EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Wasn’t “high degree of regulatory alignment” pretty much the precise form of words that Hammond was slapped down so firmly for using?

SUMMARY

Open and globalised capital markets are in the interests of both the UK and

the EU. Operating against the backdrop of a robust regulatory framework, they

promote financial stability and give businesses and consumers access to the

products and services they need. The Government has stated that the UK will

leave the EU Single Market, which allows for the free flow of financial services

across the borders of 28 Member States, when it exits the EU. It is imperative

that doing so does not undermine the benefits of participation in a globalised

financial system.

In agreeing the relationship between the UK and the EU post-Brexit, both sides

should favour an end state allowing mutual market access. Fragmentation would

lead to costs increasing and to financial stability deteriorating. The dangers of

disintegration are already apparent in proposals that envisage the possibility

of relocating the clearing activity of central counterparties (CCPs) to the EU,

and in the political rather than purely economic calculations emerging in the

broader Brexit negotiations.

Well count me reassured. Or not that just says its real bad if we mess it up

No mol, the exaggerators and scaremongers are being proved wrong so far

Our side look rather silly in hindsight with their fear predictions. – none have come close to being true.

Which is a relief

No idea but given that we have the same regulatory rules right now – many of which are global standards (unless your French and want to cheat) the whole debate on regulatory alignment is a red herring and an amusing one at that

Its deliberately so and part of their clever strat comm strategy to create division and fool the easily led. It works.

You only needed the top lines of the first two paras mike

Depends if you want context or not doesnt it.

@mike it says if the EU/UK fail to reach an agreement on financial services it could be bad for market stability. In very simple terms Europeans come to UK to borrow money and to buy and sell investments. Without easy access to London Europe will suffer, there are no tariffs on financial services just regulatory (non-tariff barriers) so its not a matter of price (eg as per UK buying goods with additional WTO tariffs or doing a free trade deal elsewhere or even just unilaterally setting tariffs lower). They can either access markets or not. Trying to relocate these markets isn’t about moving a few hundred or even thousand people it much more complicated. As Osbourne said if Europe can’t access London its likely the business will go to New York. Trying to replicate them in Europe would take a very long time and many billions of investment by European Governments in regulatory infrastructure (people and systems)

Clearly I like everyone else have not had a chance to read the draft 15 year economic forecasts which have been much in the press. As far as I can make out these forecasts are something like

Under WTO Brexit Northern Irish Economy will grow by something like 22% over 15 years. Now of course all we are reading about is “hits”, seems to me this is because these same models forecast that under “Remain in the EU” scenario they say the NI economy will grow by 34% … hence the 12% hit. Firstky these are massively discredited models having been used to forecast instant recession etc but also economic models can get 6 or 12 month forecasts right so 15 years is just total guesswork.

Under WTO Brexit Northern Irish Economy will grow by something like 22% over 15 years

Name the countries oo  wto only

More good Brexit news. Oh sorry. It’s not about money so it doesn’t count.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/08/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-wave-of-red-tape-for-uk-drivers-and-hauliers?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

<span style=”font-size: 12.8px;”>”</span>Wasn’t “high degree of regulatory alignment” pretty much the precise form of words that Hammond was slapped down so firmly for using?”

Yes.  However it what we need to solve the NI border issue and is an anathema to Davies

What a very odd mistake to make

Mikesmith – where is that from?  All it is is a list of hopes – nowt concrete not even any discussion of by what mechanisms they will achieve their hopes and Istill see no reasonat allwhy allthe work will not simply go intothe EU – far easier for the EU folk.

It’s from those lightweights in the House of Lords TJ, plus senior partners from magic circle law firms, regulators, bankers. No one important

best ignored from your perspective.

Thank you THM. And I agree that the first couple of paragraphs make sense (to someone of my limited education – neither of my degrees are financial or economic).

But – and it’s a big but (anyone channeling the Sir Mix-a-Lot?) – you could substitute the whole of Brexit in there where they talk about financial separation and the paragraphs would make equal sense.

Now Mr Davis criticised some plans, calling them “political” and “unwise”today – he wasn’t talking about Brexit but he should have been.

The UK has done something stupid with Brexit, the EU may well follow suite – why would folk suddenly stop over financial services?

Between 45-70% of EU financial services takes place in London for good reasons. No other EU centre can replicate this. Hence the comments about fragmentation..,

if the EU are stupid they may set this (fragmentation) in motion. The losers? Their corporates and household who will have a smaller pool of capital offered at a higher price. Plus if we want to be nasty we simply engage in regaulatory arbitrage.

