EU Referendum – are you in or out?

We’re all just guessing and there is little point pretending otherwise.

It takes more than 10 mins to knock up a free trade agreement, what happens before they do?

Plus any organisation that is so resistant to change or the renegotiation of terms as the EU appears to be is one that is not worth being a part of.

Its not resistant to change its just resistant to doing what we want when everyone else wants somethign else. we are the noisy stubborn one at the table who wants to play a different game then say they are resistant to change when they point out we all agreed to do this.

We’re such a huge export market for mainland EU that we’d still trade freely

I Laugh each time i read this. WHy would anyone think this?Its amazes that folk think this is true. Its arrogant twaddle. It keeps getting repeated on here with no evidence to support it

Think of a divorce then argue nothing will change afterwards as they still need you because you are so important. Factor in we just took away a large pot of money from them and told them to **** off after they changed the rules to get us to stay and then remember they are 5 x the size we are. You really think we will be the ones dictating terms?

we can clearly both live without each other and it seems unlikely they will go yes leave, annoy us, take your money but no here of course you can have all the economic benefits of free trade without any costs as you are just too important to us please dont go we need you please etc

Really why do folk thing this will happen ?

@ wrecker
clearly trade will be affected and negatively. the only thing worth discussing is for how long and how we can ameliorate the impact
FWWI i dont think economics is the only factor its ok to cry freedom and just leave but dont pretend it wont cost on the short to medium term

I was teasing really but obviously I can’t explain how it would go any more than you or anyone else can. We’re all just guessing and there is little point pretending otherwise

Its not a guess to say the removal of free trade will impact on trade

the “guess” is at how bad it will be not if it will be negative.

Junkyard – lazarus
Its not resistant to change its just resistant to doing what we want when everyone else wants somethign else. we are the noisy stubborn one at the table who wants to play a different game then say they are resistant to change when they point out we all agreed to do this.

There is nothing wrong with being the noisy stubborn one.

We are who we are.

We either play your game or we get out or force you to play a different game. Simple.

We should not be ashamed of who we are after all we are happy as who we are.

Junkyard – lazarus
I Laugh each time i read this. WHy would anyone think this?Its amazes that folk think this is true. Its arrogant twaddle. It keeps getting repeated on here with no evidence to support it …

The logic dictates that EU is a rich market and a closer one to BritLand physically but the the world is not just EU … what a bunch of sorry arse that think EU is important. Look east …

I can’t explain how it would go any more than you or anyone else can. We’re all just guessing and there is little point pretending otherwise.

Much as I share your scepticism of the ‘science’ of economics, It’s not really guessing is it? It doesn’t take an economic genius to work out that if you make something more expensive, then the amount of it happening is very likely to reduce. Even if what you say is true, are you really suggesting we take the risk of leaving even though we have no idea of what might happen?

We either play your game or we get out or force you to play a different game. Simple.

We should not be ashamed of who we are after all we are happy as who we are.

Who’s game? is this the ZM’s game or ours in terms of being us as in a bunch of people who don’t agree?
Why is the euro sceptic xenophobic view a good one? Maybe UK would be better properly integrated into the EU.

mikewsmith – Member

We either play your game or we get out or force you to play a different game. Simple.
We should not be ashamed of who we are after all we are happy as who we are.

Who’s game? is this the ZM’s game or ours in terms of being us as in a bunch of people who don’t agree?[/quote]
The rule of the game as it originally intended to … I think alone the line of just common market or something but certainly NOT being absorbed into part of EUSSR.

Why is the euro sceptic xenophobic view a good one? Maybe UK would be better properly integrated into the EU.

There you go again …

Not all foreigners like each other and not all of them like to live together.

There is Nothing wrong with NOT liking someone else so long as you don’t machete them for no reasons.

Just because they don’t like each other does not mean they are xenophobic. They are simply just not compatible either in their lifestyle, religion or belief etc …

They just don’t like each other so why force them?

Who has made you the god to think for others?

It doesn’t take an economic genius to work out that if you make something more expensive then the amount of it happening is very likely to reduce.

We don’t know if anything will get more expensive. It’s not a forgone conclusion. Trying to scaremonger by shouting that the EU will do their best to **** us is….scaremongering and nothing more. The economic geniuses can’t seem to agree on what will happen. Most have admitted that they simply don’t know.

are you really suggesting we take the risk of leaving even though we have no idea of what might happen?

