EU Referendum – are you in or out?

To stay in the customs union you have to accept freedom of movement. Corbyn has put this as a red line. You can’t have one without the other

Not true. If the set of red lines given to the EU was different they would come back with a different deal.

Red unicorns, comrade?

The 4 freedoms of the EU are indivisible. Its a simple premise, isn’t it. And one the EU absolutely will not compromise on. He won’t get a better deal. he’ll get the same deal. There’s no cherrypicking. Any other belief is pure ‘cake and eat it’ fantasy

is going to keep a Tory party in for a long time.

If we drop out with no deal, personally I think the Tory party will most likely collapse.

The 4 freedoms of the EU are indivisible. Its a simple premise, isn’t it. And one the EU absolutely will not compromise on. He won’t get a better deal. he’ll get the same deal. There’s no cherrypicking. Any other belief is pure ‘cake and eat it’ fantasy

As I said, not true but you carry on in your own little world.

“The four freedoms are indivisible” is very much the truth, wishing for anything else is just that, wishing.

RBS – we’ve doubled are profits in the run up to Brexit so it might be bad.

For some people perhaps.

As I said, not true but you carry on in your own little world.

What? The real one? On balance I think thats the best option.

The EU has re-stated that freedom of trade goes hand in hand with freedom of movement – Its both or neither – countless times. Sticking your fingers in your ears and going LA-LA-LA-I’M NOT LISTENING isn’t going to change that

The Corbynite idea that if you want the same unrealistic ‘cakist’ results as Boris Johnson, you just need to ask them a bit of a nicer manner, is pure fantasy, and would end up with us in exactly the same place

“The four freedoms are indivisible” is very much the truth, wishing for anything else is just that, wishing.

Until you actually come up with what you want and discuss with EU you don’t know that. They may say they are as a statement to steer what people think they can have (and it has clearly worked) but with the right compromises you will never know what could be done.

What? The real one?

Nope, your world of bitter anti Corbyn filled hate.

Or as we know it…realism

Until you actually come up with what you want and discuss with EU you don’t know that. They may say they are as a statement to steer what people think they can have (and it has clearly worked) but with the right compromises you will never know what could be done.

You are Boris Johnson and I claim my knee-trembler over the desk of your parliamentary office 😀

Maybe Kerley is Barnier in disguise.

Honestly it is beyond a joke now.

Red unicorns, comrade?

The EU have inidicated that the customs union idea is do-able. Why is it unicorns? It really puzzles me that you reject the only sensible pragmatic proposal on the table which has been received positively by the EU. So again, please, what are the other options?

The Corbynite idea that if you want the same unrealistic ‘cakist’ results as Boris Johnson

This is getting silly. Labour party policy is not that far away from May’s deal. The only difference is the customs union. The EU have indicated they are willing to talk about a customs union. So a question, if May was willing to shift on the customs union and do a deal with labour, would you support it?

Or as we know it…realism

Or as it’s otherwise known, sitting on your backside and sniping from the sidelines

Anyway, I reckon most of us would describe ourselves as realists. We can’t all be right.

Maybe, just maybe, Mr Corbyn can see all of what you describe Binners and says “bring it on”. Perhaps he sees himself as the new Lenin, ready to lead the workers of the UK on a glorious revolution, but knows that things still aint bad enough yet to kick start that process. Having a ultra hard brexit and a period of ERG led “Provisional Government” is what he views as a necessity in order to finally achieve his ultimate goal.

Worrying times

Edit: God, that moved quick, I was replying to Binners post at the end of the previous page, went for a cuppa and to check the sheep, and finished this post… almost another page in between 🙂

The EU have indicated that the customs union idea is do-able. Why is it unicorns?

Because the first half of the sentence “the customs union idea is do-able….” is followed by the second part of the sentence “….if you accept freedom of movement”

Because the 4 freedoms of the EU are indivisible.As has been stated (and backed up) about twenty million times by the EU.

Dear god! It must be bloody exasperating being an EU negotiator, having to repeat this truism every 5 minutes for 3 years and it’s still not sinking in?

This is getting silly. Labour party policy is not that far away from May’s deal.

Yet the bit where it differs – remaining in the customs union – is an enormous issue because…. at the risk of sounding repetitive…. it would mean retaining freedom of movement. The two things are… erm… ‘indivisible’ (theres that word agin)

Which is exactly why May won’t even countenance it. Because her red line is to end freedom of movement. Which is also Jeremy’s red line. Ergo….

