EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Have we covered the Out fantasy that we could negotiate similar trade agreements to Norway when
a) the rest of the EU will be mightily cheesed off
b) we will be in competition with the rest of the EU as a Financial Centre; so Dublin / Frankfurt will be developed

Additionally our anit-EU biased press never quite manages to run a “what the EU have done for us” story… turns out it’s quite a lot

Additionally I’m guessing Scotland will definitely want to leave the rUK as they seem quite keen on the EU.

Edit – as to the H&S & Human Rights issues; the reason our H&S is good is often because we actually implement what the EU tells us to. It’s not like the UK gov’t did it out of the kindness of their hearts

Do people seriously think we could go it alone and have the same negotiating power as the EU? they are the single biggest trading bloc in the world, with huge purchasing power.

UKIPs answer is to draw upon the common wealth- that very well known group of economically powerful states. It is a crazy idea.

To think Britain will be able to go about its business and do as we please, is BS of the highest order. We live in a highly globalised world, with institutions such as the IMF and world bank to think about. We are a slave to the global market.

The EU also has done a good job in protecting our rights, and holding Britsh governments to account over poor governance. Just look the environmental issues.

Out.

we’re looking into Child Benefit changes and apparently if someone is over in the UK they can claim Child Benefit for their children even if they live in, say Poland, Greece etc. – surely that’s not right?

Apparently it is, assuming the parents are paying NI. Works both ways, though – if your kids live abroad you can still receive it.

The two camps need to be careful in this debate.

The ‘in’ camp need to avoid the usual ‘you’d be an idiot to vote out’ turn of phrase (seen quite a lot on here, by the way..).

The ‘out’ camp need avoid the Daily Wail ‘immigrants ate my hamster’ headlines.

Interestingly, as older people tend be more likely to vote, and according to the BBC older people are more inclined to vote ‘out’ does that make it less of an obvious win for the in brigade?

Junkyard – lazarus

All this tariffs nonsense is a red herring as well

I not you chose to not refute the counter to your point but decided to change the argument.
The EU is bigger than us we are leaving and giving them two fingers but they will make sure we manage to keep the trade aspect of the EU deal without paying anything in because of some car manufacturers. Yew that sounds so much more credible

I have no idea why people think this is even remotely a likely outcome

Its like imagining you will get divorced but the ex will still do your washing and cook your tea.

In the separation they will negotiate harder than we do and economically they are far more powerful than we are

Its like a supplier thinking they can bully Tesco just after having really pissed them off and taken billions from the table.

I didn’t refute the counter because I think you are probably right – the Japanese may well pull out of the UK but I don’t think anyone can categorically say what might happen. I extended the discussion however to make a point that in the long term this may not be as disasterous as many are making out.

I’m really only playing Devil’s Advocate here because I really think it’s a foregone conclusion any way that we will be staying in. The opinion polls whilst reasonably close (52% in vs 48% out) still indicate a pro-EU balance I think. I’m also convinced an “out” vote wouldn’t result in us acually leaving the EU. I myself would probably favour staying in but there is an awful lot about the EU that I do object to.

I think if you could poll people (maybe 20 years ago) on whether or not they wanted the EU to develop to this position then the vote would be very different.

At least General Franco fought for what he believed …

Imagine if he won then the joke will be for the other side.

Winner(s) takes all.

Favourite chewy post EVA! 10/10.

Binners the result of the vote on the EU in/out is going to last longer than one parliamentary term. So you may not like the Tories, but I doubt they’ll be in charge for ever.

with institutions such as the IMF and world bank

Both of which the UK was instrumental in helping to set up and still has a major role, there is no EU seat. So what is your point?

The UK has effectively been globalised and into free trade for over 100 years, often dragging along others who have been more insular.

That’s not really an argument for or against being in the EU, but I the pros and cons of the EU and business aren’t as clear as some on both sides of the debate try to make out.

… although as far as my own situation is concerned, it doesn’t matter one way or the other as I’m planning on going to live there…

I’ll be a *GASP* immigrant. 😆

No it’s not. This country is a net importer of just about everything.

Really? Shit, we are in trouble….

No country is seriously talking about going it alone BTW

As for those quoting EU funding for various things? That is our cash coming back after deductions for EU fraud and bureaucracy.

That’s true yes, but those things in those places that benefit from them would never be funded if left to the UK government to decide. So it’s worth it to me.

My point is- we cannot simply think we can go it alone and retain every single bit of sovereignty. I am fully aware of the history of the IMF, World Bank, Bretton Woods etc.

If we are no longer part of the EU, we will still be highly influenced by other global institutions.

