

Brilliant innit?

Agreed. Wow.

Forward it to Chewkw.

@igm just going back to the polling issue and your question. Polling companies are not paid based upon whether the poll truns out to have been correct, they are hired to generate news – oohh tye polls moved / said something surprising, so a bit like England at a football championships the press build them up then knock them down.

@oldnpastit its quite wrong to rely on this “advanced mathematics” the polling companies allegedly use. They don’t, its a massive fudge with all sorts of adjustments of the polling data and that data is flawed. I am signed up to a few polling panels and I can eneter what I like, location (for consituency), prior voting history, current intention, even personal detals like ethnicity, age etc. With no underlying data verification any analysis is garbage. Also they are exrapolating from 1-2,000 people to the whole voting population 😯

75-100 😀

If it does work out that way that’s a stunning victory for May from 17 to such a sizable majority. Substantially stronger position for Brexit and an extra 2 years post 2019 to get new deals signed up and working well.

Jamba – my father set up a small polling company once upon a time, and he was one of the pioneers of telephone polls from the academic end. I’ve worked on polls and with the results of polls in a television studio on election night.
I’m fully aware that polls are there as a news item. Do you also think TV companies stage road traffic accidents?

jambalaya – Member
75-100

If it does work out that way that’s a stunning victory for May from 17 to such a sizable majority. Substantially stronger position for Brexit and an extra 2 years post 2019 to get new deals signed up and working well.

Well it will be stunning given her abysmal performance but still 50 seats down from your original prediction.

PS – my father also developed algorithms to spot people who were making data up – like people employed by polling companies who just went down the pub and filled in a few forms with their mates. Join all the panels you want reputable companies will weed you out – the pop up polls in the Mail probably won’t.

@jambalaya, I think we’re saying the same thing. Perhaps instead of “advanced mathematics” I should have said “marketing” ?

75-100

Yep.

1 last night to enjoy the tories sweating the polls ………..

has cranbery gone quiet?, he was all over the corbyn threads gloating about his labour membership, bet he was bricking it when he saw that yougov projection with a 1% difference……..

Polling companies are not paid based upon whether the poll truns out to have been correct

Obviously the manner in which they reflect reality is a factor on whether anyone will pay them for their services its quite clearly their main selling factor, Business use them to poll consumers who is going to pay if they think they make shit up or what they say is totally untrue?

We would all agree that they are not 100% accurate but neither is your statement

Obviously the manner in which they reflect reality is a factor on whether anyone will pay them for their services its quite clearly their main selling factor,

I don’t think it’s obvious at all.

What proportion of people read a headline saying “YouGov predicts XYZ landslide” and then actually go back and check YouGov’s past polling record (insert name of favourite polling company) ?

People like fivethirtyeight do, and journalists do, but they’re not the target audience anyway, so who cares?

Yougov tend to slightly over estimate Labour as I recall.

@oldnpasit it, ok I misunderstood apologies.

it gets 93% of election results right – i am assuming that is broadly right for the winners/the right party- no idea within what % point

Given this the claims they are just writing headlines is BS
the claim they are not perfect/always accurate is correct

jambalaya – Member

I’m offline tomorrow , I’m sure the world will keep on turning

More Tory lies……..
😉

Jamba – care to explain to me how polling works again? I wish to be impressed by your universal knowledge.

I’m feeling a little twitchy about comments in an area where my father was one of the UK experts, given he’s very unwell at the moment and it isn’t going to get any better.