So it won’t happen – the EU are not fools simply showmen

the increased volume of noise including today’s threats is them recognising that a hard Brexshit is really shit for them too. TM and co are doing a surprisingly good job at letting them sweat. Hopefully after today we will threaten hard ball again. Like internet bullies they should be stood up to

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Between 45-70% of EU financial services takes place in London for good reasons. No other EU centre can replicate this. Hence the comments about fragmentation..,

I seem to recall the miners, manufacturers, steel workers, ship builders etc. all having that much faith.

TM and co are doing a surprisingly good job at letting them sweat. Hopefully after today we will threaten hard ball again. Like internet bullies they should be stood up to

And like all internet hardmen/women they will bang on to their chosen audience and then bottle it when faced with actually doing something. I’m sure you understand the difference between a strong position and a weak one.

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Forgive me THM, but shifting people (particularly when many of them aren’t from London originally) and some comms links plus a few servers looks easier than shifting large factories – yet the factories shifted.

Confidence should always be tempered by consideration and anyone who says “ah this is different, it can’t happen is probably wrong”.

Probably won’t happen is different from can’t.

Yes I do thanks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42994640

So DD is doing a Trump, chief council THM and Jamby? are you 2 the crack team of grown ups who every day have to get up and wonder how your boss just **** you again.

Reading between the lines, divided cabinet, EU losing patience with all the posturing and telling the UK what happens if we continue to dick about and not deal with stuff.

Comes a moment where you realise either you didn’t read the rules or the game is rigged against you, either way it’s too late.

Considering that section of the draft agreement is obviously in reaction to DD saying one thing to the EU then refuting it when he gets home I think it is quite reasonable for the EU to want some quick way of applying sanctions if / when the tories do not uphold the agreements they have made

😀

While you’re right about DD’s duplicity… it’s nothing compared to some of the people the EU peeps can see might be in power after April Fools Day next year… the likes of Mogg will look for every opportunity to screw over our partners and break the spirit of any transition agreement. “We” can’t be trusted anymore.

Take back control….

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says

Would the mainland GB be able to trade with NI tariff free?

“Would the mainland GB be able to trade with NI tariff free?”

Only if we keep ‘full regulatory alignment’ with NI. Works for me..

There is no way on gods protestant earth the children of the Ulster plantation will accept the mainland being different from the colony …. sorry territory.

roflcopters all round here

Have our glorious leaders( or our people  in the know on here )told us how this frictionless border will work yet?

they have made plans, sensible plans, read Mays speech or the Report to the Select committee. It a there if you just google and can understand. Dont believe the reactionary remoaners. Plan to adapt or adapt the plan

Whilst he is off I will play the typing without saying anything cryptic aloof condescending role 🙄

So the EU annexes NI – no really

have Whitbread acquired The Guardisn to boost Costa sales?

Comedy Central

There is no way on gods protestant earth the children of the Ulster plantation will accept the mainland being different from the colony …. sorry territory.

It’s going to infuriate all the people you would want it to.

the gov agreed to maintain a ‘frictionless’ border

theyve still not come up for an alternative to staying in the CU/SM

of course alternate methods of broder control do exist

I was just going to mention Dave’s fleet of magic unicorns and fairy folk

Its either that or… you know… technology’n’shit, yeah?

robo unicorns?

It’s going to infuriate all the people you would want it to.

The problem with that is that Northern Ireland can get a bit Kalashnikoffy when that happens. Something that I don’t personally think anyone in government is taking remotely seriously enough

So the EU annexes NI – no really

No the UK signed up to various agreements and deals with various groups and nations, it has decided to get out of some of them. So far the UK has not come up with a solution that works and satisfies it’s ongoing obligations. The EU is simply pointing out the outcome of certain paths.

It’s as if the UK jumped straight in with no planning or though or even some basic reading.

Is there really any point talking about anything else til this is resolved?

more remoaner doom & gloom

<span style=”font-size: 12.8px;”>https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-09/greece-is-up-and-the-u-k-is-down-since-brexit-vote</span&gt;

So the EU annexes NI – no really

My lord i hope whoever pays you for your insights gets something more than ludicrous straw men for their money
then again you believe the bible so perhaps you are just easily confused in which case……forgive me 😉
IGMC