I’m not suggesting anything, but you do make a good point. It is certainly a risk.

We don’t know if anything will get more expensive.

We really do know free trade makes things cheaper than not having free trade. Free is always cheaper that not free

It’s not a forgone conclusion.

Its is really is if we leave we really do leave the free trade area. We then need to negotiate to [free]trade with them. WHat do you think will happen at this point?

Trying to scaremonger by shouting that the EU will do their best to **** us is….scaremongering and nothing more.

No one has said that what they have said is that thinking we can leave and nothing will change trade wise/we remain in the free trade area is unsound and an incredibly naive conclusion. Perhaps you could negate the actual point made rather than making up an argument and defeating that?Straw man is strawy.

You are right we cannot know for certain what will happen but even the most anti EU of UKIP want to keep the free trade so I think its fair to say everyone [ except you] accepts its loss will make things worse.

It really is preposterous to think we can leave tell them to **** off remove our money [ after they changed to get us to stay] and then they will just go yes of course you can keep all the benefits of free trade at no cost to yourself and with a non harmonised market as we need you. It wont happen it has no chance of happening and its naive to argue otherwise. All we can do is ask how bad this affects us as trade with the EU will clearly be impaired if we leave – if this was nto the case everyone could leave as nothing would happen

Just because they don’t like each other does not mean they are xenophobic. They are simply just not compatible either in their lifestyle, religion or belief etc..

?

even with him blocked his patois is unmistakable and his logic still non existent

kelvin – Member

Just because they don’t like each other does not mean they are xenophobic. They are simply just not compatible either in their lifestyle, religion or belief etc..

? [/quote]

Just trying to double take on … there is no shame if you don’t like someone different from you so long as you don’t machete them for no reasons.

You just don’t cross path.

In other part of the world where there are multiple tribes/races/religions/cultures etc they just live side by side but they don’t like each other that well yet they don’t kill each other.

Do you get it? If you don’t get it then stay out of the path like we do and not get involved in other cultures etc …

Junkyard – lazarus
even with him blocked his patois is unmistakable and his logic still non existent

Crikey … hello …
I am sure Kelvin knows how to think for himself and not you poking your nose in …

So you said you were not English (what are you then?) … now apply that scenario to my logic … You see? You see? You see what I mean the evidence is right infront of you.

Told you …

We don’t know if anything will get more expensive. It’s not a forgone conclusion.

Yes, it is. I was previously resigned to the fact that the stupid and myopic people in this country will vote to leave, but if this is going to be the level of the pro-leave argument I’m feeling much better about it.

Consider this. If the UK leaves, and the rest of the EU wants to prevent other countries following us, do you think they will allow the UK to continue to receive the main benefits of being a member?

Junkyard – lazarus

We don’t know if anything will get more expensive.

We really do know free trade makes things cheaper than not having free trade. Free is always cheaper that not free[/quote]

Absolutely rubbish! Really … that’s rubbish talk. You are talking out of your arse!
You are “business guru” now are you while also the lefty propaganda mouthpiece …
I think you are liking your own sounds now aren’t you.

Go do more studies in that subject before trying to speak of such nonsense.

“Free is always cheaper that not free.” <- WTF! 😆

Are you trying to outdo me? 😆

It’s like saying “holding fart in is better than not holding fart in”

Obvious is obvious …

Oh ya .. answer my question if you are not English what are you? Simple.

Its is really is if we leave we really do leave the free trade area. We then need to negotiate to [free]trade with them. WHat do you think will happen at this point?

Absolutely rubbish bullcock again …
If you let EUSSR bully you then they will.
If you want to sell out then you will quickly agree to their terms.

No one in their right minds would give up their own rights unless they have sinister intentions.

Consider this. If the UK leaves, and the rest of the EU wants to prevent other countries following us, do you think they will allow the UK to continue to receive the main benefits of being a member?

I doubt they’ll even notice. They’ve got more pressing problems to deal with.

I doubt we’ll notice either. Some political fudging will take place and it’ll be business as normal.

Perhaps you could negate the actual point made rather than making up an argument and defeating that?

you’re way off the mark there junky. It’s easy to see what’s happening, the pro EU lot are trying to scare everyone by dangling the economy carrot. I don’t believe a word, there are bilateral agreements and even if not, as one of the biggest economies in the EU few companies can afford not to do business here. Making trading more difficult/expensive would be cutting their nose off to spite their face.

