EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India?

No. India just makes itself hard to trade with. Prevarication, contradiction, bureaucracy etc. It was easier to push more through EU. Not looking forward to having to start on all these harder markets once our EU relationship is burned.

Trading and vesting in India is challenging. Nonetheless we have an active trade and investsment relationship. We are among the largest investors in each others economies and trade has increased rapidly. Sme bloke called Dave even took a trade mission ere six years ago and trade volumes doubled in the next five years. And guess what, we were members of the EU during the whole time.

stand corrected on the german defense spend, ta! 8)

stand corrected on the german defense spend, ta! [/I]

Also different countries include different things in their ‘defence’ budget, ie the US includes its Veterans costs, whereas with us they’re just a part of other Govt spending.

Good advice. 30 odd replies and there has yet to be anything concrete forwarded.
Come on brexiteers, evidence and facts, why is it a good idea? I want to know how it is going to work?

Here’s one while we are waiting

It’s good news if your revenues are in $ but your cost are in £. Instant boost as seen by FTSE 100 > FTSE 250

My revenues in £ costs in Euros.
I think it should also be remembered that the post brexit predictions are still only predictions, we have not brexited yet, so any current financial indicators do not support or undermine leave or remain predictions.

Oops you are not the wrong side of the “trade” and it hurts

But look on the bright side we are faking control now or will be.

Luckily my costs are less than 5% of my turnover, so I can bear it.
I would just like to know what the plans are, I kind of understand the benefits of EU membership, I want to understand what half the country think is the real tangible issue with EU membership and how they see that leaving will make things better overall.
If you read the press and internet media it leaves you none the wiser as to how brexit will improve things.
Does anyone here know?

So is it now a case of jumping into bed with Dumpf or buying some flowers for our EU neighbours and saying sorry.

IMO the posts have been moved a country mile and we need to consider which gang we want to be with.

No, of course not. We’re not the people who are going to decide, and the people who are going to decide have kept schtum. So no-one knows anything, which is a large part of the problem. And no-one knew anything BEFORE the vote either….

So is it now a case of jumping into bed with Dumpf or buying some flowers for our EU neighbours and saying sorry.

Well we are repeatedly told it won’t be the latter so it’s pants down folks.

Anyone looking forward to all the shitty meat we’ll be getting if/when we sign a trade deal with the US?

Those of us who want to eat safe, healthy food awoke to a nightmare on Tuesday, a chilling interview on Radio 4’s Today programme. Bob Young, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, made it crystal clear that any US trade deal struck by Theresa May would be contingent on the UK public stomaching imports of US foods that it has previously rejected: beef from cattle implanted with growth hormones, chlorine-washed chicken, and unlabelled genetically modified (GM) foods.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/britain-us-trade-deal-gm-food-eu-rules

It’s the guardian, so written from a certain angle. If anyone can point me in the direction of positive side of the story for animal welfare, food quality, antibiotic resistance, prospects of British farming’s ability to compete, etc, please do!

The only other side of the story I’ve seen is a tweet from NFU to a farmer querying why Martin Haworth was suggesting lowering standards.

“@NFUtweets Hi James, the #NFU is pursuing the best possible future for #British #farmers&growers-lower production standards is not on the agenda”.

lower production standards is not on the agenda

I suppose we could insist that our farmers stick to high production standards, yet still allow cheaply produced meat from other (non-EU) counties like the USA into the country in the future… but doubt this would end up being “the best possible future for British farmers”, unless the NFU think farmers are better of being pushed (even harder) out of farming and into other lines of work.

It’s hard for the NFU… they absolutely need to keep the government on side because the end of CAP will require new UK polices to be formed in the interest of their members… yet they know that the path the government is on is hugely damaging for their members… even if they are at odds with their members on that! Impossible conundrum. NFU leadership have some of the toughest jobs over the next 3+ years.

It has always been my opinion that meat and meat products imported into the UK should meet the same standards our farmers comply with.

Sadly, I think post Brexit the situation will be worse than it is now as we scramble for trading agreements. Ironic considering how many farmers want out of the EU.

Jamba, a large chunk of the govt contrib comes straight back in grants etc. The net effect is much smaller.

We get back about 60% of what we pay, £10bn is the rough net contribution I use (factcheck which I donate to says £8.5bn). I believe there are 30 differents ways of calculating our net contribution (that’s the EU’s estimate of the different ways) so it’s a right dogs breakfast which is part of the problem

Del my estimates of German / French spending some figures I have seen on local media and ties up with that net figure above. When the migrants first started coming in Germany wouldn’t give a figure other than €3bn for language teaching. I came up with 20-40 based on a per head cost of accomodation, medical, education and of course welfare. Germany has now given is figure of €20bn but IMO thats a big understatement.

NATO Germany spends about 1.1% only 5 of 30 (?) meet the 2% spending target. Of the spending 20% is to be on equipment. Being an anorak I have a copy of the NATO report. France doesn’t do too badly they are at 1.8% but many other wealthy European nations are way below also.

There are loads of schemes that we contribute to that are tied to the EU, but not a part of it, hence many ways to work out what our total contribution is. Also why it is hard to work out how much we will stop spending, as the hope* is that we can arrange to still be a part of many of these schemes after we Leave.

