EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Somafunk, don’t worry about giving away his secret identity , he’s on here every other post.

THM – you are badly needed in cabinet to tell them what their strategy / desired endpoint to brexit is as no one else seems to know.  CBI calling for clarity, the cabinet is divided with different folk offering different visions but you and you alone know clearly what the strategy is.  THM to the rescue of May and co – your Tory party needs you

“Business leaders have warned Theresa May that “patience is wearing thin” with the government’s indecision on Brexit, as her inner cabinet comes under intense pressure to give a clearer signal about Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

On the day cabinet ministers prepared to gather for the first of two crucial meetings, the British Chambers of Commerce released a strongly-worded statement saying that “businesses need those elected to govern our country to make choices”.

The 11-member Brexit strategy subcommittee includes the chancellor and the home secretary, who would like to see the closest possible continuing relationship to the EU, and “divergers” including Michael Gove and Boris Johnson.”

Meanwhile:

Policing is a non existant

Healthcare is in crisis

Social care is a shambles

Councils are going bust

The military isnt fit for purpose

Streets are full of homeless people

Tax havens are booming

What is today’s cabinet meeting supposed to be about? What are the British Chambers of Commerce calling for the government to do this morning?

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Well, at least the forum software knows what to make of him

<span style=”color: #444444; font-size: 12px;”>What is today’s cabinet meeting supposed to be about?</span>

Its to keep them busy whilst the grownups sort things out of course. Trust THM. We are lucky to have someone so heavily involved in the negotiations to explain things in a clear and detailed manner.

😂😂😂

TJ the CBI is Remain-Central. How can May provide clarity when EU say they won’t be ready to talk about anything of substance until March? Business is getting on with their planing Govt has been quite clear it expects not much to change in March 2019 the question is what happens in 2021

As I posted before a nice clean WTO exit remains the best option imo. Focus on global trade replacing EU as source of our imports and leave thr EU well alone whilst keeping our £35-39bn. Europe couldn’t possibly replicate financial services in less than 5 years and probably more like 10 as an absolute minimum. In that time EU bureaucrats would have been replaced with more pragmatic types and  we’d get a sensible trade arrangement. The EU have far bigger problems with the euro and excessive borrowing from the periphery than anything Brexit presents

The UK position appears to involve accepting WTO most favoured nation, that respects the GFA, that allows for full alignment with the RoI.

And allows divergence, the ability to create new trade deals, whilst allowing frictionless trade.

That Relies on countries party to EU agreements simply accepting the UK continuing as prior.

Maybe i am missing something but there may be some minor issues in the UKs position,

hello – reality calling

Of course the EU can sort out financial services – it simply states the position and the banks move into the EU.  Its already happening.  This is what you said would happen if we taxed the bankers fairly – ytou said they would all move.

May is incapable of even saying what she wants because there is no aim / endpoint that will keep her party and cabinet united

i agree the EU has bigger issues – but not for the reasons you state.  Its because brexit is only a small issue to them and one they have resigned themselves to

No Jambas – WTO does not reconcile with our goals. In conflicts with them. Hence that is not what we are pursuing.

Of course as we saw last year it’s a brilliant bargaining tactic. May hints that we “may” be considering it and – BANG – the fudges in phase 1 arrive tout suite

Now the splits are also emerging within Europe and we have an event stronger trump – regulatory competition. Of course we won’t use it in full, but it will be useful in our discussions with michel and his mates

The behind the scenes fin services stuff is very interesting

TJ thanks for posting that. Often have to sit in the middle of loads of bankers and none of them agree, so always useful to be armed with your insights to tell them why they are wrong

Any recommendations on good estate agents in Paris and Frankfurt for the hordes?

Often have to sit in the middle of loads of bankers

You must feel rather at home.

Winky smiley etc.

…well, it rhymes with bankers anyway

So THM – care to let us mere mortals know what the negotiating stance / aim / desired end point is ‘cos the rest of us including the cabinet have no idea?  None of the press know this, none of the EU negotiators know , the cabinet was supposed to be meeting to make a decision on this this week but have backed out according to the press

Come on dude – we are all agog to hear what the master plan is.