It is an argument that the out campaign often say, that we will be free to make all of our own decisions. We cannot.

Really? Shit, we are in trouble….

I was being facetious. My point is that anyone who thinks we can resist or turn back the tide of greater global integration is living in fantasy land. I guess the question is whether the EU is the right mechanism for managing the transition. I don’t know, but I do know that the people wanting us to leave are not doing so because they want to do it better.

out, purely to get another referendum in scotland 😀

Don’t know if its related to EU rules, but the news last night (or maybe previous night, its all a blur of coke and hookers at the moment) said we’re looking into Child Benefit changes and apparently if someone is over in the UK they can claim Child Benefit for their children even if they live in, say Poland, Greece etc. – surely that’s not right?

So to ‘save’ £30m pa we’re going to…

Seems iffy odds to me.

In. Mostly ‘cos of holidays.

You can slice the economics either way to suit your perspective, regardless the UK economy would survive and continue much of a muchness. A bit like the Scots independence thing this really an emotional/political decision and I think there’s more linking us than dividing us.

Can’t trust the EU to best represent the UK’s interests, can’t trust our politicians with free rein over our rights.

I’m loath to admit it (it does feel like my arm is being twisted) but we seem to be reliant upon these symbiotic opposing forces to create some kind of balance in this complicated mess, inevitably compromised as it will be. Another dog shit sandwich isn’t it 😐

Funny how no one talks about the social, cultural, and keeping the peace aspect of it. Maybe it’s taken for granted now but it wasn’t that long ago that Europe was killing millions of it’s citizens in massive wars. Ironic really that it’s greatest success is now not even considered as one of it’s benefits.

‘you’d be an idiot to vote out’ turn of phrase (seen quite a lot on here, by the way..).

I think they are saying some of the reasons are idiotic and some of the moist vociferous anti EU voices. Its a voew that has much merit if you look at UKIP

I extended the discussion however to make a point that in the long term this may not be as disastrous as many are making out.

In the long run we will cope the issue is what happen in the 10-20 years it takes us to adapt. I think the impact will initially be bad as we need to change how and who we trade with.

I think if you could poll people (maybe 20 years ago) on whether or not they wanted the EU to develop to this position then the vote would be very different.

Agreed but it is not going back to being just a right wing trading club so we need to either accept this or get off the toilet.
Cheers for explaining your views /what you are doing

I’m split but the worry is that voting will be driven by Daily Mail, Mirror and Sun headlines which means it will turn into a shambles. In some ways it’s a shame Dave is trying to dress up his absolute failure in the way that he is. I suspect that will drive more to vote out than to understand the facts and make a more informed decision.

For those voting they want out because of the immigration aspect should consider that Norway, not a member of the EU, has 7.38 EU migrants per 1,000 population. Switzerland, also not a member but has access to EU markets, has 11.33 migrants per 1,000. The UK currently only has 2.48 migrants per 1,000. Doesn’t really stack up with how the papers would lead you to believe does it?

For whoever it was that was asking timescale; who knows, it could be 20 years. We’d have to adapt most of our legislation to remove EU directives and EU treaties with the rest of the world would cease to apply to the UK. We would have to negotiate the future of the 2 million brits who live in the EU. WTO rules state we have no right of access to EU markets so that would have to be negotiated and we would have to make significant payments as Norway and Switzerland do.

Lastly I suspect we’d also get a short/long term sterling crisis if we leave which would make everyone’s enduro ‘sled’ more expensive.

I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying “out” would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn’t join the Euro…

Isn’t that NATO though and the focus on the common enemy of the USSR. Remember Germany wasn’t allowed an army operating outside its borders and still has a US and UK military presence. The EU didn’t stop the Yugoslavia crisis.

Klunk – Member

I found the report r4 did on Norway revealing, the infamous fax machine and the cost for them to deal with the EU, 7th largest contributor and no sway/vote/influence on how it’s run and they still have to implement a lot of the directives… That’ll go down like a lead balloon with the kippers if that’s the result.

I just listened to the Radio 4 program that Klunk linked to on page 2. Very interesting from both sides of the argment and just shows it’s not a cut-and-dried decision either way really. Obviously the UK is not the same as Norway and the issues would be different here.

I think if we stay in we will tend to just bumble along as we have done in the EU thus far which would be a mistake. Coming out would be a very interesting proposition though.

Lastly I suspect we’d also get a short/long term sterling crisis if we leave which would make everyone’s enduro ‘sled’ more expensive.

This is one of the most interesting aspects, there is the immediate effect and then the long term. It could be good for the likes of Orange bikes and Jaguar-LandRover.