[ *not by you though, I suppose ]

We get back about 60% of what we pay,

Jambafacts aside that excludes all the collaborative and regulatory benefits we receive like membership of euratom, horzon2020 collaborations, European Medicines Agency, ERASMUS etc etc
And the cost of replicating the regulatory slack taken up by the EU, all government departments will have to expand , plus the monolithic brexit ministry….

I want to understand what half the country think is the real tangible issue with EU membership and how they see that leaving will make things better overall.

The main issue for most leavers is immigration, so less immigration = better overall.
Don’t ask them about any other aspects, they won’t have a clue but as long as the immigration number is down they are happy.

Why is less immigration better?

Foreigners = bad

Get with the program

“British jobs for British workers – mines a madras and a cobra while you are at it!”

Instant boost as seen by FTSE 100 > FTSE 250

The FTSE has gained 17% in the last year but the dollar has risen by 13%. The Dow has risen 26% in dollars and the DAX 19% in Euros. What that means is that FTSE companies are worth relatively less and are more vulnerable to take-over than a year ago. FTSE 250 companies make just over half their revenue in pounds. The boost is in fact a lag compared with other markets and measured in a falling currency. Anyone who chose to invest in Britain rather than the US or Germany over the last year has made roughly half what they could have done by investing US or Germany.

Erasmus is easy kimbers, there is a membership fee, ours will be something like £20m I think. All the other things yes I agree, a lot of smoke and mirrors so hard to know. What is a fact is that Germany and UK have been the major net contributors over the past 10 years. We have a trade deficit they have a trade surplus.

I understand this much…

jambalaya – Member
Erasmus is easy kimbers, there is a membership fee

so are you deducting that from your figures and of course you have a guarantee from the government?

Anyone who chose to invest in Britain rather than the US or Germany over the last year has made roughly half what they could have done by investing US or Germany.

UK investors are much better off, my pension is up significantly ie over 20% (invested in UK, US and Asia virtually zero in Europe). Most UK pension funds are up healthily, people are happy.

The FTSE has gained 17% in the last year but the dollar has risen by 13%. The Dow has risen 26% in dollars and the DAX 19% in Euros. What that means is that FTSE companies are worth relatively less and are more vulnerable to take-over than a year ago. FTSE 250 companies make just over half their revenue in pounds. The boost is in fact a lag compared with other markets and measured in a falling currency. Anyone who chose to invest in Britain rather than the US or Germany over the last year has made roughly half what they could have done by investing US or Germany.

how old fashioned!! 😉

Long $, FTSE 100
Short £, FTSE 250
Bingo

so are you deducting that from your figures and of course you have a guarantee from the government?

£20m pa is a rounding error. I am sure UK will be welcomed to carry on with Erasmus due to the high standing of our education plus of course the English language which students with an international outlook are keen to work on. I’d be 100% confident the UK Govt will continue with membership.

The EU budget is a rounding error

Erasmus is merely an irritant

rich people are happy.

ftfy

and poor people who don’t like foreigners

dont forget them kimbers, that was a past mistake

I was wondering what percentage of UK tax take £8.5b is, and how much additional tax take being part of the EU represents?

I may have an idea of the answer, but I’d love to hear yours – particularly the Brexies.

Erasmus is merely an irritant

That is a quote that sums up your STW persona, THM.

I watched TM (threads get closed if you name her) on the box the other day and thought “this is THM, does he write her speeches or something”.

I enjoyed my Erasmus exchange. 1990 it was

Edukator – did you engage your brain before writing the crass attempt at an insult? Do you not get sarcasm?

I have argued strongly on here about the value of Erasmus schemes and given that both Jamba’s and my kids have benefited from it, that we should ensure that it remains available. I am a strong supporter. So wind it in, unless you are just trying to lose the “reformed” tag.

In answer to your other silliness, no why? That’s what her grunts do.

oh touched a nerve there has he and given the efforts you go to get a rise oh the irony

anyway there is no way you could be mistaken for TM as she is at least open about being a tory party supporter

I assume you appreciate the sarcasm and are laughing now eh as you are many things but not a hypocrite 😉

Another piece on Greece. Familar refrain, Greece has met onky 1/3rd of the goals set for it to receive the next natch of funding. iMF says debt is unsustainable and eurozone must agree forgiveness (politically very tricky with elections looming, ie admitting the money was mostly a gift and not a loan).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-30/greek-drama-returns-imf-schism-greece-may-jeopardize-bailout

Seems to me that Erasmus is just another of these special interests that certain folk want subsidies put towards.

Not sure why it is any more ‘deserving than the others? Although I guess that since it’s seen as something elitist than it’s odds on it’ll be supported.

More interested in their reports on German and French inflation and bond yields 😉

The IMF (of which we are a member) is saying nothing new. Creditors will have to take a hit. Good job that we are not a member of the EZ then!

If you lend to people who cant pay you back and create a system that cannot recycle surpluses you end up getting bitten on the ar$e

is the ZH webpage a new version, its as bad as the new STW one on a Mac? I havent been on for a month or so.