EU Referendum – are you in or out?

If we had started assuming worst case no-deal we would then know the areas of most pain to try and negotiate up from

The important word there is TRY.

I still do not understand how a second referendum is undemocratic. Surely it is the very essence of democracy.

The country voted for Brexit without understanding what that would look like. Now we know what the deal looks like, ask us again.

More importantly, is Mark Francois actual dwarf?

But why would we start by assuming the worst position, when we already knew that we’d have £350m per week for the NHS and the rest of the world was crying out to give us better trade deals than the EU had?

Surely no-one could be suggesting that these things weren’t true…?

you have made up uour mind as to what outcome each future event will be, it’s a bold claim with so many variables in play.

I have not. I just want to know how a confidence vote suddenly creates the support and means to stop no deal. So far it just looks like wishful thinking that Parliament can use a confidence vote to stop no deal… which is why I would be happier either for parliament to set out now to obtain the means to force government to revoke if it comes to the final hour (the amendment that Labour whipped to abtstain on) or for someone to lay out how no deal can be stopped, without reference to May doing the “right thing”.

More importantly, is Mark Francois actual dwarf?

Every time he pops un on telly to say something unbelievably stupid I can only think of….

Nice attempt to blame remoaners for this farce @Turnerguy

But starting from no deal as a base is bonkers

& Economic naivety of it aside, bit hard when the brexiteers had been saying

‘the day after the vote we’d hold all the cards’

‘we don’t need to plan for no deal because we’re going to get a great deal’

‘absolutely no one is talking about jeopardising our place in the single market’s

‘if I were negotiating Brexit my first stop wouldn’t be Brussels, it would be Berlin where German CEOs would be knocking on Merkel’s door demanding a deal’

The revisionism of brexiters pretending that no deal was their plan all along or that negotiating a deal was forced on them by remoaners🙄, is just cowardice: refusing to accept responsibility for the mess the brexiters have created.

We’re crashing out without a deal next Friday. No question. For anything else to happen would demand a degree of competence in our politicians and for them to put the interests of themselves and their parties behind those of the country

Anyone reckon thats going to happen?

Today May has called a 5 hour cabinet meeting. The first 3 hours are a ‘political’ cabinet, which means that there are no civil servants present and they discuss purely political, Tory party matters.In last weeks meeting they discussed plans for a general election.

When they’ve done that a mere 2 hours will be dedicated to the total and utter shambles we’re in.

That, more than anything, sums up where our politicians priorities are

Bull Shit!! We have other mechanisms

Calm down man! An election is the only mechanism which will be tolerated and recognised by parliament and the electorate. The reason parliament can’t come to a decision is because the numbers don’t work. The only way to change that is to have an election to change the parliamentary arithmetic. If May hadn’t thrown away her majority and ransomed herself to the DUP we’d now be debating the finer points of trade negotiations.

An election is the only mechanism which will be tolerated and recognised by parliament and the electorate.

What an odd thing to claim.

If you mean that May would rather call an election than risk putting her approach as regards Brexit to the people directly, then I’m sure you’re correct. The same is also true for Corbyn as well. But many others in parliament know why that is, don’t agree, and are in favour of a referendum. As for the electorate… we know that a general election does not take the decision on Brexit away from May&Corbyn, so changes little. Now, if Watson is listened to, and Labour policy is changed to supporting a referendum on whatever a Labour government cooks up as regards brexit, then a general election becomes interesting.

But starting from no deal as a base is bonkers

why?

it gives a known baseline to work up from as oppossed to where we are now. It makes it clear the pain everyone is going to feel unless a trade deal is put in place, and let’s them plan for it if one doesn’t occur.

if we had have started from that position then it would be clearer what that meant now, and it would be easier to give people an option in a second referendum – revoke or take this as it’s the best we could make.

it might even have worked out better for the remoaners, but as it is we are in exactly the same position of uncertainty as before.

it gives a known baseline

No, it does not.

