Brexit 2020+

Its the reason the city in the UK is so successful.

Oh my god. Funny.

Ok one of

its clear iScotland will just smoothly go back into the EU

It’s far from clear. That might be the wish of a lot of people but there are an awful lot of things that have to be put in place before that can happen.

Ok one of

Fairy snuff.

It’s far from clear.

True. A Norway type arrangement might be more likely. Either way, it’s going to be a tough 20 years ahead for the Union, given the carrot of increased cooperation with 30+ countries and the stick of being told to stay in your place by one country.

Why do you think it not clear Del?

iScotland would be completely compliant with EU law, it would be a net contributor, it has most of the EUs oil and fishing and the EU would love to do it to stick two fingers up at the rUK – and there has been some back channel discussions which give a good indication that this is how it would go.

I think all eyes are on Northern Ireland… they have a legal right to self determination, no mater what the UK government wants, and that isn’t as clear cut for Scotland… and they have the easiest possible route back into the EU via unification. If they take that path, they’ll be no stopping Scotland breaking away as well. Sadly (for us south of the border).

More on the success of the City

Alot of its success is based on location, time zone and language. Brexit does not change those things. It creates 1/4 of UK GDP.

It creates 1/4 of UK GDP.

Probably wise to have kept that in mind before voting for Brexit, but hey ho.

Are you telling me the language used in finance is going to change to French/ German?

No

What is going to happen and is already happening is trade in euros of various sorts can only be done under EU regulation and thus the institutions have to move into the EU. They tried just setting up shells in the EU and this was not enough – they have to move the entirety of the euro trading operations because the EU legally require this trade to be under EU law

This is from a year ago. The situation now is much more damaging

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-city-of-london-jobs-financial-services-banking-impact-a8975711.html

City financial firms have so far committed to move at least 7,000 jobs and £1 trillion of assets out of the UK to prepare for Brexit, with the true cost likely to be higher, research has found.

Brexit has also cost firms £4bn as they have moved staff, taken out legal advice and implemented contingency plans, accounting and consultancy firm EY found.

The sum includes £2.6bn to build up a presence in other financial centres such as Frankfurt, Dublin and Paris to ensure smooth operation of services after Brexit.

EY said that the true impact was likely to be greater because just 13 of the 222 firms it monitors have put a figure on the direct financial impact of Brexit.

Many companies in Britain’s lucrative financial services sector appear reluctant to make the final decision to move “until they absolutely have to”, EY said.

iScotland would be completely compliant with EU law, it would be a net contributor, it has most of the EUs oil and fishing and the EU would love to do it to stick two fingers up at the rUK – and there has been some back channel discussions which give a good indication that this is how it would go

It would have to achieve independence first, for a start, and that is within the gift of Westminster. I’m afraid the other points you raise are worthy of debate but everything hinges on gaining independence first. If Scotland is so viable as a nation state the UK would be hatstand to let it out of its clutches. It would simply be worth too much to let go.
Reunification of Ireland I can see. The Irish sea border all but does it.

Del – thats a point that has not been tested in court – and under UN law self determination of a people? Eritrea used that route to gain its independence as did Kosovo IIRC

If as I expect that the pro independence parties get a significant majority in Holyrood on a platform of “independence now”the case becomes unanswerable so if westminster refuses permission and the courts back that then UDI becomes an option.

We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.

If SNP get a landslide in May then Johnson would find it very hard not to allow a vote

Sturgeon is keeping her powder dry on that one
A no deal Brexit would be the best gift she could get in that regard

-Part of the reason Johnson will fold at the last minute & throw the fishing industry u Der the bus, of course sturgeon could use that too, & it would be game over for the Tories there, especially the coastal ones!

Yup – ‘cos an independent scotland in the EU would have far more power than it has now and would retain all the advantages of being in the EU

Also the EU is a force for good. The UK does nothing but hold scotland back

We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.

We don’t want to be dragged into the Brexit shitshow you tossers started, so we will happily get out of something for the good of our population (who didn’t vote for it).

FTFY.

Wonder if I could get dual nationality then? Would certainly make some things easier.

We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.

I’m not happy about it but I see it as an inevitable consequence of brexit

The Tories specifically said that a No to indy was a vote to remain in the EU & that they would not get another chance unless something fundamental changes in the UK

They can’t keep lying to people & expect it to be consequence free!

Similar to NI, Johnson explicitly promised no customs checks in Irish Sea

dishonesty has consequences

^^^

I should add that I have the misfortune (and I really do mean it in this regard) to be a born and bred Englishman.

akira – its not completely clear how nationality would work but IIRC its the people who live here plus those with a close connection to scotland. Would dual nationality be allowed? ~Some countries do some do not but if I had to bet Scotland would allow it but England would not.

My mum’s from Glasgow so it’s the best hope of getting EU citizenship back for me & my kids, at the moment
Which is a sone consolation.

Would dual nationality be allowed?

What if you’re an Englishman, living in Scotland with dual Indian nationality through birth?🤔

Asking for a friend. 🤪

well firstly he would not be an englishman – he would be an anglo-indian 🙂

Everyone living here Matt – thats clear. What is not so clear is what about the diaspora

Dougie’s Brevidential groupthink ESP:

We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.