Corbyn’s primary aim is to hold his party together.

This whole sorry farce is about keeping the Tories together.

Here’s a question…the two party system is ****…but what do you replace it with

Lots of successful countries have a history of broad coalition government. Looking at the current shower of shit running things and in opposition, I’d say that, and PR, is exactly what this country needs.

Sadly we have a matter of days before crashing out of the EU so there seems little time available for a wholesale restructuring of the UK political system. That is something which should have been done decades ago but, as ever, party comes first.

What would you presume if Jacob Rees Mogg started waltzing about in Hugo Boss leathers?

I would presume not to have a clue what kind of point you are trying to make??!!

It’s a “Godwinesque” reference.

Good discussion going on here but I had to check whether a CU allows or excludes FOM. Found this……

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/customs-union-single-market-whats-the-difference-theresa-may-speech-brexit-negotiations-a7532136.html

If the article is accurate and I read it correctly, how does Jeremy plan to execute his CU with no FOM?

I think the comparison with Stalin is unfair both in political and dress terms. This fits better:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/uncyclopedia/images/d/d5/CorbynLenin1.jpg/revision/latest/scale-to-width-down/300?cb=20150727074641(those were pics of Lenin and his sosie Corby if they’d worked)

Someone mentioned venn diagrams on the thread about the 15-year-old (now 19)Londoner. So I did one. An hour or so of work whilst listening to a TV docu about on-line dating, prostituion honey pots, lying dating agencies etc. CFH will call snooping but all the information is in the fist pages of this thread and any random global warming, immigration, misogynist, petrolhead, road safety or pocket fasco thread.

In the first 35 pages of this thread 78 people declared themselves in or made it clean they were in favour of in. Well in the venn diagram these same people are likely to be in favour of doing something about global warming, respect women, firm but fair on immigration, drive a practical car sensibly, expats and are politicaly centre right or left.

In the 49 outs there are the five of the most rabid petrol heads, a few outspoken macho types, the extremes of left and right but mainly right, the benefits fraud obsessives (the reason for one voting Brexit), the xenophobes, the hanging-is-too-good-for-them types.

There were of course some who didn’t give straight answer or didn’t know. On the basis of my venn diagrams I’ve worked out that two ultimately voted in and the rest voted out.

I’d give more detail but don’t want to upset the mods or make this place anymore conflictual than it already is. This thread is something of a santuary, the good guys still post, the extremists have made fools of themselves and gone completely or avoid the thread. The leavers who’ve posted (and made fools of themselves) in recent pages didn’t post in the early pages.

The dickery around Brexit seems to be rubbing off on other subjects of debate; dickery is the ‘in’ social trend.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/14/corbyn-to-hold-brexit-talks-with-barnier-and-verhofstadt-next-week

“Barnier raised the Labour party’s ideas as a way to secure parliament’s support when he dined with the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, on Monday in Brussels, EU sources said.”

“When the European council president, Donald Tusk, directly suggested to May last week that Corbyn’s Brexit plan might be a way out of the deadlock, sources said May did not respond.”

I remember playing this game of semantics with THM 1000 pages back.. (does everyone remember the free trade agreement vs a free trade agreement?)

Just for clarification. We are currently in “THE Customs Union”, which requires freedom of movement.

It is also possible to be in “A Customs Union” (such as the Turkey model) which does not ask for FoM

I read a good piece yesterday about why the Turkey model isn’t acceptable to most UK politicians and why it certainly doesn’t fix the Irish Border issue unless ALL goods, including agriculture, are included. Without agriculture as a bargaining chip, it will be very difficult for the UK to get free trade agreements with most of the world as the great plan is to allow cheap food imports (a great carrot for the populace) in return for free access for banking and services (great for the city and the rich elite)

Just for clarification. We are currently in “THE Customs Union”, which requires freedom of movement.

It is also possible to be in “A Customs Union” (such as the Turkey model) which does not ask for FoM

I was just about to post this. My understanding is that Corbyn wants out of THE customs union but wants to retain a DIFFERENT customs union. Maybe that one does come with red unicorns attached, I don’t know.

And it was all going so well wasn’t it. Just a few more houses needed building and insulating which would have been a great boost to an already prosperous economy.

My understanding is that Corbyn wants out of THE customs union but wants to retain a DIFFERENT customs union.