Or are we to assume that actually you have zero idea?

No, when I mention what TJ says they all start laughing. It’s really rather uncomfortable. I keep repeating the lines and how 000s of their colleagues have already gone and why all the activities are off overseas – nah, they are on the floor at this stage

they keep throwing out fancy words like passporting and equivalence and how funny things like MIFID and CRD are treated differently in these cases and why it matters. They laugh loudest when old Michel tries to pretend that there might be no equivalence!!!

If only I had TJ by my side here instead of on the forum, to explain why they are so wrong it might be less painful

how do you do your winkies in the new forum?

So its clear then- you really are clueless on this.  All mouth and trousers  what a surprise

You claim you know what the tories position is but refuse to share it with is.  shows the value of your posts – zero.

“U.K. banks will have limited access to the European Union’s single market after Brexit if the government refuses to weaken its red lines, the European Commission told diplomats, according to two people familiar with private discussions in Brussels.

While the British government is aiming for a wide-ranging agreement to give financial institutions full EU access, a restricted approach similar to that which Canada enjoys is the only viable option, Commission officials said in a presentation to representatives of the 27 remaining nations on Tuesday. That position is in line with the stance expressed earlier this month by chief negotiator Michel Barnier. The Commission has completely ruled out full passporting rights, which would allow U.K. to sell services freely in the single market, the people said.”

Financial-services companies in London aren’t waiting around to see how the negotiations pan out. They have led the way in contingency planning and leasing office space on the continent so they can continue to operate as they do currently — whatever happens between now and exit day in March 2019.

The inclusion of financial services in the U.K.’s post-Brexit arrangement with the EU has become one of the most contentious areas. European officials say that Britain’s red lines — such as ending the free movement of workers from the EU — make it impossible for them to allow British banks the same kind of access they get now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/eu-is-said-to-refuse-to-budge-on-post-brexit-financial-services</span&gt;

The European Commission has dealt a blow to City firms seeking unfettered access to its trading bloc after Brexit, as time runs out to secure a deal and avoid a significant relocation of staff and businesses.

Thomson Reuters has reported that senior British financiers have been told by Brussels officials that a plan, conceived by a group of financial law specialists known as the international regulatory group has been rejected

<span style=”font-size: 12.8px;”>https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/brussels-rejects-citys-plan-for-post-brexit-access-20180131</span&gt;

Ah, the confidence of laughing bankers. Always a reliable metric of the actual health of our financial system.

Cheers TJ – your quotes once again support what I am saying

We know that the EU will try to rule out passporting – even if that harms them – so we end up debating what form of equivalence regime will be in place. The catastrophic one that you try to convince us about and the other alternatives that the banks are currently preparing for.

You are correct in agreeing with me that banks are preparing for all contingencies including which resources they will have to relocate if we end up with equivalence. It goes well beyond your quotes though because with two exceptions UK banks were prepared for this legally a long time ago.

Smart guys those bankers so bloody odd that the French banks are actually re-investing in London at the moment. Are they not as smart as you? Do they not get it?

Getting away from the purely financial….

The Home Office has postponed publishing their proposed policy on immigration and freedom of movement until ‘after a transition deal was agreed’. It was meant to be published last summer

What does everyone think about that?

I can’t work out whereto this suggests

A) They are going to concede on freedom of movement but can’t say so as that would cause Brexiteers heads to explode

B) They are going to totally reject freedom of movement, and go for some kind of ‘Guest Worker’ status, but can’t say so as that would cause the EU’s heads to explode, and tell us to **** right off, resulting in crashing out/no deal

C) They haven’t got a clue what their policy actually is, as whatever they do all hells going to break loose, so they’re hiding under their desks to avoid making a decision?

I suspect it’s C

So going back to Hurty’s ‘Prepare for every option’ business principle, how does any industry presently dependent on migrant labour plan for their future not only not having a clue what future policy will be, but knowing that they’ll not be knowing any time soon?