I doubt they’ll even notice.

I’m rather confused. Either we’re so important that they’ll be begging for us to continue trading with them on preferential terms, or they won’t notice us leaving? Which is it?

Anyone stuck all our in/out/shake it all about results on a spreadsheet and produced some nice graphs yet?

If not, is disappoint 😀

I’m rather confused. Either we’re so important that they’ll be begging for us to continue trading with them on preferential terms, or they won’t notice us leaving? Which is it?

Both if you like*. Business will continue as usual due to mutual interests. Political fudging will enable this.

Nothing much will change.

* you are conflating different posters by the way, which might explain your confusion

as one of the biggest economies in the EU few companies can afford not to do business here.

Keep repeating it often enough and it might become true. 🙄

You could at least try to back up your opinions with some sort of reasoned argument, instead of just saying ‘la la la la! You’re just scaremongering!’. Why will businesses trade with UK companies when they can trade elsewhere within the EU and save money?

I wish I could choose my customers. Unfortunately it doesn’t work like that.

Seriously? You have not backed up your own argument at all! Why on earth should I back up mine?

Why will businesses trade with UK companies when they can trade elsewhere within the EU and save money?

Do you understand capitalism? It’s not an “either/or” situation.

Do you understand capitalism?

I understand it enough to recognise that if something is more expensive then customers will look for cheaper options and go elsewhere when* they find them. You and 5thElement appear to be suggesting that EU businesses will be forced to trade with UK companies irregardless of price.

*not if. One of the other aspects of capitalism I understand is that it is very good at filling supply holes where demand exists.

No, I’m saying nothing will change. Hence the prices will be the same.

If you want to prove us wrong vote no and cross your fingers.

I couldn’t care less if we leave or not. Nothing will change…

Junkyard-please explain the below given that all those selfish tory go getters will not be able purchase their BMW’s and Audi’s. I was under the impression that the collective trade balance was all on the rest of Europe’s side. Being a bit difficult in trade deals works two ways when you are the target market.

“Its is really is if we leave we really do leave the free trade area. We then need to negotiate to [free]trade with them. WHat do you think will happen at this point?”

I should point out that our company is a manufacturer and an exporter so britex could be an issue, so I’d like your view not a rant :-).

You and 5thElement appear to be suggesting that EU businesses will be forced to trade with UK companies irregardless of price.

And I get accused of strawman?
Neither of us have suggested anything of the sort.

the pro EU lot are trying to scare everyone by dangling the economy carrot.

No we said that it wont remain the same when we leave. Pretend the argument other than this does you a disservice and its still a straw man. its not what was said.

I don’t believe a word, there are bilateral agreements

Why not look at the agreements other European countries have *

and even if not, as one of the biggest economies in the EU few companies can afford not to do business here.

Arrogant twaddle We are so big the economy 5 x the sizes of ours cannot cope without us.Repeating this wont make it true Can abig supplier to Tesco dictate terms to Tesco? Can they really annoy Tesco then do it? Its daft to argue this.

Making trading more difficult/expensive would be cutting their nose off to spite their face.

I think you will find we are the ones leaving the club
Its ludicrous to think you can leave a club and retain all the benefits of the club because you are so big

Really you think we withdraw from the free trade club and all it entails and they say yes fine keep trading no change there fellas. ? Really!!!!!Again why dont they all leave then as it wont make any difference . Honestly I am just shaking my head that anyone thinks this its ludicrous.

Can we pull out of Nato , not pay and still get the protection because we have a big army and some nukes so they need us.
I still cannot understand why anyone can think this is even a likely scenario the only question is how much will it cost and what will the impact