In that, without any deals, we have no idea how any country in the world will treat us. We do not set their trade policies for them. The no deal scenario is just a world of unknowns, where we have no control or foresight of how anyone will act towards us. It is one huge unknown, with no certainty of anything. Fun for speculators, but it is not a known stable basecase which we can compare to or build up from.

An election is the only mechanism which will be tolerated and recognised by parliament and the electorate.

What an odd thing to claim.

Well this debate is all about dressing opinion up as fact.

As for your other point yes in the event of no confidence we require may to act in the national interest. Even if the likes of Ken Clark and Hammond have to drive her to the meeting and sit down with her holding the letter for her.

As for starting with no deal itbsoylds like a plan from the disaster capitalists which should be delivered to a full rendition of Rule Britania

looks like Hammond is going to table to motion

For you the public to accept the special prize of maybots deal

you couldnt actually make this shit up

eh?

Big cabinet meeting this morning… ministers will be spelling out the options to May… that is one of them (even if others want to pretend that it isn’t).

If we started at no deal, surely the car manufacturers wouldve just started packing u on day 1?

as it stands I cant see them not starting to wind back production soon

Sorry @ferals

looks like he is going to table a motion for a referendum for the people of the UK to decide if maybots special prize is worthy or not

best get a wriggle in before next week

bloody phone doesn’t seem to work with popups appearing all over

I still do not understand how a second referendum is undemocratic. Surely it is the very essence of democracy.

It’s not, that’s the problem with ‘alternative facts’ politics. If you don’t like something, you just keep saying the opposite when you’re uninterrupted and refuse to answer direct questions if it’s a two-way conversation.

Worse still Leaver members of the public don’t believe it either, but few will admit it.

it gives a known baseline to work up from as oppossed to where we are now. It makes it clear the pain everyone is going to feel unless a trade deal is put in place, and let’s them plan for it if one doesn’t occur.

This would only make sense if the original referendum had been sold as exit with no deal unless we negotiate something better – it wasn’t, it was sold as a completely unrealistic ideal of the UK picking and choosing what we’d want and the EU just accepting it. Unfortunately a large proportion of the 17.4m were gullible enough to believe it.

As for the mess we’re in now, the only way I can see avoiding no deal is for May to drop trying to get her deal through and support a second referendum (possibly with her deal as an option, but it can only be a two option referendum without causing chaos). I haven’t seen any evidence she’s going to do that though, she seems to have dug her heels in to such an extent she’d rather crash out with a no deal and let someone else pick up the pieces than risk being seen to change her stance at this late hour.

cheers @mickmcd, I figured that was what you meant, but couldn’t see anything in the news when i looked briefly.

looks like he is going to table a motion for a referendum for the people of the UK to decide if maybots special prize is worthy or not

best get a wriggle in before next week

Got a source for that??

Sounds like a favourable outcome, I do keep coming across remainers who seem to have given up but I hope with the chance of revoke on the table they could whip some decent support for it.

@ferrals

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/02/brexit-vote-latest-news-philip-hammond-propose-putting-theresa/

We’re crashing out without a deal next Friday. No question. For anything else to happen would demand a degree of competence in our politicians and for them to put the interests of themselves and their parties behind those of the country

Anyone reckon thats going to happen?

I’m not brave enough to say ‘not a chance’ but it’s unlikely. We have a motion in place to avoid it.

There’s only a few members of the right of the Tories who want it.

Given the hard choice between revoke, or hard brexit – the house will fall on revoke and blame each other for stealing Brexit, May will likely take the brunt of it.

I think, on balance, in my completely unprofessional view we’re looking at a long delay with either Ref2 or GE, although I still can’t understand why the Tories would go for an GE unless they’re going to deselect the ERG.

We have a motion in place to avoid it.

Labour whipped to abstain on the motion… that one is dying.

There’s only a few members of the right of the Tories who want it.