Of course he does, that’s the policy after all. I was kind of operating under the assumption that everyone already understood this. Hence why all this frothing about FOM and unicorns is silly. It’s illustrative that even though the EU have said they are willing discuss ‘A’ customs union, some on here have already dismissed it for no apparent reason other than their own inflexibility.

So the question again, a little rephrased (I’ll keep asking BTW til someone answers): If the EU after their discussions with Corbyn indicate that a customs union is possible without FOM, will the naysayers then support it?

So far Brexit has cost – £80bn & that doesn’t include all the hours people have spent on this thread…

Barnier won’t change his mind, Dazh. Because the UK is not going to do what a customs union requires – pay substantial sums of money for the privilege. Corby would suffer the same fate a Lenin if he tried that, and he can’t because he not in power.

Too much speculation, not a hint of pragmatism.

Jeremy’s CU proposal speech included zero tariffs, as far as I can see the EU would need to include FOM.

indicate that a customs union is possible without FOM

There’s been no indication from the EU that they would would negotiate such a deal, has there?

May has one tactic: Run down the clock until there is nothing left but her shitty deal.

Corbyn has one tactic: Let the Tories own Brexit and then blame them for the mess in the hopes of winning an election in the enduing mess.

Both want Brexit.

Everything else is just noise

I’m now also thoroughly confused about my life choices given that I’m a staunchly remain social justice warrior who drives a Focus ST.

Maybe Edukator can tell me where I’m going wrong.

There’s been no indication from the EU that they would would negotiate such a deal, has there?

The only indication is that they are willing to discuss it. They know what the position is, so the fact that they haven’t dismissed it out of hand as they have with the backstop changes at least show there’s a possibility of a deal. That’s not to say it will happen of course, but they should at least try.

But they should at least try.

Yes agreed, given that limiting FOM was in the original treaty anyway. I agree that Labour would come out with a deal more better suited to the vast majority of the population, but time will run out before we get there, and I don’t think an extension is possible.

Great, it’s sunny and Friday, and yet I’ve still managed to make myself depressed

OK so here’s an idea which avoids the transitional period altogether and avoids the pesky backstop.

1. Revoke A50.
2. Set up a Royal Commission to investigate the ACTUAL advantage/disadvantages of leaving the EU.
3. At the end of the commission period (for sake of argument 2 years), apply the findings.

Maybe Edukator can tell me where I’m going wrong.

The Focus obviously. But you’ll grow out of it unless you’re bipolar. 😉

Edit: and you didn’t even post on the running-over-kids-outside-schools-is-the kids’-fault thread. Call yourself a petrolhead, pfft.

but time will run out before we get there, and I don’t think an extension is possible.

I’m actually pretty relaxed about that. The stakes are so high that they’ll agree some sort of deal or extension rather than go over the cliff. The complete breakdown of the western European commercial supply chain will concentrate a few minds, and if there’s one thing the EU are masters at, it’s last minute deals. 🙂

When did STW turn into piston heads?

Corbyn wants A customs union, not the normal one – i.e. a bespoke deal which would have to include *some* sort of FoM if not complete freedom. He’s been over to talk to the EU so I’d assume it was discussed at some level.

And come back with nothing unless you can link something to show otherewise, Molgrips.

Has Corbyn just become more believable than may though to the EU, she now has no negotiating power where’s Corbyn at least gives the impression his goalposts can be moved

Eh?

We are talking about the same bloke? The one who hasn’t changed his mind about anything since 1971?

So far Brexit has cost – £80bn & that doesn’t include all the hours people have spent on this thread…

These sorts of calculations need to taken with a pinch of salt.

First, the Guardian report is misleading in that it is implies this comes from a Bank of England report, which it doesn’t.

Second, it is attempt to calculate what would have happened, had there not been a Brexit vote which involves a fair bit of crystal ball gazing.

Third, the methodology works on the basis of creating an estimated future path based on the weighted average of what happened in a number of other economies. In this instant, I understand the US comprises 50% of weighting of that path. Whilst based on where we appeared to be in the cycle, there is good reason for this. The downside of the approach is the US growth figures are likely to be significantly enhanced by the Trump tax cut, which wouldn’t have effected the UK economy in the same way. As noted a few pages ago the UK economy has been more or less in line with the Eurozone in 2018, whilst it lagged in 2017 abit.

So even if you were to take out all the US estimate

its cost us £40bn & all our international credibility

Bargain!!!

when Johnson said F–K business he really did mean it, we’re used to the Tories saying F–k the poor, but theyve done a proper number with Brexit