* The EEA is based on the same “four freedoms” as the European Community: the free movement of goods, persons, services, and capital among the EEA countries. Thus, the EEA countries that are not part of the EU enjoy free trade with the European Union. Also, ‘[t]he free movement of persons is one of the core rights guaranteed in the European Economic Area (EEA) … t is perhaps the most important right for individuals, as it gives citizens of the 30 EEA countries the opportunity to live, work, establish business and study in any of these countries.'[55]
As a counterpart, these countries have to adopt part of the Law of the European Union. However they also contribute to and influence the formation of new EEA relevant policies and legislation at an early stage as part of a formal decision-shaping process.[6]
Agriculture and fisheries are not covered by the EEA. Not being bound by the Common Fisheries Policy is perceived as very important by Norway and Iceland, and a major reason not to join the EU. The Common Fisheries Policy would mean giving away fishing quotas in their waters. They also want to be outside the Common Agriculture Policy, because it means that countries pay fairly much money based on GDP, which subsidise agriculture, which Norway and Iceland do not have so much of.
The EEA countries that are not part of the EU do not bear the financial burdens associated with EU membership, although they contribute financially to the European single market. After the EU/EEA enlargement of 2004, there was a tenfold increase in the financial contribution of the EEA States, in particular Norway, to social and economic cohesion in the Internal Market (€1167 million over five years). Non-EU countries do not receive any funding from EU policies and development funds.

As you can see its pretty much like being in the EU but with less say and many of those things are the reasons some of us want to leave. We wont be accepting free movement of people will we so how can we negotiate with them?

Edit: deleted my post, as this thread is full of dead ends.

We wont be accepting free movement of people will we…

I bet we will.

An out vote isn’t a vote for Ukip. The same pro-Eu regime will be in place.

Neither of us have suggested anything of the sort.

You both deny that anything will change with regard to the cost of EU businesses dealing with the UK following brexit. The question you haven’t answered is why the EU would continue to grant the UK the benefits of membership following our departure. All you’ve come up with is ‘we’re too big to ignore’, or conversely in 5thElephant’s case, ‘they won’t notice’.

Junkyard-please explain the below given that all those selfish tory go getters will not be able purchase their BMW’s and Audi’s. I was under the impression that the collective trade balance was all on the rest of Europe’s side. Being a bit difficult in trade deals works two ways when you are the target market.

I am not sure what will happen beyond it not being exactly like it is now [ and trade with the EU impaired to some level] as they need us. They are bigger than us and pissed off what do you think will happen?

Why do folk think we can leave a club then negotiate all the benefits without the membership costs and with different nicer terms for us and worse for them?
Not a rant but I am just repeating myself

or conversely in 5thElephant’s case, ‘they won’t notice’.

I prefer my ‘Business will continue as usual due to mutual interests’. 🙂

The UK contributes much more than it receives too, about €4.7bn more

Also the cost imvolved in moving offices every month. The €114 million a year ‘travelling circus’ I think it’s known as, why do they insist on this?

I’m not really bothered if we’re in or out.

I prefer my ‘Business will continue as usual due to mutual interests’

If this is true [its not] then there was never any need for a free trade agreement as it was happening anyway and the whole EU could stop tomorrow and nothing would happen. Its not that convincing as an argument.

I think there’s a compelling argument to say it’s too late to leave as we’re so heavily integrated.

Which if we do leave leads to what I’m suggesting. You have to frigg it so we’ve only left in name.

But, we’re all guessing (despite some people pretending otherwise).

I prefer my ‘Business will continue as usual due to mutual interests’.

If it were up to the businesses, you might have a point, but it’s not is it? It’s up to governments, and if the EU wishes to remain intact and avoid other large countries leaving, then they will make the obvious decision to demonstrate that leaving the EU comes at a cost. Instead of maintaining the status quo, it’s far more likely that they will seek to make an example out of the UK to prevent further destabilisation. And they have form on this, you only have to look to Greece to see their willingness to turn the screw when it’s required.

Somebody, please, I beg you, write a blocker for iOS.

Sorry, I just don’t buy into the all powerful European superstate intent on laying waste to the UK. It’s fantasy (whichever side is suggesting it).

Do you want threads or people blocked?

we’re all guessing

To some degree this is true but the status quo will remain and nothing will change as we are so big they cannot lose us is clearly amongst the least likely outcomes. Its practically a fairy tale.

I wasn’t going to bother, but if we both vote no maybe one of us can glory in their powers of prediction.

laying waste to the UK

Who’s talking about that? I’m talking about the imposition of modest trade tariffs of a small-ish percentage, which even though small will give a significant competitive advantage to EU business over UK businesses which will result in the UK economy contracting. As JY says, the question is by how much, not whether it will happen. You obviously think they will be charitable, but present no evidence or argument to back it up other than wishful thinking.