170 Tory MPs signed a ridiculous letter saying we must leave soon come what may, and arguing against a long extension.

Just because most MPs across the house are against no deal, do not assume that most Tories are. And, ultimately, May is party first, country second.

(Edit: Parliament third?)

It makes it clear the pain everyone is going to feel unless a trade deal is put in place

Pain? What pain? Where’s my unicorn?

I still can’t understand why the Tories would go for an GE unless they’re going to deselect the ERG.

David Davis warns 20 Tories could vote to bring down the government over Brexit https://t.co/7IDrrA98ri

— HuffPost UK Politics (@HuffPostUKPol) April 2, 2019

It does really depend who is in charge doesn’t it. It would confirm quite how delusional some of the ERG are that they think they could either force no deal via it or come back with a sweeping majority behind BoJo or Davis and enact the Brexit some idiot called David failed to negotiate last time

The Tory Membership are gagging for no deal, they believe the BS of Davis & co (despite the obvious contradictions & failure to deliver what they said pre-ref)

I think the Tpry MPs are idiotic enough to make it happen

(civil servants are busy writing letters now to show the future inquiry that they advised this was a really bad idea)

Did anyone hear DD interviewed on Radio 4 this morning. He sounded so delusional, like a resident of Sleepy Meadows home for the terminally bewildered, who’d been on the sherry a bit early

‘come along now Mr Davis…. time for your medication…..’

No, it does not.

In that, without any deals, we have no idea how any country in the world will treat us. We do not set their trade policies for them. The no deal scenario is just a world of unknowns, where we have no control or foresight of how anyone will act towards us.

err, it isn’t – we start with WTO – that’s what it is for.

If we started at no deal, surely the car manufacturers wouldve just started packing u on day 1?

that is the pain – we know what the costs of the tarriffs would be and the impact and so we enter into negotiations to minimise the impact. That’s like trade deals the world over.

err, it isn’t – we start with WTO – that’s what it is for.

You’ve drunk the Kool-Aid. Read more about what WTO is… I suggest avoiding UK focused sources of information.

as it stands I cant see them not starting to wind back production soon

as would be likely if their country gained a free-trade agreement with the EU direct – oh look – that’s happened, and look what Honda are doing…

why build cars here, with low-productivity british workers, when they could build more reliable cars back home?

that is the pain – we know what the costs of the tarriffs would be and the impact and so we enter into negotiations to minimise the impact. That’s like trade deals the world over.

yes and the average FTA takes 7 years to negotiate & is 100s of pages long (TTIP was 15000 before it was ditched, CETA 3500)

Its just taken our MPs 3 years to not agree a 500page Withdrawl Agreement that is considerable less complex than an FTA

and our priority would be the one with the EU- 50% of our trade, the EU that we’d just really really pissed off

meanwhile UK manufacturing & farming would be at the mercy of every nation having complete leverage over us

how naive are you to think that this is an option that doesnt see the UK in the same political black hole for the next 10, 20 years?

Oh ffs we did this months ago! WTO needs a hard border and controls in NI, the Good Friday Agreement precludes this. Square that circle.

And a50 should not have been triggered until a solution for the border had been found.

So that would be never then. Only way is to maintain regulatory and customs alignment with RoI, inc. FoM

You’ve drunk the Kool-Aid. Read more about what WTO is…

it is about trade, not about trade and politics which is what the EU is.

Maybe if it had stuck to trade then there wouldn’t have been this problem.

we start with WTO

TurnerGuy, do you know exactly how WTO tariffs and rules will affect your business?

as would be likely if their country gained a free-trade agreement with the EU direct – oh look – that’s happened, and look what Honda are doing…

and you cant pretend that Brexit wasnt a factor in their decision either

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45558424

good dismantling of the WTO fantasy here

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/sites/european-institute/files/sir_ivan_rogers_lecture_ucl_22012019.pdf