An absolute farce!

Keep kicking the can down the street… and know that will be reported as EU “delaying tactics” when people ask awkward questions.

As yet no one can tell me how much extra a kilo of chocolate will cost.

Obviously the experts are too busy sorting out the big stuff.

Note THM continues to avoid the question.

Just had a horrible thought… what if May&Davies both just intend to carry the can past the April Fool deadline next year… we’re out of the EU but with a time limited period agreed where we’re still operating inside the SM & CU… and then just fopp off! Leaving us with just a constructively ambiguous outline of what we are replacing membership of the EU with… and an almighty political bun fight inside, and between, political parties about what happens next… legislation allows the government to put a deal off ’till after we’ve left, with no vote required, in parliament or UK wide…

I’m pretty sure that’s what’s going to happen, but I think calling it intentional is probably giving them too much credit.

TJ you started to answer it for me. Progress  – you nailed Canada plus, plus

Tariffs?

ECJ?

shall we put JRM in his box together? You know you want to

Binners – they will fudge it. Inmigration is positive for the UK economy. It will continue.

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TJ you started to answer it for me. Progress

Where as you have completely failed to back up anything with a source or any kind of actual document. Have a gold star.

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Problem with fudging it is the bit where the Brexit loonies get a vote and stick the boot into the PM. Remind me again how many votes she has to play with?

<span style=”color: #444444; font-size: 12px; background-color: #eeeeee;”>Inmigration is positive for the UK economy. It will continue.</span>

Considering how immigration seems to have been a factor in at least a substantial minority voting out thats a tad undemocratic dont you think?

I would have thought a fine defender of democracy such as yourself would be taking to the streets to try and ensure that those peoples democratic views should be upheld.

EU membership is good for the UK economy (and broader society). It will continue.

Nah, just get on with it. Hired and Italian and a Pakistani in past two months, so covering all bases

a bit of paperwork aggro with the latter but nothing too difficult

‘EU membership is good for the UK economy (and broader society). It will continue.’

yep. we were only half in, we’ll be only half out. assuming article 50 doesn’t get revoked of course…

It’s good that us Brits are patient folk…

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-wont-agree-a-brexit-plan-this-week/amp/

Ministers on May’s Cabinet sub-committee on Brexit are set to meet on Wednesday and Thursday to start thrashing out a united position on the final “end state” they want to negotiate with the EU. While this week’s meetings have been portrayed in the press as a make or break moment, those on the inside insist this is not being viewed as “decision week” internally.

<span style=”font-size: 12.8px;”>Theresa May’s Brexit “war cabinet” of senior ministers is to thrash out the thorniest issues for Britain’s future relationship with the EU at a crunch meeting.</span>

<span style=”font-size: 12.8px;”>The prime minister and key cabinet ministers on different sides of the Brexit debate, including the chancellor, Philip Hammond, the home secretary, Amber Rudd, the environment secretary, Michael Gove, and the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, will begin drawing up the government’s position on the “end state” for the UK’s relationship with the EU after the transition period.</span>

from the grauniad

So more proof that THMs postion is utter nonsense.  there is no agreed aim / endpoint and there is huge division in cabinet.

“No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy” seems worth considering at this point.

My position??? Only yesterday you stated that DD and PH saw eye to eye on Canada plus. You even provided the quote to prove it.

You “Tory”you 😉

The idea that the cabinet could actually reach agreement in a mere 2 days, having not done so over the past year, is beyond risible.

What they might be able to do with their excellent PPE degrees in sophistry from Oxford, is find a choice of words that avoids having to actually reach meaningful agreement while each one pretending they’ve signed up to whatever they happen to prefer.

<span style=”color: #444444; font-size: 12px; background-color: #eeeeee;”>a bit of paperwork aggro with the latter but nothing too difficult</span>

Interesting but I am more curious about what you feel about the democratic implications. Since you are such a keen defender of democracy I would have thought any suggestion of fudging around a key issue in the debate would concern you.