Actually Jaguar Land Rover sales figures by number of vehicles are interesting in terms of this debate, for the year of 2014 they broke down as the following:

China 122k
Overseas 96.5k
Europe 86.3k
UK 82.8k
USA 75k

A girl I know went to stay in Spain for a year only to hate the place like plague after a year, because the people there treated her (British) like “money printing machine”.

I think a lot depends how you interact with the “natives”. My sister and brother in law have lived in a village over there for some years and love it. They made a point of being part of the community and not live in a Brits ghetto.

I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying “out” would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn’t join the Euro…

Who specifically are you talking about?

bowglie – Member
The Japanese companies manufacture here to get around EU quotas, so they’re not going to hang around if the UK leaves the EU.

Toyoda has said that Toyota will stay regardless.

Ninfan its not helpful to build up straw men then attack them with made up events that never happened

I dont think anyone is really saying it would be a disaster – though this may hinge on the exact meaning of the word disaster- just that it would be worse and have some major implications in the short to medium term.
Take the cars example above They will stay initially but they are less likely to invest in the future and more likely to withdraw if we leave the EU. Not a disaster but hardly good news.

What I do find interesting is that many of the anti EU are also very vocal in being pro the UK union

The very arguments they used then are now being ignored in this one 😉

and vice versa 😉

POssibly/probably

Interesting isnt it how we can reverse roles/arguments/principles and just make base emotive decisions about freedom 😉

TBH i was pro Scottish as i would vote for anything that made a tory govt largely impossible but I was not a passionate indy

On this i was pro the EU but ernie made a good point once that moved me to uncertain. Either way it wont be a massive endorsement whichever way i vote though stay is probably the more likely – mainly as it would annoy farage and loads of others i have no time nor respect for.

I think it’s typical of Britain’s view of its own membership of the EU that we chose now to have an existential membership crisis.
The EU is currently dealing with major, once in a generation problems; the migrant crisis, the instability of the world economy, Greece and an increasingly belligerent Russia.
We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.
You can almost imagine the atmosphere in the Council of Europe summit when all the leaders are debating all the above problems, then Call me Dave puts his hand up and says,
“Can I talk about an important issue?”
“Go on”, says Donald Tusk.
“I really need to get an agreement here about all those EU citizens coming to the UK, working, paying tax and NI, then claiming the tax credits they’re entitled to, it has to stop.”
“Sorry, Dave, but can’t this wait, we do have a few more important things to discus.”
“No.” Squeaks Dave, “if I don’t go back to London with an agreement on this, then the UK may be forced to leave the EU, that’s how seriously we take tax credits.”
If the UK isn’t willing to take part in the EU properly, it should leave it.

The eu was a nice idea but it hasn’t worked, so OUT as there’s no point flogging a dead horse.

This is all academic though as the referendum will be fixed to get whatever result the government wants

Rubbish – the government is split!

In, I deal with a lot of EU driven policy and legislation through work. The problems don’t usually stem from the EU but the way we in the UK elect to implement it.

I’ve not seen good evidence that persuades me that out is better. The arguments seem to be limited to eugh foreigners and politicians.

Greece and an increasingly belligerent Russia.

The EU is by no means blameless for either of these situations!

The EU is by no means blameless for either of these situations

I’m not suggesting that the EU is blameless in any of these situations, that wasn’t the point I was trying to make…

We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.

Not strictly true we pledged £2.3 billion and have ~ 3 ships in the med picking people up.

I’d argue there hasn’t been a coordinated EU response, we have Germany doing one thing and others doing something else. In fact the lack of joined up thinking is making a big problem worse.

.

This is all academic though as the referendum will be fixed to get whatever result the government wants

Michael Portillo on “This Week” reckoned that people in the know say that if the vote was an “out” vote, the establishment would drag its heels, perhaps have a second vote and generally not leave.

I can see why. How much legislation/treaty agreements would need to be rewritten, and how many civil servants and lawers are available to do it?

As for my personal opinion, I haven’t got a Scooby.

As for my personal opinion, I haven’t got a Scooby. My hopes that there would be an impartial layman’s explanation of the issues published by the civil service to inform voters aint gonna happen.

I think all the issues are far too complex for anyone to really understand and predict. I just read this BBC article which seems reasonably balanced but really am still none the wiser.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

I think it will come down to a few emotive issues like immigration for instance which a lot of people in the street have a knee-jerk reaction to without really understanding the pros and cons. A bit like the General Election then when people vote for “that nice Mr. Blair” for instance without any inkling what he stands for.