Really? Two can play at that game:

I wanted to leave the EU so badly that it didn’t matter to me that it would risk destabilising and breaking up our sovereign country. I’ll now project these feelings onto those who chose to remain random mountain bikers. In fact I’ll paint them as positively gleeful

(PS My guessing correctly doesn’t automatically grant you the same success)

But getting back to the actual Brevidence. What have you got?

Everyone living here Matt – thats clear. What is not so clear is what about the diaspora

You and I both – hey, I’m even on the GlobalScot network and three sons who put ‘Scottish – white’ on forms these days 😎

It seems more a South of the border thing to try to differentiate more. I’ve family and friends who don’t seem to get the inclusivity and extent of ‘Scottish’.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/letters/independence-state-we-cant-afford-letters-2612296

Born in Glasgow so would be fine from that point of view, kids born in England but two Scottish parents so should be okay. Yeah guess it would be in Scotland’s interest to allow it and Johnson would no doubt be a bawbag and make sure anyone living in England suffers as much as possible.

Scotsman article may well be true (and objectively it probably is) BUT all SNP will have to do is run a similar campaign to Leave EU.
You’d just need to throw in a few re-runs of Braveheart and job done.
Any Scottish independence campaign (like Brexit) would just need to appeal to the heart not the head.
However I don’t even think Dom/Boris is stupid enough to put an independence referendum on table so suspect it is a moot point…

We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.

Personally, I don’t want the UK to split up… one of the many reasons I voted against Brexit. If I lived on your side of the sea, the choice would have been even simpler. How anyone in Northern Ireland could vote for Brexit is far more baffling to me than someone living in Yorkshire doing so… I have no idea what you expect to gain from it over there, especially if you value your ties to the rest of the UK.

We dont want Brexit but we will happily see the UK split up.

Not equivalent. Leaving a club vs leaving an abusive partner.

I am English living in Scotland and I was against independence previously but it’s really unfair for Scotland to be dragged into this shitshow in a bin fire.

How anyone in Northern Ireland could vote for Brexit is far more baffling to me than someone living in Yorkshire doing so… I have no idea what you expect to gain from it over there, especially if you value your ties to the rest of the UK.

It’s difficult to find any logic with the whole issue of Brexit, but if you were to find any it most certainly won’t be in the bizarre, sectarian world of Northern Irish politics.

The very fact that the DUP were blind to the fact that they were ultimately to be thrown under the bus being a prime example. Everyone else saw that one coming a mile off. Boris correctly sussed out that if you paint a Union Jack on something, the DUP will vote for it

How anyone in Northern Ireland could vote for Brexit is far more baffling to me than someone living in Yorkshire doing so

Always trying to be more British than the British.

Going to bite DUP et al on the arse now.

I’m sure the irony is totally lost on them that they’ve done more to bring about a united Ireland than sinn féin and the IRA ever managed

Scotsman article may well be true (and objectively it probably is) BUT all SNP will have to do is run a similar campaign to Leave EU.

a brexiter saying that scotland shouldnt leave because it would harm their economy is surely the height of irony?

Brexit will cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together.

Didn’t we pass this point sometime last year?

dishonesty has consequences

Except it demonstrably hasn’t thus far.

Riddle me this.

If WTO is so great, why do so many nations strive to make deals to get away from it?

The SNP are not the totallity of the independence movement and what we saw last time was a reverse of the brexit referendum with the remain side with all the project fear nonsense and the independence side being mainly factual based.

there are those in the broader independence movement far more radical than the SNP who after all are a leftish social democratic party.

dougie – whats that letter in the scotmans supposed to prove?

any successful independence campaign needs to appeal to the heart AND the head. Again if you were not here last time you really don’t understand the depth of the debate. Only around 30% of the population are what I call “ideological” nationalists who would accept independence at any price. 1/3 are unionists of no shifting. its the group in the middle that needs to be convinced. Scotland poor economic performance however cuts both ways – would we grow faster with our own policies designed for scotland? simple things like being able to fund renewables better from borrowing could produce a whole new raft of industry. Is it englands policies that hold us back?

Just the other day i was talking to a card carrying tory who actually has stood as a candidate and who now supports independence. Its become that much a no brainer.

Current polling for Holyrood, would give an 8.5% swing to the SNP, giving them & greens 69 seats vs 60 seats for the non-indy parties
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2016s&cSNP=55&cLAB=15&cCON=20&cLD=6&rSNP=50&rCON=18&rLAB=15&rGRN=8&rLD=6&rUKIP=0&rBREX=0#Scotland

If you want to see how unpopular Brexit & Johnson are

look at the westminster voting intention:

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

only 1 seat doesnt go to SNP!

I think what will be crucial will be how Johnson (Cummings/Gove) play the devolved governments in their internal market paper

If Johnson wants to strike new trade deals, he will have to keep devolved government on side or they could scupper it big time as they have devolved powers of food labeling, safety etc

If hes is too heavy handed with his internal market white paper in the autumn Sturgeon will have another stick to beat the government with, Johnson already forced thru the WA without the consent of the devolved governments

there is a thread for this even if the 2 things are inextricably linked

What is said:

Gets some facts on your side, understand the implications and then engage.

vs what is heard: